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森鹰窗业(301227):窗行业经历阵痛期,短期收入及利润承压
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][11]. Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on short-term revenue and profits due to a dual suppression effect from the real estate and consumer demand, leading to weakened industry demand and increased market competition [3][11]. - The report adjusts the profit expectations for 2025-2026 and introduces a new profit expectation for 2027, forecasting EPS of 0.04, 0.44, and 0.56 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [11]. - The target price is set at 23.37 yuan, reflecting a 1.3x PB for 2025, indicating that the company's profitability still has room for recovery [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline significantly in 2024 to 567 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.7%, with a return to profitability expected in 2025 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -42 million yuan in 2024, down from a profit of 146 million yuan in 2023, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [5][11]. - The company's gross profit margin is expected to drop to 20.27% in 2024, a decrease of 15.92 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased competition and reduced demand [11]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 1,744 million yuan, with a total share capital of 95 million shares [6]. - The stock price has fluctuated between 14.34 and 21.70 yuan over the past 52 weeks [6]. Profitability and Efficiency Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be -2.5% in 2024, indicating a challenging year for profitability [12]. - The sales gross margin is projected to recover to 34.7% by 2027, reflecting potential improvements in operational efficiency [12].