证券研究报告 | 2025年7月13日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ➢ 根据马拉松资本《资本回报：穿越资本周期的投资》的观点，资本周期方法的关键是要理解一个行业内配置的资本数 量的变动将如何影响未来回报，换句话说，也就是观察供给方面的变化如何影响公司的竞争态势。传统价值/成长的二 分法存在问题。表现超过市场预期的公司有理由获得更高的估值。相比于分析供给，大部分投资者在分析需求上花更 多时间，但预测需求比预测供给更难。供给变动驱动行业盈利性，股价常常未能预见供给侧的变动。 ➢ 在企业生命周期的不同状态下，行业集中度呈现倒U型分布，先经历了供给侧的优化和高度竞争后的出清，随后集中度 走高形成垄断寡头格局，盈利也经历了类似的对称性分布。分红方面，随着企业从复苏期-增长期-竞争期-成熟期的演 化，股息率中枢不断走高。 ➢ 按照相对回报和绝对回报在历史 8 个阶段回报定位，根据一季报数据筛选得出的优势阶段行业和重点观察行业，按照 开支-盈利水平按照三季报的指引来定位，则可以发现行业集中度呈现 U 型分布。当前处于推荐阶段的二级行业有养殖 业、动物保健Ⅱ、元件、消费电子、通信服务、广告营销、电视广播Ⅱ、 ...

资料显示，爱旭股份成立于1996年8月，主营业务是研发、生产、销售太阳能电池和组件。 爱旭股份：预计上半年预亏1.7亿–2.8亿元 7月10日晚，爱旭股份（600732）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计上半年实现归属于母公司所有 者的净亏损1.7亿元至2.8亿元，预计实现扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损4.1亿元至5.2亿元。 所属行业：电力设备–光伏设备–光伏电池组件 长城军工：预计上半年预亏2500万–2950万元 7月10日晚，长城军工（601606）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计上半年实现归属于上市公司股 东的净亏损2500万元至2950万元，预计实现扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损3500万元至4100万元。 资料显示，长城军工成立于2000年11月，主营业务是军品业务与民品业务。 所属行业：国防军工–地面兵装Ⅱ–地面兵装Ⅲ 长源东谷：预计上半年净利润预增62.65%-88.88% 7月10日晚，长源东谷（603950）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计上半年实现归属于母公司所有 者的净利润1.55亿元至1.8亿元，同比增长62.65%-88.88%；预计实现扣除非经常性损益后的净利润1.5亿 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed the annual high set on March 18, 2025, and is approaching the high from October 8, 2024, indicating a significant market movement [1] - There is a noticeable divergence among various sectors, with banking, agriculture, personal care, military, chemical, transportation, and petrochemical industries showing a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [1] - Conversely, sectors such as steel, electronics, home appliances, telecommunications, computers, and electrical equipment have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [1] Group 2 - In the secondary industry analysis, financial (banking, insurance, diversified finance), military (naval equipment, ground weaponry), agriculture (animal health, agricultural products, planting, feed), precious metals, personal care products, and chemical pharmaceuticals show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [4] - Sectors like home appliances, electrical equipment, TMT (television broadcasting, communication services, consumer electronics, semiconductors, optical electronics), general steel, and machinery (engineering machinery, automation equipment) have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [4] - Comparing to the October 8, 2024 closing prices, banking, motorcycles, military (ground weaponry, aerospace equipment), chemicals (plastics, non-metallic materials), and new consumption (entertainment products, personal care products, retail, accessories) show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their previous levels [4]

大家总说中国的老年人远离了电视（开机率不足30%），是因为操作太复杂。没想到守着简单操作的欧美老年人，也开始抛弃电视了！ 美国权威收视率统计机构尼尔森的最新报告显示，原来在大洋彼岸，爷爷奶奶们也爱上了刷YouTube。 当"银发族"成为流媒体增长最快的用户群体，这股浪潮会如何影响大洋两岸的客厅生态？ 他们尤其热衷于Tubi、Roku和Pluto等免费流媒体服务。今年5月，这三个平台占据了所有年龄段总电视时长的5.7%，超过了Disney+和Hulu两大付费平台 的总和。 尼尔森产品策略高级副总裁布莱恩·富勒（Brian Fuhrer）指出："这些免费平台有广告，但对于这个年龄段的观众来说，这并不会让他们感到特别突兀，因 为他们已经习惯了在（传统）电视上看广告。" 老年人"拔线"的被动与主动 "银发浪潮"席卷流媒体 流媒体的未来已至，并且正成为现实。根据尼尔森周二发布的报告，2025年5月，美国人通过流媒体服务观看电视的时长，首次在一个完整的月份里，超 过了有线电视和广播电视的总和。 这一历史性转折的背后，一个群体的"倒戈"起到了决定性作用。毫不意外，年轻观众是第一批投向流媒体怀抱的人。但最终帮助流媒体"锁定胜 ...

截至2025年6月13日收盘，歌华有线（600037）报收于7.69元，较上周的8.45元下跌8.99%。本周，歌华 有线6月9日盘中最高价报8.46元。6月13日盘中最低价报7.67元。歌华有线当前最新总市值107.03亿元， 在电视广播板块市值排名6/14，在两市A股市值排名1469/5150。 本周关注点 公司公告汇总: 歌华有线2024年年度权益分派实施，A股每股现金红利0.027元（含税） 公司公告汇总 歌华有线2024年年度权益分派实施公告指出，A股每股现金红利为0.027元（含税），股权登记日为2025 年6月19日，除权（息）日和现金红利发放日均为2025年6月20日。本次利润分配方案经公司2025年5月 21日的2024年年度股东大会审议通过，以方案实施前的公司总股本1,391,777,884股为基数，每股派发现 金红利0.027元（含税），共计派发现金红利37,578,002.87元。无限售条件流通股的红利将委托中国结算 上海分公司通过其资金清算系统向股权登记日上海证券交易所收市后登记在册并在上海证券交易所各会 员办理了指定交易的股东派发。对于无限售条件流通股自然人股东及证券投资基金的现金 ...

公司报告 | 公司点评 电广传媒（000917） 证券研究报告 25Q1 受投资项目影响短期承压。2025 年第一季度，公司实现营业收入 9.22 亿元，同比增长 2.67%； 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 0.03 亿元，同比减少 89.1%。主要系 IPO 数量减少，基金投资项目 退出减少，投资业务板块利润下降。2024 年，公司营业收入 39.02 亿元，同比减少 0.47%；归属于上市 公司股东的净利润 0.96 亿元，实现连续四年盈利。 文旅业务践行"文化+科技+旅游"，"新文旅"战略纵深推进。2024 年，文旅业务实现收入 4.11 亿元， 占总营业收入比重 10.52%。芒果文旅各景区累计接待游客 620 多万人次，同比增长 51%。存量项目方 面，长沙世界之窗主题乐园 2024 年实现营业收入 1.78 亿元，净利润 0.25 亿元；圣爵菲斯大酒店 20 24 年实现收入 1.41 亿元，净利润 0.0 3 亿元，连续九年实现盈利。新项目方面，衡阳苏州湾老街暨青春东 洲岛项目于 2024 年 9 月 20 日试运营，累计接待游客量超 200 万人次；湘潭万楼芒果青年码头项目于五 一期间吸引 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.57% at 23,157.97 points on June 2 [1] - Energy and Energy Global (01142.HK) shares rose by 37.04% to HKD 1.48, with a trading volume of 5.5465 million shares and a turnover of HKD 7.4559 million, showing a volatility of 42.59% [1] - Over the past month, Energy and Energy Global has seen a cumulative increase of 18.68%, and a year-to-date increase of 71.43%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's increase of 16.1% [1] Group 2 - For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2024, Energy and Energy Global reported total revenue of HKD 217 million, a year-on-year decrease of 31.92% [1] - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of -HKD 84.6537 million, a year-on-year decrease of 328.36% [1] - The gross profit margin stood at 1.46%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 193.08% [1] Group 3 - Currently, there are no institutional investment ratings for Energy and Energy Global [1] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the general metals and minerals industry (TTM) is -2.96, with a median of -0.1 [1] - Energy and Energy Global has a P/E ratio of -5.58, ranking 46th in the industry, while other companies in the green economy sector have P/E ratios ranging from 1.8 to 2.97 [1] Group 4 - Energy and Energy Global's main business activities include coal mining and trading in Russia, digital television broadcasting in China, and vertical agriculture in China [2]

Group 1 - Guangyang Co., Ltd. has decided to terminate the plan to acquire 100% equity of Ningbo Yinqiu Technology Co., Ltd. and will resume trading on May 30, 2025 [1] - Longjing Environmental Protection plans to invest 75.075 million yuan to acquire 20% equity in Zhejiang Jitai Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. [1] - Fengmao Co., Ltd. intends to invest up to 1.5 billion yuan to establish an automotive parts production base in Jiaxing [2] Group 2 - JinkoSolar has received a government subsidy of 98 million yuan [2] - Huayuan Real Estate has completed the registration of its name change to "Huayuan Holdings," effective June 5, 2025 [2][3] - Haisen Pharmaceutical's general manager plans to reduce his stake by 0.97% of the company's total shares [4][5] Group 3 - Shandong Highway plans to issue bonds not exceeding 8 billion yuan [6] - Mengguli's shareholders plan to collectively reduce their stake by up to 5% [7] - Yihua Tong has terminated its fuel cell comprehensive testing evaluation center project, originally planned for 220 million yuan [9] Group 4 - Ouma Software is the first candidate for the banking industry association's professional qualification examination service project, with a bid of 39.90 yuan per subject [11] - ST Dehao's subsidiary plans to invest 50 million yuan in an automotive LED packaging project [11] - Shuanglin Co., Ltd. plans to raise no more than 1.5 billion yuan through a private placement [12] Group 5 - Huaci Co., Ltd. plans to raise no more than 700 million yuan for the ASEAN Ceramic Valley project [13] - Aisi Kai intends to sign a procurement framework agreement for ceramic 3D printers, not exceeding 7.5 million yuan [14] - Baolingbao's major shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 3% [15] Group 6 - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's subsidiary has received conditional approval for the launch of a class 1 innovative drug for lung cancer treatment [16][17] - *ST Jinguang is facing delisting due to continuous false reporting in annual reports from 2020 to 2023 [18] - Guangxi Broadcasting plans to swap 100% equity of Guangdian Technology for 51% equity of Jiaoke Group, with both assets valued at 1.411 billion yuan [19][20] Group 7 - ST Ruike's stock will be delisted from risk warnings and will change its name to "Guorui Technology" effective June 3, 2025 [21][22]

华特气体：3股东拟合计减持不超过2%公司股份 5月15日，华特气体（688268）发布公告称，公司股东厦门华弘多福投资合伙企业（有限合伙）、厦门 华和多福投资合伙企业（有限合伙）、厦门华进多福投资合伙企业（有限合伙）计划于2025年6月9日至 2025年9月8日期间，通过大宗交易方式减持公司股份，合计减持不超过240万股，占公司总股本的比例 不超过2%。 资料显示，华特气体成立于1999年2月，主营业务是特种气体的研发、生产及销售为核心，辅以普通工 业气体和相关气体设备与工程业务，提供气体一站式综合应用解决方案。 所属行业：电子–电子化学品Ⅱ–电子化学品Ⅲ 华统股份：4月份生猪销售收入3.75亿元 5月15日，华统股份（002840）发布公告称，公司4月生猪销售数量20.82万头（其中仔猪销售0头），环 比变动-8.74%，同比变动3.36%；销售收入3.75亿元，环比变动-4.28%，同比变动2.92%。4月份，商品 猪销售均价14.8元/公斤，与3月份持平。 资料显示，华统股份成立于2001年8月，主营业务是饲料加工、畜禽养殖、畜禽屠宰加工、肉制品深加 工。 所属行业：社会服务–体育Ⅱ–体育Ⅲ 宏景科技： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its main business, with its core audiovisual platform continuing to strengthen [1]. - The IPTV basic business has seen robust growth, with effective user numbers steadily increasing [2]. - The content copyright business is integrating industry resources to build a content value closed loop, despite a slight decline in revenue [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 16.7 billion, 18.0 billion, and 19.5 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 7.0 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.5 billion yuan [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.579 billion yuan (YoY +3.63%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 658 million yuan (YoY -7.04%) [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 407 million yuan (YoY +1.48%) and a net profit of 161 million yuan (YoY +8.69%) [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 50.20% and 48.94%, respectively [1]. - The company’s IPTV basic business revenue for 2024 was 834 million yuan (YoY +3.13%), with effective users reaching 20.57 million (YoY +5.43%) [2]. - The internet audiovisual business revenue for 2024 was 633 million yuan (YoY +4.49%) [2]. - The content copyright business revenue decreased by 5.67% to 84 million yuan in 2024 [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 1.670 billion, 1.801 billion, and 1.950 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 701 million, 771 million, and 851 million yuan respectively [5]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 13, 12, and 11 times for the years 2025 to 2027 [3].