Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Most Read from Fast Company For much of the past three years, Lennar, America’s second-largest homebuilder, has pursued an aggressive strategy: prioritize sales pace and market share, even if it meant slicing deeper into margins through price cuts and heavy incentives in the currently housing affordability strained market. That approach helped the company keep homes moving in softer Sun Bel ...

Key Takeaways KB Home's Q3 EPS estimate is $1.50, down 26.5% year over year, with revenues seen falling 8.9% to $1.6B.Gross margin is projected at 18.4% and operating margin at 7.9%, both down sharply from last year.KBH's new orders are expected to rise 6.5% to 3,286 units, while backlog is projected to drop to 4,653 units.KB Home (KBH) is slated to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 (ended Aug. 31) results on Sept. 24, after market close.In the last reported quarter, its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) ...

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets opened lower on September 22, 2025, following a record-high closing last week, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of key economic data and Federal Reserve commentary [1][2] - The S&P 500 dipped approximately 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 169 to 228 points (0.37% to 0.5%), and the Nasdaq Composite eased back by 0.1% to 0.2% [2] Economic Indicators - The market's overall trajectory has been upward since hitting a bottom in April, driven by expectations of continued rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3] - Investors are particularly focused on upcoming inflation data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is expected to show a slight increase [5] Corporate Developments - Pfizer (PFE) announced its intent to acquire Metsera (MTSR) for $4.9 billion, leading to a 60% surge in Metsera's shares and a 1.5% increase in Pfizer's stock [6] - FedEx Corp. (FDX) shares advanced 2.3% after reporting strong first-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings [6] - Lennar Corp. (LEN) saw a 4.2% decline in shares after its third-quarter fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings fell short of estimates [6] - Newmont Corp. (NEM) shares surged 4.3% following the sale of its stake in Orla Mining [6] - Brighthouse Financial Inc. (BHF) shares jumped 27.2% amid acquisition talks with Aquarian Holdings [6] Technology Sector News - Oracle (ORCL) gained 4% following reports of discussions with Meta for a potential $20 billion cloud computing deal [10] - Oklo (OKLO) shares climbed 28% due to a substantial UK-US nuclear energy partnership valued at $350 billion [10] - Apple (AAPL) shares rose 3.2% after a J.P. Morgan upgrade and the global launch of its newest iPhone model [10] - Tesla (TSLA) added 2.2% following a positive upgrade from Baird [10]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. has announced the grand opening of The Ranch at Uptown Celina, a new luxury home community located north of Dallas, Texas [1][4] - The community features four collections of single-family homes with sizes ranging from approximately 1,500 to over 5,000 square feet, priced from the upper $300,000s to the low $700,000s [2][4] Company Overview - Toll Brothers is recognized as the nation's leading builder of luxury homes and operates in over 60 markets across 22 states [8][9] - The company was founded in 1967 and became publicly traded in 1986, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "TOL" [8] Community Features - The Ranch at Uptown Celina offers a variety of amenities including an outdoor pool, biking trails, and open green spaces, enhancing the living experience for residents [2][5] - The community is located within the Celina Independent School District, providing access to quality educational institutions [5] Customer Experience - Toll Brothers provides a Design Studio for customers to personalize their homes with a wide selection of options, supported by professional Design Consultants [4]

Group 1 - D.R. Horton is the largest homebuilder in the U.S. by delivered homes, having solidified its market position over the past three decades [1] - The company has consistently captured market share, indicating strong competitive performance in the homebuilding industry [1] Group 2 - The investment philosophy discussed emphasizes identifying mispriced securities through understanding financial drivers, often revealed by DCF model valuation [1] - This approach allows for a flexible investment strategy that considers all prospects of a stock, rather than being confined to traditional investment categories [1]

Core Insights - LGI Homes, Inc. has announced the Grand Opening of Estrella at High Range, featuring 337 new single-family homes in Rio Rancho, New Mexico [1][2] - The new section builds on the company's previous success in the area, having delivered over 230 homes since 2015 [2] - The homes will start in the $350,000 range, offering upgraded and affordable options in a desirable location [4] Company Overview - LGI Homes is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, and operates in 36 markets across 21 states, having closed over 75,000 homes since its founding in 2003 [8][10] - The company has been recognized for its quality construction and customer service, earning a spot on Newsweek's list of the World's Most Trustworthy Companies [8] Community Features - Estrella at High Range will include five brand-new floor plans, with features such as stucco exteriors, large covered patios, and modern kitchens with Whirlpool® appliances [4][5] - The community will also offer a new five-acre park with various amenities, funded by a $2 million investment from LGI Homes [6] Location Benefits - The development is situated within the award-winning Rio Rancho Public School District, providing access to top-rated schools and major employers [5] - Residents will benefit from proximity to shopping, dining, and recreational opportunities in both Rio Rancho and nearby Albuquerque [5] Grand Opening Event - The Grand Opening event is scheduled for September 27, 2025, featuring exclusive discounts and incentives for homebuyers [7]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are trending lower, indicating a cautious start to the trading week after major indexes closed at record highs [1][2] - The S&P 500 futures are down 0.3%, Dow Jones futures are also down 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures show a larger decrease of 0.4% [2] - European indexes have started the week lower, with Germany's DAX down 0.6%, France's CAC 40 down 0.5%, and London's FTSE 100 declining by 0.1% [3] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released includes the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, with consensus estimates predicting a 2.7% increase for the headline PCE and a 2.9% rise for the core PCE [4] - Provisional Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys for September are expected, with the U.S. S&P Manufacturing & Services PMI scheduled for Tuesday [5] - A looming deadline to prevent a U.S. government shutdown is also a concern for investors [5] Corporate Developments - President Trump's decision to impose a $100,000 one-time fee for new H-1B visas is expected to significantly impact technology and financial sectors, leading to lower shares for Indian IT companies like Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys [6] - FedEx Corporation shares advanced by 2.3% after reporting stronger-than-expected first-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings [7] - Lennar Corporation shares fell by 4.2% after missing third-quarter fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings estimates [7] - Newmont Corporation surged 4.3% following the sale of its stake in Orla Mining [7] - Brighthouse Financial Inc. experienced a significant jump of 27.2% amid advanced acquisition talks with Aquarian Holdings [7] - Apple Inc. shares jumped 3.2% driven by strong demand for the new iPhone 17, with preorders in China reportedly topping those of the iPhone 16 in just one minute [7] - Oracle Corporation gained 4% after reports of discussions with Meta Platforms for a multi-year cloud computing deal worth $20 billion [11] - Airline stocks, including British Airways owner IAG, Lufthansa, and Air France-KLM, are down following a cyberattack targeting major airports [11]

Group 1: Housing Market Overview - The U.S. housing market is experiencing conflicting signals, with a sharp decline in construction activity expected to tighten supply, while a recent Federal Reserve rate cut aims to stimulate demand [1] - The affordability crisis is highlighted by a slowdown in construction, with building permits falling 3.7% to an annualized rate of 1.3 million, the lowest since May 2020, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline [2][3] - Housing starts have plummeted 8.5% for the month, indicating a significant downturn in new construction [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Market Response - The downturn in construction has prompted warnings about future supply constraints, with predictions that housing will become even less affordable [3] - The recent 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a response to the weakening housing data, although experts suggest a more substantial decline in mortgage rates is needed for a recovery [3] Group 3: Investment Insights - Berkshire Hathaway has made significant investments in major homebuilders, including DR Horton Inc. and Lennar Corp., indicating strong long-term conviction in the housing sector despite current challenges [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to lower mortgage rates, positively impacting housing activity after a prolonged period of high borrowing costs [1][8] - Toll Brothers, a leading luxury home builder, is positioned to benefit from declining rates, potentially reducing financing incentives and improving profitability [2][7] - The company's third quarter of fiscal 2025 showed a 6% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.88 billion, with earnings per share rising to $3.73, supported by cost management and buybacks [4][6] Group 2 - Toll Brothers reported steady order values at $2.41 billion, although unit sales decreased by 4%, indicating a focus on price stability [5] - The backlog at the end of the quarter was $6.38 billion, down 10% year over year, as the company continued to convert orders into deliveries [5] - The company returned $226 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, reflecting management's confidence in long-term performance [6] Group 3 - The company maintains full-year guidance of approximately 11,200 deliveries and an adjusted home-sales gross margin in the high 27% range, suggesting a strong outlook if demand improves [7] - Shares of Toll Brothers are trading at 10 times earnings, indicating potential for upside if demand trends enhance [8]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway has accumulated an approximately $800 million stake in Lennar, indicating confidence in the homebuilder's performance amid a recovering housing market [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Lennar reported Q3 2025 revenue of $8.8 billion, a decline of approximately 6.5%, missing expectations of $9 billion [4] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.00, a 49% drop from the prior year, also missing Wall Street estimates of $2.14 [4] - The company delivered 21,584 homes, slightly more than in Q3 2024, but faced significant discounts, reducing the average home selling price by over 9% to $383,000 [5] Group 2: Market Conditions - Homebuilding stocks, including Lennar, have seen a total return of approximately 21% from June 30 to September 18, buoyed by expectations of lower interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to improve financing conditions for homebuilders [7] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen by around 50 basis points since the end of June, with a current rate of 6.26% [8] Group 3: Future Outlook - Lennar expects to deliver between 22,000 and 23,000 homes in Q4, indicating a modest increase compared to Q3 [9] - The company projects gross margin to remain at 17.5% and average selling prices between $380,000 and $390,000, suggesting continued discounting [10] - Analysts forecast a 12-month stock price target of $128.33, indicating a potential upside of 0.91% from the current price [11]