Inflation Data Summary - May CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, better than the expected decline of 0.2% and consistent with the previous month[1] - Month-on-month CPI fell by 0.2%, compared to a rise of 0.1% in the previous month[1] - Core CPI excluding food and energy remained flat month-on-month, down from a 0.2% increase in the previous month[1] Energy and Commodity Prices - Energy prices significantly impacted CPI, with a 1.7% decrease in energy prices contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 5.2% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline of 18.9% from February to May[1] - Transportation fuel prices dropped by 3.7%, with a total decline of 9.2% from March to May[1] Service and Food Prices - Service prices were flat month-on-month, down from a previous increase of 0.3%, indicating weakened support for CPI[2] - Food prices decreased by 0.2%, a smaller decline compared to historical averages of -1.1% and -0.9% for the same period[3] - Fresh vegetable prices fell by 5.9%, while fresh fruit prices increased by 3.3% due to drought conditions in northern regions[3] Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - PPI remained unchanged month-on-month at -0.4%, consistent with the previous two months[5] - The rolling three-month average for PPI is -0.4%, marking a seven-month low, with an annual rate of -4.7%[5] - The mining and raw materials sectors saw PPI declines of -2.5% and -0.9%, respectively, while the manufacturing sector decreased by -0.3%[5] Market Implications - The weak inflation data suggests continued pressure on industries sensitive to economic cycles, while technology sectors may perform relatively better[8] - Defensive dividend stocks are recommended for consideration, although attention should be paid to potential market disruptions from dividend-related trading in June and July[8]

Group 1 - The core objective of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year is to promote a reasonable recovery of price levels, which will create space for fiscal measures to boost consumption and investment, as well as for further interest rate cuts by the central bank [1][2][5] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative growth, primarily due to falling energy prices and lower food prices [1][3][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3% in May, with the drop in production material prices contributing significantly to this decline [1][6][10] Group 2 - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year in May, indicating a slight improvement in underlying price levels [1][4][5] - The decline in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and eggs, has been a major factor in the overall CPI decrease, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 8.3% year-on-year [3][4][6] - The implementation of policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the trade-in program for vehicles and appliances, has provided some support to prices in certain sectors [4][5][8] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that while the PPI is expected to show marginal improvement, it is likely to remain in negative territory for some time due to external and internal pressures [8][9][10] - The demand for high-tech products is increasing, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with low inflation levels exerting pressure on corporate operations and employment [5][6]

Group 1 - In May, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 3.3% year-on-year [1][7] - The primary factor for the decline in CPI is the continuous drop in energy prices, which decreased by 6.1% year-on-year and 1.7% month-on-month [2][7] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a stable upward trend for three consecutive months [4][8] Group 2 - Food prices experienced a slight decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, influenced by seasonal factors and supply changes [3] - The hospitality and tourism sectors saw price increases of 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, driven by improved consumer demand and holiday activities [4] - The PPI's decline is attributed to both international factors, such as falling crude oil prices, and domestic factors, including seasonal drops in coal prices [7][8] Group 3 - The high-end equipment manufacturing sector is witnessing price increases, with significant rises in prices for integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] - The overall consumer demand is gradually recovering, supported by effective consumption-boosting policies [4][5] - The real estate market is still in recovery, affecting demand for household appliances and entertainment equipment, which saw a month-on-month price decline of 1.1% [5]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Overview - In May, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight improvement in domestic economic resilience [1][4] - The decline in CPI was influenced by seasonal factors and falling oil prices, while the core CPI's increase reflects a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] Group 2: Sector-Specific Price Changes - In May, food prices decreased by 0.4%, while non-food prices remained stable; consumer goods prices fell by 0.5%, and service prices rose by 0.5% [2][4] - The industrial producer prices showed a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with significant contributions from the petroleum and coal industries, which saw price drops of 5.6% and 3% respectively [5][6] - The prices of durable consumer goods, such as gold jewelry and home textiles, increased by 40.1% and 1.9%, respectively, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [3][4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Recommendations - Future policies should focus on boosting consumption through active fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand and support price recovery [2][4] - Analysts expect a moderate recovery in prices throughout the year, driven by macroeconomic policies and improvements in supply structure [6]

事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 5 月，CPI 同比下降 0.1%，上月为下降 0.1%，1-5 月 CPI 累计同比下降 0.1%；5 月 PPI 同比下降 3.3%，上月为下降 2.7%，1-5 月 PPI 累计同比下降 2.6%。 基本观点：5 月 CPI 同比-0.1%，略高于市场预期。主要原因是当月工业消费品价格和服务价格同比涨 幅扩大，抵消了国际原油价格下跌向国内能源价格传导以及食品价格同比降幅扩大的影响，带动整体 CPI 同比保持稳定。5 月 CPI 同比连续三个月负增长，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格、更能反映基本物价水 平的核心 CPI 同比持续处于 1.0%以下的低位，表明当前国内物价水平稳中偏弱，其中消费需求不足是主要 原因。5 月 PPI 环比续跌，主因国际原油价格下跌并传导至国内相关行业，以及在国内需求偏弱而供给充 足影响下，煤炭、钢材、水泥等能源和工业品价格亦有所下行。不过，受提振消费政策效果显现等因素拉 动，5 月耐用消费品价格环比改善，带动生活资料价格环比止跌。5 月 PPI 同比跌幅较上月大幅扩大 0.6 个百分点，这一方面源于新涨价动能持续减弱，另一方面也因翘尾 ...

6月9日，国家统计局公布5月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）。 5月，CPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相 同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。 东方金诚研究发展部总监冯琳在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）微信采访时认为，5月CPI同比下降0.1%，略高于市场预期。主要原因是 当月工业消费品价格和服务价格同比涨幅扩大，抵消了国际原油价格下跌向国内能源价格传导以及食品价格同比降幅扩大的影响，带动整体CPI同比保持稳 定。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟认为，影响本月PPI环比下降的主要原因，一是国际输入性因素影响国内相关行业价格下降，二是国内部分能源和原材 料价格阶段性下行。 5月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.1% 图片来源：国家统计局 核心CPI同比上涨0.6% 5月，CPI同比下降0.1%，降幅与上月相同。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 冯琳分析，5月应季蔬菜上市量增加，加之上年同 ...

5 月 CPI 同比增速略高于万得一致预期，PPI 同比增速略低于万得一致预期， 能源价格下跌继续拖累 CPI 和 PPI 同比增速；CPI 方面，5 月能源价格是主 要拖累因素，但服务价格表现较好，食品价格表现强于季节性；PPI 方面， 国内部分能源和原材料价格依然疲弱，但高端装备制造业价格有向好趋势。 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 9 日 5 月通胀点评 内需依然疲弱，但部分产品价格有向好趋势 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 5 月 CPI 环比下降 0.2%，同比下降 0.1%，核心 CPI 同比增长 0.6%，服务 价格同比增长 0.5%，消费品价格同比下降 0.5%。 从环比看，5 月份食品价格下降 0.2%，降幅小于季节性水平 1.1 个百分点， 影响 CPI 环比下降约 0.04 个百分点；能源价格环比下降 ...

6月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，5月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降 0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。工业生产者出厂价 格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。我国以 更大力度和更精准措施提振消费，新质生产力成长壮大，部分领域供需关系有所改善，价格呈现积极变 化。 CPI略有下降，核心CPI同比涨幅扩大 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，CPI环比由涨转降主要受能源价格下降影响。能源价格环比 下降1.7%，影响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点，占CPI总降幅近七成。 其中，汽油价格下降3.8%，降幅比上月扩大1.8个百分点。食品价格下降0.2%，降幅小于季节性水平1.1 个百分点，影响CPI环比下降约0.04个百分点。其中，应季蔬菜上市量增加，鲜菜价格下降5.9%；鸡 蛋、猪肉和禽肉类价格稳中略降，降幅在0.3%—1.0%之间；受部分地区暴雨天气、伏季休渔期等因素 影响，鲜果、淡水鱼和海水鱼供应有所减少，价格分别上涨3.3%、3.1%和1.5%。消费需求持续回暖， 叠 ...

金融界2025年6月9日消息，国家知识产权局信息显示，大庆油田有限责任公司;中国石油天然气股份有 限公司申请一项名为"一种异常高孔渗带类型定量判定方法及装置"的专利，公开号CN120102396A，申 请日期为2023年12月。 专利摘要显示，本发明涉及油藏地质工程研究技术领域，尤其涉及一种异常高孔渗带类型定量判定方法 及装置。该方法包括：获取目标工区正常压实条件下孔隙度和渗透率以及现今孔隙度和渗透率；分别确 定正常压实条件下孔隙度与现今孔隙度的比值以及正常压实条件下渗透率与现今渗透率的比值；判断正 常压实条件下的孔隙度与现今孔隙度的比值或正常压实条件下的渗透率与现今渗透率的比值是否大于预 定值，若为是，则为沉积型，否则，为成岩型。以解决目前没有有关异常高渗带类型的定量判定方法， 不能明确沉积与成岩作用对储层演化的贡献程度，不能明确物性主控因素，导致无法进一步提高储层质 量预测结果精度，影响油田开发效果的问题。 天眼查资料显示，大庆油田有限责任公司，成立于2000年，位于大庆市，是一家以从事石油和天然气开 采业为主的企业。企业注册资本4750000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，大庆油田有限责任公司共 对外投 ...

Core CPI and Economic Policy - The core CPI shows a steady upward trend, reflecting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and the increasing impact of domestic demand on prices [1][5] - In May, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][4] CPI and PPI Trends - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [2][7] - Energy prices dropped by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline [4] Food Prices and Consumer Demand - Food prices decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with pork prices rising by 3.1% but showing a decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [4] - The analysis indicates that consumer demand is in a critical recovery phase, with expectations of gradual improvement in consumption as counter-cyclical policies take effect [4][5] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Certain sectors are experiencing marginal price improvements, with some consumer goods seeing price stabilization or increases [8] - High-tech product demand is expanding, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] Future Price Outlook - Short-term inflation may face dual pressures, with expectations of continued negative growth in CPI and PPI in the second and third quarters [9] - Recent financial policies may signal the start of a new round of incremental policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [9]