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今日焦:FY25表現穩健,FY26全年指引趋于谨慎-20250731
citic securities· 2025-07-31 05:21
Group 1: Company Performance - New Oriental Education reported FY25 revenue of $4.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%[1] - Net profit for FY25 was $372 million, up 20% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit reaching $432 million, exceeding expectations by 5%[1] - Adjusted net profit margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 8.8%, primarily due to economies of scale[1] Group 2: Business Segments - Q4 FY25 education service revenue grew by 19% year-on-year to $1.1 billion, surpassing the previous guidance of 10%-13%[2] - The growth rate of education services has slowed compared to earlier quarters, with Q1, Q2, and Q3 FY25 showing increases of 33.5%, 31.3%, and 21.2% respectively[2] - New business in education grew by 32.5% year-on-year, while overseas exam training and study abroad consulting increased by 14.6% and 8.2% respectively[2] Group 3: Future Guidance - Management expects Q1 FY26 total net revenue to be between $1.46 billion and $1.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2% to 5%[2] - FY26 total net revenue is projected to be between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 5% to 10%, slightly below market expectations of 8%-12%[2] - A new three-year shareholder return plan was announced, aiming to return at least 50% of profits to shareholders through dividends or share buybacks[2] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Concerns arise regarding the growth outlook due to the conservative FY26 guidance, which may affect investor sentiment[4] - The departure of key anchor host Dong Yuhui has negatively impacted the revenue of the Oriental Selection segment, which saw a 39% year-on-year decline in FY25[4] - The current expected P/E ratio for FY26 is 13.52 times[4]