Core Insights - Auto loan refinancing presents significant savings potential for consumers and opportunities for lenders amid persistent inflation and elevated interest rates [1][4] - Approximately 18 million out of nearly 80 million open auto loans in the U.S. are considered "in-the-money" for refinancing, indicating strong candidates for financial benefits [2][4] - Average monthly savings from auto loan refinancing have decreased from $107 in 2021 to $90 in 2024, yet remain substantial for many consumers [3] Consumer Behavior - More than half of consumers surveyed would consider refinancing if they could save between $50 and $149 per month, highlighting a strong motivation for cost-saving measures [3] - The number of consumers eligible for refinancing could increase significantly if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, with a potential rise to nearly 20 million with a 25-basis point cut [4] Loan Performance - Consumers who refinanced their auto loans showed a lower likelihood of being 60 or more days past due by 170 basis points compared to those with original purchase loans, with a 320 basis point improvement noted among near prime borrowers [6] - Auto refinance loans are outperforming original purchase loans across all credit tiers, indicating a consistent trend of stronger repayment behavior [5][6] Market Opportunities - Lenders are encouraged to target qualified borrowers for refinancing opportunities, as those who refinance tend to be more financially savvy and proactive in managing their credit [7] - Utilizing tools like TransUnion TruVision LTV prescreens can help lenders identify consumers in specific equity positions for refinancing offers, enhancing marketing strategies [7]

American Express on Friday reported better second-quarter revenue and profits than analysts had expected. https://t.co/8eXSHeQS5W ...

We are getting a market flash on American Express. For that, we'll turn to Hugh Son. Just talked to the CFO.Morning, Hugh. >> That's right, Carl. So, AMX CEO Christoff Layak telling me that their customers have been quote amazingly resilient in the second quarter.Now, as a reminder, the company topped estimates for profit and revenue on a 20% jump in card fees. So, it's been no secret that affluent Americans haven't slowed down their spending, and that remains the case. There are, however, interesting trend ...

Market Overview - Pre-market futures show positive movement with the Dow up +0.12%, S&P 500 +0.09%, Nasdaq +0.16%, and Russell 2000 leading at +0.52% [1] Bond Market - Bond yields remain stable with the 10-year yield at +4.44%, a slight increase of 3 basis points from last Friday, while the 2-year yield is at +3.88% and the 30-year yield at +5.00% [2] Housing Market - Housing Starts for June are reported at 1.32 million, slightly above projections, but still historically low compared to multi-year highs of 500K more in April 2022 [3] - Building Permits increased to 1.397 million from 1.394 million in May, but remain low compared to nearly 2 million in January 2022, prior to interest rate hikes [4] Company Earnings - 3M reported Q2 earnings of $2.16 per share, exceeding expectations of $2.01, with revenues of $6.2 billion, raising full-year 2025 earnings guidance to $7.75-8.00 per share [5] - American Express surpassed Q2 expectations with earnings of $4.08 per share and revenues of $17.9 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of +9% [6] - Charles Schwab's Q2 report showed earnings of $1.14 per share and revenues of $5.85 billion, both exceeding consensus estimates, with shares up +5% in pre-market trading [7] Economic Indicators - A preliminary print on Consumer Sentiment for July is expected to improve to 61.8 from 60.7, aligning with a healthier economic outlook as fears of tariffs impacting the economy have lessened [8]

Business Performance - American Express' billed business on its cards and other products exceeded expectations in the second quarter [1]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has achieved a cumulative return of nearly 5,800,000% on Class A shares over 60 years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by almost 140 times [2] - Buffett's investment strategy focuses on concentrating capital in a few high-conviction stocks, with 58% of Berkshire's $292 billion portfolio invested in just four major holdings [5] Group 1: Major Holdings - Apple is the largest holding at $62.6 billion, representing 21.5% of invested assets, although Buffett has sold 67% of his stake since September 2023 [6][7] - American Express is the second-largest holding at $48.7 billion, accounting for 16.7% of invested assets, benefiting from its dual role as a payment processor and lender [12][13] - Bank of America is the third-largest holding at $29.7 billion, making up 10.2% of invested assets, with Buffett selling shares due to profit-taking and expectations of declining interest rates [16][17] - Coca-Cola is the fourth-largest holding at $27.8 billion, representing 9.5% of invested assets, known for its stable cash flow and strong brand loyalty [21][22] Group 2: Investment Rationale - Buffett values companies with sustainable competitive advantages, as seen in his long-term investments in Apple, American Express, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola [4][21] - The investment in Apple is supported by its strong consumer loyalty and growth in subscription services, despite stagnant device sales [8][10] - American Express attracts high-earning clientele, which helps mitigate risks during economic downturns [15] - Coca-Cola's geographic diversity and consistent cash flow make it a reliable investment, with a significant yield on cost due to a low cost basis [23][25]

Group 1 - American Express is set to release its Q2 earnings results on July 18, with expected earnings of $3.86 per share, down from $4.15 per share in the previous year [1] - The projected quarterly revenue for American Express is $17.7 billion, an increase from $16.33 billion a year earlier [1] - The company's board declared a regular quarterly dividend of 82 cents per common share [2] Group 2 - JP Morgan analyst Richard Shane maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $260 to $342 [4] - Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck maintained an Equal-Weight rating and increased the price target from $250 to $311 [4] - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Sanjay Sakhrani maintained an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $360 to $371 [4] - Truist Securities analyst Brian Foran maintained a Buy rating and increased the price target from $375 to $340 [4] - Citigroup analyst Keith Horowitz maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $300 to $327 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that American Express (AXP) will report quarterly earnings of $3.86 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.6%, with revenues expected to reach $17.69 billion, an 8.3% increase from the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - There have been no revisions in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analysts' forecasts [1][2] Key Metrics Projections - The consensus estimate for 'Book value per common share' is $44.84, up from $39.26 in the same quarter last year [4] - 'Risk-Based Capital - Common Equity Tier 1' is projected to be 10.5%, slightly down from 10.8% in the same quarter of the previous year [4] Commercial Services Metrics - 'Commercial Services - Card Member Loans - Total loans' are expected to reach $32.53 billion, compared to $28.62 billion in the same quarter last year [5] - 'Commercial Services - Card Member loans - Average Loans' is projected at $31.83 billion, up from $28.03 billion in the same quarter last year [5] International Card Services Metrics - 'International Card Services - Card Member loans - consumer and small business - Average loans' is forecasted to be $17.98 billion, compared to $16.84 billion in the same quarter last year [6] - 'International Card Services - Card Member loans - consumer and small business - Total loans' is expected to reach $18.50 billion, up from $17.27 billion a year ago [6] U.S. Consumer Services Metrics - 'U.S. Consumer Services - Card Member loans - Total loans' is projected at $92.66 billion, compared to $84.96 billion in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Card billed business (Network volumes)' is expected to reach $465.80 billion, up from $440.60 billion a year ago [7] Average Card Member Loans - 'Average Card Member loans' is expected to be $141.10 billion, compared to $128.32 billion in the same quarter last year [8] - 'Total Card Member loans' is projected at $143.69 billion, up from $130.85 billion in the same quarter last year [8] Non-Interest Revenues - 'Total non-interest revenues' are projected to reach $13.40 billion, compared to $12.60 billion in the same quarter last year [9] Stock Performance - Shares of American Express have returned +9.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5% change [10]

Core Insights - Dividend stocks have significantly outperformed non-dividend payers over the past 50 years, with a 9.2% average annual return compared to 4.3% [1] - Dividend growers and initiators have provided even better returns, averaging 10.2% [1] Company Summaries - **Alphabet**: Despite a low dividend yield of 0.5%, Alphabet has a low valuation and has raised its payout by 5% this year. The company is cash-rich and has strong growth drivers, particularly in AI [4][5] - **American Water Works**: This leading water utility has a dividend yield of 2.3%, nearly double the S&P 500's yield. It pays out 55% to 60% of its earnings in dividends and expects to grow its earnings per share by 7% to 9% annually [6][5] - **Broadcom**: With a dividend yield of 0.9%, Broadcom has consistently raised its payout for 14 years, including an 11% increase last year. The company is experiencing rapid growth in AI semiconductor demand, with AI revenue growing 220% to $12.2 billion [7][8] - **Brookfield Renewable**: This company offers a dividend yield of over 4.5%, supported by stable cash flow. It expects to increase its funds from operations per share by over 10% annually, which will support a dividend increase of 5% to 9% per year [9][10] - **Realty Income**: With a dividend yield of over 5.5%, Realty Income has raised its dividend 131 times since its public listing. The REIT has a strong financial profile and expects to continue delivering a rising income stream [11][12] - **PepsiCo**: The company has a dividend yield of over 4% and has raised its payout for 53 consecutive years. PepsiCo anticipates 4% to 6% annual revenue growth, supporting its dividend increases [13][14] - **Prologis**: This industrial REIT has a dividend yield approaching 4% and has grown its dividend at a 13% compound annual rate over the past five years. Strong demand for warehouse space supports its growth [15][16] - **Johnson & Johnson**: With a dividend yield of over 3%, the company has raised its payout for 63 consecutive years. It generates about $20 billion in free cash flow annually, more than sufficient to cover its dividend [17][18] - **NextEra Energy**: The utility has a 3% dividend yield and has grown its payout at a 10% compound annual rate over the past 20 years. Heavy investments in renewable energy are expected to drive future growth [19][20] - **Visa**: Despite a low dividend yield of 0.7%, Visa has raised its payout at a compound annual rate of over 17% for the past decade and generated nearly $9.5 billion in free cash flow over the last year [21][22]

Visa shares slid this week after the Senate passed a regulatory framework for companies issuing stablecoins, potentially opening the door for merchants to bypass card-based payment systems. Monitor these major support and resistance chart levels. https://t.co/pc66Y2TgdJ ...