预测市场里的 Kalshi 又融资了，此次直接融了 10 亿美金，让 Kalshi 的估值直接干到了 110 亿美金。10 月份 Kalshi 刚完成 3 亿美金的融资，当时估值 是 50 亿美金《 a16z 和红杉联合领投 Kalshi 3 亿美金，又一华人挑战 Scale AI 一年 900 万美金 ARR 》。 今年 6 月份的时候，Kalshi 刚完成 1.85 亿美金的 C 轮融资，其估值才 20 亿美金， 相当于半年时间其估值从 20 亿直接涨到了现在的 110 亿，增长了 5.5 倍 。 Paradigm 创始人 Matt Huang 说，Paradigm 今年已连续三轮投资了 Kalshi，这是他们见过增长最快的公司之一。他说 预测市场是一种文明尺度的真相 揭示机器，但它们也是对社会所需求的有趣且有用的金融风险敞口集合的一种广度优先搜索（很像 YouTube 是对媒体的广度优先搜索一样） 。 估值如此快速的增长，不仅让其联合创始人 Luana Lopes Lara 成为历史上最年轻的女性亿万富翁之一，也让其最早的投资人 YC 在 6 年前投的 15 万美 金变成近 7 亿美金 （由于融资稀释， ...

Kalshi is now offering tokenized versions of its event-contract wagers on Solana, the company told CNBC, marking its clearest bid yet to attract crypto traders who have gravitated to on-chain platforms like Polymarket. The setup tokenizes Kalshi’s existing event markets, spanning politics to macro data, and makes them tradable on Solana, according to the Monday report. Tokenized contracts work the same as Kalshi’s traditional products, but on-chain trading adds anonymity and aligns the exchange more clos ...

Robinhood recently announced a new step into prediction markets. The company is teaming up with Susquehanna to launch a CFTC-licensed futures and derivatives exchange. JB Mackenzie, Vice President and General Manager of Futures and International at Robinhood Markets talks about entering a crowded field that includes players like Kalshi and how it's navigating rising tensions among rivals on "Bloomberg Markets" with Katie Greifeld. ...

Andrew Hecht is a 35-year Wall Street veteran covering commodities and precious metals. He runs the investing group The Hecht Commodity Report, one of the most comprehensive commodities services available. It covers the market movements of 20 different commodities and provides bullish, bearish and neutral calls; directional trading recommendations, and actionable ideas for traders. Learn more.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, an ...

Core Insights - The article highlights Andrew Hecht's extensive experience in the commodities and precious metals markets, emphasizing his role in providing comprehensive market analysis and trading recommendations through The Hecht Commodity Report [1]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Andrew Hecht has 35 years of experience on Wall Street, focusing on commodities and precious metals [1]. - He operates The Hecht Commodity Report, which covers market movements of 20 different commodities [1]. - The report offers various market calls, including bullish, bearish, and neutral recommendations, along with actionable trading ideas [1].

Core Viewpoint - Nasdaq, Inc. has announced cash tender offers for its outstanding Notes, with a maximum purchase price of $95 million, subject to specific caps on different series of Notes [1][3]. Group 1: Tender Offer Details - The company is offering to purchase up to $80 million of its 5.350% Senior Notes due 2028 and up to $10 million of its 3.950% Senior Notes due 2052 [1]. - The total consideration for each $1,000 principal amount of Notes validly tendered before the Early Tender Date will include an early tender premium [5][6]. - The Tender Offers will expire at 5:00 p.m. New York City time on December 30, 2025, with an Early Tender Date of December 12, 2025 [4][10]. Group 2: Payment and Settlement - Payment for Notes accepted for purchase will be made promptly following the Expiration Date, anticipated to be December 31, 2025, with potential early settlement for those tendered before the Early Tender Date [9]. - Holders of Notes accepted for purchase will receive accrued and unpaid interest from the last interest payment date to the applicable settlement date [7]. Group 3: Purpose and Funding - The purpose of the Tender Offers is to reduce the company's total outstanding public debt [8]. - The company intends to fund the purchase of validly tendered and accepted Notes with available cash on hand and other sources of liquidity [8].

Economic Indicators - Japanese corporate spending on factories and equipment rose by 2.9% in July-September compared to the same period last year, indicating resilience in the economy despite U.S. tariffs [1][12] - The yen gained 0.2% to 155.84 per dollar, moving away from its 10-month low of 157.90, which raised concerns about potential yen-buying interventions from Tokyo [2][12] Currency Market Dynamics - Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama noted that recent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and the rapid weakening of the yen are not fundamentally driven [4][12] - The dollar has experienced a broad pullback, providing some relief to the yen, although it remains only 0.9% stronger for the year and is near lows against the euro and sterling [6][12] Federal Reserve Outlook - Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, influenced by recent shifts in Fed easing expectations [7][12] - The dollar faced its worst week in four months, impacted by the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair and expectations of a dovish policy shift [8][12] Other Currency Movements - The euro slightly increased by 0.02% to $1.1600 against a weaker dollar, while the British pound remained stable at $1.3240 after a positive budget announcement [6][7][12] - The Australian dollar decreased by 0.08% to $0.6543, and the New Zealand dollar fell by 0.09% to $0.5733, reflecting broader market trends [9][12] Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin dropped by 3.6% to $87,881.82, while ether fell by 5% to $2,871.59, indicating volatility in the cryptocurrency market [10][12]

As the US options market heads for a sixth straight year of record volume, some best-known names in the industry are growing nervous about its over-reliance on a small group of banks to guarantee trades for the biggest market makers. Every listed US options trade goes through The Options Clearing Corp., a central counterparty that handles more than 70 million contracts a day during busy periods. The trades are submitted to the OCC by its members — who help trades get to the clearing house and act as guar ...

Core Points - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) resumed trading operations after a significant technical outage that affected key financial markets [1][3] - The outage was caused by a cooling system malfunction at a data center, leading to a halt in trading for several hours [4] - CME's Globex Futures & Options markets, which account for 90% of CME Group's volume, reopened at 8:30 a.m. New York time, but trading volume remained light [1][3] Trading Impact - The outage lasted longer than a previous incident in 2019, highlighting the importance of CME Group and its electronic trading platform [3] - Market participants expressed frustration over the potential loss of trading sessions for millions of contracts linked to major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 [3] - Following the resumption of trading, foreign-exchange and bond markets showed subdued activity, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries remaining stable at 3.99% [6] Market Reactions - Gold experienced erratic price movements due to thin liquidity, with the gap between bids and offers widening [7] - US crude and palm oil markets were also impacted, with some trading volumes shifting to alternative platforms as liquidity diminished [7] - The Canadian dollar showed strength against the US dollar following better-than-expected economic growth data from Canada [6]

Core Insights - The CME has resumed trading after a significant outage caused by a cooling issue, potentially exacerbated by low staffing levels during the Thanksgiving holiday [1][2][4] - Market participants reacted differently, with some taking advantage of price discrepancies while others paused trading due to risk concerns [2][3] - The outage led to a widening of spreads in Europe, although the deep liquidity pools prevented a severe market impact [3][4] Group 1 - The outage at the CME was attributed to a cooling issue, with speculation about low staffing levels during the holiday period [1][2] - Traders expressed mixed reactions, with some looking to exploit price differences while others opted to refrain from trading due to heightened risks [2][3] - Despite the outage, there was no significant contagion effect in the market, with US futures showing slight increases and Treasuries remaining steady [4]