Group 1 - Lennar reported quarterly earnings of $2 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.12 per share, and down from $3.9 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -5.66% [1] - The company posted revenues of $8.81 billion for the quarter ended August 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.49%, and down from $9.42 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Lennar has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Group 2 - The stock has lost about 2.5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 12.2% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $2.80 on revenues of $10.25 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $9.04 on revenues of $35.2 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Building Products - Home Builders is currently in the bottom 7% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential underperformance compared to higher-ranked industries [8] Group 3 - The estimate revisions trend for Lennar was mixed ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] - KB Home, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.50 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -26.5% [9]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. operates in a challenging housing market characterized by affordability constraints, changing buyer preferences, and fluctuating mortgage rates, focusing on price discipline and operational efficiency to maintain profitability [1] - The company faces softened demand, raising concerns about achieving its fiscal 2025 earnings target of $13.75 per share, a decrease from $13.82 reported in fiscal 2024 [1][10] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 of fiscal 2025, home deliveries increased by 5% year-over-year, and revenues grew by 6%, driven by higher average selling prices, with delivered homes averaging $974,000 [2] - However, net signed contracts decreased by 4% year-over-year in units, and backlog units fell by 19%, with potential revenues declining by 10% [2] - Despite lower volumes, the average backlog price rose to $1.161 million from $1.044 million a year earlier, indicating resilience among affluent buyers [2] Group 2: Profitability Metrics - Gross margin contracted by 130 basis points year-over-year to 27.5%, attributed to higher incentives and product mix, while SG&A expenses improved by 20 basis points to 8.8% of revenues due to tighter cost control [3] - The company benefits from a high-value backlog and efficiency gains, providing flexibility to defend profitability despite declining volumes [4] Group 3: Industry Context - The broader homebuilding industry is experiencing slower sales volumes, with competitors like Lennar Corporation and D.R. Horton, Inc. also facing growth challenges due to ongoing affordability issues [5] - Lennar's gross margins fell to 18% from 22.5% year-over-year, while D.R. Horton reported that 81% of buyers utilized incentive programs, impacting profitability [6][7] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Toll Brothers' shares have increased by 32.2% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry and the S&P 500 [8] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 10.24, lower than the industry average of 12.91 [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Toll Brothers' 2025 earnings per share has decreased to $13.82 from $13.95 over the past 30 days, indicating a 7.9% decline from the previous year's profit level [15]

Core Insights - D.R. Horton, Inc. reported a fiscal Q3 2025 EPS of $3.36, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.90, despite a 7% year-over-year revenue decline to $9.2 billion, showcasing its resilience amid affordability challenges and competitive pressures [1][9] - The company expanded its community count by 12% year-over-year, reaching 126 markets across 36 states, positioning itself to capture additional demand, particularly in secondary markets [1][9] - Competition is intensifying, with rivals like Lennar and PulteGroup increasing incentives, which may pressure Horton's margins and market share [2][4] Financial Performance - D.R. Horton achieved a gross margin of 21.8% in Q3 2025, outperforming guidance, and closed over 23,000 homes during the quarter [1] - The company maintains a strong capital position with $5.5 billion in liquidity and a share buyback program that reduced its share count by 9% year-over-year, providing financial flexibility [3] Competitive Landscape - Rivals such as Lennar and PulteGroup are aggressively pursuing market share, with Lennar focusing on digital platforms and land-light strategies, while PulteGroup targets lifestyle-driven buyers in high-growth regions [4][5] - Both competitors are enhancing their operational scale and strategic use of incentives, which adds pressure on D.R. Horton to balance pricing and maintain its market share [6] Stock Performance - D.R. Horton’s stock has increased by 47% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Building Products-Home Builders industry, the broader Zacks Construction sector, and the S&P 500 index [7] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 15.04, indicating a premium compared to industry peers [10]

Core Viewpoint - Toll Brothers, Inc. has experienced a significant stock rally, outperforming both its peers and the broader market, driven by strong fundamentals in the luxury homebuilding segment and effective operational strategies [1][5][21] Performance Overview - The stock has risen 29.3% over the past three months, exceeding the gains of the Zacks Building Products – Home Builders industry (27.9%), the Zacks Construction sector (11.3%), and the S&P 500 (8.6%) [1] - As of September 9, 2025, the stock price is $144.82, which is 14.6% below its 52-week high of $169.52 but represents a 67.1% premium to its 52-week low of $86.67 [2] Technical Analysis - The stock's current price is above both its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $127.43 and its 200-day SMA of $120.02, indicating a bullish trend [3] - Recent trading volume has been strong, with over 2.3 million shares traded, suggesting institutional interest [3] Driving Factors - Toll Brothers has a strong position in the luxury homebuilding market, with an average selling price (ASP) of $974,000 and a backlog averaging $1.16 million per home, indicating customer willingness to pay premiums [6][7] - The company has a robust land pipeline with 76,800 lots, 57% of which are controlled, and plans to increase its community count from 420 to 440-450 by year-end [7] - A balanced approach of 50% spec homes and 50% build-to-order homes has provided strategic flexibility and contributed to an adjusted gross margin of 27.5% in Q3 [8][9] Financial Strength - Toll Brothers ended Q3 with $852 million in cash and a net debt-to-capital ratio of 19.3%, highlighting its strong financial position [10] - The company returned $226 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks and plans to repurchase $600 million of stock in fiscal 2025 [10] Challenges - Despite record revenues, net contracts fell 4% year-over-year, indicating a softer housing market [11] - Incentives for new contracts have increased to an average of 8%, reflecting pressure on margins [13] - Gross margins have decreased from 28.8% to 27.5%, influenced by higher incentives and market pressures [14] Market Conditions - Elevated mortgage rates around 6.5% continue to constrain affordability for many buyers, impacting sales decisions [16] - Broader economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures may affect consumer sentiment and demand [16] Valuation - Toll Brothers is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 10.34X, below the industry average of 13.35X, suggesting it is undervalued relative to peers [18][19] - The stock's current pricing indicates potential for upside if fundamentals remain strong [18] Conclusion - Toll Brothers has shown strong performance driven by luxury market strength and operational efficiency, but faces challenges from softer sales volumes and margin pressures [21] - The company remains a stable investment within the homebuilder sector, with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), and should be monitored for future demand trends [21]

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Core Insights - D.R. Horton, Inc. is leveraging its diversified operating model to navigate housing market fluctuations, reporting a 7.4% year-over-year decline in revenues to $9.23 billion for Q3 fiscal 2025, while earnings per share of $3.36 exceeded expectations, highlighting the company's resilience [1][10] Homebuilding and Complementary Segments - The core homebuilding business remains the primary driver, but management is increasingly focusing on complementary segments for stability, with rental operations generating $55 million in pretax income and lot development arm Forestar contributing $44 million on $391 million in revenues [2] - DHI Mortgage financed 81% of closings, enhancing integration across the buyer journey, which helps mitigate risks associated with affordability pressures and fluctuating demand [2] Strategic Focus and Financial Health - The company emphasizes capital efficiency and inventory discipline, achieving a two-week improvement in cycle times from the previous year, with 66% of Q3 fiscal 2025 closings occurring on lots developed by Forestar or third parties, reducing capital intensity [3] - D.R. Horton maintains a strong balance sheet with $5.5 billion in liquidity and a leverage ratio of around 23%, enabling aggressive share repurchases and dividends, thus diversifying shareholder returns [3] Market Challenges and Competitive Landscape - Despite the strengths, challenges persist, including rising incentives, pressure on gross margins, and affordability constraints affecting consumer sentiment [4] - Competitors like Lennar Corporation and PulteGroup are also navigating similar housing cycles, with Lennar focusing on financial services and technology-driven platforms, while PulteGroup targets diverse customer segments [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - D.R. Horton's stock has increased by 40.2% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry, the broader Zacks Construction sector, and the S&P 500 index [8][10] - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 14.32, which is above its peers, indicating a premium valuation [13]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is adapting its operating strategy to address challenges in the housing market, focusing on a mix of speculative construction and build-to-order homes to navigate affordability issues and changing buyer preferences [1][3] Group 1: Strategic Shift - Historically, Toll Brothers built only 10-15% of homes on a speculative basis, but this has increased to approximately 50% today, reflecting a shift in consumer demand, particularly from affluent millennials [2][9] - The company's speculative homes are designed with personalization options, combining efficiency with the luxury experience that defines its brand [2][3] Group 2: Operational Advantages - The increase in speculative homes allows Toll Brothers to reduce construction cycle times, enhance capital efficiency, and respond quickly to market demand, with 3,200 spec homes in process and 1,800 permits ready as of Q3 fiscal 2025 [3][4] - Build-to-order homes remain essential for maintaining margins, with some achieving margins over 30% [3][4] Group 3: Market Positioning - A sustainable mix of 40-60% speculative homes is anticipated, providing resilience in uncertain markets, with luxury average selling prices (ASPs) exceeding $1 million and a backlog priced at $1.16 million [4] - Compared to competitors like Lennar Corporation and D.R. Horton, Toll Brothers targets the luxury niche, where its curated spec homes complement traditional build-to-order offerings [5][6] Group 4: Financial Performance - Toll Brothers' shares have increased by 29.6% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry and the broader S&P 500 [7] - The 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate has decreased to $13.86 from $13.95, with projected revenue growth of 0.2% [9][12] - The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for TOL is currently 9.95, lower than the industry average of 12.44 [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - Toll Brothers has experienced a significant stock rebound, driven by a strong performance in the luxury housing market and a less interest-sensitive affluent customer base [1][2]. Financial Performance - Toll Brothers reported record Q3 sales of $2.94 billion, surpassing estimates of $2.85 billion, and reflecting an 8% increase from $2.72 billion a year ago [4]. - Q3 earnings per share (EPS) were $3.73, up from $3.60 in the same quarter last year, exceeding expectations of $3.59 by nearly 4% [4]. - The company delivered 2,959 homes at an average price of $974,000, achieving an adjusted gross margin of 27.5% [6]. Market Position and Strategy - Despite a softer overall housing market, Toll Brothers attributes its strong results to a balanced operating model and a diversified luxury business strategy that prioritizes price and margin over sales pace [5]. - The company signed 2,388 net contracts worth $2.4 billion during Q3, resulting in a total backlog of 5,492 homes valued at $6.37 billion, with an average sales price of $1.16 million [7]. Guidance and Future Outlook - Toll Brothers expects to deliver approximately 11,200 homes for the full year, at the lower end of its previous guidance range [7]. - The company maintained its full-year adjusted gross margin forecast at 27.25% and expects other income from unconsolidated entities and land sales gross profit of $110 million [8]. Valuation Metrics - TOL shares trade at 9.4X forward earnings, which is below the Zacks Building Products-Home Builders Industry average of 12.4X, indicating a potential investment opportunity [9]. - The stock is also trading well under the preferred level of less than 2X sales [9]. Dividend Information - Toll Brothers has increased its dividend for five consecutive years, with an annualized growth rate of 16.31% [11]. - The current annual yield is 0.76%, which is below the S&P 500 average of 1.16%, but the 7% payout ratio suggests room for future increases [11]. Overall Assessment - Toll Brothers appears well-positioned to navigate the housing market slowdown due to its luxury clientele, although it faces challenges in a tougher operating environment [12].

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. is scheduled to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 19, 2025, with a focus on maintaining strong margins and steady deliveries in a challenging housing market [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a record fiscal second quarter with earnings per share of $3.50, exceeding estimates by 22.4% and showing a year-over-year increase of 3.6% [2] - Revenue for the second quarter was $2.74 billion, surpassing consensus by 9.5% and reflecting a 2.3% year-over-year growth [2] - Home deliveries totaled 2,899 units at an average price of $934,000, with a gross margin of 27.5% and SG&A expenses at 9.5% of sales, both exceeding guidance [2] - Despite a 13% decline in net signed contracts due to economic uncertainty, the backlog remains strong at $6.84 billion [2] Future Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal third-quarter earnings per share is $3.59, indicating a slight decline from the previous year's EPS of $3.60 [4] - Revenue for the third quarter is estimated at $2.85 billion, suggesting a 4.6% year-over-year increase [4] - For fiscal 2025, revenues are expected to increase by 0.8%, while the bottom line is projected to decline by 7.1% [5] Guidance for Q3 2025 - Toll Brothers anticipates home deliveries between 2,800 and 3,000 units at an average selling price of $965,000 to $985,000 [7] - The company expects adjusted gross margin to be 27.25%, slightly below the previous year's margin of 28.8% [8] - SG&A expenses are projected to be 9.2% of home sales revenue, up from 9% in the same quarter last year [9] Market Position and Customer Base - The company serves a financially resilient customer base, with over 70% of its business targeting move-up and empty-nester segments [10] - More than 24% of buyers in the second quarter paid in cash, with an average loan-to-value ratio of 70% [10] - Toll Brothers operates in over 60 markets across 24 states, offering a diverse range of homes priced from $300,000 to over $5 million [11] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges such as declining consumer confidence, with net signed contracts down significantly year-over-year [12] - Increased incentives to support sales may pressure margins, with current incentives at about 7% of the average selling price [12] - The need to sell and close 1,900 spec homes in the second half of the year poses a risk to meeting delivery guidance [12] Stock Performance and Valuation - Toll Brothers stock has risen 23% over the past three months, outperforming some peers in the homebuilding industry [16] - The stock is currently trading at a discount to its industry in terms of forward price/earnings ratios [20] - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a hold recommendation, with limited near-term upside due to current earnings estimates [15][23]

Home builders sentiment pulling back in August as elevated mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic, ongoing supply side challenges, all weighing on the market. This comes as Warren Buffett's Bergkshire Hathaway increased its exposure to the sector last week. It did add shares of LAR.It initiated a stake as well in Dr. . Horton. Wed Bush analyst Jay McCandal joins us now.He's got his outlook for the sector. We also got some sentiment numbers at the top of the hour. Jay, despite what was a fall in mortgage rates, ...