Lowe’s (LOW) FY Conference June 11, 2025 01:30 PM ET Speaker0 Well, good afternoon. Thank you all for joining us. My name is Brian Nagel. I'm a senior equity research analyst here at Oppenheimer covering consumer growth and ecommerce. So this is day three of our twenty fifth annual Oppenheimer consumer growth and ecommerce conference. So, again, thank you all for joining us. I am very pleased to have with us our next presenting company, Lowe's, and three of the company's executives. That's CEO, Marvin Ellis ...

Core Viewpoint - Floor & Decor Holdings is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its attractive business model, growth plans, and favorable valuation compared to competitors like Home Depot [1][12][16] Group 1: Business Model - Floor & Decor operates a high-volume retail model with around 250 locations, each between 50,000 and 80,000 square feet, generating $4.5 billion in trailing-12-month revenue [7][8] - The business model is praised for its efficiency, allowing for operating leverage and strong profitability, akin to Costco's approach [6][8] - The company aims to maintain a limited number of high-volume stores rather than expanding into numerous low-volume locations [11] Group 2: Growth Plans - Floor & Decor plans to grow to at least 500 locations, with 20 new stores expected to open in 2025, representing about 8% growth [9][10] - The company also owns Spartan Surfaces, which provides flooring installations for commercial properties, offering an additional growth avenue [10][11] - Revenue is projected to potentially double in the next five years through sales growth, new store openings, and ancillary business initiatives [11] Group 3: Valuation - Floor & Decor's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is more attractive compared to Home Depot, despite the latter's higher profit margins [12][14] - The company has demonstrated the ability to achieve profit margins over 8% during peak periods, currently maintaining around 5% [14][15] - The current valuation is considered one of the cheapest in its history, making it an opportune time for investment [16]

Core Viewpoint - Lowe's Companies, Inc. has completed the acquisition of Artisan Design Group for $1.325 billion, enhancing its capabilities in the interior surface finishes market [1][10]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition was fully funded using Lowe's available cash resources, and the company has suspended its share repurchase program for the remainder of the year [2]. - Lowe's plans to repay $1.75 billion of debt maturing in September 2025 in conjunction with this transaction [2]. Strategic Significance - The integration of ADG allows Lowe's to expand into a complementary distribution and installation channel, enhancing its reach beyond traditional retail operations [3]. - This acquisition is expected to be accretive to Lowe's earnings per share starting in fiscal 2026, significantly improving its Pro customer offerings [5]. - The transaction provides immediate entry into a $50 billion market characterized by fragmentation, with increased construction activity projected to drive demand [6]. Market Opportunity - The U.S. housing market is expected to require approximately 18 million new homes by 2033, indicating sustained demand within the professional segment [6]. - ADG generated approximately $1.8 billion in revenues in fiscal 2024, and Lowe's anticipates continued growth from this business due to operational synergies and increased scale [7]. Growth Factors - Lowe's has demonstrated resilience and strategic focus, particularly in its Pro segment, which has shown mid-single-digit comparable sales growth [11]. - Digital transformation and AI integration are significant growth drivers, with online sales increasing by 6% year over year [12].

Core Viewpoint - Lowe's Companies, Inc. has successfully completed the acquisition of Artisan Design Group (ADG), enhancing its position in the home improvement market and expanding into a $50 billion market segment [1][2]. Company Overview - Lowe's is a FORTUNE® 100 home improvement company with over 1,700 stores and approximately 300,000 employees, serving around 16 million customer transactions weekly [4]. - The company reported total sales exceeding $83 billion for the fiscal year 2024 [4]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition of ADG, a leading provider of design, distribution, and installation services for interior surface finishes, is expected to accelerate Lowe's growth in Pro planned spend and expand its distribution channels [2]. - ADG has established a strong reputation in the industry, achieving high customer satisfaction scores from top homebuilders [2]. Advisory Information - Centerview Partners LLC and Greenhill are acting as financial advisors to Lowe's, while RBC Capital Markets, Goldman Sachs, and Robert W. Baird are advising ADG [3].

Core Insights - Lowe's Companies, Inc. has increased its quarterly cash dividend to $1.20 per share, reflecting a 4% increase from the previous dividend of $1.15, demonstrating confidence in long-term prospects and commitment to shareholder returns [1][10] - The company has a strong history of dividend payments, having paid out cash dividends every quarter since going public in 1961, with over 25 consecutive years of annual increases [3][10] - Lowe's generated $2.9 billion in free cash flow in Q1 of fiscal 2025, which is sufficient to cover its $645 million dividend payment and support ongoing business expansion [6][10] Financial Strength and Growth Strategy - The dividend increase indicates Lowe's financial strength and commitment to delivering consistent value to shareholders despite macroeconomic challenges [2] - The company is pursuing growth opportunities, including a $1.325 billion acquisition of Artisan Design Group to enhance its presence in the Pro customer segment, financed through cash reserves [7] - Lowe's has a disciplined financial approach, with an adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.99X and a strong return on invested capital of 31%, allowing it to balance shareholder returns with growth investments [8] Growth Drivers - Lowe's is experiencing growth in its Pro segment, which delivered mid-single-digit comparable sales growth [11] - The company is advancing its digital transformation, with online sales rising 6% year over year in Q1, supported by the launch of the AI-powered MyLowe's adviser [12] - Lowe's is expanding its product marketplace through a partnership with Mirakl, enhancing offerings without increasing fulfillment costs or inventory [12]

Core Viewpoint - Major U.S. companies' earnings and tariff uncertainties are affecting investor sentiment, leading to a focus on attractive dividend stocks for consistent returns [1][2] Group 1: Home Depot (HD) - Home Depot reported mixed Q1 FY2025 results but reaffirmed its full-year guidance, maintaining prices despite tariffs [3][4] - The company declared a dividend of $2.30 per share for Q1 2025, resulting in an annualized dividend of $9.20 per share and a yield of 2.5% [3] - Analyst Greg Melich from Evercore reiterated a buy rating with a price target of $400, highlighting stabilizing traffic and improved online sales growth [4][5] - Melich believes Home Depot could become a significant breakout stock once the macro environment improves, similar to Costco and Walmart [6] Group 2: Diamondback Energy (FANG) - Diamondback Energy delivered better-than-expected Q1 results but reduced its full-year activity to maximize free cash flow due to commodity price volatility [8] - The company returned $864 million to shareholders in Q1 2025 through stock repurchases and a base dividend of $1.00 per share, resulting in a yield of nearly 3.9% [9] - Analyst Scott Hanold from RBC Capital reaffirmed a buy rating with a price target of $180, noting a 10% reduction in the capital budget but only a 1% cut in production outlook [10][11] - Hanold expects Diamondback to exceed its 50% minimum shareholder return target and plans to use remaining free cash flow to pay down a $1.5 billion term loan [12][13] Group 3: ConocoPhillips (COP) - ConocoPhillips reported market-beating Q1 2025 earnings but reduced its full-year capital and adjusted operating cost guidance while maintaining production outlook [14] - The company distributed $2.5 billion to shareholders in Q1 2025, including $1.5 billion in share repurchases and $1.0 billion in ordinary dividends, resulting in a yield of about 3.7% [15] - Analyst Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs reiterated a buy rating with a price target of $119, highlighting uncertainty in oil prices but optimism about long-term gas prices [16][18] - Mehta expects COP's breakeven to decrease, projecting it to head towards the low $30s as LNG spending decreases and production from the Willow project begins in 2029 [17]

Group 1: Coca-Cola - Coca-Cola is a staple brand with a strong dividend payment record, currently offering a forward dividend yield of 2.85% [3][4] - The company raised its quarterly payment for the 63rd consecutive year, indicating resilience through economic cycles [4][6] - Coca-Cola's adjusted revenue grew 6% year over year, with unit case volume up 2%, showcasing steady sales despite economic uncertainty [5][6] - Management expects adjusted earnings to increase by 7% to 9% in 2025, supporting further dividend increases [6][7] - The company raised the dividend by 5% this year, aligning with long-term growth expectations in revenue and earnings [7][8] Group 2: Home Depot - Home Depot is the leading home improvement retailer, with a $10,000 investment 20 years ago now worth $151,000, including dividend reinvestment [9][10] - The company offers a forward dividend yield of 2.49% and has maintained steady sales and earnings despite a weak housing market [10][11] - Home Depot's average customer earns $110,000 annually, with 80% being homeowners, contributing to healthy demand for small home projects [12] - Management expects full-year adjusted earnings to decline by approximately 2% over fiscal 2024, but long-term growth opportunities remain significant in the $1 trillion home improvement market [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment presents an opportunity for investors to consider quality dividend stocks, as recent challenges have led to lower stock prices and higher yields for leading retail and consumer goods brands [1][2]. Target - Target's stock is currently 64% off its highs, but the company has a history of rebounding from challenges, having previously invested in a robust omnichannel strategy that positioned it well for e-commerce growth [4][8]. - The company faces several pressures, including slow sales growth due to inflation, a smaller grocery segment compared to competitors, and politically motivated consumer boycotts, which have affected consumer confidence [5][6]. - Comparable sales dropped 3.8% year over year in the first quarter, while operating income increased by 13.6%, and same-day delivery saw a 35% year-over-year increase [6]. - Target has a strong digital presence and a robust membership program, and it is a Dividend King with a history of raising dividends for 53 years, currently offering a yield of 4.6% [7][8]. Starbucks - Starbucks' stock is down 31% from its highs, but it remains a strong consumer brand with over 40,000 stores globally, generating healthy margins that support dividend payments [9][10]. - The company is experiencing weak sales, with comparable store sales down 1% year over year, and earnings have decreased by 50% compared to the previous year [10][12]. - A new CEO, Brian Niccol, is focused on improving customer experience and managing costs, which is expected to support future dividend growth [11][12]. - The current quarterly dividend payment is $0.61, resulting in a forward yield of 2.82%, the highest in years, making it an attractive investment for long-term income [13]. Home Depot - Home Depot's stock is currently 15% off its highs, and while it has historically been a top performer, it has underperformed the S&P 500 over the last three years, gaining only 19% compared to the index's 42% [14]. - The company is facing a slowdown in the housing market due to rising mortgage rates, leading to a 0.3% decline in comparable sales, although overall revenue increased by 9.4% to $39.9 billion due to an acquisition [15][16]. - Despite current challenges, there is a housing shortage estimated at around 4 million homes, which could eventually drive demand for home improvement materials [16]. - Home Depot offers a 2.5% dividend yield and has raised its dividend for 16 consecutive years, making it a strong candidate for long-term dividend growth [18].

Core Viewpoint - Tariffs create significant uncertainty for businesses and investors, impacting stock market predictions and evolving weekly [1] Group 1: Walmart - Walmart has substantial vendor power to influence prices and can pass costs to consumers if necessary [4] - The retailer's sales increased by 2.5% year-over-year to $165.6 billion, with operating income rising by 4.3% to $7.1 billion [6] - Despite a high valuation at over 40 times trailing earnings, Walmart is considered a safer retail stock under current macroeconomic conditions [7] Group 2: Home Depot - Home Depot does not anticipate raising prices due to tariffs, as suppliers can source goods from multiple countries [9] - The company expects single-digit sales growth of 2.8% for the current fiscal year, with comparable sales rising by 1% [10] - With shares down 7% this year, Home Depot's valuation at a P/E of 25 is modest and aligns with the S&P 500 average [11] Group 3: Microsoft - Microsoft has low tariff risk, generating around 22% of revenue from product sales, with most coming from services [12] - The company reported a 15% revenue increase to over $70 billion in its April quarter, with Azure and cloud services sales rising by 35% [13] - Although trading at a P/E of 35, Microsoft's diversification and financial strength make it a strong growth stock for long-term investment [14]

Summary of Jewett-Cameron Trading Company (JCTC) Conference Call Company Overview - Jewett-Cameron Trading Company (JCTC) is a small-cap company with significant growth potential, focusing on durable markets and functional products [3][4] - The company has a 70-year history and is listed on NASDAQ, primarily offering fencing, pet containment, and sustainable home products [4] Core Business and Product Offerings - JCTC is undergoing a strategic transformation, evolving from a lean operation to a growth-oriented platform with product leadership in outdoor living and home improvement [5] - Key product categories include: - **Fencing Products**: Includes fence boards, pickets, steel access accessories, and composite EuroFence products [8] - **Pet Containment**: Focuses on durable solutions like welded wire and chain link dog kennels [8] - **Sustainable Products**: Compostable and post-consumer recycled products, including bags for waste [8] - **Greenwood**: A subsidiary specializing in industrial wood products, particularly proprietary plywood for transit buses [8] Market Position and Growth Strategy - JCTC has established strong retail relationships with major retailers like Home Depot, Lowe's, and Costco, enhancing shelf presence and growth momentum [6] - The company is actively transitioning to growth mode by optimizing pricing, expanding distribution, and reducing overhead [8] - The introduction of innovative products, such as the lifetime steel post and adjustable gates, has driven significant sales growth [10][12] Financial Position - JCTC is trading at a steep discount to book value, has no long-term debt, and possesses a valuable 11.6-acre property that could enhance equity upon sale [7] - The company has reduced inventory levels to align with growth plans, improving cash flow and operational efficiency [16][17] Supply Chain and Tariff Mitigation - JCTC has diversified its supply chain to include sourcing from countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Indonesia, reducing dependency on China [21][22] - The company has implemented a comprehensive multisourcing strategy to mitigate tariff impacts, particularly the 25% global steel tariff [21][22] - Ongoing landed cost comparisons and dual tooling strategies are in place to maintain competitive pricing and ensure supply continuity [25][26] Customer Response and Pricing Strategy - Customers have responded positively to recent price adjustments, which have been modest due to proactive sourcing strategies [27][28] - JCTC aims to maintain competitive pricing while ensuring product quality and reliability, reinforcing its position as a trusted supplier [28] Property Sale and Future Outlook - The company is selling an 11-acre property in Oregon, which has faced a slower sales timeline due to market uncertainties and zoning constraints [30][31] - The property is valued at $9 million, with significant potential upside upon sale [32] - JCTC envisions a dominant presence in the fencing market and plans to expand its product range and distribution channels over the next five to ten years [33][34] Final Takeaways - JCTC is executing a focused strategy with strong momentum in key product categories and strategic sourcing initiatives [36] - The management team is committed to creating value for shareholders, making it an opportune time for investors to consider the company [36]