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VCI预测:2026年德国化工品产量降幅将收窄
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-12-15 03:01
Core Insights - The German chemical and pharmaceutical industry is projected to face stagnation in production by 2026, with a forecasted decline in chemical product output by 1%, a smaller drop compared to the current year [1] - Revenue for the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors is expected to decrease by 2% due to falling product prices and production stagnation [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The situation in the German chemical industry is expected to worsen in 2025, with both production and producer prices declining by 0.5%, leading to a revenue drop of 1% [1] - Chemical product output is anticipated to decrease by 2.5%, with overall industry revenue (including domestic and international) expected to decline by 3% [1] Group 2: Industry Sentiment - A survey conducted by VCI indicates a pessimistic sentiment within the industry, with 20% of respondents planning to relocate or completely shut down production capacity [1] - 10% of companies intend to close entire production sites, over 40% expect domestic revenue to decline further, and nearly half believe profitability will continue to deteriorate [1] Group 3: Challenges Facing the Industry - Key challenges identified include a lack of competitiveness in domestic production costs, high uncertainty in regulatory policies, and lengthy approval processes [1] - Additional pressures arise from high energy and emission costs, a strong euro, excess capacity abroad, U.S. tariff barriers, and geopolitical economic instability [1] Group 4: Recommendations - VCI calls for reforms in energy climate, administrative systems, and social security within Germany and Europe, advocating for the establishment of long-term industrial policies and improvements in capital market alliances and internal markets to achieve climate neutrality and create a level playing field with the U.S. and China [1]