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能源化工资产运营新篇章:如何利用好规范性分析
科尔尼管理咨询· 2025-10-21 09:40
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the need for process manufacturing companies, such as those in energy and chemicals, to make long-term decisions amidst a volatile market environment, highlighting the importance of appropriate technologies to achieve "right the first time" outcomes [1][4] Market Environment - The current geopolitical instability underscores the necessity for local production capacity and flexible supply chains, with significant structural supply-demand shifts occurring [1] - By 2030, the chemical product markets in China and India are expected to grow annually by 7%, with China likely becoming the largest chemical market globally [1] - The Middle East is also projected to see significant growth, with an annual increase of 5% by the end of the decade [1] Challenges Faced - Global chemical companies are facing heightened challenges due to diverging factor costs and environmental regulations, particularly in Europe, where the market has significantly declined in 2023 [2] - European chemical companies are contending with some of the highest energy and raw material costs globally, leading to considerations of shutting down outdated production lines or reducing capacity [2] Key Design Elements for Process Manufacturing - Five critical design elements are identified for process manufacturing companies to focus on: 1. **Capital Roadmap**: High-interest environments typically slow capital expenditures, while declining interest rates can accelerate investment plans [4] 2. **Cross-Network Strategic Planning**: Companies may need to temporarily or permanently close factories or production lines to enhance profitability and cash flow [4] 3. **Manufacturing Plant Allocation**: Precise cost/benefit calculations are necessary when changing production locations, considering factors like workforce availability and capital expenditures [4] 4. **Personnel Planning**: Understanding personnel needs and costs is crucial when operational scopes and manufacturing capacities change significantly [4] 5. **Value Chain Adjustment**: Companies may pursue backward integration to reduce operational costs or streamline compliance processes [4] Prerequisites for Network Redesign - Successful network redesign requires rigorous data acquisition, wise selection of analytical tools, cross-functional collaboration, and a clear decision-making process [7][8] - Stakeholders from various departments should be involved in the redesign process to provide diverse perspectives and insights [7] - Flexibility and agility are essential for maximizing the value of scenario planning, necessitating repeatable models and effective processes to translate insights into actionable roadmaps [8] Conclusion - Despite the challenging environment, if approached correctly, network redesign can enhance operational efficiency and strengthen competitive positioning [10]