Core Insights - Approximately 72% of licensed crypto exchanges in Indonesia were unprofitable by the end of 2025, despite the user base exceeding 20 million, indicating a significant structural challenge in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The total value of crypto transactions in Indonesia decreased to IDR 482.23 trillion (approximately $30 billion) in 2025, down from IDR 650 trillion in 2024, attributed to a shift towards regional and global trading platforms [2] - The domestic transaction value remains suboptimal as much of the trading activity is directed towards the global ecosystem, with users seeking more efficient execution and competitive costs [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Domestic exchanges face an uneven playing field due to tax and compliance burdens that foreign platforms do not encounter, allowing Indonesian investors to access overseas exchanges via VPN [4] - Users prefer overseas platforms for reasons such as lower costs, faster withdrawals, and security concerns stemming from past incidents like the Indodax hack in 2024 [5] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - A major regulatory shift occurred on January 10, 2025, when oversight of the crypto market transitioned from Bappebti to OJK, leading to the issuance of new licenses and increased competition among 29 licensed exchanges [6] - The entry of global players, such as Robinhood's acquisition plans for local brokerage and crypto trading firms, adds further pressure to the domestic market [7]

South Korean regulators want to block individual shareholders from amassing stakes higher than 20% in domestic crypto exchanges — but face opposition from government and industry figures. The Financial Services Commission, or FSC, South Korea’s top regulator, has proposed a 15% to 20% cap on share ownership to avoid conflicts of interest. “As [crypto] exchanges are now officially recognised as part of the financial system, we must create a governance structure that befits their status,” said the FSC cha ...

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase Global (COIN) has experienced a significant downturn, with a 7-day loss of 13% and a market capitalization decrease of approximately $8.5 billion, now at $56 billion [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock has a year-to-date (YTD) return of -7.4%, contrasting with a 1.9% return for the S&P 500, indicating a need for re-evaluation of its valuation [3]. - The ongoing losing streak of COIN stock raises concerns among investors, especially when compared to the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which has consistently outperformed its benchmarks [10]. Group 2: Causes of Decline - The decline is attributed to negative analyst adjustments and reduced institutional demand, with predictions of significant year-over-year decreases in earnings and revenue [4]. - A market-wide sell-off in cryptocurrencies and legislative issues, including the CEO's resistance to a proposed bill on stablecoin rewards, have contributed to negative sentiment in the crypto sector [9]. Group 3: Market Context - Since mid-January, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $1.7 billion in outflows, reflecting broader market challenges [4]. - There are currently 55 S&P constituents with three or more consecutive days of gains, while 80 constituents have faced three or more consecutive days of losses, indicating a mixed market environment [9]. Group 4: Valuation Perspective - Despite the downturn, COIN stock is viewed as fairly priced due to its strong operating performance and financial stability, suggesting that it may not be a cause for concern [6]. - Historical analysis is necessary to determine if previous declines have served as buying opportunities or traps for investors [8].

Group 1: Coinbase Overview - Coinbase's business is experiencing growth, but investment decisions depend on individual beliefs about the future of cryptocurrency [1][2] - The stock has declined over 50% since its peak in late 2025, yet employees at Coinbase express excitement about their work and the company is actively hiring [2] - Despite a challenging year for crypto investors in 2025, trading volumes reached new records, and institutional interest is increasing due to a favorable regulatory environment [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Current interest in Coinbase is low, as indicated by light coverage on TheStreet Pro and low Google Trends activity, suggesting it may be a good time to buy [7] - Technical analysis indicates that shares are heavily oversold, with potential support around 212, but investment in Coinbase is considered high-risk [8] - Analysts suggest that a period of sideways trading could indicate a base for Coinbase, which would be a positive sign for potential investors [9] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Institutional Interest - Coinbase has high margins and a strong balance sheet, with new institutional investors entering the market due to CFTC regulations, which may enhance stability [10] - However, there are concerns about declining growth in free cash flow and rising operating expenses, alongside the risk of focusing on a single asset class [10] - The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 18.5, which is considered reasonable given its growth and return on equity metrics [10] Group 4: Sentiment Indicator - Coinbase may serve as a sentiment indicator for the broader crypto market, with current sentiment being unfavorable for both COIN and Bitcoin [11]

Core Insights - Coinbase has aligned itself with a Trump-backed initiative by matching government contributions to Trump Accounts for eligible children of its employees, marking a strategic move in Washington's financial landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Company Initiatives - Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced that the company will match the $1,000 seed deposit provided by the U.S. Treasury for eligible children of its employees [2]. - The company aims to eventually make its contribution in Bitcoin (BTC) [2]. - Coinbase is among several major employers, including Uber, Intel, Nvidia, and IBM, that have committed to adding Trump Account contributions to their employee benefit packages [4]. Group 2: Program Details - The Trump Accounts program, established under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), provides every U.S. child with a government-backed investment account featuring tax-advantaged growth [3]. - Children born between 2025 and 2028 will automatically receive a $1,000 government deposit, while additional funding will provide $250 accounts for up to 25 million children born before 2025 [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - Despite the growing support for crypto from Trump and Coinbase's intention to contribute in Bitcoin, crypto investments are currently restricted within Trump Accounts, allowing only Spot Bitcoin ETFs and excluding Ethereum ETFs and tokenized assets [5]. - The absence of crypto in the program has not deterred crypto firms from participating, as evidenced by Robinhood Markets being the first crypto-facing firm to commit to matching contributions for Trump Accounts [9].

Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) investors naturally track cryptocurrency prices. But heading into 2026, a far more solid catalyst is emerging. The July 1, 2026 deadline could trigger significant volatility for the stock, as it is the day when California's Digital Financial Assets Law (DFAL) will fully take effect. Starting that date, all businesses "exchanging, storing, or transferring a digital financial asset, such as a crypto asset" need to either hold or apply for a license from the California Department of Fi ...

Bitcoin Market Dynamics - The 1-year+ holding wave of Bitcoin indicates that long-term holders are distributing their coins, consistent with historical patterns observed in post-halving years [1] - Investor expectations significantly drive Bitcoin's value, making its price highly reflexive and reinforcing the four-year cycle pattern, which has historically led to price peaks in Q4 of post-halving years [3][4] - The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased institutional investment is changing the demand structure, providing a more stable bid for Bitcoin compared to retail-driven flows [5] 2026 Market Outlook - The outlook for 2026 suggests that while it may not resemble a traditional bear market, heightened volatility and range-bound trading are expected due to structural support from institutional capital [8] - The four-year cycle expectation continues to influence market timing and sentiment, despite the evolving market conditions [8] Ethereum's Evolution - Ethereum has solidified its position as a dominant platform for decentralized finance and tokenization, but its monetary narrative as "Ultra-Sound Money" has weakened due to reduced transaction fees and inflationary supply dynamics [10][12] - The divergence between Ethereum's strength as a network and ETH's performance as an asset raises questions about its current narrative, with two emerging perspectives: "Digital Oil" and "Yield-bearing productive asset" [13][17] Layer-1 Blockchain Competition - The Layer 1 blockchain market has become increasingly competitive, with new entrants optimizing for compliance and performance, while Ethereum maintains advantages in decentralization and developer ecosystem [18][19] - The economic value of Layer 1 blockspace is trending toward its marginal cost of operation, reflecting a highly competitive environment [20][25] Privacy Coins Resurgence - Privacy coins like Zcash and Monero have seen a resurgence, driven by ongoing demand for privacy amid increasing regulatory scrutiny in the crypto space [26][30] - Zcash is positioned favorably due to its opt-in privacy model and compatibility with regulatory requirements, unlike Monero, which faces greater scrutiny [28][30] Perpetual DEX Growth - The Perp DEX sector has experienced significant growth, with weekly volumes increasing from $81 billion in 2024 to $314.7 billion in 2025, attracting institutional interest [36] - Despite rapid expansion, the capital base of Perp DEXs remains shallow, with a leverage ratio of approximately 2.0x, indicating limited risk absorption capacity [37] Prediction Markets Development - Prediction markets have transitioned from fringe experiments to significant components of financial infrastructure, with platforms like Polymarket demonstrating superior accuracy compared to traditional polling methods [48][49] - The sector is expected to mature further in 2026, with increasing institutional interest and the development of solutions to address existing structural challenges [52]

The stock of crypto exchange HaskKey Holdings (HKG) jumped 6% during the Jan. 28 trading session in Hong Kong after banking giant JPMorgan initiated coverage. The bank highlighted a potential 28% upside for HKG stock, citing 85% growth in institutional digital asset inflows in Hong Kong. JPMorgan Sets $9 Target for HashKey Stock Price J.P. Morgan has released a report initiating coverage on HashKey stock, assigning an “Overweight” rating with a target price of HK$9 by the end of 2026. Crypto exchange Ha ...

Coinone, a South Korean crypto exchange, says there is no truth in reports it will meet Coinbase executives to discuss a takeover this week, after reports that the US exchange was eyeing an acquisition deal. Coinbase executives tabled a meeting with Coinone after the latter’s CEO Cha Myung-hoon indicated a willingness to sell his controlling 54% stake in the exchange, sources told Seoul Kyungjae, a major South Korean newspaper, on Sunday. “These reports are untrue,” said a Coinone spokesperson, as repor ...

Crypto is global, and despite geopolitical conflicts, transactions continue to flow. As of early 2026, while a few countries strictly regulate crypto, the majority, including Russia and Ukraine, recognize that the underlying technology is here to stay. Centralized crypto exchanges operate, offering services, but as expected, every transaction is closely monitored. After Binance exited Russia, local alternatives thrived. In Ukraine, WhiteBit is especially popular. On January 23, Russia turned its eyes on ...