Well, again, I think it, you know, without getting into too much any speculation at this point, what I can say, you know, you you will look to performance, right. You you would expect uh airplane is prepared for takeoff, it lifts off. Typically, what happens is that once you've got a positive rate of climb, the pilot flying will call for uh positive rate flaps up.You would then climb out and at some point you start to clean up the airplane. That means that you retract the the flaps in the slats, right. We s ...

Forecasting Challenges in Aviation - Aviation predictions tend to be overly optimistic, overpredicting project success and underpredicting costs and difficulties [3][4] - Accurate forecasting requires broad thinking, encompassing technology, infrastructure, supply chain, climate effects, labor, environmental effects, regulatory policy, and geopolitics [5][7] Factors Affecting Air Travel - Air travel is part of a multimodal transportation system, chosen based on cost, time, convenience, safety, and reliability [8] - Aircraft speeds, measured as gate-to-gate times, were faster in the past, but traffic has grown fourfold, leading to slower speeds [12][14] - Shorter flights and smaller aircraft are more affected by weather delays and air traffic management practices [18][19] - Disruptive storms are growing, impacting air traffic and reliability [20] Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) - Advanced Air Mobility, or flying cars, combines private aircraft and drone technology, envisioning electric-powered vertical takeoff and landing vehicles [26][27] - The FAA anticipates 3,000 vertiports and 10,000 AAM flights per day within six years of operation, compared to the current 45,000 flights per day in the national airspace system [35] - The success of AAM depends on overcoming challenges like congestion, weather extremes, and other factors that could make it less enticing than driving [36]

Accident Overview - Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner plane crashed, resulting in 241 fatalities out of 242 passengers [1][5] - The aircraft, en route to London, was carrying 125,000 liters (approximately 33,021 US gallons) of fuel, leading to a massive explosion upon impact [4] - The crash occurred shortly after takeoff, with the pilot issuing a mayday call before communication was lost [3] Impact and Casualties - The plane crashed into a hostel for medical students, causing additional casualties among the students and people in the vicinity [4][6] - Besides the passenger fatalities, there were casualties among medical students and people on the streets [5][6] Regulatory Response - The aviation regulator has mandated enhanced inspection and additional maintenance measures for the Air India 787 fleet [6] Aircraft and Manufacturer - The crash is a major blow to the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, raising concerns about the aircraft model [6] - Boeing has been involved in previous air crashes [6] Investigation - The black box has been recovered and is expected to help investigators understand the cause of the crash [1][2]

Core Insights - Horizon Aircraft has entered a strategic partnership with MT-Propeller to supply propellers for its hybrid eVTOL aircraft, marking a significant step in the company's transition from prototype to full-scale production [1][2][3] - The collaboration aims to enhance the performance of Horizon's Cavorite X7 aircraft by leveraging MT-Propeller's advanced composite technology, focusing on speed, efficiency, and noise reduction [2][3] - This partnership is crucial for Horizon Aircraft as it accelerates the journey towards certification and production readiness, positioning the company to transform regional air mobility [3] Company Overview - Horizon Aircraft is developing one of the world's first hybrid eVTOL aircraft, designed to operate like a conventional aircraft while offering superior speed, range, and operational utility [5] - The company aims to complete testing and certification of the Cavorite X7 eVTOL and scale production to meet anticipated demand from regional operators, emergency services, and military customers [5]

Geopolitical Risks & Market Impact - Conflict erupts in the Middle East as Israel retaliates against Iran, launching over 100 drones [1][28] - Oil prices surge due to fears of a wider war, with Brent crude rising significantly [2][3] - Global equity markets react negatively, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures and S&P futures down by 15% [3] - Market anticipates potential for further escalation and broader damage beyond Israel and Iran [14] - A worst-case scenario could see oil prices rise by $30 per barrel due to escalations [12] - Market considers the potential for terrorist attacks and attacks by proxies in other parts of the world [14] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, as a blockade could cause a squeeze in oil prices [11] - Israel intercepts drones in Jordanian and Syrian airspace, highlighting control of airspace [87] Aviation Industry - Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashes shortly after takeoff, killing all but one of the 242 people on board [2][21] - The crash marks the deadliest aviation accident in over a decade [3] - Investigators recover one of the black boxes from the crash site [20][22] - Boeing CEO cancels appearance at the Paris Air Show amid the crisis [24] - Airlines prepare to reroute flights due to airspace closures in the Middle East [148] Currency & Bond Market - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reacts positively [3] - The U S dollar is reacting like a safe haven rising alongside the equity market [19] - The Israeli Shekel is trading 2% weaker versus the U S dollar [34] - Gold approaches a record high as another safe haven bid [34] - German 10-year yield down around five basis points, so outperforming the bid into fixed income [60]

Safety Concerns & Accident Investigation - Aviation industry and US government officials maintain that flying is still safer than driving, despite recent accidents, but the system is under stress [1] - The Air India crash of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner has reignited flight safety concerns [1] - Accident investigations can take months or over a year, often pointing to a series of factors involving airline crew, pilots, maintenance personnel, weather, design, and manufacturing [7] - It is too early to determine the cause of the 787 crash, and early indications can be undermined by new information [3] - Early investigation focuses include aircraft configuration (flaps, landing gear), and potential engine thrust loss [4] Boeing Safety Record & Issues - Boeing has been in the news for safety issues, including a pair of 737 Max crashes and the Alaska Airlines door plug blowout [5] - Boeing states they are working to improve how they monitor fleet safety, engineering, and aircraft manufacturing [6] - The 787 Dreamliner is a newer model (debuted in 2011) with an excellent safety record prior to the Air India crash [6] - There have been production issues with the 787 early in its development and more recently [6]

Investment Thesis - The analyst initiated starter positions in Joby Aviation (Joby) and Archer, both considered highly speculative pre-revenue companies in the low-altitude economy [1][2] - The investment is based on the potential of the low-altitude economy, specifically transportation via vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft, over the next 10-15 years [2][3] - The analyst acknowledges the high risk involved, as there is no guarantee either company will successfully commercialize a vehicle [5] Company Specifics - Joby Aviation is 9% owned by Toyota and has other high-profile investors, aiming to create an "Uber of the skies" taxi network [7] - Archer has a prototype called Midnight and is focused on selling its aircraft, with an initial use case of transporting accident victims to hospitals [7] Regulatory Environment - Recent actions have removed red tape for testing VTOL technologies, potentially accelerating development and commercialization [6] Market Opportunity - Morgan Stanley has released a report on the low-altitude economy, highlighting the potential for delivery drones and transportation below one mile above the earth's surface [3] Risk Considerations - These investments are highly speculative and not suitable for investors with low risk tolerance [5][8] - The companies need to obtain certifications, which is a key catalyst in the next 6-12 months, to establish a revenue model [7]

An Air India flight en route to London carrying 242 passengers and crew crashed shortly after taking off from Ahmedabad international airport today. Video shows the plane struggling to lift up before crashing into a residential area minutes later. Join our community Discord! https://discord.com/invite/xCm9UpDPE4 This coverage is made possible by our amazing community! Consider becoming a The Launch Pad Member and go behind the scenes with early video access, behind the scenes live streams and more! SUBSCRIB ...

An Air India flight en route to London carrying 242 passengers and crew crashed shortly after taking off from Ahmedabad international airport today. Video shows the plane struggling to lift up before crashing into a residential area minutes later. Join our community Discord! https://discord.com/invite/xCm9UpDPE4 This coverage is made possible by our amazing community! Consider becoming a The Launch Pad Member and go behind the scenes with early video access, behind the scenes live streams and more! SUBSCRIB ...

The uh plane crash was terrible. I've already told them anything we can do. It's a big country, a strong country, and they'll handle it, I'm sure. But I let them know that anything we can do, we'll be over there immediately. But it was a horrific crash. It looks like uh most are gone. They actually maybe have a couple survivors, which is just heard. Uh but uh that was a horrible crash. Nobody knows any idea what it might be. I gave him a couple of uh pointers. I said, "Maybe you'll look at this or You know, ...