Talent Retention - Goldman Sachs plans to regularly assess junior bankers' loyalty to curb poaching by talent-hungry buyout firms [1]

Strategists at Bernstein Societe Generale recommended buying Indian stocks with upward earnings revisions to navigate the market’s lofty valuations https://t.co/R3N4rORlx1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an unchanged view on emerging markets (EM) inflows, driven by lower yields and a weaker USD, which are expected to support EM inflows [1][10]. Core Insights - A 1% decrease in the USD is projected to result in approximately US$360 million inflows into EM local markets [10][29]. - A 1% outflow from foreign US Treasury holdings into EM local markets could equate to around 3% of local debt market size, 48% of daily FX turnover, and 0.8% of GDP across GBIEM countries [10][39]. - Current valuations in sovereign credit show little risk premium for tariff policy, with idiosyncratic drivers being the main source of dispersion [10][44]. Summary by Sections EM Flows and USD Sensitivity - The analysis indicates that EM local flows are significantly influenced by USD movements, with historical data supporting this relationship [21][32]. - The report highlights that the relationship between USD weakness and EM inflows has been consistently negative and statistically significant over the past decade [32][36]. Sovereign Credit Strategy - The report notes that EMBI index spreads are trading close to historical lows, with minimal risk premium priced in for potential tariff impacts [44][45]. - Specific countries like Zambia are on the verge of a credit rating upgrade, which could enhance their debt carrying capacity [70][50]. Regional Strategies - In Latin America, the Mexican Peso (MXN) has shown mild long positioning despite recent rallies, with its performance linked to US risk appetite [3][62]. - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic fundamentals in shaping currency performance, particularly in the context of upcoming elections in Chile [83]. Trade Recommendations - The report includes specific trade recommendations, such as buying Zambia's 2053 bond with a target price of 77, reflecting a positive outlook on its credit rating upgrade [70][61]. - It also suggests maintaining positions in Turkey's sovereign credit, anticipating gradual rate cuts and resilience against economic shocks [71][75].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - Trade uncertainty is expected to persist, impacting corporate confidence, capital expenditure (capex), and the overall trade cycle [6][36] - High-frequency data is anticipated to reflect negative impacts on the growth cycle in the upcoming 2-3 months [6][36] Summary by Relevant Sections Trade Negotiation Status - Vietnam is the only country that has secured a trade agreement, while negotiations with other economies remain unclear [6] - The US and China face significant challenges in reaching a comprehensive trade deal, particularly regarding transshipments and sectoral tariffs for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [6][33] Economic Implications - The report highlights that if trade agreements are secured, the best-case scenario would be for tariff rates to remain at current levels [18] - If no progress is made, tariff rates could revert to levels announced on April 2, 2025, which would significantly impact various economies [18] Country-Specific Negotiation Updates - **China**: Current tariff rate is 42%, with ongoing negotiations regarding rare earth exports and chip design software [56] - **India**: Current tariff rate is 11%, with India emphasizing that trade agreements must align with national interests [56] - **Indonesia**: Current tariff rate is 15%, with a focus on securing a comprehensive trade deal covering critical minerals and energy [56] - **Japan**: Current tariff rate is 17%, with unresolved issues on auto tariffs and agricultural market access [56] - **Korea**: Current tariff rate is 16%, with ongoing negotiations to extend tariff pauses [56] - **Malaysia**: Current tariff rate is 8%, with limited updates following two rounds of negotiations [56] - **Taiwan**: Current tariff rate is 7%, aiming for a zero-tariff deal and increased US goods purchases [56] - **Thailand**: Current tariff rate is 11%, with proposals to reduce trade surplus with the US [56] - **Vietnam**: Current effective tariff rate is 20%, with commitments to remove tariffs on US goods [56] Tariff Rate Changes - The report indicates that the US trade-weighted tariff rates on imports from Asia have increased significantly, with potential further increases [13][14] - The emergence of a two-tiered tariff structure for imports from Vietnam highlights the US's focus on addressing transshipment issues [21][22] Economic Data Trends - High-frequency shipping indicators show a slowdown in activity, suggesting that the initial strength in trade may be waning [36][46] - Capital goods imports have held up, but there are signs of potential weakness in the coming months [36][41]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative skew in economic data surprises across developed markets (DMs) [2][4]. Core Insights - The GS Macro Data Assessment (MAP) Surprise Indices have turned negative across DMs over the last several weeks, indicating a decline in economic performance relative to expectations [2][4]. - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has eased primarily due to movements in equities and credit spreads, suggesting tighter financial conditions impacting growth [9][30]. - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for June shows a global value of +1.9%, with emerging markets performing better than developed markets [49][46]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - The MAP surprise indices reflect a negative trend in economic indicators across multiple developed countries, suggesting a downturn in economic activity [2][4]. - The CAI for June indicates a +1.9% growth globally, with emerging markets like India and China showing stronger performance compared to developed markets [49][46]. Financial Conditions - The Global ex Russia FCI has eased, primarily influenced by equity markets and credit spreads, indicating a tightening of financial conditions that could affect GDP growth [9][30]. - The report highlights that the FCI levels across various countries have shown significant changes, with notable tightening in regions like China and Turkey [37][30]. GDP Forecasts - The report presents changes in GDP forecasts for 2025, with Vietnam projected to grow by 1.9%, while the US shows a downward adjustment [92][93]. - The GDP forecast adjustments reflect a broader trend of declining growth expectations across developed markets compared to emerging markets [92][93].

Core Insights - Quantexa has appointed Steven Guggenheimer and Franck Petitgas to its Advisory Board to enhance its global presence and innovation in Decision Intelligence [1][2] - The company recently completed a $175 million Series F funding round and has a growing customer base that includes leading banks, insurers, and government agencies [2][7] Company Strategy - The appointments aim to support Quantexa's vision of AI-powered enterprise transformation and to assist nations in achieving AI sovereignty [2][4] - Guggenheimer's experience in enterprise technology and AI will be crucial for expanding Quantexa's platform and accelerating growth in key markets [3][5] - Petitgas brings extensive financial and regulatory insights, which will aid in Quantexa's engagement with global clients and strategic partners [4][5] Product and Performance - Quantexa's Decision Intelligence Platform enhances operational performance with over 90% more accuracy and 60 times faster analytical model resolution compared to traditional methods [7] - An independent Forrester TEI study reported that customers experienced a three-year ROI of 228% from using Quantexa's platform [7] - The company, founded in 2016, has grown to over 800 employees and serves thousands of users, managing billions of transactions and data points globally [7]

Industry Trends & Challenges - The finance industry is seeing a growing number of powerful women managing vast amounts of capital, indicating a shift in the traditionally male-dominated field [1][2] - The industry average for women on finance teams is lower than Guggenheim's 30%, highlighting a need for further progress towards gender parity [6] - There's a perception that "greed is good," as portrayed in media like "Wolf of Wall Street," which may deter women and young people seeking purposeful careers from entering the finance industry [5] - DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) initiatives are facing pushback, potentially slowing down the momentum of increasing diversity among fund managers and founders [23][25] - Some individuals still hold biases, such as the belief that "chicks can't do math," revealing persistent stereotypes in the finance sector [31] Women's Impact & Opportunities - Women control approximately 80% of global discretionary spending, demonstrating their significant economic influence [13] - Women are projected to control over 50% of the global wealth market in the next five years, indicating a major shift in financial power [13] - Women-led firms controlled only 0.7% of assets in alternative investments as of 2021, revealing a significant disparity in asset control [14] - Companies with more gender diversity on executive teams are 25% more likely to achieve above-average profitability, underscoring the business case for inclusion and diversity [47] - Women are finding success in less institutionalized areas like music, media, and entertainment, building businesses in less trafficked sectors [30] Leadership & Progress - As of the report's timeline, Jane Fraser is the only woman to lead a major US bank, highlighting the ongoing underrepresentation of women in top leadership positions [38] - Citigroup moves $5 trillion a day, exceeding the GDP of France, showcasing the scale of responsibility held by its CEO [41] - The trading floor environment is more positive and diverse compared to the 1980s, indicating cultural transformations within financial institutions [48] - Progress for women in finance is not always linear, and there's a responsibility to continue advocating for change for future generations [34][50]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and implied volatility in FX markets, suggesting that current levels of implied volatility are justified given the macro backdrop [4][46]. Core Insights - The report highlights that FX volatility has declined due to improved macroeconomic conditions, including a recent trade deal between the US and China, which has alleviated some recession and inflation risks [4][46]. - There is a strong positive relationship between FX implied volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty, indicating that when uncertainty increases, implied volatility tends to rise [28][32]. - The report emphasizes that US macroeconomic uncertainty has a more significant impact on FX volatility compared to other regions, particularly through factors like CPI uncertainty [28][31]. Summary by Sections Macro Drivers of Implied Volatility - Recent declines in FX implied volatility are linked to a less uncertain macroeconomic environment, with reduced tail risks related to recession and inflation [4][46]. - The report quantifies the impact of macro uncertainty on FX implied volatility using economic forecasts from Consensus Economics [21][27]. Relationship Between Realized and Implied Volatility - Implied volatility is closely related to realized volatility, often leading to mispricing in the early stages of economic shifts [9][12]. - Realized volatility has exceeded implied volatility for most of the year, indicating that markets have underpriced the actual volatility in FX markets [12][46]. Literature on Macro Drivers of Volatility - Previous studies confirm that macroeconomic conditions, particularly monetary policy, are key drivers of FX volatility [16][19]. - The report discusses how inflation and interest rate differentials have historically influenced volatility trends in FX markets [16][19]. Estimating the Impact of Macro Uncertainty - The report employs regression analysis to demonstrate the strong relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and FX implied volatility across major currency pairs [27][28]. - US CPI uncertainty is identified as the strongest explanatory factor for FX volatility, followed closely by domestic monetary policy uncertainty [31][32]. What Matters at Different Points in Time - The report notes that while inflation has been a key driver of volatility, this relationship can shift over time based on economic conditions [34][35]. - Recent benign inflation data from the US has contributed to lower FX volatility, but potential increases in tariff rates could heighten macro uncertainty and volatility [34][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a price forecast for Brent crude oil averaging $59 in Q4 2025 and $56 in 2026 despite an increase in OPEC+ production quotas [2][9][18] Core Insights - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 0.55 million barrels per day (mb/d) for August, exceeding both consensus and previous expectations [2][3] - The report anticipates a further increase of 0.55 mb/d for September, completing the return of 2.2 mb/d of cuts and a 0.3 mb/d increase in UAE production [4][6] - The rationale behind these increases includes a steady global economic outlook and resilient demand, as indicated by low oil inventories [3][5] - Compliance with OPEC+ compensation cuts has been stronger than expected, contributing to the revised production assumptions [9][10] - The report highlights that reduced OPEC+ spare capacity is likely to raise long-dated oil prices, estimating a decline in global spare capacity to 2.5-4% of global demand by September 2025 [14][18] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Adjustments - OPEC+ has announced a total production increase of 1.92 mb/d, which corresponds to 78% of the total voluntary cuts and the increase in UAE production [3][4] - The expected rise in OPEC+ crude production from March to September is projected to be 1.67 mb/d, reaching 33.2 mb/d by September [6][12] Price Forecast and Market Dynamics - The report keeps the price forecast stable despite the production increases, citing stronger compliance with cuts and potential upside risks to demand forecasts [9][14] - The anticipated increase in global oil demand is projected at 0.6 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026, driven by robust demand from China and global economic activity [14][21] Compliance and Production Realization - The report notes that actual increases in OPEC+ production have been in line with quotas after adjusting for compensation cuts, with a significant portion of the increase attributed to Saudi Arabia [10][13] - The compliance rates among OPEC+ members have varied, with some countries exceeding their required production levels [10][13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the implications of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB) on macroeconomic factors and the energy transition in the United States. Core Points and Arguments Macro Implications 1. **Tax Regime Changes**: OBBB permanently extends lower individual tax rates from the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA) and introduces significant business tax cuts, including immediate expensing of domestic R&D, which could benefit sectors like biotech, healthcare, and energy [2][3] 2. **Federal Debt Projections**: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects federal debt to rise from 100% of GDP today to 118% by 2035, with annual deficits averaging 5.8% of GDP. The bill is estimated to add over $3 trillion to the deficit [3][4] 3. **Fiscal Cost Assessment**: The "current policy" baseline used by Senate Republicans may mask the true fiscal cost of OBBB, potentially leading to a smaller apparent deficit impact [4] 4. **Removal of Section 899**: The removal of Section 899, which proposed a retaliatory tax on passive income from US assets, is seen as a positive for US firms, potentially stabilizing investor sentiment [5] Social and Political Dynamics 5. **Populist Appeal vs. Social Spending Cuts**: While OBBB is marketed as a populist bill, critics argue that cuts to Medicaid and SNAP could harm working families, creating a tension that may benefit Democrats in future elections [10] 6. **Elon Musk's Political Influence**: Elon Musk is emerging as a disruptive political force, potentially challenging GOP senators who support OBBB and advocating for a new political party [11] Medicaid and State Budget Implications 7. **Medicaid Cuts**: OBBB includes $930 billion in cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act, which could restrict states' budget flexibility and force them to cut services or raise taxes [12] Energy Transition Implications 8. **Differentiation in Energy Tax Credits**: The bill treats different energy generation sources differently regarding tax credits, with nuclear and geothermal projects receiving favorable treatment compared to wind and solar [15] 9. **Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) Rules**: New clean generation projects must comply with FEOC rules to qualify for tax credits, aiming to reduce reliance on Chinese goods in the clean energy supply chain [17] 10. **Support for Carbon Management**: The 45Q tax credit for carbon capture remains intact, which is seen as a positive for carbon capture and removal projects [18] 11. **Permitting Challenges**: The removal of permitting changes from OBBB highlights ongoing bottlenecks in the energy transition process, with expectations for a standalone bill to address these issues [19] 12. **Consumer Spending on Clean Energy**: The withdrawal of consumer-facing credits may challenge retail spending in clean energy investments, particularly in the electric vehicle market [20] Corporate Tax Changes 13. **Lower Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax**: The final version of OBBB includes exceptions for domestic oil and gas companies regarding the 15% tax floor introduced by Biden's IRA [21] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The bill's provisions for student loan repayment and immigration changes could reshape labor dynamics and educational enrollment, potentially impacting the workforce in the long term [14] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the implications of the OBBB on various sectors and the broader economic landscape.