欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 聊起最近这大宗商品市场，真像是看了一出情节跌宕的大戏。去年12月还一片热火朝天，从黄金、白银，到铜、铝，再到煤炭、钢 铁，好像排着队往上涨。可这刚进新年没几天，剧情就来了个急转弯：白银从高点回落，多晶硅干脆跌停，镍价也大幅下跌，市场情 绪瞬间降温。 这不禁让我们想问：眼前的回调，到底是牛市里的一次小憩，还是行情彻底转向的信号？ 要弄明白这个问题，我们得跳出短期的涨 跌，从一个更完整的视角来梳理一下。 市场在交易什么？从"普涨梦想"到"冷酷现实" 0 1 一边是支撑价格的长期"叙事"： 1、货币叙事： 全球主要央行的宽松倾向，以及对美元信用体系的长期担忧，使得黄金、白银等资产被赋予"保值"的金融属性。 2、革命叙事： 全球能源转型（电动车、光伏）和人工智能发展，确实为铜、铝、锂等金属描绘了长期的、结构性的需求增长蓝图。 3、安全叙事： 地缘政治局势复杂，各国更加重视战略资源的安全储备，这为相关商品提供了额外的"风险溢价"。 市场近期的表现，其实给了我们一个清晰的答案： 全面的、所有商品一起涨的"超级牛市"，现阶段可能只是一个美好的愿望。 让我们 ...

1月4日，澳洲直达航线首班船舶"地中海杰西尼亚"轮靠泊青岛前湾集装箱码头，标志着青岛港2026年首 条外贸新航线正式启用。该轮共计装卸573标准箱，主要装运沿黄流域腹地的机电产品、化工品及纺织 品等货物。航线全程挂港顺序为青岛—上海—宁波—布里斯班—悉尼—青岛，实现了国内核心港口与澳 大利亚枢纽港的直连互通。 "目前，青岛港澳洲直达航线达到6条，新航线的开通，进一步加密青岛港RCEP航线网络布局。作为东 北亚国际航运枢纽，青岛港航线总数稳居中国北方港口首位，其枢纽吸引力与综合服务能力正在持续增 强。"张保华说。 1月5日，上海港首条全新外贸精品航线"泰国丝路快航"迎来首航，7天直达林查班，为企业提供精确到 小时的高准班率和领先的配套服务；1月7日，湖北鄂州花湖机场2026年首条新航线"鄂州—雅典"国际货 运航线正式开通，每年可提供2万吨航空运能，出港货物中90%为跨境电商货物。 1月4日，山东港口青岛港前湾集装箱码头一派繁忙景象，随着"地中海杰西尼亚"轮的靠泊，直达澳大利 亚的全新外贸航线正式开启。"这是青岛港今年开通的首条外贸新航线，直达布里斯班航程约20天，直 达悉尼航程约25天。"青岛港国际股份有限公司 ...

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 二十五载风雨兼程，国之柱石再启航 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 2025年是公司H股上市25周年，回顾公司25年上市史，其历程充分展现了公司在国家能源战略中的核心地 位与卓越的进化能力。公司作为国内最大的油气生产商之一和最大的炼油企业，其稳健的油气产量、庞大 的石油储备体系和覆盖全国的网络，共同构成了国家能源安全最可靠的防线。此外，在"双碳"目标指引 下，公司正以积极的姿态拥抱变革，从传统意义上的"化石能源巨头"转型为绿色转型的坚定实践者和引领 者。 风险提示： 油气价格大幅波动、炼化项目进度不及预期、炼化产品需求下行。 公司以"油转化"、"油转特"战略优化炼油结构，提升化工品及高端特种油品比例，荆门石化等基地实现技 术突破；同步布局氢能全产业链（制储运 ...

格隆汇1月8日｜壳牌表示，受原油价格下跌影响，其第四季度石油交易业绩明显走弱。壳牌在周四发布 的一份交易更新中称，第四季度石油交易业绩"预计将显著低于"前三个月。壳牌庞大的内部交易业务涵 盖原油、天然气、燃料、化工品、可再生电力以及碳信用，不仅交易自身产量，也交易第三方供应。尽 管这家能源巨头并不单独披露交易部门的业绩，但其表现备受市场关注，因为这往往是盈利的重要驱动 因素。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights Nanshan Aluminum (600219) as a rare growth target in the electrolytic aluminum sector, emphasizing its dividend and buyback strategies as indicators of confidence in future performance [2][9][11] - The report also covers Hanhigh Group (001221), which is positioned as a high-growth company focusing on cost reduction and brand strength to create high-end cost-performance products [10][12] Nanshan Aluminum (600219) Summary - Expected net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected at 5.0 billion, 5.46 billion, and 5.84 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 10 times [3][11] - The company is anticipated to benefit from the expansion of alumina production in Indonesia, which will enhance its performance due to cost advantages [11] - The report assigns a target P/E of 13 times for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 15% from the current price [3][11] - The company has a production capacity of 680,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, with expectations for aluminum prices to rise in 2026 due to a slowdown in global supply growth [11] Hanhigh Group (001221) Summary - Revenue projections for Hanhigh Group are set at 3.595 billion, 4.525 billion, and 5.653 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with net profits of 706 million, 942 million, and 1.237 billion yuan respectively [10][14] - The company is expected to maintain a lower valuation compared to its peers, with P/E ratios of 33, 24, and 19 times for the respective years [10][14] - Hanhigh Group's growth is driven by cost reduction strategies and a focus on high-quality, high-performance products, which have gained market recognition [12][14] Investment Recommendations - Both Nanshan Aluminum and Hanhigh Group are given "Outperform" ratings, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance relative to the market [3][10] - The report suggests that Nanshan Aluminum's unique position in the electrolytic aluminum market and Hanhigh Group's strong growth trajectory make them attractive investment opportunities [2][10]

同样从RCEP自贸协定中获益的，还有来自"世界小商品之都"义乌的采购商群体。义乌的服饰、玩具等 小商品出口到RCEP成员国大多可享受关税优惠，采购商们将可获得的关税减让空间作为外贸谈判的筹 码，帮助他们更好地提升产品的价格竞争力，赢得更多出口订单。 制度创新进一步拓宽市场空间。泰尔茂医疗产品（杭州）有限公司关务经理朱芳菲介绍："2025年我们 已经为170多批货物出具了原产地声明，自主出具声明的方式能更灵活安排生产和出口，同时提高公司 国际市场信用。"RCEP引入的"背对背"原产地证明制度允许货物在成员国分拆转运后仍享优惠。嘉兴市 开通供应链管理有限公司业务经理王维说："去年申领300多份'背对背'证书，将越南原产背包销往6个 成员国，预计2026年相关出口额达3000万元。"（记者 拜喆喆 通讯员 李晓斌 杨敏） 2026年1月1日，《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）迎来生效实施第五年。四年来，这一全球最 大自贸协定持续释放政策红利，为浙江企业融入区域产业链、拓展国际贸易注入新动能。据统计，截至 2025年11月，杭州海关累计签发RCEP原产地证书29.5万份，享惠出口货物总额806.9亿元。 随着R ...

12月31日，荣盛石化（维权）盘中下跌2.00%，截至09:54，报11.74元/股，成交2.01亿元，换手率 0.18%，总市值1172.76亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出2460.17万元，特大单买入1619.74万元，占比8.07%，卖出3934.41万 元，占比19.59%；大单买入4529.34万元，占比22.56%，卖出4674.83万元，占比23.28%。 荣盛石化今年以来股价涨31.10%，近5个交易日涨11.17%，近20日涨20.04%，近60日涨21.66%。 荣盛石化所属申万行业为：石油石化-炼化及贸易-炼油化工。所属概念板块包括：油气改革、中特估、 MSCI中国、融资融券、光伏玻璃等。 截至9月30日，荣盛石化股东户数7.37万，较上期减少14.14%；人均流通股126986股，较上期增加 14.80%。2025年1月-9月，荣盛石化实现营业收入2278.15亿元，同比减少7.09%；归母净利润8.88亿元， 同比增长1.34%。 分红方面，荣盛石化A股上市后累计派现94.00亿元。近三年，累计派现33.91亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，荣盛石化十大流通股东中 ...

墨西哥这两年在贸易上动作频频，本来是北美供应链的中坚，受美国影响深。2023年夏天，墨西哥政府 突然对来自中国等亚洲国家的钢铁、铝和化工品加征关税，最高25%。这政策一落地，当地工厂成本就 上去了，因为不少原料靠进口。 彼得·纳瓦罗在美国政坛上总喜欢搅动经贸话题，尤其对华态度一贯强硬。他从民主党背景转投特朗普 阵营后，就成了贸易保护主义的代言人。早年间写书抨击中国经济模式，数据常常被指责有偏差。 企业主们私下抱怨，供应链被打乱，生产节奏跟不上。到2025年9月，墨西哥又推更大方案，覆盖上千 项产品，税率拉到50%。国会12月10日批准时，虽然有些调整，但核心是针对非自贸伙伴国，明显冲着 中国去。 2023年因藐视国会调查坐牢四个月，出狱后没多久，又被特朗普拉回白宫，当上贸易和制造业高级顾 问。纳瓦罗的逻辑简单粗暴，强调关税能重振美国制造业，减少逆差，却忽略全球供应链的复杂性。他 的回归，让人觉得特朗普第二任期的贸易政策会更趋对抗。 中方不光发声明，还在行动上稳扎稳打。商务部启动调查，与墨西哥企业沟通损失评估。国内产业则抓 紧优化，从新能源到电子，订单没受大影响。使馆的回击被国际认可，因为它戳中了要害：单边关税 ...

Industrial Sector - Raw material production continues seasonal adjustments, with steel and building materials output declining this week[1] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, while asphalt production increased[1] - Polyester and weaving industry operating rates weakened seasonally, while semi-steel tire production increased[1] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 25.2% year-on-year as of December 26, with a slight improvement of 3.0 percentage points compared to last month[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.62% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing[1] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue remains high, with a year-on-year increase of 108.5% as of December 25[1] - Retail sales of automobiles decreased by 19% year-on-year from December 1-21, compared to a 7% decline in November[1] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 34.4% year-on-year as of December 19, a decline of 11.3 percentage points from the end of November[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.1% year-on-year as of December 21, with container throughput up by 9.1%[1] - Export container freight rates rose by 2.0% this week, marking three consecutive weeks of increase[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 2.8%, while the Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Index increased by 5.0% this week[1] - Agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 0.4% week-on-week, showing a stronger performance compared to the same period last year[1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upstream prices are showing a differentiated trend, with nickel prices rising, egg prices falling, and oil and liquefied natural gas prices dropping. The mid - stream has a low - season for chemical product production, increased coal consumption in power plants, and low asphalt construction rates. The downstream real - estate market is warming up, while domestic flight frequencies are decreasing [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Nickel prices have rebounded significantly, with the price on December 25th at 127,383.3 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 5.79% [2][37]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices declined on the previous day, with the spot price on December 25th at 6.3 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 5.02% [2][37]. - **Energy**: Crude oil prices have corrected, and liquefied natural gas prices have continued to decline. The spot price of WTI crude oil on December 25th was 58.4 dollars/barrel, a year - on - year increase of 4.55%, and the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3,356 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 7.34% [2][37]. Mid - stream - **Chemical Industry**: It is the off - season for chemical product production [3]. - **Energy**: Coal consumption in power plants has increased [3]. - **Infrastructure**: Asphalt construction rates are at a low level [3]. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have continued to pick up [3]. - **Services**: The number of domestic flights has decreased [3]. Industry Events - **Production Industry**: On the afternoon of December 25th, four leading silicon wafer companies jointly raised their prices significantly, with an average increase of 12%. The average price increase of various silicon wafer models this week is between 3.3% - 9.8%, mainly due to the large increase in upstream silicon material prices. The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration is soliciting opinions on promoting the supply - demand balance of the e - cigarette market [1]. - **Service Industry**: The People's Bank of China and seven other departments have issued a document to support the construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor, including exploring digital financial international cooperation and promoting cross - border payments using central bank digital currencies [1].