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Aris Mining's Rising AISC a Drag: Time to Tighten Cost Discipline?
ZACKS· 2025-06-20 13:10
Core Insights - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) reported an increase in its first-quarter all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) per ounce, indicating a deterioration in cost efficiency [1][3] - The Segovia Operations in Colombia showed AISC of $1,570 per ounce, up from $1,485 per ounce in the previous quarter and $1,434 per ounce in the same quarter last year [1] - Consolidated AISC rose approximately 6% year over year to $1,667 per ounce [1][7] Cost Drivers - The year-over-year increase in ARMN's costs was attributed to higher costs in purchased mill feed from Contract Mining Partners (CMPs), increased royalty and social contributions costs, and rising processing and mining costs [2][3] - High inflation rates in Colombia have significantly impacted Aris Mining's operating costs [3] Peer Comparison - B2Gold Corp. (BTG) reported a roughly 14% year-over-year increase in consolidated AISC to $1,533 per ounce, facing similar cost inflation pressures [4] - AngloGold Ashanti plc's (AU) first-quarter total AISC increased by 1% year over year to $1,640 per ounce, with a notable 37% surge in AISC for non-managed joint ventures [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - ARMN shares have surged 95.7% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's rise of 55.4% [6][7] - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 4.63, which is approximately 67.1% lower than the industry average of 14.08X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARMN's earnings in 2025 and 2026 implies significant year-over-year growth of 226.5% and 80.6%, respectively [9]
Newmont Gains 22% in 3 Months: How Should Investors Play the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-06-19 12:46
Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation's shares have increased by 22% over the past three months, driven by rising gold prices amid trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly due to the Israel-Iran conflict [1][7]. Performance Comparison - NEM stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 17% rise and the S&P 500's increase of 5.7% [2]. - Among peers, Barrick Mining Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, and Kinross Gold Corporation have gained 9.6%, 16.4%, and 26% respectively during the same period [2]. Technical Indicators - Technical indicators show bullish momentum for NEM, with the stock trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), indicating a long-term uptrend [5]. Financial Strength - Newmont generated a record $1.2 billion in free cash flow in Q1 2025, showcasing solid financial strength [7]. - The company has a liquidity position of $8.8 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of approximately $4.7 billion [13]. - Operating cash flow from continuing operations increased by roughly 162% year-over-year to around $2 billion in Q1 2025 [13]. Growth Projects and Acquisitions - Newmont is pursuing several growth projects, including the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia and the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, aimed at expanding production capacity and extending mine life [10]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has created a leading portfolio with a multi-decade production profile, expected to deliver significant shareholder value and synergies of $500 million annually [11]. Divestitures - Newmont has divested non-core assets, generating total after-tax cash proceeds of approximately $2.55 billion from various sales [12]. Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have increased by roughly 29% this year, reaching a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, driven by global trade tensions and central bank purchases [14][16]. - Currently, gold prices are hovering near $3,400 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties [16]. Dividend and Earnings Estimates - NEM offers a dividend yield of 1.7% with a payout ratio of 24%, indicating a sustainable dividend [17]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised higher, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate suggesting a year-over-year growth of 20.1% [18]. Valuation - NEM stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 13.21X, which is about 7% lower than the industry average of 14.21X [20]. Investment Outlook - Newmont presents an attractive investment case backed by a robust portfolio of growth projects, strong performance of Tier 1 assets, and solid financial health, making it a prudent choice for investors [23].
AEM's Reserve Growth Spurs Confidence: Can It Keep Drilling Success?
ZACKS· 2025-06-19 12:41
Core Insights - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) has made significant progress in mineral reserve replacement, with proven and probable gold reserves increasing by 0.9% year-over-year to 54.3 million ounces by the end of 2024, and inferred mineral resources expanding by approximately 9% to 36.2 million ounces due to successful exploration drilling [1][8] Group 1: Exploration and Resource Expansion - AEM's exploration drilling campaigns in the first quarter of 2025 focused on extending the East Gouldie deposit and the newly discovered Eclipse zone, indicating potential for further mineral resource and reserve additions by the end of 2025 [2][4] - Shallow drilling at the Hope Bay Patch 7 and drilling at the Marban deposit, acquired from O3 Mining, also suggest opportunities for mineral resource expansion [3][4] Group 2: Competitive Positioning - AEM's initiatives in expanding its reserve base and inferred resources position it as a growth-oriented player among major peers, with a focus on maintaining drilling momentum and converting potential into formally declared reserves [4] - In comparison, Newmont Corporation reported a 1.3% decline in gold reserves to 134.1 million ounces, while Barrick Mining Corporation saw a significant increase of approximately 17.4 million ounces, highlighting AEM's proactive approach in reserve replacement [5][6] Group 3: Stock Performance and Valuation - AEM's shares have increased by 56.8% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's rise of 56.4%, driven by strong gold prices [7][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEM's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates a year-over-year rise of 42.6% and 0.8%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [9] - AEM is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 20.27, which is approximately 42.6% higher than the industry average of 14.21 [11]
NEM's Gold Output Hit by Divestments: Can Tier-1 Assets Close the Gap?
ZACKS· 2025-06-18 13:25
Group 1: Newmont Corporation Performance - Newmont Corporation reported a decline in gold production for Q1 2025, with a year-over-year decrease of approximately 8% and a sequential decline of 19%, totaling 1.54 million ounces due to strategic divestment of non-core assets [1][7] - The company anticipates maintaining its expected gold production for 2025 at about 5.9 million ounces, with Q2 production expected to be relatively flat compared to Q1, as gains from some mines will be offset by declines in others [2][7] - Newmont's shift to a high-quality, Tier-1 portfolio is a long-term strategy aimed at reliability and efficiency, but uncertainties remain regarding the ability of these mines to ramp up production sufficiently to meet full-year targets [5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Barrick Mining Corporation experienced a significant decline in gold production in Q1 2025, with a 19% drop year-over-year and a 30% fall from the previous quarter, primarily due to operational challenges and disputes with the Malian government [3] - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited saw a modest year-over-year decline of around 0.5% in gold production, totaling 873,794 ounces, but remains on track to meet its 2025 production target of approximately 3.3-3.5 million ounces [4] Group 3: Market and Valuation Insights - Newmont's shares have increased by 57.2% year-to-date, slightly underperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's rise of 58.5%, driven largely by a rally in gold prices [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Newmont's earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 20.1% for 2025 and 11.7% for 2026, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [8] - Newmont is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 13.28, which is about 7.8% lower than the industry average of 14.4X, and carries a Value Score of B [10]
Agnico Eagle Trades at a Premium Valuation: How to Play the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-06-16 13:10
Core Viewpoint - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) is currently trading at a premium valuation compared to its peers and the industry average, driven by strong performance in gold prices and production [1][6][10]. Financial Performance - AEM's shares have increased by 93.7% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 61.6% and the S&P 500's increase of 9.2% [3][6]. - The company reported operating cash flow of $1,044 million in the first quarter, a 33% year-over-year increase, and free cash flows of $594 million, up around 50% year over year [14][15]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEM's 2025 earnings is projected at $6.03, indicating a year-over-year growth of 42.6% [19]. Valuation Metrics - AEM is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 20.57X, which is approximately 42.7% higher than the Zacks Mining – Gold industry average of 14.41X [1][6]. - The company has a Value Score of C, while its peers Barrick Mining and Kinross Gold have Value Scores of A [1]. Growth Drivers - AEM is advancing several key projects, including the Odyssey project and the Hope Bay Project, which is expected to significantly contribute to cash flow generation [11][12]. - The merger with Kirkland Lake Gold has positioned AEM as a leading senior gold producer with a strong pipeline of development projects [13]. Cost Considerations - AEM's total cash costs per ounce of gold were $903 in the first quarter, with projections for 2025 ranging from $915 to $965 [18]. - The company anticipates an increase in all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) for the remainder of 2025, which may impact profit margins [18]. Dividend Information - AEM offers a dividend yield of 1.3% with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 10.3% and a payout ratio of 32% [17].
AEM's Solid FCF Places It on Firm Footing: Can It Fuel Future Growth?
ZACKS· 2025-06-13 12:31
Core Insights - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) reported a first-quarter free cash flow of $594 million, a 50% increase from $396 million a year ago, driven by strong gold prices, disciplined capital spending, and robust operational results [2][8] - The company aims to invest in growth initiatives, including underground expansion at Canadian Malartic, Hope Bay, and Detour Lake, while also focusing on debt repayments and shareholder returns [3][4] - AEM returned approximately $920 million to shareholders through dividends and repurchases last year, with $251 million returned in the first quarter of this year [4][8] Financial Performance - AEM's free cash flow before working capital adjustments reached $759 million, nearly double the prior year's amount [2] - The company reduced its net debt by $212 million sequentially, ending the first quarter with a net debt of just $5 million [3][8] - AEM's shares have increased by 56.1% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's rise of 49.7% [7] Comparison with Peers - Newmont Corporation (NEM) achieved a record first-quarter free cash flow of $1.2 billion, a significant turnaround from a negative $74 million in the same period last year, although it faces headwinds for the second quarter [5] - Barrick Mining Corporation (B) reported a free cash flow of $375 million for the first quarter, a nearly 12-fold increase year-over-year, driven by higher operating cash flows [6] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - AEM is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 20.18, approximately 50% higher than the industry average of 13.46 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEM's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates a year-over-year rise of 42.6% and 0.8%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [11]
Equinox Gold Stock Trading Cheaper Than Industry: Should You Buy Now?
ZACKS· 2025-06-12 12:41
Valuation and Market Position - Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX) is currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 6.54X, which represents a 51.2% discount to the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's average of 13.4X [1][5] - EQX's valuation is lower than key peers such as B2Gold Corp. (BTG), Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO), and IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG), all of which have a Value Score of A [1][5] Technical Indicators - EQX stock broke out above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on May 30, 2025, and is currently trading above the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend [2][3] Production Expansion and Growth Strategy - Equinox Gold is expanding production capacity and acquiring Calibre Mining Corp. to boost output beyond 1.2 million ounces annually [5][10] - The company has five producing mines and three expansion projects expected to add approximately 300,000 ounces of annual production in the coming years [8] - Greenstone mine is ramping up towards a full production target of 196,000 tons per day, expected to produce around 390,000 ounces of gold annually at full capacity [9] - The acquisition of Calibre includes the Valentine Gold Mine, which is anticipated to start production in Q3 2025, further enhancing EQX's asset base [10][11] Financial Performance and Cash Flow - EQX ended the first quarter with approximately $173 million in unrestricted cash and $65 million in an undrawn credit facility, indicating strong liquidity [15] - The company generated cash flow from operations of $73.3 million in the first quarter, supporting its growth projects [15] Gold Price Impact - Gold prices have increased by roughly 27% this year, driven by global trade tensions and central bank purchases, which are expected to enhance EQX's profitability [12][14] - Despite a decline from April 2025 highs, gold prices remain favorable, hovering above $3,300 per ounce, which is anticipated to boost EQX's cash flow generation [14] Cost Challenges - EQX's all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) rose to $2,065 per ounce, a 6% increase from the previous year, indicating operational cost inflation [16] - The suspension of operations at the Los Filos mine is expected to contribute to ongoing cost pressures, with approximately $35 million in charges anticipated in Q2 2025 [17] Stock Performance - EQX shares have gained 36% over the past year, underperforming the industry average of 51.7% but outperforming the S&P 500's rise of 11.2% [18] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for EQX have been revised downward recently, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 implies year-over-year increases of 230% and 106%, respectively [21] Conclusion - With a strong expansion roadmap and an upcoming merger, EQX is positioned for growth, although high costs may pose challenges in the near term [22]
EQX's AISC Spike Signals Pressure, But H2 Offers Path to Cost Relief
ZACKS· 2025-06-11 12:56
Core Insights - Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX) reported a significant increase in all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) to $2,065 per ounce, a rise of approximately 6% from $1,950 per ounce in the same quarter last year, despite a 76% increase in revenues driven by a 38% rise in realized gold prices and a 27% increase in ounces sold [1][7] Financial Performance - Revenues surged by 76% due to higher gold prices and increased sales volume [1] - AISC excluding the Los Filos mine, which is indefinitely suspended, increased by 9% to $1,979 per ounce, indicating ongoing operational cost inflation [2] - The company anticipates around $35 million in charges related to the suspension and maintenance of the Los Filos mine in the second quarter [3] Operational Challenges - Higher operational costs are attributed to the suspension of the Los Filos mine and unplanned maintenance at the Greenstone mine in Canada, which faced winter challenges [2][3] - The company expects to achieve cost efficiency through increased production in the second half of 2025 and synergies from the merger with Calibre Mining Corp. [3] Industry Comparison - B2Gold Corp. (BTG) reported AISC of $1,533 per ounce, reflecting a 14% increase year-over-year due to cost inflation across all sites [4] - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) experienced a slight decline in AISC by 0.6% in the first quarter, but forecasts an increase for the remainder of 2025 [5] Valuation Metrics - EQX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 6.51, which is approximately 52.2% lower than the industry average of 13.62 [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a year-over-year earnings increase of 230% for 2025 and 106% for 2026, although EPS estimates have been trending lower recently [10]
Aris Mining Stock Rockets 62% in 3 Months: What Should You Do Now?
ZACKS· 2025-06-10 12:50
Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) has experienced a significant share price increase of 62.3% over the past three months, outperforming both the Zacks Mining – Gold industry and the S&P 500, driven by rising gold prices and strong operational performance [1][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - ARMN shares have outperformed its peers, with B2Gold Corp. (BTG) and AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) gaining 37% and 44.5%, respectively, during the same period [1]. - Technical indicators show ARMN stock surpassed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 4, 2025, and is currently trading above the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend [5][7]. Group 2: Production and Growth Prospects - ARMN reported an 8% year-over-year increase in gold production for the first quarter, positioning the company to meet its full-year production guidance of 230,000 to 275,000 ounces [10]. - The Segovia Operations in Colombia are a key contributor to ARMN's production, with ongoing expansion projects expected to enhance production rates significantly [11][12]. - ARMN aims for an annual production rate of approximately 500,000 ounces of gold following the commissioning of the Segovia plant expansion [12]. Group 3: Financial Health - ARMN ended the first quarter with a cash balance of $240 million and generated $40 million in cash flow, supporting its strategic growth initiatives [17]. - The company has successfully raised over $19.4 million from the exercise of in-the-money warrants, further strengthening its balance sheet for future investments [17]. Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - ARMN is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 4.44X, representing a 67% discount compared to the industry average of 13.49X [18]. - Earnings estimates for ARMN have been revised upward, with projected year-over-year increases of 226.5% and 80.6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [21].
AEM's Lower AISC Signals Strong Cost Discipline: Can It Be Sustained?
ZACKS· 2025-06-04 12:21
Core Insights - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) achieved a significant milestone by reducing its all-in sustaining costs (AISC) to $1,183 per ounce in Q1 2025, a 10% decrease from the previous quarter, primarily due to deferred capital expenditures at key operations [1][6] - In contrast, Newmont Corporation (NEM) reported an AISC of $1,651 per ounce, reflecting a 13% increase, attributed to a decline in production from non-core asset divestments [2] - Barrick Mining Corporation (B) experienced a 22% increase in AISC to $1,775 per ounce, influenced by operational challenges and lower production due to the suspension of operations at its Loulo-Gounkoto mine [3] Company Performance - AEM's record-high operating margin in Q1 2025 highlights its effective cost control measures [1][6] - AEM anticipates higher AISC in the latter part of 2025, forecasting AISC between $1,250 and $1,300 per ounce, indicating a year-over-year increase at the midpoint [4][6] - AEM's shares have increased by 56.6% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's rise of 55.6% [5] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - AEM is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 20.26, which is a 41.1% premium to the industry average of 14.36 [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEM's earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 42.6% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [9]