Core Viewpoint - StubHub's stock experienced a significant decline of 24% following the company's decision to withhold financial guidance for the current quarter, emphasizing a long-term focus instead [1][2]. Financial Performance - StubHub reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, with revenue increasing by 8% year over year to $468.1 million, surpassing the average analyst estimate of $452 million [3]. - Gross merchandise sales rose by 11% year over year to $2.43 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $2.36 billion [3]. Management Commentary - CEO Eric Baker highlighted that the timing of ticket sales can vary from quarter to quarter, complicating predictions of consumer demand [1]. - Baker stated that demand for live events remains "phenomenal" and indicated that the company plans to provide an outlook for 2026 during the fourth-quarter results announcement [2]. Analyst Reaction - Wedbush analysts expressed surprise at the lack of forward guidance from StubHub executives, noting that this decision could pressure shares and raise investor concerns about near-term visibility [2].

StubHub Holdings Inc. (NYSE:STUB) shares fell after the company released its third-quarter earnings report after Thursday's closing bell with a wider-than-anticipated loss per share. Here's a look at the details in the report. STUB stock is moving. Watch the price action here.The Details: Stubhub reported quarterly losses of $4.27 per share, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $3.08. Read Next: Looking For A Squeeze? Here Are The Top 10 Most Shorted StocksQuarterly revenue clocked in at $468 mill ...

Q3 2025 Financial Performance - Paid tickets reached 19.1 million, a 3% year-over-year decrease, but an improvement from the 7.3% decline in Q2 2025[16] - Gross ticket sales totaled $748 million, down 6% year-over-year[12] - Net revenue was $71.7 million, an 8% decrease year-over-year, driven by a 5% decline in ticketing revenue[26] - Net income was $6.4 million, compared to a net loss of $3.8 million in Q3 2024, driven by a $5.8 million gain on debt extinguishment and lower operating expenses[29] - Adjusted EBITDA was $8.4 million with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.7%[32] Operational Metrics - Paid creators totaled 162,000, down less than 1% year-over-year, compared to a 5% decrease in Q2 2025[19] - Average Monthly Active Users (MAUs) reached 92.3 million, flat year-over-year, but up 1.1 million from Q2 2025[22] Financial Position - Operating expenses decreased 20% year-over-year to $49.6 million, the lowest since 2021[35] - Stock-based compensation decreased 42% year-over-year to $5.9 million[38] - Debt outstanding was $175 million, down $65 million year-over-year[41] - Available liquidity was $196 million, a $52 million decrease from Q2 2025 due to a $125 million repurchase of 2026 convertible notes, partially offset by a new $60 million term loan[44] Business Outlook - The company anticipates Q4 2025 net revenue to be between $71.5 million and $74.5 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 8% to 9%[46] - Fiscal year 2025 net revenue is expected to be between $290 million and $293 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 8% to 9%[47]

Core Strategy and Value Proposition - The company is increasing focus and investment in delivering a leading value proposition to customers, combining a loyalty program with a lowest price guarantee in the app, which is expected to enhance customer engagement and transaction volume [1][5] - The foundational advantages of the company, including leading technology and unique data, are seen as critical for returning to profitable growth, with a focus on building a loyal customer base [2][11] Leadership Transition - A leadership transition has occurred, with Lawrence C. Fey succeeding Stan Chia as CEO, who is credited with guiding the company through significant challenges [3][4] - The new CEO aims to take decisive actions to reverse recent trends and position the company for long-term success [3][4] Financial Performance and Outlook - In Q3, the company reported $618 million in Marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV), down 29% year-over-year, with revenues of $136 million, also down 27% [13][14] - The company anticipates 2026 Marketplace GOV to be between $2.2 billion and $2.6 billion, with an expected adjusted EBITDA of $30 to $40 million [15][16] Cost Reduction and Corporate Simplification - The company has doubled its fixed cost reduction target from $25 million to $60 million, with substantial progress already made [7][10] - A corporate simplification agreement has been executed, which is expected to yield significant savings and improve operational efficiency [8][9] Marketing and Customer Engagement - A national marketing campaign in partnership with ESPN aims to increase awareness of the app, reaching over 127 million global subscribers [6][39] - The company is focusing on personalized marketing efforts to engage existing users and drive app usage [41][42] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment has shown signs of stabilization, with a noted shift in marketing aggressiveness from competitors like StubHub [30][56] - The company believes that its enhanced app value proposition will provide a competitive edge, particularly as it moves more transactions into the app [5][47] International Expansion and Market Position - The international business has reached a contribution margin positive status, with plans to continue investing in competitive supply across various countries [66] - The company is focused on defending its core business while exploring opportunities for future growth and potential consolidation in the industry [62][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company reported $618 million in marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV), down 29% year-over-year, and $136 million in revenues, down 27% year-over-year [12][14] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $5 million, significantly lower than the previous year due to reduced volume and lower take rates [13][14] - The marketplace take rate decreased to 17.0% from 17.5% in Q3 2024, with expectations of near-term take rates in the 16% range [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The private label business faced significant pressure, contributing to the overall decline in marketplace orders, which were also down 29% year-over-year [12] - Owned properties showed signs of stabilization with sequential GOV growth, while the Vivid Seats App experienced double-digit sequential growth and returned to year-over-year GOV growth [10][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall marketplace GOV was down 10% sequentially compared to Q2 2025, primarily due to private label headwinds [12] - The company ended Q3 with $391 million in debt and $145 million in cash, resulting in a net debt of $246 million [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The new CEO emphasized a strategy focused on enhancing the app's value proposition, including the launch of a Lowest Price Guarantee and a loyalty program [5][6] - The company plans to double its fixed cost reduction target from $25 million to $60 million, aiming for a more efficient operational structure [8][9] - Investments will be directed towards building a loyal customer base and improving the app's performance, which is expected to insulate the company from competitive pressures in performance marketing [6][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the intense competitive environment but expressed confidence in the company's path to recovery and growth through strategic investments [4][10] - The initial guidance for 2026 anticipates marketplace GOV in the range of $2.2 billion to $2.6 billion, assuming industry volumes remain flat year-over-year [14][15] Other Important Information - A leadership transition was announced, with Lawrence Fey becoming the new CEO and Ted Pickus serving as interim CFO [3][11] - The company is focusing on corporate simplification to yield substantial savings and improve operational efficiency [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What gives confidence in issuing 2026 guidance early? - Management indicated that the guidance assumes a flat year-over-year industry outlook and is based on recent stabilization trends and cost reduction initiatives [18][20] Question: Can you elaborate on the leadership transition? - The transition was deemed necessary to prepare the business for an efficiency push, with the new CEO focusing on enhancing the app's value proposition [26][28] Question: Are competitors focusing more on profitability? - There has been a notable shift in competitive posture, with some competitors reducing marketing aggressiveness, which has positively impacted Vivid Seats' market share [32][34] Question: What assumptions are built into the 2026 outlook regarding the World Cup? - The company has not assumed a meaningful impact from the World Cup due to a lack of precedent data and aggressive monetization strategies from FIFA [52][53] Question: How is the company driving awareness of the app? - A brand marketing surge via ESPN is planned, focusing on targeted performance-based metrics rather than broad brand marketing [47][48] Question: What are the capital allocation priorities? - The company will prioritize reinvesting in the core business and maintaining capital for strategic initiatives, with a cautious approach to cash outflows [70][71] Question: What signals are seen in the international business? - The international business has reached contribution margin positivity, and the company plans to continue investing in competitive supply areas [73][75]

Core Viewpoint - Vivid Seats Inc. is set to report its financial results for Q3 2025 on November 6, 2025, before the U.S. stock market opens, with a management discussion scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET [1] Company Overview - Vivid Seats, founded in 2001, is a leading online ticket marketplace that connects millions of buyers with thousands of ticket sellers across a wide range of events in North America [3] - The company emphasizes the belief that everyone should "Experience It Live," offering a vast selection of events and tickets along with an industry-leading rewards program [3] - Vivid Seats has been recognized by Newsweek as one of America's Best Companies for Customer Service in ticketing, highlighting its commitment to customer satisfaction [3] Access to Information - The live webcast of the financial results and its replay can be accessed through the company's investor relations website [2]

Core Insights - Vivid Seats Inc. has entered into a Corporate Simplification Agreement aimed at streamlining its organizational structure, which includes eliminating its dual-class structure and terminating its Tax Receivable Agreement (TRA) [1][2][3] Financial Impact - The agreement will eliminate $6 million in cash payments due in Q1 2026 under the TRA and future distributions to redeemable noncontrolling interests [2] - Vivid Seats anticipates up to $180 million in lifetime savings from the TRA termination, retaining 100% of realized tax savings that would have otherwise been payable to former TRA parties [2] - The company expects to reduce its annual cash tax payments to approximately $3 million, primarily due to taxable income generated in foreign jurisdictions [2] Operational Efficiency - The simplification of the corporate structure is expected to yield approximately $1 million in annual savings from reduced compliance and financial reporting costs associated with a single-class stock structure [2][3] - The former TRA parties will exchange all outstanding shares of Class B common stock for Class A common stock on a one-for-one basis, resulting in approximately 10.7 million shares of Class A common stock outstanding [3] Governance - A special committee of Vivid Seats' Board of Directors, composed solely of independent directors, approved the Corporate Simplification Agreement [4]

Core Viewpoint - StubHub Holdings (NYSE: STUB) is recommended as a buy due to its underappreciated growth potential in the secondary ticket marketplace [1] Company Analysis - StubHub is identified as a leading player in the secondary ticket marketplace, indicating a strong market position [1] - The investment approach emphasizes understanding core business economics, including competitive moat, unit economics, reinvestment runway, and management quality [1] - The focus is on long-term free cash flow generation and shareholder value creation, highlighting the importance of fundamental research [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is centered around identifying businesses with the potential to scale and unlock significant terminal value over time [1] - There is a preference for sectors with strong secular tailwinds, suggesting a focus on industries poised for growth [1] - The analysis aims to provide insights that help investors focus on factors driving long-term equity value [1]

Core Insights - StubHub Holdings, Inc. is positioned to accelerate revenue growth by leveraging its dominant market share, launching Direct Issuance initiatives, and expanding advertising opportunities, aiming to outperform broader online marketplace trends [1] - Bank of America analyst Justin Post initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $25 price target, emphasizing StubHub's leadership as North America's largest secondary ticket marketplace with nearly 50% market share [1] Financial Performance - StubHub has invested over $900 million in sales and marketing, surpassing some competitors' total revenue, which presents an opportunity for improved operating leverage [2] - The analyst anticipates StubHub's EBITDA margins to more than double by 2026, approaching 40% in the long term, driven by enhanced marketing efficiency, profitability in Direct Issuance, and growth in the Advertising segment [3] Market Position and Consumer Sentiment - StubHub is identified as the most frequently used secondary ticketing platform, outperforming major competitors in buying experience and pricing perception [4][5] - A Bank of America survey indicates consumers plan to maintain ticket spending levels over the next year, with a shift towards increased spending on secondary marketplaces [5] Growth Catalysts - Three near-term catalysts are highlighted: the launch of advertising on the platform, new team partnership deals, and the upcoming U.S. World Cup, which could enhance investor confidence in StubHub's growth prospects [4] Risks and Challenges - Execution risk is a primary concern, focusing on management's ability to rationalize spending while gaining market share and achieving planned growth in Direct Issuance and Advertising [6] - Additional risks include pressure from All-In Pricing mandates, dynamic pricing impacts, potential regulatory initiatives, and the upcoming lock-up expiration in Q1 2026 [7] Valuation - The $25 price target is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, applying a 10x multiple to 2026E Resale EBITDA and a 2x multiple to 2027E Direct Issuance sales, resulting in an implied 11x multiple on 2026E EBITDA [8]

Core Viewpoint - StubHub's stock has seen a positive response from analysts following its IPO, with a majority recommending buy ratings despite initial trading struggles [1][2][3]. Analyst Coverage - At least 12 analysts have initiated coverage of StubHub, with 11 recommending buy-equivalent ratings and one maintaining a neutral stance [2]. - StubHub's stock rose nearly 5% to $19.82 after the initiation of coverage [2]. Stock Performance Post-IPO - StubHub's stock has faced challenges since its IPO on September 17, closing the first day 6% below the IPO price of $23.50 and down 20% from the IPO price by the end of the previous week [3]. - BofA analyst Justin Post set a buy rating with a price target of $25, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the stock's early performance [3]. Market Position and Growth Potential - StubHub is the largest secondary ticket marketplace in North America, holding close to 50% market share [4]. - Analysts expect strong revenue growth driven by the resale market, share gains, and new business initiatives, with BofA projecting a 29% revenue growth in 2024 [5]. - Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney set a price target of $29, highlighting StubHub's robust financials and high gross margins of 81% in 2024 [5]. Direct Issuance Strategy - A key focus for StubHub is its ability to grow its direct ticket issuance business, which faces competition from major players like TicketMaster [7]. - The total addressable market for direct issuance and unsold tickets is estimated at $127 billion, compared to $30 billion for secondhand ticket sales [8]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of execution in expanding this segment over the next 12-24 months [8]. Company Background - StubHub was founded in 2000 and has undergone significant ownership changes, being acquired by eBay for $310 million in 2007 and later sold for approximately $4 billion to Viagogo in 2020 [9]. - The company reported a revenue increase of 29.5% in 2024, reaching $1.77 billion, with a net loss of $22.2 million in Q1 of this year [10].