Core Insights - CME Group reported an all-time monthly average daily volume (ADV) record of 35.9 million contracts in April 2025, representing a 36% increase year-over-year [1][2][3] Volume Growth by Product - Interest rate ADV grew 46% to 18.4 million contracts in April 2025 [2][4] - Equity index products reached a record monthly ADV of 9.7 million contracts [2][4] - Metals products also set a new record with an ADV of 1 million contracts [2][4] - SOFR futures achieved a monthly volume record of 6 million contracts [2] - Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures reached 2.3 million contracts, while Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures hit 2 million contracts [2] - U.S. Treasury options recorded an ADV of 1.8 million contracts [2] International Volume Performance - International ADV reached 10.9 million contracts for the first time, driven by record EMEA ADV of 7.8 million contracts, Asia ADV of 2.6 million contracts, and Latin American ADV of 235,000 contracts [3] Detailed Product Highlights - Energy ADV was 3.3 million contracts, with WTI Crude Oil futures increasing 29% to 1.3 million contracts [4] - Agricultural ADV was 2.1 million contracts, with corn futures increasing 18% to 514,000 contracts [4] - Foreign Exchange ADV reached 1.3 million contracts, with Japanese Yen futures increasing 43% to 243,000 contracts [4] - Cryptocurrency ADV surged 129%, with Micro Bitcoin futures increasing 115% to 78,000 contracts [4] Additional Market Statistics - BrokerTec U.S. Repo average daily notional value (ADNV) increased 28% to a record $378 billion [7] - EBS Spot FX ADNV increased 46% to $89.3 billion [7] - Customer average collateral balances for cash collateral were $78.6 billion and for non-cash collateral were $173.7 billion [7]

Core Viewpoint - Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported strong first-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.72, exceeding estimates and reflecting a 16.2% year-over-year increase [1][11] Financial Performance - Net revenues reached a record $2.5 billion, up 11.7% year over year, surpassing estimates by 0.5% [2] - Total operating expenses increased by 2% year over year to $1.3 billion, driven by higher compensation, acquisition costs, and occupancy expenses [2] - Adjusted operating income rose 11% year over year to $1.5 billion, with an adjusted operating margin expanding by 200 basis points to 61% [3] Segment Performance - Exchanges segment net revenues were $1.4 billion, up 12% year over year, with adjusted operating income of $1 billion, reflecting a 12.8% increase [4] - Fixed Income and Data Services revenues were $596 million, a 5% increase year over year, with adjusted operating income rising 5.4% to $273 million [5] - Mortgage Technology revenues increased by 2% to $510 million, with adjusted operating income up 9.7% to $203 million [6] Financial Update - As of March 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were approximately $2 billion, a 1.6% increase from the end of 2024, while long-term debt rose to $17.3 billion [7] - Total equity was $28 billion, up 1.2% from the end of 2024, with operating cash flow at $966 million, down 4.3% year over year [7] Guidance and Shareholder Returns - For the second quarter of 2025, GAAP operating expenses are expected to be between $1.23 billion and $1.24 billion, with adjusted operating expenses projected between $980 million and $990 million [9] - ICE repurchased $241 million of its common stock and paid $278 million in dividends in the first quarter, with a dividend of 48 cents per share approved for the second quarter [10]

Financial Performance Highlights - ICE achieved record net revenues of $2473 million, an increase of 8% compared to $2290 million in 1Q24[6] - The company reported record adjusted operating income of $1509 million, up 11% from $1360 million in 1Q24[6] - Adjusted diluted EPS reached a record $172, a 16% increase compared to $148 in 1Q24[6] - ICE returned $519 million to shareholders, including $241 million in share repurchases during the quarter[8] Segment Performance - Exchanges segment net revenues totaled $1367 million, a 12% increase from $1223 million in 1Q24, with transaction revenues up 15%[9] - Energy revenues within the Exchanges segment increased by 23% to $557 million compared to $457 million in 1Q24[9, 19] - Fixed Income & Data Services revenues grew by 5% to $596 million, compared to $568 million in 1Q24, with Fixed Income Execution up 16%[12] - Mortgage Technology segment revenues increased by 2% to $510 million, compared to $499 million in 1Q24, with Closing Solutions revenues up 9%[15] Financial Position - The company's leverage ratio ended 1Q25 at approximately 32x[8] - Unrestricted cash stood at $783 million[42] - Total debt amounted to $203 billion[42]

Group 1 - CME Group is initiated with a Strong Buy rating and a price target of $332.96, highlighting its position as a global leader in futures and options trading [1] - The company operates in an institutionalized arena where trillions in futures and options are traded, routed, and cleared daily, emphasizing its critical role in the financial markets [1] - Moretus Research focuses on identifying companies with durable business models and mispriced cash flow potential, applying a structured framework for investment analysis [1] Group 2 - Moretus Research combines rigorous fundamental analysis with a judgment-driven process, aiming to provide clarity and actionable insights for serious investors [1] - The research emphasizes comparability, simplicity, and relevance in valuation, tailored to each company's business model and capital structure [1] - The coverage tends to favor underappreciated companies undergoing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can lead to asymmetric returns [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong growth in revenue, earnings, and free cash flow as key investment criteria [1] - It highlights a preference for companies with excellent growth prospects and favorable valuations, particularly those with high free cash flow margins, dividend stocks, and generous share repurchase programs [1] Summary by Categories Company Characteristics - Companies that demonstrate consistent growth in revenue, earnings, and free cash flow are prioritized for investment [1] - A focus on companies with strong growth prospects is essential for long-term investment success [1] - Favorable valuations are a critical factor in selecting stocks for investment [1] Investment Preferences - Preference is given to steadily growing companies that maintain high free cash flow margins [1] - Dividend-paying stocks are favored as they provide a steady income stream [1] - Companies with generous share repurchase programs are also considered attractive investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with expected revenues of $2.46 billion, reflecting a 7.4% year-over-year growth, and earnings per share estimated at $1.70, indicating a 14.8% increase from the previous year [1][2]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ICE's first-quarter revenues is $2.46 billion, which represents a 7.4% growth compared to the same period last year [1]. - The Fixed Income and Data Services segment is projected to generate revenues of $603 million, while an internal estimate suggests $618.9 million [5]. - The Data and Connectivity Services revenues are expected to rebound to between $240 million and $245 million, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at $1.9 billion [6]. - The Mortgage Technology segment's revenues are estimated at $512 million, with an internal estimate of $541.3 million [7]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $1.70, which has increased by 2.4% over the past 30 days [2]. - ICE has an Earnings ESP of +0.51%, indicating a favorable outlook for an earnings beat [3]. Factors Influencing Performance - Strong trends in fixed-income data and analytics, along with growth in other data and network services, are expected to positively impact ICE's first-quarter performance [4]. - The Exchange segment is likely to benefit from a high retention rate of existing customers, new customer additions, and increased trading activity in U.S. equity markets [6]. Expense Projections - Total expenses are expected to rise by 4.5% to $971.6 million due to higher compensation, professional expenses, and technology costs [8]. - GAAP operating expenses are projected to be between $1.22 billion and $1.23 billion, while adjusted operating expenses are estimated to be between $965 million and $975 million [9]. Volume Growth - ICE reported a 23% increase in first-quarter average daily volume (ADV), with Natural Gas ADV up 33% and Energy ADV up 24% year-over-year [10].

Market Catalysts - Catalysts are crucial in investing, as they can lead to significant price movements in stocks, such as regional banks and biotechs surging on takeover offers [3][4] - A major event scheduled for May 7 is anticipated to trigger substantial market changes, with preparations being made for this potential shift [4][22] CME Group Inc. (CME) - CME Group reported a 10% increase in revenues to $1.6 billion and a 12% rise in earnings per share (EPS) to $2.80 [7] - The exchange has seen a surge in trading volumes, averaging 40 million contracts daily in April, compared to 29.8 million in the first quarter [8] Intuit Inc. (INTU) - Intuit is expected to benefit from upcoming tax changes, with shares having previously risen 38% during the first year of Trump's presidency [11][12] - The stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of 30X, which is 15% below its five-year average, indicating potential for growth as tax discussions progress [14] U.S. Bancorp (USB) - U.S. Bancorp is recognized for its strong management and conservative underwriting, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13%, significantly above the industry median [15] - Recent market fears have pushed USB shares to low levels, presenting an opportunity for a potential "V"-shaped recovery, with expected upside of 25% to 50% [17][18] Market Cash Reserves - Investors currently hold a record $7 trillion in cash, with private equity alone holding at least $2.62 trillion, indicating a potential influx into the stock market [21]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The total short interest in Nasdaq securities has increased slightly, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards short selling as of April 15, 2025 Group 1: Nasdaq Global Market - Short interest in 3,143 Nasdaq Global Market securities totaled 13,211,633,004 shares, up from 13,072,444,217 shares in the previous reporting period [1] - The mid-April short interest represents 1.76 days of average daily volume, a decrease from 2.64 days in the prior reporting period [1] Group 2: Nasdaq Capital Market - Short interest in 1,634 securities on The Nasdaq Capital Market totaled 2,609,354,721 shares, down from 2,682,510,166 shares in the previous reporting period [2] - This represents an average daily volume of 1.00 day, compared to 1.12 days in the prior reporting period [2] Group 3: Overall Nasdaq Securities - Total short interest across all 4,777 Nasdaq securities reached 15,820,987,725 shares, an increase from 15,754,954,383 shares in the previous reporting period [3] - The average daily volume for this total is 1.52 days, down from 2.14 days in the prior reporting period [3] Group 4: Short Sale Definition - A short sale is defined as the sale of a security that the seller does not own or any sale consummated by the delivery of a borrowed security [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nasdaq reported strong first-quarter 2025 results with adjusted earnings per share of 79 cents, exceeding estimates and showing a year-over-year improvement of 25.4% driven by higher revenues and organic growth [1] Financial Performance - Nasdaq's net revenues reached $1.2 billion, marking a 12.5% increase year over year and slightly surpassing estimates by 0.1% [2] - Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew by 8% year over year to $2.8 billion, with organic growth at 9% [2] - Annualized SaaS revenues increased by 14%, accounting for 37% of ARR [2] - Capital Access Platforms' revenues were $479 million, up 11%, driven by growth across all business lines [2] - Financial Technology revenues were $395 million, reflecting a 10% increase [3] - Solutions business revenues rose 11% year over year to $947 million, supported by strong growth in Index and Financial Technology [3] - Market Services net revenues increased by 19% year over year to $281 million, exceeding estimates [3] Operating Expenses and Income - Adjusted operating expenses were $555 million, up 5.9% year over year, reflecting higher investments in technology and personnel [4] - Adjusted operating income increased by 15% year over year to $682 million, with an operating margin of 55%, expanding by 200 basis points [4] Market Activity - Nasdaq welcomed 170 new company listings in the quarter, including 63 initial public offerings, bringing the total number of listed companies to 4,139 [5] Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, Nasdaq had cash and cash equivalents of $708 million, a 17% increase from the end of 2024 [6] - Long-term debt decreased by 1.7% to $8.9 billion [6] - Cash flow from operations for the quarter was $663 million [6] Capital Deployment - Nasdaq returned $138 million to shareholders through dividends and $115 million through stock repurchases in the first quarter [7] - The board approved a dividend of 27 cents per share, a 13% increase, to be paid on June 27, 2025 [7] - $1.6 billion remains under the board-authorized share repurchase program as of March 31, 2025 [8] Guidance - Nasdaq expects 2025 non-GAAP operating expenses to be between $2,265 million and $2,325 million, slightly adjusted from previous guidance [9] - The forecasted non-GAAP tax rate for 2025 is projected to be between 22.5% and 24.5% [9]

Financial Highlights - Nasdaq's net revenue reached $1.237 billion, an increase of 11% year-over-year[18] - Solutions revenue grew to $947 million, representing a 9% increase year-over-year[18] - Operating income increased by 15% year-over-year to $682 million[18] - Diluted EPS increased by 24% year-over-year to $0.79[18] - Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased by 8% year-over-year to $2.831 billion[18] - Annualized SaaS revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to $1.061 billion[18] Segment Performance - Capital Access Platforms revenue increased by 11% adjusted year-over-year, with Index revenue up by 26% and Data & Listing revenue up by 4%[40] - Financial Technology revenue increased by 10% adjusted year-over-year, driven by a 21% increase in Financial Crime Management Technology revenue[40] - Market Services revenue increased by 19% adjusted year-over-year, driven by record volumes in U.S cash equities and derivatives[40] Operational Highlights - Index average ETP AUM increased year-over-year to $662 billion[24] - Nasdaq listed 45 operating companies, raising nearly $5 billion in proceeds[13]