大摩：因果与外汇：委内瑞拉、石油与货币 20260110 摘要 美国与拉美国家关系复杂，对不同国家采取差异化策略。与巴西、乌拉 圭等国关系紧密，预计将在贸易、资金和安全方面获得支持。而与墨西 哥、哥伦比亚关系相对疏远，可能面临更强硬的贸易谈判，墨西哥或需 加强对中国投资的贸易壁垒。 委内瑞拉石油行业整顿是美国的重要计划，短期内有望快速恢复部分石 油产量。中期乐观情景下，日产量可能回升至 200 万桶，但需关注政府 稳定性、制裁措施和财政条款等关键因素。委内瑞拉重质原油的生产将 对全球石油市场产生影响。 加拿大作为重质高硫原油的主要出口国，受委内瑞拉局势影响较大。如 果美国因新增石油进口来源而在 USMCA 谈判中对加拿大采取强硬态度， 可能导致加元贬值。但美国炼油厂减少对加拿大原油依赖的程度有限， 加元贬值需关注委内瑞拉石油出口快速增长及美国利用石油议题施压。 加元走弱主要由于投资者对委内瑞拉石油增产的担忧，以及对西加拿大 精选原油（WCS）与 WTI 价差和全球油价中期影响的关注。实际影响 取决于委内瑞拉石油出口的恢复速度和美国对加拿大的政策。 Q&A 美国在拉美地区的积极政策对该地区市场有何影响？ 美国政 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibit strong risk appetite, with major stock indices reaching historical highs as investors shift from defensive assets to cyclical sectors and high-risk assets [1][4] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.6%, while the Russell 2000 index surged by 4.6%, indicating broad market participation [1] - The A-share market in Asia also saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4100-point mark and achieving a remarkable "16 consecutive days of gains" [2][10] Group 2: Commodity Market Performance - The commodity market performed well, driven by geopolitical factors and inflation expectations, with oil prices experiencing the largest single-day increase since October of the previous year [4][13] - Silver prices rose by 10% over the week, while gold approached historical highs, reflecting strong demand despite a strengthening dollar [4][14] Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - The credit market joined the bullish trend, with junk bond spreads narrowing by 10 basis points, encouraging new corporate borrowing [8] - The U.S. administration's policies, including support for the real estate market, contributed to the upward momentum in the markets [8][9] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Despite a slight miss in U.S. non-farm payroll data, service sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in over a year, and productivity increased significantly [10][12] - The anticipated liquidity influx of $600 billion in the first quarter is expected to return basic liquidity to comfortable levels [6] Group 5: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Investor sentiment is high, with significant capital flowing into high-beta assets, as evidenced by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF attracting $10 billion in just a few days [6] - However, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of this optimism, with some analysts questioning the market's speculative nature and potential risks associated with high valuations [19]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the spring market has a continuous favorable time window for bullish strategies, with a significant increase in risk appetite. There are no major downside risks, only short-term adjustments after market performance is fully realized. Overall profit-making effects may continue to expand to higher levels, indicating that the short-term market performance is not yet fully realized [4][5]. - The report reaffirms the logic of the spring market, highlighting that there is ample liquidity and favorable conditions for bullish strategies. Key factors include ETF inflows, insurance sector performance, and expectations of foreign capital inflows, which have accelerated the inflow of retail investors and increased trading activity [4][5]. - The report identifies specific time windows in the spring that are conducive to market performance, including potential rebounds before the Lunar New Year in February, policy catalysts from the National People's Congress in March, and the anticipated visit of Trump to China in April, which could stabilize market expectations [4][5]. Group 2 - The report discusses the marginal trading funds and dominant market styles, noting that the net inflow of the CSI A500 ETF has plateaued. The expected incremental inflows are primarily from the insurance sector and foreign capital, while retail investor inflows and increased trading activity are contributing to faster growth in marginal trading funds [8]. - The report maintains that industry themes, such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and nuclear fusion, remain the strongest directions for profit-making effects. The report also highlights the high elasticity of venture capital and pre-IPO technology leaders, which are benefiting from mid-term bull market expectations [12]. - The report predicts that the second quarter of 2026 will still exhibit a volatile pattern, with technology and advanced manufacturing sectors likely to lead the market ahead of a full bull market in the second half of 2026 [12].

Market Overview - The global financial markets have shown strong risk appetite in the first trading week of 2026, with major stock indices reaching historical highs as investors shift from defensive assets to cyclical sectors and high-risk assets [1][5] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.6%, while the Russell 2000 index surged by 4.6%, indicating an expanding market breadth [1] Asian Market Performance - The A-share market in China witnessed significant activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4100-point mark and achieving a remarkable "16 consecutive days of gains," with daily trading volume exceeding 3.15 trillion yuan [2][12] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market performed strongly, driven by geopolitical factors and inflation expectations, with oil prices experiencing the largest single-day increase since October of the previous year, silver rising by 10% over the week, and gold nearing historical highs [3][14][15] Credit Market Activity - The credit market also joined the upward trend, with junk bond spreads narrowing by 10 basis points, stimulating new corporate borrowing [8] - The U.S. government's supportive policies, including new measures for the real estate market, have contributed to the market's rally [8] Investor Sentiment and Trends - Investors are increasingly favoring high-beta assets, with significant capital flowing into riskier segments of the market, as evidenced by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF attracting $10 billion in just a few days [6] - Speculative assets have also seen active trading, with a "Meme stock" ETF soaring nearly 15% and heavily shorted stocks rising by 7%, marking the best start since at least 2008 [6] Economic Indicators - Despite a slight miss in U.S. non-farm payroll data, with only 50,000 jobs added in December against an expectation of 70,000, positive indicators such as service sector expansion and productivity gains have helped maintain investor optimism [11] - The U.S. monetary policy and strong fiscal support are expected to provide a favorable backdrop for economic activity in the second quarter of 2026 and beyond [11] Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical risks have significantly impacted commodity prices, with oil and precious metals experiencing notable increases [14][16] - The volatility in stocks and bonds has decreased amid rising geopolitical tensions [17] Market Caution - Despite the bullish market sentiment, some analysts express caution, suggesting that the current speculative fervor may be unwarranted after a nearly doubling of the S&P 500 index over three years [19] - The upcoming decision on the successor to the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is also a focal point for market participants [19]

橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2026-01-09 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 本周天然橡胶盘面震荡偏强。从宏观角度看，市场流动性与风险偏好提升对盘面价格有所提振。从天然橡胶基本面看，国 内产区逐步进入停割期，海外市场存补库行为，带动泰国原料价格持续上涨，橡胶成本支撑趋强。但天然橡胶整体仍延续 累库态势。从合成橡胶基本面看，原料丁二烯近期外盘价格陆续跟涨，市场预期进口量逐步减少，同时国内下游需求良好， 丁二烯处于去库存状态，价格快速上行，对顺丁橡胶成本端支撑明显。从下游轮胎需求情况看，受元旦假期影响，轮胎企 业整体产能利用率有所下滑，全钢胎库存去化节奏略好于半钢胎，节后随着轮胎企业陆续复产，产能利用率将有所回升， 但后续仍面临春节假期，产能利用率又将季节性回落。整体看，市场流动性溢价和橡胶原料端对盘面驱动较为明显，但下 游轮胎需求以及成品库存对价格上行的斜率产生拖累，目前价格上行到区间震荡的上沿，技术层面有所承压，但宏观情绪 未消退之际，盘面震荡重心仍有望上移。 基本面概况 市场焦点 报告摘要 PART ...

截至收盘，恒生指数下跌1.2%，恒生中国企业指数下跌1.1%，中证港股通中国100指数下跌0.9%。 兴业证券认为，中期看，2026年港股盈利、流动性有望协同驱动行情，风险偏好的变化有望呈现"先扬 后抑、再扬再抑"，其中一季度风险偏好有望"先扬"。 | 恒生ETF易方达 | | | 513210 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跟踪恒生指数 | | | | | 该指数由恒生综合大中型股指 | | | | | 数成份股中市值大、成交活跃、 | 令日 | 该指数 | 该指数自2002年 | | 行业代表性强的股票组成,指 | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市公率 | 以来估值分位 | | 数行业覆盖较为广泛,金融、 可选消费、信息技术行业合计 | -1.2% | 12. 1倍 | 56. 0% | | 占比近80% | | | | | 恒生中国企业ETF易方达 | | | 510900 | | 跟踪恒生中国企业指数 | | | | | 该指数由在港上市中国内地企 | | | 该指数自2002年 | | 业中50只市值大、成交活跃的 | 今日 | 该指数 | | | 股票组成,指数行业覆盖较为 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Meme assets indicates a return of risk appetite in the market, but it also suggests that true consensus has not yet been established, as participants are merely seeking a place to express their emotions [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise of Meme assets is characterized by synchronized increases in market capitalization, trading volume, and open interest in derivatives, indicating that participants are not just buying but also betting on a longer-term continuation [3]. - In the current market phase, mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are not providing clear direction, leading to uncertainty and a lack of long-term consensus [3][5]. - Meme assets thrive in uncertain environments as they do not require consensus or understanding of long-term value, serving as a "risk thermometer" to gauge market sentiment [3][5]. Group 2: Behavioral Shifts - The current Meme market is different from previous cycles, as the accumulation of open interest suggests that funds are using leverage to express their judgments, indicating a shift from mere emotional trading to more strategic positioning [5]. - When Meme assets transition from being expressions of emotion to expressions of positions, they begin to carry expectations, which can lead to rapid deleveraging if those expectations diverge [5][8]. - The market's focus on easily understandable assets like Meme indicates a lack of restored consensus, with participants opting for the most straightforward trading options available [7][8]. Group 3: Future Implications - For the market to transition from a "temporary marketplace" represented by Meme assets to a more stable environment, it requires clearer value anchors and a more organized funding structure [8]. - If Bitcoin, Ethereum, or broader altcoin markets can establish stronger trends following a liquidity recovery, Meme assets may signal a genuine return of risk appetite; otherwise, their popularity could mask a deeper consensus vacuum [8].

Group 1 - Global market liquidity is tightening as the Christmas holiday approaches, with year-end trading characteristics becoming more pronounced [1] - There is no clear dominance of risk aversion or risk appetite in the market, with funds being allocated across different assets [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties and market pricing of the Federal Reserve's mid-term easing path continue to support gold prices, which are reaching historical highs [1][2] Group 2 - Gold has maintained its role as a core macro hedge asset, with spot gold prices remaining in a historical high range and an annual increase of 70%, marking one of the strongest yearly performances in decades [2] - JPMorgan maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing tariff uncertainties, central bank purchases, and synchronized demand from ETFs and physical markets as core factors supporting the gold bull market [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed resilience, with financial and materials sectors leading the gains, indicating a reallocation towards real economy-related assets in a rate-cut environment [2] Group 3 - Recent inflation data has not provided clear guidance for the market, with missing key inflation data due to government shutdown affecting the CPI report's reference value [3] - Market expectations for further rate cuts are present, but pricing of policy paths has slowed down significantly [3] - Geopolitical risks are increasingly influencing market sentiment, with a cautious stance from Federal Reserve officials regarding the economic outlook [3] Group 4 - Traders are increasing bullish bets on U.S. Treasuries, particularly focusing on the 10-year Treasury yield falling to around 4% [4] - Large asset management institutions are adopting a defensive approach, increasing cash holdings and reducing leverage, indicating heightened caution towards high valuations and geopolitical risks [4] - The current market is characterized by a combination of year-end risk appetite, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical factors, with the stock market maintaining a recovery pattern despite declining liquidity [4]

Group 1: Economic Overview - US inflation for October and November was significantly lower than expected, with a potential rebound in December. The focus of the Federal Reserve has shifted towards addressing weak employment under a K-shaped recovery, maintaining an overall accommodative policy stance, and market expectations for interest rate cuts next year have increased [1][11] - In China, November data on consumption and investment showed weakness, indicating that domestic demand still needs stabilization. However, the recovery in export growth has supported industrial production, while retail sales were affected by the decline in government subsidies and the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [1][11] Group 2: Market Strategy - In the bond market, the funding environment remained stable, with short-term yields declining and mid to long-term yields showing volatility. The central bank is expected to implement substantial easing to lower bank funding costs ahead of potential interest rate cuts [2][12] - For A-shares, the framework indicates a bottoming of profits, but liquidity and risk appetite remain negative. The rapid decline in US CPI has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting the offshore market [2][13] - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase benefiting from liquidity but facing weak fundamentals. The improvement of the price level in 2026 will be crucial for market performance [2][13] Group 3: Commodity Insights - In the oil market, global economic fundamentals indicate weak demand, continuous supply release, and inventory accumulation, leading to sustained price pressure [3][14] - For gold, the reduction of uncertainties due to easing US-China trade tensions and a shift in focus from trade to domestic policy may lead to a gradual decrease in risk premiums, potentially slowing the pace of gold price increases while maintaining a positive long-term outlook [3][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent economic data from the US and key events such as interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan have alleviated previous market uncertainties, leading to improved global liquidity expectations and a recovery in risk appetite [1] - Global stock markets have shown a recovery trend after an initial decline, with notable performance in metal commodities [1] - Despite the year-end assessment approaching, institutional investor sentiment remains cautious, resulting in a contraction in trading volume in the AH market, with a prevailing judgment of market volatility from timing models [1] Group 2 - The recommendation is to maintain a strategy of "light index, heavy structure," suggesting to look for opportunities in low-position sectors while preparing for the spring market rally [1] - Industry recommendations include precious metals, automotive, computing, media, and real estate sectors [1] - On the style front, there is a positive outlook for small-cap stocks, with advice to avoid high-position large-cap stocks and prioritize opportunities in lower-position sectors [1]