The market expects Commercial Metals (CMC) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended May 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released ...

CITI'S TAKE Flash | 12 Jun 2025 04:35:43 ET │ 9 pages China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #83 – Steel Inventory and Consumption Data In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectations of a demand recovery have been largely cautious. We have shifted our near-term pecking order to steel > aluminum > lithium > copper > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement names. We have opened CWs for Chalco (note) and Tianqi (note) and ...

Economic Overview - Juicebook, Germany is facing challenges due to high production costs impacting manufacturing profitability [1] - The transition to a service-oriented economy is lagging behind manufacturing job losses, leading to high unemployment and political frustration [2] - Germany's de-industrialization is more pronounced compared to other EU countries due to its higher share of manufacturing [3] Political Landscape - Nearly 25% of voters in Juicebook supported the far-right opposition party AFD in the federal elections [2] - Frustration from economic challenges could lead to political upheaval in Germany [3] Government Initiatives - The National Parliament passed a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund to aid the economic transition [3] Challenges and Solutions - The city and country need better strategies to bridge the gap between the old and new economic models [3]

Industry Overview - The S&P Steel Index is experiencing growth in 2025, driven by tariff leverage, strong balance sheets, and high returns on capital [1] - As of June 12, the S&P Steel Sub-Industry Index has increased by 8.40% year to date, indicating stabilization in the US steel sector [1] - President Trump's decision to double US steel import tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 4, 2025, is a significant factor contributing to this growth [1][2] Tariff Impact - The announcement of the tariff increase led to immediate gains in steel stocks, with Cleveland-Cliffs rising 26% in one day, while Steel Dynamics and Nucor saw increases of 10-11% [2] - Benchmark steel prices rose from $725 per metric ton before the tariff announcement to $875 per metric ton currently, effectively raising the price floor for domestic steel [2] Market Dynamics - The steel industry's rally is attributed to both short-term catalysts and long-term structural forces, including federal spending on infrastructure and reshoring efforts [3] - Supply chain restocking, recovery in the auto sector, and disciplined capital returns from leading companies like Nucor and Steel Dynamics contribute to a more stable sector profile [3] Construction and Demand - Domestic construction activity is robust, particularly in commercial construction, which supports demand for structural steel despite higher interest rates [7] - Key steel-consuming industries, such as automotive and machinery manufacturing, are showing resilience, while renewable energy infrastructure expansion creates new demand for steel [7] Company Highlights - Nucor, trading at $121 per share with a 1.82% dividend yield, is noted for its industry-leading margins and strong balance sheet, despite recent volatility due to tariff negotiations [9] - Steel Dynamics, priced at $133 per share with a 1.50% dividend yield, has shown a 16.7% increase year to date and is recognized for its operational efficiency and low production costs [10][11] - ArcelorMittal, trading at $30 per share with a 1.55% dividend yield, has seen a 30.6% increase year to date and is expected to benefit from strategic acquisitions and joint ventures [12][13] Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with high-margin, value-added products and sustainable dividend growth rather than chasing commodity pricing volatility [14] - Strong fundamentals, including cost-efficient production, strong returns on capital, and quality net margins, are essential for evaluating steel stocks [16]

Core Insights - Friedman Industries reported improved margins and a record sales volume for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with a 28% increase in sales volume compared to the previous quarter and a 5% increase year-over-year [3][4] - The company achieved net earnings of approximately $6.1 million for fiscal 2025, despite challenging steel price trends and economic factors [3][5] - The company's sales volume remained stable at approximately 500,000 tons for the year, reflecting resilience amid various challenges [3][5] Quarterly Performance - For the quarter ended March 31, 2025, net earnings were approximately $5.3 million ($0.76 diluted earnings per share) on sales of approximately $129.2 million, compared to net earnings of approximately $5.0 million ($0.71 diluted earnings per share) on sales of approximately $132.2 million for the same quarter in 2024 [4][7] - Sales volume increased from approximately 159,000 tons in the 2024 quarter to approximately 166,500 tons in the 2025 quarter [4][7] Annual Performance - For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, net earnings were approximately $6.1 million ($0.87 diluted earnings per share) on sales of approximately $444.6 million, down from net earnings of approximately $17.3 million ($2.39 diluted earnings per share) on sales of approximately $516.3 million for fiscal 2024 [5][7] - The working capital balance at year-end was $128.1 million [7] Segment Operations - Flat-roll segment sales for the 2025 quarter totaled approximately $117.7 million, with a sales volume of approximately 139,000 tons from inventory and 16,500 tons of toll processing [10] - Tubular segment sales for the 2025 quarter totaled approximately $11.5 million, with tons sold increasing from approximately 9,500 tons in the 2024 quarter to approximately 11,000 tons in the 2025 quarter [11] Hedging Activities - The company recognized a gain on hedging activities of approximately $1.8 million for the 2025 quarter and a total hedging gain of approximately $7.6 million for fiscal 2025 [12] Outlook - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the company expects sales volume to be slightly lower than the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 due to equipment downtime, but anticipates improved margins [13]

Key Takeaways POSCO unveiled a research and development lab in Perth to boost battery materials and rare earths. The lab supports POSCO's drive for raw material localization and carbon-reducing innovations. PKX aims to advance tech in lithium, nickel and rare earths through local collaboration.POSCO Holdings (PKX) has opened the Australia Critical Minerals R&D Lab in Perth with the goal of achieving ultra-gaps in technological competitiveness in the steel, battery material, raw materials and rare earth in ...

Steel tariffs gaveth, and now steel tariffs taketh away... from Cleveland-Cliffs' stock price.Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF -8.29%) stock fell 8.5% through 2:10 p.m. ET Tuesday after Reuters reported on new trade negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico that could significantly roll back 50% tariffs on steel imports -- which had themselves been announced only last week. 50% -- up to a pointThe negotiations would not affect all steel imports -- only those from Mexico, and only to an extent. While details haven't ye ...

Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for moment ...

June 11, 2025 12:22 AM GMT Steel | North America Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Mexico and the United States Reportedly Work Towards Steel Tariff Agreement What's New? The United States and Mexico are reportedly working towards a trade deal that would remove the 50% tariff on steel imports, per Bloomberg (here). The agreement, which has not been finalized according to the report, is said to allow Mexico to export tariff-free steel into the US "up to a certain volume" with tonnage above this agreed level to pay a ...

Core Viewpoint - Nucor's recent stock performance and upcoming earnings report are critical for investors, with expectations of a decline in earnings per share but a slight increase in revenue compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Nucor's stock closed at $124.68, reflecting a +1.75% increase, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.55% [1] - Over the past month, Nucor shares have increased by 2.01%, which is below the Basic Materials sector's gain of 4.58% and the S&P 500's gain of 6.29% [1]. Group 2: Earnings Expectations - Analysts expect Nucor to report earnings of $2.21 per share, representing a year-over-year decline of 17.54% [2]. - For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $7.88 per share, indicating a decrease of 11.46% from the previous year [3]. Group 3: Revenue Projections - The consensus estimate for Nucor's revenue in the upcoming earnings report is $8.28 billion, which is an increase of 2.55% from the prior-year quarter [2]. - For the full year, revenue is projected to be $31.48 billion, reflecting a growth of 2.43% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 4: Analyst Projections and Stock Ratings - Recent shifts in analyst projections for Nucor are important for understanding business trends, with upward revisions indicating positive sentiment towards the company's operations [4]. - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates estimate changes, currently ranks Nucor at 3 (Hold), with no changes in the EPS estimate over the last 30 days [6]. Group 5: Valuation Metrics - Nucor's Forward P/E ratio is 15.54, which is higher than the industry's average Forward P/E of 10.69 [7]. - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.78, compared to the Steel - Producers industry's average PEG ratio of 0.94 [7]. Group 6: Industry Overview - The Steel - Producers industry, part of the Basic Materials sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 68, placing it in the top 28% of over 250 industries [8].