Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation will officially take effect on August 1, 2025, allowing institutions to apply for licenses, with nearly 50 companies, including major Chinese tech firms Ant Group and JD.com, eager to participate [2] Group 1: Licensing and Market Entry - The initial plan is to issue the first batch of licenses by the end of October 2025, allowing licensed institutions to prepare for stablecoin issuance before the Christmas season [2] - The approval process for stablecoin licenses will follow a market-oriented principle, but the entry threshold is expected to be high, with estimates suggesting that the first batch of licensed institutions will not exceed 10 [2][3] - The application process will require institutions to demonstrate comprehensive capabilities in finance, IT, and marketing, along with maintaining high operational costs, which may reach several million Hong Kong dollars annually [3][4] Group 2: Potential Issuers and Challenges - Potential issuers include major players like Ant International and Ant Digital Technology, as well as various financial institutions and tech companies [3][4] - Two main challenges during the application phase include demonstrating a genuine business need and addressing anti-money laundering concerns, particularly in cross-border scenarios [5] - The regulatory focus will prioritize applications from companies with mature technology and strong capabilities, making it difficult for smaller players to succeed in the competitive cross-border payment space [5] Group 3: Impact on the Ecosystem - Local brokers are expected to be significant beneficiaries, with many already upgrading their licenses, leading to increased trading commissions and potential new revenue streams from virtual asset custody services [8][10] - Banks may also play a dual role as third-party custodians and potential stablecoin issuers, leveraging their existing customer base to offer stablecoin services [11][12] - The overall market for stablecoins in Hong Kong is still considered niche, with the local currency not being a major international currency, limiting the growth potential without tapping into the mainland Chinese market [13][14] Group 4: Future Prospects - The emergence of a leading stablecoin company in Hong Kong, akin to Circle in the U.S., is possible but will be limited in number due to the lengthy operational timeline required to achieve profitability and meet listing standards [18][19] - The focus for Hong Kong in 2026 will be on large-scale promotion and implementation of stablecoins to enhance settlement efficiency, potentially involving agreements with friendly nations to expand application scenarios [20]