货币基金市场

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【申万宏源策略】政策不确定性下降,7月全球资金回流美股美债——全球资产配置资金流向月报(2025年7月)
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 11:27
Global Market Overview - In July, global asset prices increased due to the passing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which reduced policy uncertainty and enhanced global risk appetite, leading to significant gains in equity markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [1][8] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, passed on July 3, includes various spending adjustments across defense, border security, energy policy, and social welfare, with plans to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion over the next decade [2][17] - Major stock indices in China, Hong Kong, the US, and Europe recorded positive returns, with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.5%, the Hang Seng index by 2.9%, the S&P 500 by 2.2%, the Nikkei by 1.4%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 by 0.9% [2][17] Asset Flow Analysis - In July, there was a significant slowdown in inflows to money market funds, with approximately $63 billion flowing in compared to $156 billion in June, while government bonds saw accelerated inflows [3][26] - Developed market equities attracted $43 billion in July, up from $39 billion in June, while emerging market equities saw a decrease in inflows, dropping to $5 billion from $8 billion [3][26] - In the US equity market, there was a notable outflow from technology and healthcare sectors, while financials, industrials, and utilities saw inflows [33][37] China Market Insights - In July, China emerged as a major recipient of inflows in the emerging market fixed income sector, with $83.78 billion flowing into Chinese fixed income funds, accounting for 54.81% of total inflows [4][44] - However, the Chinese equity market experienced a cumulative outflow of $15.70 billion in July, contrasting with the inflow of $3.13 billion in passive equity funds, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4][28] - The passive equity funds in emerging markets saw a reversal, with inflows of $113.26 billion in July compared to outflows of $139.79 billion in June [4][43] Global Fund Allocation Trends - As of June, the allocation of global funds to the US increased to 61.0%, while the allocation to China remained stable at 25.1%, indicating potential for further growth [5][28] - The allocation of emerging market funds to China decreased slightly to 42.7%, nearing historical averages, while Taiwan and South Korea saw increased allocations [5][28] - The overall trend indicates a reallocation of global funds towards US equities, with a corresponding decrease in allocations to European and Japanese markets [5][42]