电踏车电机
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八方股份(603489):业绩短期承压 中长期电踏车需求无虞
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 02:38
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with a positive outlook for long-term e-bike demand in Europe and the U.S. [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.357 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.66% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 64 million, down 50.06% year-on-year - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 41 million, a decline of 61.42% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 301 million, an increase of 1.69% year-on-year - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 22 million, up 32.11% year-on-year - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 17 million, a rise of 12.24% year-on-year [1] E-bike Motor Business - The e-bike motor business faced short-term pressure, with revenue of 592 million in 2024, down 20.38% year-on-year - The gross margin for this segment was 41.3%, a decrease of 4.94 percentage points year-on-year - High inventory levels and unstable political and economic conditions contributed to a slowdown in demand [1] Market Outlook - Long-term demand for e-bikes remains strong, with expectations of inventory issues resolving in Europe by 2025 - The European market is projected to maintain an upward trend until 2030 - The U.S. market has significant growth potential due to its low current penetration rate - In Japan, despite recent declines in production and sales, the e-bike penetration rate remains strong, with a widening production-sales gap [2] Cost Management - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a significant reduction in expense ratios, contributing to profit growth despite a decline in gross margin - The overall gross margin was 23.89%, down 4.66 percentage points year-on-year - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 3.27%, 8.04%, and 4.39%, respectively, all showing year-on-year decreases [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak overseas demand, the company has lowered its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a forecast for 2027 - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 110 million, 142 million, and 179 million, reflecting reductions of 48% and 42% for 2025 and 2026, respectively - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 57, 44, and 35 for 2025-2027 [3]