Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June increased by 0.2 percentage points month-on-month to 49.7, slightly surpassing consensus expectations of 49.6, driven by strong fiscal front-loading [7] - Export momentum is weakening, with the new export order index rising only 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, remaining significantly below pre-tariff levels, indicating a potential end to strong US-bound shipping [3][4] - Real GDP growth is expected to decline from 5% year-on-year in Q2 to 4.5% in Q3 due to fading export front-loading and muted stimulus measures anticipated from the government [4][7] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, supported by stronger new orders and production, particularly in consumer goods and base materials [2][7] - The construction PMI also saw a notable increase of 1.8 percentage points month-on-month to 52.8, reflecting ongoing fiscal support for infrastructure spending [2] Export Dynamics - The new export orders index showed a slight increase but remains low compared to historical levels, suggesting a slowdown in export activities [3][4] - Container throughput has weakened, indicating a broader decline in export volumes to various destinations [3] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a decrease in real GDP growth to 4.5% year-on-year in Q3, influenced by the diminishing impact of export front-loading and a lack of significant new fiscal stimulus [4][7] - A modest supplementary fiscal stimulus of Rmb0.5-1 trillion is expected to be introduced by the government in late Q3 or early Q4 if economic data continues to show weakness [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a solid investment outlook for the China economy, with expectations of a supplementary budget of Rmb0.5-1 trillion in response to weaker data in the coming months [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a robust performance in Q2 2025, but notes a softening momentum, suggesting that a fall stimulus is likely to be implemented [2][3]. - Structural reforms are deemed essential for sustained economic reflation, with a focus on social welfare reform, debt restructuring, and improving fiscal governance [3]. - Retail sales have remained strong, particularly in the auto and home appliance sectors, although there are concerns about subdued sales in other consumer goods categories [5][7]. - Exports are expected to slow further, despite a rebound in US-bound shipping, indicating potential challenges in international trade [10][12]. - The housing market is experiencing a downturn, with secondary home sales weakening and local government financing pressures increasing [15][20]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Q2 2025 data shows solid economic performance, but momentum is softening, leading to expectations of a fall stimulus [2][3]. - Retail sales in June were strong, driven by front-loaded demand in the auto and home appliance sectors [5]. Policy Outlook - The report anticipates a supplementary budget of Rmb0.5-1 trillion to address weaker economic data in the upcoming months [3]. - Structural reforms are necessary for sustained reflation, focusing on social welfare, debt restructuring, and fiscal governance [3]. Trade and Exports - Exports are likely to slow further, with June showing a decline despite a rebound in US-bound shipping [10][12]. - Container throughput at major ports has slipped sharply, indicating challenges in trade logistics [11]. Housing Market - The housing market is under pressure, with secondary home sales weakening and local government financing facing challenges [15][20]. - Major tax revenues and land sales have underperformed, contributing to fiscal pressures [20]. Construction Activity - Weak construction activities are indicated by subdued demand for rebar and cement, suggesting a slowdown in overall construction [21][23]. RMB Internationalization - The report discusses the roadmap for RMB cross-border settlement and highlights the importance of stablecoins in reinforcing dollar dominance in the near term [27][28].

Investment Rating - The report recommends an overweight position in US equities, suggesting they remain attractive compared to the rest of the world [9]. Core Insights - There is a narrative questioning whether foreign investors are fleeing US assets, driven by uncertainties in trade and tariff policies. However, data indicates that while foreign investors have slowed their pace of buying US stocks, they have not significantly reallocated away from them [2][4]. - US risky and risk-free assets are viewed as attractive, with a recommendation for an equal-weight position in global equities while overweighting US equities due to better earnings revision breadth in the US compared to other regions [9]. - The report highlights persistent weakness in the US dollar over the next 12 months, driven by a convergence of US rates and growth to peers, alongside elevated policy uncertainty [10]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Flows**: International investors have been net buyers of US equities post-Liberation Day, but the buying pace has slowed compared to 2024, although it remains higher than in 2021-2023. US investors, in contrast, have been net sellers, reallocating away from US equities [3][4]. - **Bond Funds**: Net inflows to US bond funds have been positive but slower than the previous year. Foreign investors have remained net buyers of US bonds, indicating no significant outflows from US bonds [5][8]. - **Regional Allocation**: The weight of US equities in global equity funds has decreased, reflecting a market correction rather than net outflows. This change aligns with the overall market cap of US equities shrinking as a share of the global equity benchmark index [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a long position in UST duration at the 5-year key rate and recommends maintaining long positions in UST 3s30s and term SOFR 1y1y vs. 5y5y steepeners ahead of potential range breakouts post-month-end [6][10][41]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the performance of the S&P 500 Index often does not accurately predict economic recessions, with historical data showing that in 27% of NBER-declared recessions, the S&P 500 peaked in or after the month the recession began [6][21]. - It highlights the importance of upcoming US labor market data, particularly the May JOLTS and June employment reports, which could significantly influence the yield curve and Treasury yields [18][32]. - The report notes a significant decrease in the US Treasury's cash flow deficit over the past three months, attributed to higher tax revenues, tariff revenues, and reduced government spending [19][29]. Summary by Sections Economic Data and Market Performance - The report argues that investors should focus on economic data rather than the stock market, as historical trends indicate that equity performance often misleads regarding impending recessions [9][11]. - It points out that the S&P 500 Index's performance leading up to recessions has often been misleading, with many instances where the index was near its peak when recessions began [15][21]. Labor Market Insights - The upcoming labor market data is critical, with expectations for total payroll growth of 140,000, which aligns with recent trends but contrasts with rising unemployment claims [32][36]. - The report suggests that the labor market data could catalyze a repricing of risks in the US rates market, particularly if the data indicates downside risks [30][41]. Treasury Financing Needs - The report discusses the US Treasury's financing needs, noting a significant reduction in the cash flow deficit, which fell to $111 billion over a recent 63-day period, down 75% from the previous year [29][30]. - It highlights that tariff revenues have played a significant role in reducing the cash flow deficit, with annualized tariff revenue reaching $323.9 billion, or 1.1% of nominal GDP, a notable increase from historical averages [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a high conviction level on several currency trades, including short USD/TWD and long EUR/INR, both rated at 4/5 [5][9][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a weaker USD trend supported by geopolitical developments, particularly the de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, which is expected to strengthen the softer USD theme [3][5]. - There is a notable shift in US portfolio allocation, with signs of slowing inflows into US equities and bonds, indicating potential reallocation into other global markets [7]. - The report highlights the importance of upcoming US labor market data, particularly the June nonfarm payrolls, which could significantly impact USD movements [7][20]. Summary by Sections Asia FX Strategy - The conviction level for short USD/TWD has been raised to 4/5, with a target of 27.0 by mid-July, reflecting strong foreign equity inflows and limited scope for the CBC to intervene [9][11]. - Long EUR/INR position has its target increased to 103, supported by the RBI's FX bias and expected continued foreign inflows [11][12]. - The report maintains a long USD/HKD position, anticipating continued HKD liquidity withdrawal by the HKMA [13]. G10 FX Strategy - Long EUR/GBP is maintained with a target of 0.8750 by end-October, driven by sticky inflation in the Eurozone and a weaker USD [20][24]. - Short USD/JPY is recommended, targeting 136 by end-September, as the risk of major JPY weakness has subsided [19][24]. - Long NZD/CAD is positioned with a target of 0.8520 by end-September, supported by improved global sentiment and a weaker USD [22][23]. Asia Rates Strategy - High conviction is maintained for pay 5y China NDIRS, expecting higher long-end rates due to anticipated stimulus measures from Beijing [25]. - In India, a 2y NDOIS receive position is maintained, with expectations for INR rates to trade in a narrow range due to recent RBI actions [26]. - The report suggests exiting pay Sep-IMM 5y NDIRS in Korea, as market pricing may be low relative to expected growth and fiscal policy [27].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economic Outlook** for 2025, highlighting macroeconomic trends and forecasts by **Goldman Sachs**. Core Insights and Arguments - **2024 Growth Achievement**: China successfully met its growth target of "around 5%" in 2024, primarily driven by exports and related manufacturing investments [7][10]. - **2025 Growth Forecast**: The growth forecast for 2025 is set at **4.6%**, slightly above consensus expectations. This is attributed to a cautious outlook on real GDP growth due to challenges such as demographics, debt, and de-risking [9][10]. - **Inflation Projections**: Inflation forecasts for 2025 are notably low, with **CPI expected at 0.0%** and **PPI at -2.4%**, both below consensus expectations [10][64]. - **Fiscal Deficit**: The augmented fiscal deficit is projected to widen by **2.4 percentage points of GDP** in 2025 compared to 2024, indicating increased government spending [10][70]. - **Trade Dynamics**: The report anticipates that elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods will negatively impact GDP growth, although growth in exports to other countries may provide some offset [10][19]. - **Monetary Policy**: Further cuts to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rates are expected in Q4 2025, alongside an appreciation of the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar [10][34]. Additional Important Insights - **Export Trends**: Chinese nominal exports to the US have significantly declined, while exports to other economies have increased, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [22][25]. - **Consumer Sentiment**: The labor market has weakened, and consumer sentiment remains depressed, which could impact domestic consumption [48][51]. - **Property Market**: There is ongoing weakness in the property market, with demand for new homes expected to stay low, posing risks to economic stability [54][61]. - **Policy Support**: Ongoing and planned policy easing measures are expected to favor technology and high-quality growth, although implementation challenges remain [76][82]. Conclusion - The report presents a cautious yet slightly optimistic outlook for China's economy in 2025, emphasizing the need for policy support to navigate existing challenges while highlighting potential growth areas in technology and exports to non-US markets.

Press release Regulated information Brussels, June 30, 2025, 18:00 CEST In line with Belgian transparency legislation (Law of May 2, 2007), The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc recently sent to Solvay the following transparency notification indicating that they crossed the threshold of 5%. Here is a summary of the notification: Date on which the threshold was crossed Voting rights after the transaction Equivalent financial instruments after the transaction Total June 19, 2025 0.03% 5.51% 5.54% The notif ...

Morgan Stanley has appointed Drew Guevara as a global co-head of technology investment banking as part of a broader reshuffle of one of the Wall Street bank’s most storied franchises https://t.co/02Xx8CUtvP ...

Financial Performance & Returns - The company returned approximately $28 billion to shareholders[7, 65] - The company's Last Twelve Months (LTM) revenue as of Q1 2025 was $1284 million[7] - The total shareholder return is approximately 400%[7] - Revenue growth from FY 2014 to LTM Q1 2025 was 147%[7] Talent & Global Reach - The company has 168 Managing Directors (MDs), with approximately 45% being internally promoted[7] - The company has approximately 1300 employees[7] - The company has a global presence with 23 locations and advises clients in over 45 countries[7] - The company has deep knowledge in over 85 industries/sectors[7] Advisory Services - The company has restructured approximately $1 trillion of liabilities since its IPO in 2014[26] - The company's Private Capital Advisory team has advised on over $75 billion in private capital[39] - The company has raised approximately $200 billion in capital since its IPO[36] M&A Performance - The company has been involved in $22 trillion in transaction volume since its IPO[22]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Long-term interest rates have risen or remained elevated in many countries, with China being a notable exception where rates have fallen to a historic low of 1.6% [3][38] - The rise in long-term rates in Japan, the US, and Europe is attributed to a combination of factors, including the shift from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT) and persistent private-sector financial surpluses [13][17] - The report highlights that the current economic conditions in China resemble Japan's post-bubble period, indicating a balance sheet recession where the private sector is focused on deleveraging rather than borrowing [43][76] Summary by Sections Long-term Interest Rates - Long-term interest rates in Japan and the US have reached their highest levels in over a decade, while China's rates have declined significantly [2][3] - The increase in long-term rates is seen as an inevitable consequence of the transition from QE to QT, which has led to a tightening of monetary policy [16][15] Balance Sheet Recession - The report discusses the concept of a balance sheet recession, where the private sector focuses on saving and debt repayment, leading to a lack of borrowing and spending [10][44] - In Japan, the balance sheet recession began after the asset bubble burst in 1990, while in the US and Europe, it started in 2008 [4][49] Private Sector Financial Surplus - The private sector in Japan, the US, and Europe continues to run financial surpluses, which have remained stable even after 2022 [17][24] - The latest data shows the US private-sector financial surplus at 7.31% of GDP, while the eurozone's surplus stands at 6.35% of GDP [23][24] China's Economic Situation - China's current long-term interest rates signal a need for additional fiscal stimulus, as the economy is in a balance sheet recession similar to Japan's in the 1990s [45][43] - The report suggests that the Chinese government should focus on public works projects to effectively utilize excess savings and stimulate the economy [46][59] Structural Reforms vs. Fiscal Stimulus - The report emphasizes that structural reforms alone are insufficient to address the current economic slump in China, which is primarily driven by balance sheet issues [78][79] - It argues for a shift towards fiscal stimulus measures, as seen in the US's response to the 2008 financial crisis, to effectively combat the recession [87][88]