Summary of the Conference Call on North American Midstream & Renewable Energy Infrastructure Industry Overview - The report focuses on the North American midstream sector, particularly how crude oil prices, specifically WTI (West Texas Intermediate), influence midstream stocks performance [1][2]. Key Insights - A quantitative analysis was conducted to understand the historical relationship between WTI prices and individual midstream stocks, aiming to prepare investors for potential near-term oil price declines [9][10]. - The report indicates that midstream stocks exhibit negative convexity to oil prices, meaning they tend to decline more sharply when WTI prices fall than they rise when prices increase [10]. - Current market conditions show that WTI has decreased by 24% since its recent peak in January 2025, which is in the $60 price band, a scenario that correlates with higher risks for midstream stocks [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach, recommending to consider long positions in specific midstream stocks such as TRGP (Overweight), OKE (Overweight), WBI (Equal-weight), and PAA (Equal-weight) if WTI falls below $55 per barrel [10][12][15]. - The valuation of these stocks appears inexpensive, but a more aggressive capital allocation is advised only if WTI drops to the $50-$55 range [12][15]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the potential for a global oil market oversupply could lead to further downside risks for oil-levered midstream equities [12]. - Despite the current lag in performance of oil-levered midstream equities during recent down days for crude oil, the long-term contracted nature of most midstream companies provides cash flow resiliency and limits funding risks [12]. Correlation Analysis - The report includes various exhibits showing the correlation between WTI prices and midstream companies over the years, indicating that correlations tend to be higher during periods of significant price movements [16][17]. - Historical data from 2014 to 2025 shows varying degrees of correlation between WTI and midstream stocks, with a notable increase in correlation during downturns [17]. Conclusion - The North American midstream sector is currently viewed as attractive, but investors are advised to remain patient and strategic in their approach, particularly in light of potential oil price corrections and the associated risks for midstream equities [8][12].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the appeal of midstream companies due to their predictable EBITDA growth and dividend growth, making them attractive for long-term investment [1]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Dhierin-Perkash Bechai is an analyst specializing in aerospace, defense, and airline sectors, with a background in aerospace engineering [1]. - The Aerospace Forum, led by Bechai, aims to identify investment opportunities within the aerospace, defense, and airline industries [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus on midstream companies is highlighted as a strategy for investors seeking stable returns [1]. - The analysis provided by the investing group is data-driven, offering insights into how industry developments may impact investment theses [1].

Core Insights - MPLX reported third-quarter 2025 financial results that met market expectations, including a 12.5% increase in unitholder distribution and a strategic opportunity to support data centers in Texas [1][2] Financial Performance Overview - Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $1.77 billion, aligning with the consensus estimate of $1.75 billion [2] - The quarterly distribution was increased by 12.5% to $1.0765 per unit, effective in late October [2] - The company aims to sustain annual distribution growth while maintaining distribution coverage at or above 1.3x [3] Growth Outlook - MPLX reaffirmed its outlook for mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth for 2025 and beyond, with stronger growth expected in 2026 [4] - Key projects, such as the Secretariat processing plant, are anticipated to support these growth expectations [4] Strategic Developments - A significant development was the letter of intent (LOI) with MARA to supply natural gas for power generation and data centers in West Texas, starting at 400 megawatts with potential scaling to 1.5 gigawatts [4][5] - This opportunity demonstrates that lucrative data center sector prospects can align with existing gathering and processing assets [5] Market Position - MPLX is the top holding in the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP), which has a yield of 8.34% as of November 4 [5]

Financial Performance - Western Midstream achieved a record total natural-gas throughput of 55 billion cubic feet per day[13] - The company reported record Adjusted EBITDA of $634 million in Q3 2025, a 3% quarter-over-quarter increase[13] - Operating cash flow increased to $5702 million in Q3 2025 from $564 million in Q2 2025[34] - Free cash flow increased to $3974 million in Q3 2025 from $3884 million in Q2 2025[34] - The company's net income for Q3 2025 was $332 million[36] Strategic Growth & Capital Allocation - The company is targeting organic capital projects that meet or exceed mid-teens, unlevered rates of return[40] - The company anticipates free cash flow to be in the range of $1275 billion to $1475 billion for 2025[44] - The company is targeting mid-to-low single-digit annual distribution increases[41] - The company's estimated throughput growth rate for produced water is approximately 40% for 2025[47] Assets and Operations - The North Loving II project, a 300 million cubic feet per day cryogenic processing train, is expected to be in service in Q2 2027[18] - The Pathfinder Pipeline, with a capacity of approximately 800 thousand barrels per day, is expected to be in service in Q1 2027[18] - The company's market capitalization is approximately $153 billion[8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the investment approach of Michael Del Monte, emphasizing a holistic view of the investment ecosystem rather than evaluating companies in isolation [1] - Michael Del Monte has over 5 years of experience as a buy-side equity analyst and previously worked in professional services for over a decade across various industries [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific investment recommendations or advice regarding particular stocks or companies [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The investment stance on Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) has remained neutral since July 2024, despite an appreciation of its fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Antero Midstream Corporation is categorized as a midstream vehicle, indicating its role in the transportation and storage of oil and gas [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - Roberts Berzins has over a decade of experience in financial management, focusing on helping top-tier corporates with financial strategies and large-scale financings [1]. - Berzins has contributed to institutionalizing the REIT framework in Latvia to enhance the liquidity of pan-Baltic capital markets [1]. - His policy-level work includes developing national SOE financing guidelines and frameworks for channeling private capital into affordable housing [1]. - Berzins holds a CFA Charter and an ESG investing certificate, and has experience with the Chicago Board of Trade [1].

Core Insights - The third-quarter earnings season is underway, with energy companies like Comstock Resources Inc., Williams, and Marathon Petroleum Corp. expected to report better-than-expected earnings due to a favorable energy business environment in the September quarter [1] Oil & Gas Pricing Analysis - Average WTI spot prices for July, August, and September were $68.39, $64.86, and $63.96 per barrel, respectively, indicating a healthier pricing environment compared to the previous quarter [2] - Year-over-year, the pricing environment was less favorable, with average prices in July, August, and September 2024 at $81.80, $76.68, and $70.24 per barrel, respectively [3] - Natural gas prices in the September quarter of 2025 were higher than in the same period of 2024, with Henry Hub average prices at $3.20, $2.91, and $2.97 per million Btu [4] Stock Selection Strategy - Identifying stocks with potential for better-than-expected earnings is challenging, but a combination of positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank can help [5] - Stocks with this combination have a 70% chance of delivering an earnings surprise [6] Company-Specific Insights - Comstock Resources, a leading natural gas producer, is expected to benefit from favorable commodity pricing, with an Earnings ESP of +2.86% and a Zacks Rank of 3, scheduled to report on Nov. 3 [8] - Williams, known for its midstream operations, is anticipated to benefit from stable cash flows and higher natural gas prices, with an Earnings ESP of +0.56% and a Zacks Rank of 3, also reporting on Nov. 3 [9] - Marathon Petroleum, a leading refiner, is likely to gain from lower year-over-year oil prices, with an Earnings ESP of +8.68% and a Zacks Rank of 3, set to report on Nov. 4 [10]

Core Insights - Antero Midstream Corporation reported a revenue of $294.82 million for Q3 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 9.3% and an EPS of $0.24 compared to $0.21 a year ago, slightly missing the consensus EPS estimate of $0.25 by 4% [1][3] Financial Performance - Revenue of $294.82 million exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $293.8 million, resulting in a surprise of +0.35% [1] - The company experienced a -9.4% return over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.8% change, and currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [3] Key Metrics - Average Daily Volumes for Low Pressure Gathering were 3432 million cubic feet per day, surpassing the estimate of 3371.62 million cubic feet per day [4] - Average Daily Volumes for Compression reached 3421 million cubic feet per day, exceeding the estimate of 3343.72 million cubic feet per day [4] - Average Daily Volumes for High Pressure Gathering were 3170 million cubic feet per day, slightly above the estimate of 3158.69 million cubic feet per day [4] - Average Daily Volumes for Fresh Water Delivery stood at 92 million barrels of oil per day, compared to the estimate of 84.26 million barrels per day [4] - Revenues from Water Handling for Antero Resources were $62.13 million, below the estimated $64.19 million but reflecting an 18.8% year-over-year increase [4] - Revenues from Gathering and Processing for Antero Resources were $249.83 million, exceeding the estimate of $245.72 million, with a year-over-year change of +6.4% [4] - Revenues from Gathering and Processing were reported at $240.56 million, above the estimate of $235.76 million, showing a +6.6% year-over-year change [4] - Revenues from Water Handling were $54.27 million, slightly below the estimate of $55.5 million, with a year-over-year change of +22.5% [4]

Group 1 - The ClearBridge Energy Midstream Opportunity Fund Inc. (NYSE: EMO) is a closed-end fund focused on providing investors exposure to midstream operators and their distributable cash flows without requiring a K-1 tax filing [1] - The fund offers a robust distribution, appealing to investors seeking income from midstream investments [1] Group 2 - Analyst Michael Del Monte has over 5 years of experience in the investment management industry and previously worked in professional services across various sectors including Oil & Gas, Midstream, and Information Technology [1] - Investment recommendations are based on a comprehensive view of the investment ecosystem rather than evaluating companies in isolation [1]

Group 1 - The ClearBridge Energy Midstream Opportunity Fund Inc. (NYSE: EMO) is a closed-end fund focused on providing investors exposure to midstream operators and their distributable cash flows without requiring a K-1 tax filing [1] - The fund offers a robust distribution, appealing to investors seeking income from midstream investments [1] Group 2 - Analyst Michael Del Monte has over 5 years of experience in the investment management industry and has worked across various sectors including Oil & Gas, Midstream, and Industrials [1] - Investment recommendations are based on a comprehensive view of the investment ecosystem rather than evaluating companies in isolation [1]