The price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) on Monday fell more than -2% to a 1.5-week low, driven by long liquidation pressures. According to data from Coinglass, more than 407,000 traders liquidated positions over the past twenty-four hours.Fed comments today were on the hawkish side and negative for stocks. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he sees limited room for additional Fed interest rate cuts amid elevated inflation and believes rates are now "between modestly restrictive and neutral." Also, Atlanta ...

Core Insights - Toll Brothers (TOL) and D.R. Horton (DHI) are leading U.S. homebuilders with different market focuses, with TOL specializing in luxury homes and DHI dominating the entry-level and affordable housing segment [1][9] - Both companies have shown solid performance despite high mortgage rates and cautious consumer sentiment, with their stocks rallying sharply in recent months [2][14] - A comparison of the fundamentals of TOL and DHI is essential to determine the better investment opportunity [3] Toll Brothers Overview - Toll Brothers has maintained steady momentum due to its luxury niche, with 26% of buyers in the fiscal third quarter paying cash and financed buyers averaging a 70% loan-to-value ratio [4][6] - The average selling prices (ASPs) exceed $1 million, with backlog ASP at $1.16 million, providing stability amid fluctuating housing demand [4][6] - A strategic shift to a 50/50 mix of spec and build-to-order homes has improved flexibility, with 3,200 spec homes under construction and 1,800 permits in hand [5] - Backlog support includes 5,492 homes valued at $6.4 billion, with plans to increase active communities from 420 to 440-450 by year-end [6] - The balance sheet is stable, with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 19.3%, $852 million in cash, and $2.2 billion in available credit [7] D.R. Horton Overview - D.R. Horton benefits from unmatched scale, operating in 36 states and over 120 markets, which provides cost advantages and better lot control [9][10] - The company closed 23,160 homes in the fiscal third quarter, achieving a gross margin of 21.8% while maintaining a low cancellation rate [11] - D.R. Horton has increased its community count by 12% year-over-year and introduced smaller homes to meet affordability needs [11][12] - The company has a strong liquidity position of $5.5 billion and a leverage ratio of 23.2%, with a book value per share of $80.46 [12] Share Price Performance - TOL stock has increased by approximately 11% year-to-date, while DHI stock has risen about 20.4%, outperforming both the industry and the S&P 500 index [14] - In the last three months, DHI stock surged roughly 30.8%, compared to TOL's rally of 24.2% [14] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - TOL's forward 12-month P/E ratio is 9.96, lower than DHI's 13.98, indicating a premium for DHI due to its market leadership [18] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TOL's fiscal 2025 EPS has decreased to $13.82, reflecting a 7.9% decline from the previous year [20] - Conversely, DHI's fiscal 2025 EPS estimate has increased to $11.79, indicating a positive shift in sentiment despite a 17.8% year-over-year decline [22] Investment Outlook - While both companies have shown resilience, the near-term risk-reward appears more favorable for Toll Brothers due to its affluent customer base and pricing strength [25][26] - D.R. Horton's reliance on incentives and shrinking ASPs may temper its upside in the current market [26][27] - Toll Brothers is better positioned to capture incremental gains as mortgage rates ease and demand stabilizes, offering stronger near-term upside potential compared to D.R. Horton [27]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. has announced the grand opening of Montrose at Innisbrook - Townes Collection, a luxury townhome community in Palm Harbor, Florida [1][4] - The community features spacious two-story townhomes ranging from 1,800 to 2,281 square feet, with prices starting from the mid-$500,000s [3][4] Company Overview - Toll Brothers is recognized as the nation's leading builder of luxury homes and operates in over 60 markets across 24 states [10] - The company has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "TOL" since becoming public in 1986 [10] - Toll Brothers has received multiple accolades, including being named one of Fortune magazine's World's Most Admired Companies for over 10 years [11] Product Offering - The Montrose at Innisbrook - Townes Collection includes townhomes with 2 to 4 bedrooms and 2.5 to 4.5 bathrooms, along with 2-car garages [3] - Select homes offer views of the renowned Copperhead golf course and access to resort-style amenities such as golf courses, tennis facilities, and swimming pools [3][4] Location and Accessibility - The community is conveniently located near top-rated schools, Gulf Coast beaches, parks, shopping, and major commuter highways in Greater Tampa Bay [7] Customer Experience - Toll Brothers provides a one-stop shopping experience at its Design Studio, allowing customers to personalize their homes with professional design consultants [6]

Core Insights - Lennar, the second-largest homebuilder in the U.S., has been focusing on increasing sales pace and market share, even at the expense of profit margins through price cuts and incentives in a challenging housing market [2][4] - The company reported its lowest gross margin since 2009, prompting a strategic shift to prioritize profitability over sales volume [2][5] Sales Strategy - Lennar's co-CEO announced a slight pullback on the aggressive sales-over-margin strategy due to further erosion of profitability in Q3 [3][5] - The average selling price of Lennar homes decreased to $383,000 in Q3 2025, a 9.2% drop from the previous year and 22% below the peak price of $491,000 in 2022 [4] Market Conditions - Despite a downward trend in mortgage rates towards the end of the quarter, stronger sales have not yet materialized, indicating a need for the company to pause and allow the market to stabilize [4] - The incentive-driven sales strategy, while effective in maintaining sales, has significantly impacted gross margins, which fell to 17.5% in Q3, the lowest level since 2009 [5]

Core Viewpoint - KB Home is expected to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on September 24, with anticipated declines in earnings and revenues compared to the previous year [1][3]. Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimate for the third quarter is $1.50, reflecting a 26.5% decline from $2.04 in the same quarter last year [3][8]. - Total revenues are projected at $1.60 billion, indicating an 8.9% decrease from the prior year's $1.75 billion [3][8]. Revenue Trends - A decline in home deliveries and average selling price (ASP) is expected to contribute to the revenue drop, attributed to high mortgage rates and new tariff regime risks [4][5]. - Housing revenues are anticipated to range between $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion, with ASP projected between $470,000 and $480,000, down from $480,900 year-over-year [5][6]. Margin Expectations - The adjusted housing gross margin is expected to be between 18.1% and 18.7%, significantly lower than the 20.7% reported in the previous year [7][9]. - The homebuilding adjusted operating margin is projected to be between 7.6% and 8.2%, down from 10.9% year-over-year [9]. Orders and Backlogs - New orders are expected to rise by 6.5% to 3,286 units, while the backlog is projected to decrease to 4,653 units from 5,724 units in the prior year [11][8]. Earnings Prediction - The model indicates a potential earnings beat for KB Home, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.40% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [12][13].

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets opened lower on September 22, 2025, following a record-high closing last week, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of key economic data and Federal Reserve commentary [1][2] - The S&P 500 dipped approximately 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 169 to 228 points (0.37% to 0.5%), and the Nasdaq Composite eased back by 0.1% to 0.2% [2] Economic Indicators - The market's overall trajectory has been upward since hitting a bottom in April, driven by expectations of continued rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3] - Investors are particularly focused on upcoming inflation data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is expected to show a slight increase [5] Corporate Developments - Pfizer (PFE) announced its intent to acquire Metsera (MTSR) for $4.9 billion, leading to a 60% surge in Metsera's shares and a 1.5% increase in Pfizer's stock [6] - FedEx Corp. (FDX) shares advanced 2.3% after reporting strong first-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings [6] - Lennar Corp. (LEN) saw a 4.2% decline in shares after its third-quarter fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings fell short of estimates [6] - Newmont Corp. (NEM) shares surged 4.3% following the sale of its stake in Orla Mining [6] - Brighthouse Financial Inc. (BHF) shares jumped 27.2% amid acquisition talks with Aquarian Holdings [6] Technology Sector News - Oracle (ORCL) gained 4% following reports of discussions with Meta for a potential $20 billion cloud computing deal [10] - Oklo (OKLO) shares climbed 28% due to a substantial UK-US nuclear energy partnership valued at $350 billion [10] - Apple (AAPL) shares rose 3.2% after a J.P. Morgan upgrade and the global launch of its newest iPhone model [10] - Tesla (TSLA) added 2.2% following a positive upgrade from Baird [10]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. has announced the grand opening of The Ranch at Uptown Celina, a new luxury home community located north of Dallas, Texas [1][4] - The community features four collections of single-family homes with sizes ranging from approximately 1,500 to over 5,000 square feet, priced from the upper $300,000s to the low $700,000s [2][4] Company Overview - Toll Brothers is recognized as the nation's leading builder of luxury homes and operates in over 60 markets across 22 states [8][9] - The company was founded in 1967 and became publicly traded in 1986, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "TOL" [8] Community Features - The Ranch at Uptown Celina offers a variety of amenities including an outdoor pool, biking trails, and open green spaces, enhancing the living experience for residents [2][5] - The community is located within the Celina Independent School District, providing access to quality educational institutions [5] Customer Experience - Toll Brothers provides a Design Studio for customers to personalize their homes with a wide selection of options, supported by professional Design Consultants [4]

Group 1 - D.R. Horton is the largest homebuilder in the U.S. by delivered homes, having solidified its market position over the past three decades [1] - The company has consistently captured market share, indicating strong competitive performance in the homebuilding industry [1] Group 2 - The investment philosophy discussed emphasizes identifying mispriced securities through understanding financial drivers, often revealed by DCF model valuation [1] - This approach allows for a flexible investment strategy that considers all prospects of a stock, rather than being confined to traditional investment categories [1]

Core Insights - LGI Homes, Inc. has announced the Grand Opening of Estrella at High Range, featuring 337 new single-family homes in Rio Rancho, New Mexico [1][2] - The new section builds on the company's previous success in the area, having delivered over 230 homes since 2015 [2] - The homes will start in the $350,000 range, offering upgraded and affordable options in a desirable location [4] Company Overview - LGI Homes is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, and operates in 36 markets across 21 states, having closed over 75,000 homes since its founding in 2003 [8][10] - The company has been recognized for its quality construction and customer service, earning a spot on Newsweek's list of the World's Most Trustworthy Companies [8] Community Features - Estrella at High Range will include five brand-new floor plans, with features such as stucco exteriors, large covered patios, and modern kitchens with Whirlpool® appliances [4][5] - The community will also offer a new five-acre park with various amenities, funded by a $2 million investment from LGI Homes [6] Location Benefits - The development is situated within the award-winning Rio Rancho Public School District, providing access to top-rated schools and major employers [5] - Residents will benefit from proximity to shopping, dining, and recreational opportunities in both Rio Rancho and nearby Albuquerque [5] Grand Opening Event - The Grand Opening event is scheduled for September 27, 2025, featuring exclusive discounts and incentives for homebuyers [7]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are trending lower, indicating a cautious start to the trading week after major indexes closed at record highs [1][2] - The S&P 500 futures are down 0.3%, Dow Jones futures are also down 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures show a larger decrease of 0.4% [2] - European indexes have started the week lower, with Germany's DAX down 0.6%, France's CAC 40 down 0.5%, and London's FTSE 100 declining by 0.1% [3] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released includes the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, with consensus estimates predicting a 2.7% increase for the headline PCE and a 2.9% rise for the core PCE [4] - Provisional Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys for September are expected, with the U.S. S&P Manufacturing & Services PMI scheduled for Tuesday [5] - A looming deadline to prevent a U.S. government shutdown is also a concern for investors [5] Corporate Developments - President Trump's decision to impose a $100,000 one-time fee for new H-1B visas is expected to significantly impact technology and financial sectors, leading to lower shares for Indian IT companies like Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys [6] - FedEx Corporation shares advanced by 2.3% after reporting stronger-than-expected first-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings [7] - Lennar Corporation shares fell by 4.2% after missing third-quarter fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings estimates [7] - Newmont Corporation surged 4.3% following the sale of its stake in Orla Mining [7] - Brighthouse Financial Inc. experienced a significant jump of 27.2% amid advanced acquisition talks with Aquarian Holdings [7] - Apple Inc. shares jumped 3.2% driven by strong demand for the new iPhone 17, with preorders in China reportedly topping those of the iPhone 16 in just one minute [7] - Oracle Corporation gained 4% after reports of discussions with Meta Platforms for a multi-year cloud computing deal worth $20 billion [11] - Airline stocks, including British Airways owner IAG, Lufthansa, and Air France-KLM, are down following a cyberattack targeting major airports [11]