Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings available for distribution (EAD) per average share of 73 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.4% and reflecting a 7.4% increase from the previous year, primarily driven by a significant rise in net interest income (NII) [1][10] Financial Performance - NLY's net interest income (NII) for the second quarter of 2025 was $273.2 million, a substantial increase from $53.6 million in the same quarter of the previous year, attributed to rising loan demand and lower mortgage rates [3][10] - The company's 2025 earnings outlook has been raised, supported by tightening spreads and improving asset prices [10] Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024 has led to a slight decline in mortgage rates, improving housing affordability [2] - With lower rates and balanced supply/affordability in the mortgage market, loan demand is increasing, which is beneficial for NLY's NII [3] Competitive Landscape - AGNC Investment's NII also benefited from lower mortgage rates, reporting $162 million in the second quarter of 2025, compared to a net interest expense of $3 million in the prior-year quarter [5] - Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) experienced a decline in NII by 21.9% year over year to $68.7 million in the second quarter of 2025, but is expected to see an increase in net interest spreads due to declining mortgage rates [7] Valuation Metrics - NLY shares have appreciated by 22.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 8.1% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.07X, which is above the industry average of 0.96X [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NLY's 2025 earnings implies a year-over-year growth of 6.3%, with the estimate revised upward over the past week [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value per share decreased by 3% from the prior quarter to $18.45, while earnings available for distribution per share increased by $0.01 to $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [19][20] - The economic return for Q2 was 0.7%, bringing the year-to-date economic return to 3.7% [7][20] - The net interest spread excluding PAA increased to 1.47% in Q2 compared to 1.24% a year ago, and the net interest margin excluding PAA was 1.71% in Q2 compared to 1.58% in Q2 2024 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency portfolio ended the quarter at nearly $80 billion in market value, up 6% quarter over quarter, with a growth of approximately $4.5 billion in notional terms [9][10] - The residential credit portfolio remained relatively unchanged at $6.6 billion in market value, with Onslow Bay achieving its highest quarterly securitization activity to date, closing $3.6 billion across seven transactions [12][13] - The MSR portfolio ended the quarter unchanged at $3.3 billion in market value, with solid fundamental performance and a three-month CPR of 4.6% [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy is expected to grow around 1% annualized for the first half of the year, with an unemployment rate marginally lowered to 4.1% [5][6] - Inflation is likely to have run at the slowest level in the past three quarters, with the Fed expected to deliver two interest rate cuts in 2025 [6][7] - Agency MBS spreads widened by 5 to 10 basis points on the quarter, despite a positive reversal in sentiment towards risk assets [7][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains optimistic about the agency sector, citing sound fundamentals and potential catalysts for improvement in Agency MBS technicals [11] - The focus is on further building out flow servicing relationships and expanding subservicing and recapture partnerships to capitalize on MSR opportunities [17] - The company plans to strategically grow its residential credit and MSR portfolios while maintaining a flexible investment approach with low leverage and ample liquidity [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macroeconomic environment has shown resilience, with a balanced labor market and muted layoffs, affirming the Fed's wait-and-see stance [5][6] - The company expects to be overweight in agency investments due to historically attractive spread levels, while also anticipating growth in residential credit and MSR portfolios [17] - Management expressed confidence in covering and potentially out-earning the dividend for the remainder of the year, given the current economic return [27][28] Other Important Information - The company raised over $750 million of accretive capital in Q2, predominantly deployed in the agency sector, with leverage increasing modestly to 5.8 turns [8] - The company has diversified its funding sources significantly, with non-mark-to-market capacity growing from $150 million to $1.9 billion [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on book value quarter to date - The book value was up about 0.5% pre-dividend accrual, indicating a 1.5% economic return [26] Question: Comfort level with the dividend - Management expressed confidence in covering the dividend, expecting to out-earn it for the remainder of the year [27][28] Question: Managing the portfolio through volatility - Management was comfortable allowing leverage to rise due to a strong liquidity position and focused on managing rate exposure [32][34] Question: Dynamics of the credit portfolio - The quality of the credit portfolio is high, with proactive measures taken to tighten credit standards [45][46] Question: Expectations for GSE reform - Management expects GSE reform to be prioritized now that the tax bill is completed, which could create opportunities for the company [56] Question: Demand for Agency MBS - Demand from fixed income funds has been strong, and the company expects MBS spreads to tighten even without additional demand from banks [76][77]

Core Insights - AGNC Investment Corp. reported a tangible net book value (TNBV) decline of 7.0% and net spread earnings that fell short of expectations, with non-GAAP earnings per share at $0.38, below the $0.41 analyst estimate [1][2] - Revenue for the quarter was $830 million, lower than the estimated $862.75 million, although it represented a 19.4% increase year-over-year [2][6] - The company faces ongoing pressure on margins and capital, with a narrowing buffer between earnings and dividend obligations [1][10] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS decreased from $0.53 in Q2 2024 to $0.38 in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 28.3% [2] - TNBV per share fell from $8.40 to $7.81, a 7.0% decrease year-over-year [2][6] - Net income per share (diluted) reported a loss of $0.17, compared to a loss of $0.11 in the previous year, marking a 54.5% decline [2] Business Overview - AGNC operates as a mortgage REIT, primarily investing in securities backed by U.S. government agencies [3] - The company's strategy focuses on profiting from the spread between yields on mortgage-backed securities and borrowing costs [3] Market Conditions - The company faced significant spread widening due to interest rate swings and negative sentiment towards Agency MBS, leading to margin compression [5][9] - The annualized net interest spread declined to 2.01% from 2.12% in the prior quarter, with average asset yields at 4.83% and funding costs at 2.86% [5] Risk Management - AGNC's risk management strategy includes using interest rate swaps and short positions in U.S. Treasuries to hedge funding costs, with a notional swap hedge of $45.1 billion [9] - The company maintained a leverage ratio of 7.6 times at quarter-end, with a robust liquidity position of $6.4 billion in unencumbered cash and Agency MBS [7][9] Dividend and Future Outlook - The declared dividend remained unchanged at $0.36 per share, reflecting the company's REIT status requirement [10] - Management expressed a favorable outlook for levered and hedged Agency MBS investments, citing high mortgage spreads and potential regulatory changes [11]

Company Announcement - Sachem Capital Corp. will release its second quarter 2025 financial results before market open on August 5, 2025 [1] - A webcast and conference call to discuss the results will be held on August 5, 2025, at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time [1] Webcast and Conference Call Details - A webcast of the conference call will be available on the Investors section of the Company's website [2] - Participants should register and install necessary audio software at least 15 minutes prior to the scheduled start time [2] Telephone Conference Call Participation - Domestic dial-in number: 1-844-825-9789; International dial-in number: 1-412-317-5180 [3] - Conference call playback available until August 19, 2025, with domestic playback number: 1-844-512-2921; International playback number: 1-412-317-6671 [3] - Passcode for playback: 10201468 [3] Company Overview - Sachem Capital Corp. is a mortgage REIT specializing in originating, underwriting, funding, servicing, and managing a portfolio of loans secured by first mortgages on real property [3] - The Company offers short-term secured, nonbanking loans to real estate investors for property acquisition, renovation, development, rehabilitation, or improvement [3] - Primary underwriting criteria include a conservative loan to value ratio, with loans secured by first mortgage liens on real estate and personally guaranteed by the borrower’s principal(s) [3] - The Company also engages in opportunistic real estate purchases apart from its lending activities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Both Orchid Island Capital (ORC) and Starwood Property Trust (STWD) are mortgage REITs with different investment strategies, where ORC focuses on agency residential mortgage-backed securities and STWD has a diversified portfolio including commercial real estate lending [1][2] Summary of ORC - ORC exclusively invests in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), which limits credit risks but increases sensitivity to interest rate movements [3] - The recent decline in mortgage rates is expected to improve ORC's book value as spreads in the Agency market tighten, enhancing net interest spread and overall yield [4] - ORC has a strong dividend yield of 20.4% and has increased its dividend three times in the past five years, with $446.5 million in cash and no debt as of March 31, 2025, indicating sustainable capital distribution [5] Summary of STWD - STWD's investment strategy includes commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and related commercial real estate assets, with a diversified portfolio valued at $1.02 billion as of March 31, 2025 [6] - The company has engaged in acquisitions and divestitures to optimize its portfolio, including the sale of 16 retail properties for $387.1 million, recognizing a gain of $92 million [7] - STWD has a concerning liquidity position with $692 million in cash and long-term debt of $18.4 billion, which may pose risks in a worsening macroeconomic environment [8] Performance and Valuation - In the past three months, STWD shares rose by 6.9% while ORC shares increased by 9.3%, outperforming the industry growth of 6.2% [11] - ORC is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 0.79X, lower than its five-year median of 0.90X, while STWD is at 1.03X, lower than its five-year median of 1.04X [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORC's earnings indicates significant growth of 450% in 2025 and 39.7% in 2026, while STWD's earnings are expected to decline by 8.9% in 2025 [18][20] Investment Outlook - ORC is viewed as a more resilient and better-valued option due to its focus on Agency RMBS in a declining rate environment, strong liquidity, and high dividend yield [22] - In contrast, STWD's heavy debt burden and weaker earnings outlook raise concerns, making ORC the more compelling opportunity for investors seeking stable income with lower risk [23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's market capitalization as of June 30 is over $1.5 billion, representing nearly 50% growth since June 2024 [8] - Net interest income continues to trend upwards as new investments with attractive yields are added to the portfolio [10] - The portfolio has grown to $14 billion, a 25% increase since the end of the first quarter and over 50% larger than the same time last year [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company raised $560 million of new capital this year, allowing it to continue raising capital at a premium to book value [11] - The investment portfolio grew by over $3 billion in the quarter, reflecting a strategic increase in leverage from 7.4% to 8.3% [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) continue to offer attractive liquidity, credit quality, and return potential, with ROEs on newly acquired positions ranging from the mid-teens to low 20% [18] - Mortgage spreads remain wide, and the net supply of Agency RMBS is low by historical standards, creating a medium-term headwind for spread tightening [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on raising capital, deploying it into historically cheap investments, and managing its portfolio through volatile periods [7] - A long-term strategy to build a world-class operating platform includes bringing several functions in-house to enhance scale and organizational resilience [13] - The company aims to be the manager of choice for the agency mortgage market, leveraging its position as a significant player in the mortgage REIT community [42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current environment as highly favorable for long-term capital deployment, with wide agency MBS spreads supported by a technical backdrop [22] - The company is well-prepared to capitalize on market dynamics and generate strong risk-adjusted returns despite potential volatility [22] Other Important Information - The company has appointed Michael Angelo as the chief legal officer and corporate secretary, bringing relevant experience from various financial institutions [5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the leverage range you're targeting? - Management indicated that leverage has been flexed down when the risk environment does not warrant incremental risk, and they are currently at a level that reflects a return to normal [29][30] Question: What conditions might require other investors to be more active in the mortgage-backed space? - Management noted that banks would likely return when they see actual Fed rate cuts, while money managers have been active due to attractive mortgage valuations relative to corporates [38][40] Question: What is the current thinking behind the coupon allocation between pools versus TBAs? - Management explained that they are favoring a larger pool position due to the stable economic return profile and the ability to hedge effectively with interest rate swaps [56][62] Question: Any thoughts on adding longer duration as you go down in coupon on the hedge side? - Management confirmed that their hedges remain focused on the longer part of the curve, targeting a duration that is generally flat with the overall portfolio [72][74] Question: Any one-time items in the G&A expense line item? - Management indicated that the first half of the year tends to be higher due to annual meetings and compensation increases, but they expect expenses to trend down in the latter half of the year [76]

Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment offers a high dividend yield exceeding 15%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 1.3% and the average REIT's 4.1%, but investors should be cautious as high yields do not guarantee sustainable income [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - AGNC Investment operates as a mortgage REIT, which differs from traditional property-owning REITs that buy and lease properties [2]. - The company purchases pooled mortgages that are structured into bond-like securities, resembling a bond mutual fund rather than direct property ownership [4]. Group 2: Dividend Trends - AGNC Investment's dividend has been on a declining trend for years, with historical volatility in its payouts [5]. - The mortgage REIT sector, including AGNC, often experiences fluctuating dividends, which can lead to yield traps for investors expecting consistent income [7]. Group 3: Total Return Perspective - AGNC Investment aims for attractive total returns, with reinvested dividends playing a crucial role in achieving this goal [8]. - Despite a significant drop in stock price, AGNC's total return has been competitive with the S&P 500, and in some periods, it has outperformed the index [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - For investors seeking strong long-term results, reinvesting dividends is essential, as spending them can lead to diminished income and capital [11]. - While there is potential for AGNC to increase its dividend, the company has a history of dividend cuts, making it important for investors to understand the inherent volatility in the mREIT business model [12].

Industry Overview - The Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry is experiencing volatility in mortgage rates due to macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to earnings pressure in the near term [1] - The industry consists of mortgage REITs (mREITs) that invest in and originate mortgages and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), focusing on residential or commercial mortgage markets [3] - Agency securities, backed by the federal government, are considered safer investments, limiting credit risks for mREITs [3] Current Challenges - High interest rates and volatility in mortgage markets are causing slight decreases in tangible book values for agency mortgage REITs, although they have been more stable than in 2023 [4] - The central bank's decision to maintain steady interest rates, despite a previous cut of 100 basis points in 2024, is increasing earnings pressure for highly leveraged mREITs [5] - Many industry players are cutting dividends to levels that can be covered by earnings, potentially leading to capital outflows and further declines in book values [5] Investment Strategies - mREITs are adopting a conservative approach to investments, focusing on risk and liquidity management, which may impede portfolio growth and robust returns in the short term [6] - Despite lower mortgage rates compared to last year, the demand for purchase applications and refinancing is improving, indicating some latent market demand [7] Performance Metrics - The Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry ranks 162, placing it in the bottom 34% of 246 Zacks industries, indicating underperformance in the near term [8] - The industry's current-year earnings estimate has decreased by 6.5% over the last year, reflecting a negative earnings outlook [9] - Over the past year, the industry has gained 2.7%, underperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector's rise of 18.7% and the S&P 500's growth of 12.5% [11] Valuation - The industry is trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/BV) ratio of 1.00X, compared to the S&P 500's 8.42X, indicating a significant discount [14] - The Zacks Finance sector's trailing 12-month P/BV is 4.26X, further highlighting the industry's undervaluation [16] Company Highlights - **Annaly Capital Management (NLY)**: Focuses on prudent asset selection and capital allocation, with a diversified investment strategy that includes traditional Agency MBSs and non-agency assets. The company's 2025 earnings are estimated at $2.87 per share, reflecting a 6.3% year-over-year increase [19][22] - **Dynex Capital (DX)**: Engages in mortgage and consumer finance, with a focus on multi-family and commercial real estate loans. The company's 2025 earnings estimates are $1.97 per share, indicating a significant year-over-year jump of 662.9% [25][28] - **Ellington Financial (EFC)**: Invests in a diverse array of financial assets, including residential and commercial mortgage loans. The company's 2025 earnings estimates are $1.65 per share, showing a year-over-year growth of 13% [31][34]

Core Insights - Albert Anthony is a Croatian-American business author and media contributor with a focus on financial markets, launching a book titled "Financial Markets: The Next Generation" in 2025 [1] - He has a non-traditional financial background, having worked as an analyst in the IT sector for Fortune 500 companies, which has informed his approach to equities research [1] - In 2021, he founded his own equities research firm, Albert Anthony & Company, which operates remotely [1] Background and Experience - Albert Anthony grew up in the New York City area and has ties to Austin, Texas, and Croatia, where he has participated in numerous business and innovation events [1] - He holds degrees and certifications from institutions such as Drew University and the Corporate Finance Institute [1] - In addition to his financial commentary, he has experience in European casting agencies and has appeared in regional media in Croatia [1] Future Endeavors - A new YouTube show titled "Financial Markets with Albert Anthony" is set to launch in 2025, where he will provide market commentary similar to his written work [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the risks associated with high-yield investments, particularly those yielding over 9%, which often lead to dividend cuts and declining prices [1] - The focus is on baby bonds, which are preferred for their ease of trading and ability to generate strong yields with less volatility compared to regular bonds [2] - PennyMac Mortgage Trust (PMT) has announced a new baby bond, PMTW, which has a 9% coupon rate, similar to PMTV, with minor differences in ex-dividend dates and pricing [3][4] Group 2 - PMTW has seen high trading volume since its recent launch, with a goal of issuing $100 million, potentially increasing to $115 million with over-allotment [6] - The issuance of around 4 million shares is expected, with the anticipation of sellers closing positions before the weekend [7] - The yield to maturity for PMTW is approximately 9.49%, with a maturity date about five years out, providing a reasonable income stream [12] Group 3 - PMTW shares are currently within the target price range, with a calculated yield to maturity of 9.35% at a price of $25.05 [13] - The article emphasizes the importance of not using market orders due to potential price jumps and the strategy of placing bids instead [8][11] - The company plans to actively trade this position based on yield changes and the spread between these bonds and similar duration Treasuries [12]