It is time. It's time for the light cruise. That's my rept.And then the lightning round is over. Are you ready. Oh, I want to start with Brian in Rhode Island.Brian, >> hey Jim. Booyah. >> Booyah.Brian, what's up. I want to know what your thoughts are on this. Uh it's fairly new AI company has partnerships with Google, Microsoft, and stable coin Tether.Uh it's called Resolve RZLV. >> Yeah, this thing's a rocket ship. I got to do more.I can't cuff this one. It's it's it's uh look, the thing is straight up an ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that while mainstream markets celebrate the end of inflation, commodity traders are signaling a different narrative through rising commodity prices, indicating potential inflationary pressures in the near future [1][2][3] - Commodity markets are seen as a leading indicator of inflation, with rising raw material prices typically preceding broader price increases, particularly in manufacturing and industrial sectors [2][3] - Historical data shows that metal prices lead global Consumer Price Index (CPI) by approximately 6-9 months, and the current rise in metal prices serves as a warning sign for upcoming inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Multiple inflation leading indicators are showing strong signals of accelerating price pressures, with a composite indicator based on manufacturing, monetary, and commodity data remaining above 2% and rising [3] - The inflow of funds into commodities is broad-based, with significant increases in commodity ETFs, despite a slower-than-expected inflow into gold ETFs, reflecting complacency in other market segments regarding inflation [3][4] - The current confidence in stock and bond markets is excessive, with inflows into major stock and bond ETFs at or near high levels, not reflecting expectations of a return to high inflation similar to the 1970s [4][5]

Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. government has made a significant investment of $5 billion in Intel, which follows the president's announcement of a federal stake in the company, highlighting the importance of domestic semiconductor manufacturing [1][3] - The U.S. currently produces only about 12% of advanced semiconductors, which poses a national security risk due to reliance on foreign production, particularly from South Korea and Taiwan [3] - The investment in Intel is viewed positively as a business opportunity, despite the company's current struggles under new leadership [4] National Security and Supply Chain - The U.S. government holds a 10% stake in Intel, which is framed as a measure of national security, contrasting with the view that government stakes in energy companies may not be necessary [5][6] - The U.S. is vulnerable in supply chains for critical minerals and rare earth elements, with China processing 90% of these materials, which poses a significant disadvantage [7][8] Government Funding and Political Landscape - The Senate is facing a deadline for government funding, with ongoing discussions about a continuing resolution to keep the government open until November 20th [10][11] - There is a partisan divide, with Democrats pushing for additional spending in health care subsidies, which complicates negotiations [12][15] - The political climate is described as polarized, making it challenging to reach consensus on government funding [14][15]

Group 1 - Oil prices are experiencing a decline, with Brent crude down 0.5% to $67.60 per barrel and WTI down 0.6% to $63.66 per barrel [2] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut is seen as a "risk-management cut" aimed at mitigating economic risks rather than indicating a significant dovish shift [2] - Lower interest rates are generally expected to boost economic activity and fuel demand, which typically drives crude prices higher [2]

Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut of 2025, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25%, indicating a shift in monetary policy amidst inflation risks and slowing employment [3][7]. - Chair Jerome Powell described the current economic environment as a "challenging situation," highlighting persistent inflation risks and rising downside risks to employment [3][7]. - The FOMC confirmed its intention to continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt, with one governor dissenting for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [3]. Deutsche Bank Lending Rate Adjustment - Deutsche Bank announced a reduction in its prime lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 7.25%, effective September 18, 2025, impacting its U.S. operations [4][7]. Puma Takeover Speculation - Puma's shares surged by as much as 16.7% due to reports of a potential takeover bid from private equity firm CVC Capital Partners and Authentic Brands Group, targeting the 29% stake held by the Pinault family's holding company, Artemis [5][7]. - Sources indicated that Artemis is willing to sell their stake at approximately 40 euros per share [5]. Google and PayPal Partnership - Google (Alphabet) and PayPal announced a multiyear strategic partnership aimed at advancing digital commerce solutions, focusing on AI-powered shopping experiences [6][7]. - PayPal's payment solutions will be more deeply integrated across various Google platforms, including Google Cloud, Google Ads, and Google Play [6][8]. Mexican Government Debt Issuance - The Mexican government issued $13.8 billion in new debt to strengthen the financial position of state-owned oil company Pemex, following a $12 billion bond buyback [9]. - The issuance included 5 billion euros in bonds and $8 billion in dollar bonds, with total demand reaching an equivalent of $50.6 billion [9].

Group 1: Core Insights - Earnings per share (EPS) growth is a significant driver of stock performance in the Oil – Energy sector, indicating real strength despite volatility [1] - Par Pacific Holdings, Oceaneering International, and TechnipFMC have shown strong EPS growth, making them attractive investment options [1] Group 2: Par Pacific Holdings - Par Pacific operates an integrated energy platform with a refining capacity of 219,000 barrels per day and over 100 fuel and convenience store locations [2] - The company balances conventional fuel supply with decarbonization initiatives and has a significant interest in natural gas production [3] - Projected earnings for Par Pacific are expected to increase by 516.2% in 2025, with this year's earnings anticipated at $2.28 per share, reflecting a 32% increase from $1.73 in 2019 [3][10] Group 3: Oceaneering International - Oceaneering is a global technology company providing engineered services and advanced robotic solutions across various sectors [4] - The energy sector contributes nearly 75% of Oceaneering's revenues, with a focus on digital and robotics-driven opportunities [5] - Earnings for Oceaneering are forecasted to rise by 57.9% in 2025, reaching $1.80 per share, a significant turnaround from a loss of 83 cents per share in 2019 [6][10] Group 4: TechnipFMC - TechnipFMC is a global provider of subsea and surface technologies, supporting both traditional and emerging energy solutions [7] - The company employs an innovation-led approach, enhancing project economics and reducing carbon intensity through digital tools [8] - Earnings for TechnipFMC are expected to improve by 20% this year to $2.18 per share, with a potential 275% increase from 60 cents in 2019 by 2025 [9][10]

Group 1 - Oil prices are easing after a previous session increase of more than 1.5%, as investors are concerned about risks to Russian supplies [1] - The European Commission is set to unveil its 19th sanctions package and propose an accelerated phase-out of Russian fossil-fuel imports [2] - The EU is considering targeting Indian and Chinese companies that facilitate Moscow's oil trade [2] Group 2 - Ukraine has conducted a strike on Russia's Saratov crude refinery, as reported by the general staff of Ukraine's armed forces [2]

Group 1 - Occidental Petroleum shares increased by 5% as oil prices rose due to developments in the Russia-Ukraine war affecting Russian oil supply [1] - Oil prices rose by 2% amid concerns over Russian oil supply, with Ukraine increasing drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, leading to a reduction in Russian oil refining below five million barrels per day, the lowest since April 2022 [2] - Prior to the recent rise, oil prices had fallen 9% this year to the $60 range, significantly lower than the $139 peak in 2022, but increased Ukrainian aggression against Russian oil assets could change the pricing dynamic [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the federal funds rate, which could stimulate economic activity and increase oil demand [4] - Warren Buffett has allocated over 11% of his stock portfolio to Chevron and Occidental, viewing them as hedges against geopolitical risks due to their large inventory bases in the U.S. and friendly countries [6][7] - The increased aggressiveness of Ukraine in targeting Russian oil and refining assets has contributed to rising oil prices, benefiting Occidental and other U.S.-based oil companies [8]

U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stocks traded mostly lower, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 150 points, down 0.37% to 45,713.02 [1] - The NASDAQ fell 0.03% to 22,341.05, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.14% to 6,605.77 [1] - Energy shares increased by 1.1%, while utilities stocks fell by 0.8% [1] Company Performance - Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc. reported second-quarter revenue of $557.41 million, missing analyst estimates of $562.78 million [2] - The company reported adjusted earnings of 40 cents per share, falling short of estimates of 92 cents per share [2] Commodity Market - Oil prices increased by 2.2% to $64.70, while gold rose by 0.2% to $3,726.00 [5] - Silver traded up 0.1% to $43.000, and copper fell by 0.1% to $4.7120 [5] European Market - European shares were lower, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 falling 0.86% [6] - Spain's IBEX 35 Index decreased by 1.30%, London's FTSE 100 fell 0.74%, Germany's DAX 40 dipped 1.29%, and France's CAC 40 fell 0.72% [6] Asian Market - Asian markets closed mostly higher, with Japan's Nikkei gaining 0.30% and India's BSE Sensex increasing by 0.73% [7] Notable Stock Movements - Turbo Energy, S.A. shares surged 408% to $13.72 after securing a $53 million contract for energy storage projects in Spain [8] - WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. shares rose 28% to $19.13 following a non-binding agreement with Disney [8] - Jumia Technologies AG shares increased by 22% to $11.90 after an upgrade from RBC Capital [8] - Bionano Genomics, Inc. shares dropped 41% to $1.6398 due to a $10 million public offering announcement [8] - GD Culture Group Limited shares fell 19% to $7.84 after entering a share exchange agreement [8] - Next Technology Holding Inc. shares decreased by 17% to $23.79 after filing for a stock shelf of up to $500 million [8] Economic Indicators - U.S. business inventories increased by 0.2% month-over-month in July, aligning with market estimates [11] - The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index remained steady at 32 in September [11] - U.S. industrial production rose by 0.1% in August, exceeding market expectations [11] - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month in August, surpassing expectations [11] - Export and import prices both rose by 0.3% in August [11]

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is recognized as a strong candidate for consistent dividends in the energy sector, supported by its growth strategy and shareholder rewards [2][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Strategy - Exxon Mobil has achieved a modest gain of approximately 5% in stock value this year, indicating stable performance amidst market fluctuations [2]. - The company has outlined a strategic plan that aims to enhance earnings by $20 billion and cash flow by $30 billion by 2030, targeting a compound annual growth rate of around 10% for earnings and 8% for cash flow [3]. - A significant investment of about $140 billion is planned for large-scale capital projects, particularly in the Permian Basin, with expectations of lifetime returns exceeding 30% [4]. Group 2: Dividend Policy - On August 13, Exxon Mobil declared a quarterly dividend of $0.99 per share, maintaining its previous payout level, and has a history of increasing dividends for 42 consecutive years [5]. - The current dividend yield stands at 3.52% as of September 12, reinforcing its status as a reliable dividend stock [5].