Core Insights - Carrier Global (CARR) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 5, 2026, with earnings estimated at 36 cents per share, reflecting a 10% decrease over the past 30 days but a year-over-year increase of 33.33% [1] - Revenue estimates for the quarter are pegged at $5.04 billion, indicating a 2.04% year-over-year decline [1] Financial Performance Expectations - For the full year 2025, Carrier Global anticipates sales of $22 billion, indicating flat organic growth, with adjusted earnings expected at $2.65 per share, representing a year-over-year growth of 4% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is $21.95 billion, reflecting an 8.54% year-over-year decline, while the consensus for earnings is $2.61 per share, down 3 cents over the past 30 days, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 1.95% [2] Historical Performance - Carrier Global has consistently surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 10.22% [3] Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - The fourth-quarter performance is expected to benefit from strong momentum in the Commercial HVAC and aftermarket services segments, particularly in the Americas, where the Commercial HVAC segment is projected to grow over 25% for 2025 [5] - Aftermarket services have been experiencing double-digit growth for several years, a trend likely to continue in the upcoming quarter [6] - The integration of Viessmann Climate Solutions and the launch of new product lines are expected to enhance heat pump volumes and market reach [6] Challenges - Weakness in the residential and light commercial businesses, especially in the Americas and Europe, poses a concern, with CSA Resi sales expected to decline approximately 30% in Q4 due to ongoing destocking efforts and sluggish demand in the residential market [7][9] Earnings Prediction Model - According to the Zacks model, Carrier Global has an Earnings ESP of -1.13% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating lower odds of an earnings beat [8]

Company Overview - Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE:CARR) specializes in climate and energy solutions through HVAC and refrigeration products and services [3] Performance Insights - The company reported in-line sales with a solid earnings beat, although there was surprising softness in its residential business [3] - The commercial business is performing exceptionally well, particularly in climate control and data center solutions [3] Management Commentary - Jim Cramer expressed confidence in CEO Dave Gitlin's leadership and recent acquisition strategy, despite some concerns regarding reliance on the European market [1][3] - Cramer recommends buying the stock now and holding it for the long term [1]

Core Insights - Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) is set to release its first-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on February 4, 2026, before market open [1] - The company has consistently surpassed earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.6% [1] - In the last reported quarter, JCI's earnings were $1.26 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.20 by 5% [1] Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for JCI's revenues is $5.7 billion, reflecting a 4.3% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Adjusted earnings are estimated at 84 cents per share, indicating a significant increase of 31.3% year over year [2] Segment Performance - The Americas segment is projected to generate revenues of $3.73 billion, marking a 35.9% increase from the previous year, driven by HVAC platforms in data centers and strong controls businesses [3] - The EMEA segment is expected to report revenues of $1.27 billion, an 18.2% increase year over year, supported by service, fire and security, and applied HVAC businesses [4] - The Asia Pacific segment is anticipated to see revenues rise by 25.4% year over year to $661 million, bolstered by solid momentum in the service and products and systems business [5] Cost and Margin Pressures - Rising selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses are expected to negatively impact JCI's bottom line, attributed to high organizational realignment and separation costs [6] - The company's significant international operations may face profitability challenges due to foreign currency headwinds [6] Earnings Prediction - JCI has an Earnings ESP of -0.35%, with the Most Accurate Estimate at 83 cents per share, which is below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 84 cents [8] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a neutral outlook for earnings performance [8]

Core Insights - Carrier Abound has launched a new generative AI feature called "Tell Me More" within its Abound™ Insights Assistant application, aimed at enhancing operational performance for building operations teams [1][2] - The feature is designed to help facility managers and technicians interpret AI-driven predictive insights more effectively, enabling quicker and more confident decision-making [2][3] Product Features - "Tell Me More" integrates equipment operations and maintenance learning from the Abound Insights platform with generative AI, creating a conversational experience that supports technician workflows and knowledge transfer [3] - The feature provides context to predictive insights and recommended actions, reducing ambiguity and facilitating faster issue resolution, which in turn improves equipment uptime and energy efficiency [4] Market Context - The Abound platform currently connects to over 150,000 pieces of equipment across various building environments, delivering predictive insights that align performance with operational needs [5] - Carrier is focused on advancing intelligent and sustainable building solutions by leveraging AI at scale, helping customers operate more efficiently while preparing for a resilient future [5]

Core Insights - Garrett Motion Inc. has introduced a breakthrough oil-free centrifugal compressor technology for HVAC systems, aiming to cover cooling demands from 7 to 500 Tons (25 to 1,750 kWc) [2][3] - The company plans to generate $1 billion in revenues outside its Turbo automotive business by 2030, leveraging proven automotive technologies for industrial HVAC applications [3] Technology and Innovation - The new HVAC compressor technology offers a superior alternative to existing solutions such as scroll, screw, and magnetic bearing-based compressors, utilizing efficient turbo machinery and high-speed electric motors [3] - The compressors are designed to enable significant energy savings of over 10% in real-life applications compared to current solutions [5] Sustainability and Cost Efficiency - Garrett's compressors support sustainability goals by facilitating the use of next-generation ultra-low GWP refrigerants and providing cost savings through lower energy consumption and reduced maintenance needs [4] - The compact and lightweight design allows for retrofitting onto existing installations, ensuring a fast payback for end users [4] Market Applications - The comprehensive portfolio of oil-free centrifugal compressors is tailored for various commercial HVAC needs, including rooftop units, chillers for comfort cooling, data center cooling, and battery energy storage applications [5] - Customer testing samples are currently available, with production set to begin in late 2026 [6]

Core Insights - Trane Technologies and Garrett Motion have announced a strategic collaboration to develop oil-free centrifugal compressor technology for commercial HVAC applications [1][2][3] Group 1: Collaboration Details - The partnership combines Trane's expertise in Commercial HVAC systems with Garrett's advanced oil-free high-speed centrifugal compressor technology, which has shown significant energy efficiency improvements [2][4] - The companies will jointly develop compressor solutions for various Trane systems, including rooftop units and modular chillers, with field testing and production set to begin in 2026 [3][4] Group 2: Innovation and Sustainability - This collaboration aims to enhance energy efficiency and support decarbonization goals, reflecting both companies' commitment to sustainable HVAC solutions [4][5] - The partnership will also explore future applications for high-speed centrifugal technologies in smaller HVAC systems and emerging cooling needs [4]

Core Insights - Trane Technologies plc is a leader in climate innovation, focusing on sustainable solutions for buildings, homes, and transportation, particularly in the HVAC sector [1] Financial Performance - Oppenheimer maintained an "Outperform" rating for Trane, raising the price target to $468 from $460 after the company reported earnings per share of $2.86, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.82 [2][3][6] - Trane's quarterly revenue reached $5.14 billion, surpassing analyst predictions of $5.09 billion, indicating strong financial performance [3][6] - The company achieved a return on equity of 37.04% and a net margin of 13.93%, reflecting robust financial metrics [4][6] Market Activity - The stock price of Trane was $426.07, showing an 8.09% increase, with fluctuations between a low of $406.50 and a high of $429.13 on the trading day [4][5] - The market capitalization of Trane is approximately $94.48 billion, with a trading volume of 4.41 million shares, indicating strong investor interest [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved an 11% revenue compound annual growth rate since 2020 and a 24% adjusted EPS compound annual growth rate [7] - Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by 470 basis points, and free cash flow conversion reached 106% [7] - The fourth quarter saw organic revenue growth of 4%, with adjusted EPS growth of 10% [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Americas Commercial HVAC bookings increased by over 35% year-over-year, with a record Q4 organic bookings [8] - Applied Solutions bookings surged more than 120%, achieving a record book-to-bill ratio of 200% [8] - The services business, accounting for about one-third of enterprise revenue, has maintained a low teens compound annual growth rate since 2020 [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas, commercial HVAC revenue grew in low double digits, while residential bookings were up mid-single digits but revenues declined mid-teens [11] - EMEA Commercial HVAC bookings were robust, up mid-teens, with revenues up mid-single digits [12] - Asia Pacific faced challenges, particularly in China, with double-digit declines in bookings and revenue [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a purpose-driven strategy focused on energy efficiency and sustainability, positioning itself to meet growing customer demand for smarter energy solutions [4] - Continued investment in innovation, growth, and digital capabilities is expected to drive future growth, particularly in services [10] - The company plans to deploy between $2.8 billion and $3.3 billion in 2026, with a focus on strategic M&A and share repurchases [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a gradual recovery in residential markets and transport refrigeration, with expectations for improved performance in the second half of 2026 [10][17] - The company is optimistic about its backlog and pipeline, indicating strong visibility for future revenues [9][16] - Management remains confident in delivering differentiated long-term value and advancing sustainability initiatives [24] Other Important Information - The company completed or committed approximately $3.2 billion in capital allocation in 2025, including dividends, M&A, and share repurchases [21] - The acquisition of Stellar Energy is expected to enhance capabilities in modular design and meet growing demand for prefabricated cooling systems [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on revenue for Americas Commercial HVAC - Management expects strong growth in the first quarter, around 7%-8%, increasing to low teens in the second half of the year due to strong bookings [26][27] Question: Confidence in residential inventory normalization - Management believes inventory is now at the right level and anticipates a flat to down 5% performance in residential for 2026 [30][31] Question: Margin pressure in Q4 and future expectations - Management indicated that margins were impacted by residential deleverage but expects to see improvements in 2026 with a target of 25% or higher organic incrementals [53][54] Question: Positioning in the data center market - Management confirmed strong demand in the data center vertical and emphasized ongoing innovation in thermal management systems [57][59] Question: Pricing dynamics in the residential market - Management noted that pricing has not faded, and any declines in residential revenue are primarily due to volume rather than pricing [92][103]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a strong fourth quarter performance with organic revenue growth of 4% and adjusted EPS growth of 10% [6][11] - Free cash flow remained robust, supporting strategic M&A, dividends, and share repurchases [4][5] - The company reported a record backlog of $7.8 billion, with exceptional enterprise organic bookings up 22% [6][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Americas Commercial HVAC bookings increased by over 35% year-over-year, contributing significantly to the overall growth [6][10] - Applied Solutions bookings surged more than 120%, achieving a record book-to-bill ratio of 200% [6][10] - EMEA HVAC bookings grew mid-teens, while residential bookings were up mid-single digits, but revenues declined mid-teens due to inventory normalization [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas Commercial HVAC market showed strong growth, while residential markets faced challenges with a projected decline of up to 5% [10][14] - EMEA transport markets are expected to be flat to modestly lower, while Asia Pacific faced challenges, particularly in China, with double-digit declines in bookings and revenue [10][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a purpose-driven strategy focused on sustainability and performance, positioning itself to meet growing energy demands through innovation [3][4] - Continued investment in services and digital capabilities is expected to drive growth, particularly in the commercial HVAC sector [9][18] - The acquisition of Stellar Energy is aimed at enhancing modular design capabilities and addressing supply chain constraints [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in strong growth for 2026, driven by exceptional bookings and a robust backlog [10][14] - The outlook for the residential market is cautious, with expectations of a gradual recovery in the second half of 2026 [14][15] - Management highlighted the importance of disciplined execution and innovation in maintaining competitive advantage [3][21] Other Important Information - The company plans to deploy between $2.8 billion and $3.3 billion in 2026, with a focus on strategic M&A and share repurchases [18][19] - The company expects to maintain a strong balance sheet and free cash flow conversion of 100% or greater [16][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on revenue for Americas Commercial HVAC - Management indicated strong bookings growth in the second half of 2025, expecting revenue growth of 7%-8% in Q1 2026, increasing to low teens in the second half [22][24] Question: Confidence in U.S. Residential HVAC inventory and pricing - Management confirmed that inventory levels are normalized and pricing has not faded, with expectations of flat to down 5% in 2026 driven by volume [25][26][28] Question: Broadening of orders among end markets - Management noted broad-based growth across multiple verticals, including data centers, with encouraging signs in previously weak sectors like retail and office [33][34] Question: Impact of customer lead times on orders - Management stated that there have been no significant changes in lead times, maintaining competitiveness in delivery [39][40] Question: European margins and price-cost dynamics - Management expects European margins to improve in 2026, with a target of 25% or better organic incrementals across segments [48][50] Question: Biopharma reshoring visibility - Management is optimistic about large pharma projects related to reshoring, tracking several mega projects in the pipeline [78][80] Question: Data center HVAC content and future trends - Management believes the fraction of spending on HVAC in data centers will remain stable, with innovations in thermal management systems expected [87][88]

Fourth-Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results January 29, 2026 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of securities laws, which are statements that are not historical facts, including statements that relate to our future financial performance and targets, including revenue, EPS, operating income, operation margin and earnings; operating leverage; our business operations; demand for our products and services, including bookings and backlog; capital d ...