央行不仅要权衡货币政策效果，还需兼顾美元汇率变动带来的外溢效应。 全球化金融体系下，主要经济体的货币政策效应通过多重渠道跨境传导，对全球金融稳定构成重要影 响。传统理论强调利率差异与贸易竞争力两大主要渠道，但前者难以解释风险偏好主导下的资本流动， 后者在美元主导的全球贸易格局中传导效力亦有所削弱。参考美联储近期关于货币政策传导机制的工作 论文，提出美元渠道作为货币政策跨境传导的重要补充。 实证显示，美元汇率本身构成独立的风险偏好传导渠道，其强弱不仅是利差或贸易的结果，更折射出全 球风险偏好与融资环境的深层变化。美元升值推高美国杠杆贷款市场的融资利差，其中高风险贷款利差 对美元汇率波动更为敏感。美元渠道不仅强化了全球主要央行对美联储政策取向的外部约束，也放大了 美联储自身在国内金融环境中的政策效力，并通过资本流动与风险溢价的传导进一步放大全球金融周期 的波动性与非对称性，加剧政策制定难度。 综合而言，美元渠道政策传导和风险放大器的作用意味着美联储及其他主要央行在制定政策时，不仅要 权衡货币政策效果，还需兼顾美元汇率变动带来的外溢效应，并在宏观审慎政策层面寻求更为精细的协 调与平衡。 首先，美元渠道独立于传统利差 ...

（文华综合） 周五晚间宏观氛围急转直下，风险资产普遍大跌，沪铜受累加速下行，假期归来涨幅一度全面回吐。不 过早间沪铜和国际铜跌幅收窄，目前都在2%附近，当前中美贸易局势不确定性仍存，市场仍在等待事 态进一步明朗。 ...

债市周周谈：债市进攻 20251012 摘要 三季度股市上涨提升全社会风险偏好，压制债市。与 2015 年不同，当 前债市交易盘占比上升，更易受股市行情影响。中美新一轮关税战及股 市高估值带来不确定性，或导致风险偏好下降，利好债市。 预计 2026 年十年期国债收益率可能降至 1.5%。若中美未能达成妥协， 美国加征 100%关税，收益率可能突破 1.6%。央行或提前降息 10- 20BP，政策利率已降至历史低位。 当前股价估值较高，上证指数接近 4,000 点，国家队救援存在不确定性。 央行数据显示国家队可能已减持股票或 ETF，高估值使市场面临较大波 动风险。 中美贸易战升级，美国仅针对中国，不急于妥协。中国面临贸易关系紧 张及其他国家潜在压力，市场波动加剧，风险偏好下降，对科技股牛市 构成挑战，为资金流入债市提供机会。 三季度银行理财资金流向短期存款和超短期信用产品。股市下跌时，机 构被迫减持股票，形成助涨助跌效应。年底考核压力或迫使机构调整持 仓，资金回流长久期信用产品。 Q&A 若政策利率下调 10-20BP，一年期 MLF 利率可能降至 1.4-1.5%，同业 存单利率降至 1.4%左右。经济增速 ...

四季度：政策对冲会重现吗？ 从近年的季节性规律来看，四季度历来是财政政策集中发力的高频窗口。一方面，在内需偏弱的大环境下，年度经济 目标的实现压力往往在年底集中体现，财政支出的节奏和强度通常在这一阶段明显上行；另一方面，前三季度 GDP 增 速与目标值的缺口越大，财政端加码对冲的概率也越高。无论是增发政府债，还是推进重大项目落地，财政在四季度 都具备较强的调节灵活性和政策空间。今年前三个季度的经济增速已基本明朗，而二、三季度基本面有所边际走弱， 那么今年会重演"四季度发力"吗？ 前三季度累计增速或高于年度目标，四季度"达标"压力较小。 在我们的基准情形下，根据拟合结果，三季度 GDP 增速大致落在 4.9%左右，前三季度累计增速或能达到 5.2%，高于 全年 5%左右的增长目标。从历史经验来看，参考近五年的表现，当前三季度累计增速已超出目标时，四季度新增大规 模逆周期政策的概率通常下降。按照上述测算进一步外推，今年四季度 GDP 同比增速达到约 4.6%，全年目标就基本可 以兑现。换句话说，即便四季度经济延续二、三季度的温和回落态势，只要不显著脱离中枢水平，并叠加前期政策工 具逐步落地，经济增速预计仍能稳定在 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 10 日 股指基差系列： 风偏下行的双向波动可能持续 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李宏磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018445 | lihonglei@gtht.com | 报告导读： 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 ◼ "九三"共识兑现过后各板块出现结构性过热后的价值回归，A 股成交温和缩量，单日成交逐 步下滑至 2.2 万亿左右，热点题材的虹吸效应增强，板块轮动加速，宽基指数先下跌后缓慢 修复，多数指数月线涨幅收窄，双创指数月线表现依然强势，涨幅在 10%以上，中小盘受伤较 重，中证 2000 月线转跌。 ◼ 月初调整过后，各品种日度级别的基差变化与指数变动的关联较弱，多数交易日呈现双向波 动，同时日内 1min 级别的基差变化在品种间分歧依然较大，这或许说明当前期货场内风险偏 好并未改善，仍然是相对无序的状态。截至 9 月末，各品种年化基差率回升至近三年以来 20% 分位数附近。 ◼ 产品端来看， ...

港股方面，美联储预防式降息后，港股通常显现较强弹性。 虽然盈利周期仍在偏弱，但流动性和风险偏好因子改善，市场中期性价比较高。结构方面，美联储降息 落地利好金铜有色和成长风格。 海外方面，美国政府关门风波，美债利率先下后上，日本拟任新首相倾向财政货币双宽，全球主要股指 上涨，黄金突破4000美元/盎司，原油弱。 国内方面，9月制造业PMI较8月的49.4%边际回升至49.8%，非制造业商务活动指数较8月的50.3%略回 落至50%，生产端改善强于需求侧。市场风险偏好仍较高。 市场策略方面，债券方面，节前利率高位震荡，多空博弈激烈。节前央行公告节后开展3个月买断式逆 回购呵护月初流动性，展现货币政策支持性立场未变，但节前跨季央行14天逆回购的谨慎投放也显示资 金空转仍是央行重点目标之一，资金面或维持相对宽松但难向下突破。基本面和流动性环境整体利好债 市，但四季度四中全会、中美谈判、公募基金费率新政等事件或形成扰动，预计短期债市或维持震荡格 局。 A股方面，尽管国庆消费未能超预期，但目前仍处于美联储降息的窗口期，考虑到四中全会和中央经济 工作会议可能带来新的内需增量政策，指数下行风险可能较小。结构上，科技成长在国内 ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the growth rate of the real - sector's liabilities expected to decline to around 8% by the end of the year, and the government - sector's liabilities to around 12.5%. The bond market will not enter a trending bear market, and yields are expected to oscillate at low levels. Risk preference repair is basically in place, and future risk preference will oscillate within a range with earnings. The recommended asset - allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value stocks. In the de - leveraging cycle, the dividend - type stocks in the A + H market are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [3][4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In August 2025, the real - sector's liability growth rate was 8.9%, down from 9.1% previously, and is expected to drop to around 8.7% in September. The government's liability growth rate was 15.0% at the end of August, and is expected to decline to around 14.5% in September. The central bank aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and large - scale debt resolution reduces local government financing costs. The money market tightened marginally last week, and there is a higher probability of a temporary relaxation in October [3][4]. - **Asset Side**: The physical volume data in August was weaker than in July. The annual nominal economic growth target for 2025 is around 4.9%, and it needs to be further observed whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [5]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Overall Performance**: Last week, the money market tightened marginally, and the stock - bond market was generally stable, with value stocks slightly outperforming. The ten - year bond yield rose 1 basis point to 1.88%, and the one - year bond yield remained stable at 1.39%. The wide - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 0.66pct last week and - 8.04pct since July [7]. - **Risk Preference and Asset Allocation**: Risk preference repair is basically in place, and future risk preference will oscillate within a range with earnings. The recommended asset - allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value stocks. In the next two weeks, the recommended allocation is the SSE 50 index (60% position), the CSI 1000 index (20% position), and the 30 - year Treasury bond ETF (20% position) [9][10]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. The sectors with the largest increases were power equipment, non - ferrous metals, electronics, environmental protection, and media, while the sectors with the largest declines were social services, comprehensive, commercial retail, light manufacturing, and textile and apparel [33]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of September 26, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, computers, machinery, and automobiles, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel. The industries with the largest increase in crowding were power equipment, electronics, non - ferrous metals, computers, and media [34]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, the PE (TTM) of power equipment, non - ferrous metals, electronics, environmental protection, and media increased the most, while that of social services, comprehensive, commercial retail, light manufacturing, and textile and apparel increased the least. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banking, insurance, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and consumer electronics [39][40]. - **Industry Prosperity**: External demand generally rebounded, with the global manufacturing PMI rising from 49.7 to 50.9 in August. Domestic demand showed mixed signals, with second - hand housing prices falling and some quantity indicators rising and falling. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries increased from May to August and declined slightly in September [44]. - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the fourth week of September, most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of September 26, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 4.21 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [60]. - **Industry Recommendation**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [11].

Report Title - Local Boom in Convertible Bond Gold Mining (1) [2] Report Date and Analysts - Report Date: September 28, 2025 - Analysts: Luo Yunfeng (SAC No.: S1050524060001), Yang Feiran (SAC No.: S1050524070001) [3] Core Views - The core driving force of the market in this round has been the improvement of risk appetite, which is an endogenous variable of profitability. Since September, considering the decline in equity trading volume, the narrowing gap between the growth and value of equities, and the increase in the proportion of the same - direction movement of stocks and bonds, it is believed that the repair of risk appetite is basically in place. In the future, risk appetite will fluctuate within a range along with profitability, with the upper and lower limits corresponding to the levels in early January (the week of January 6) and early September (the week of September 8) respectively. On September 25, 2025, it approached the lowest level in recent years on October 12, 2024 [4]. - The recent shift of the market from "banks + micro - cap stocks" to technology has a profit foundation, that is, the overall economy is bottoming out but there are local upturns. The private - sector debt growth rate is used as a proxy variable for profitability, and its downward bottom appeared in October 2024 and has not reached a new low as of July 2025 [4]. - The long - term cycle of convertible bonds is synchronized with equities. The periodic recovery of convertible bond valuations provides signals for left - hand side position - adding and profit - taking. Therefore, short - term fluctuations may be leading and amplifying signals of equities. Recently, although convertible bond valuations have been actively adjusted, they are still at a relatively high level. After the holiday, attention should be paid to locally booming industries and performance - realizing targets [6]. 01 Risk Appetite Will Follow Profitability in Range - bound Fluctuations - The repair of risk appetite in this round may be basically in place. The highest point of risk appetite since data became available was in 2007, and the lowest point was on April 7, 2025. Excluding the impact of event - driven factors, the lowest point was in January 2025. The private - sector debt growth rate, as a proxy variable for profitability, reached its bottom in October 2024 and has not set a new low as of July 2025. The risk appetite may enter a range - bound fluctuation, and on September 25, 2025, it approached the lowest level in recent years on October 12, 2024 [8]. - The overall economic fundamentals are still in the bottom - grinding stage. In the second quarter, the real GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than in the first quarter. Investment has been sluggish due to the real estate sector, and infrastructure investment has declined at an accelerating pace since mid - year. Consumption has been affected by the high - then - low national subsidies at the beginning of the year, and the CPI has been in a slump. Industrial product prices have shown a trend of price increases with volume contraction. From the perspective of Wind All - A earnings data, the overall economic fundamentals are still bottoming out [11][14]. 02 Fundamental Local Boom Corresponds to the Double - Innovation Market - In terms of revenue, the improvement of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the ChiNext Index is leading, while the Micro - cap and Dividend Indexes have the most obvious decline. In 2025Q2, the revenue growth rate of the ChiNext Index increased by 5 percentage points to 9.3%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ended its relative disadvantage for three consecutive quarters. The revenue of the Micro - cap and Dividend Indexes decreased by 7.8% and 5.9% respectively in 2025Q2 [18]. - In terms of gross profit margin, compared with 2024Q2, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the SSE 50 had the most significant increase in gross profit margin in 2025Q2, up 2.5 and 2.0 percentage points respectively. The ChiNext Index had a gross profit margin of 24.5% in 2025Q2, still the highest among broad - based indexes [21]. - Most indexes' year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025Q2 declined quarter - on - quarter. The Science and Technology Innovation Board had a significant improvement in net profit in 2025Q2, and the ChiNext Index continued to lead other broad - based indexes in terms of growth rate [24]. - In terms of specific industries, in 2025Q2, the industries with the highest year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders were gaming (104%), steel (82%), precious metals (76%), etc. The industries with the largest decline were real estate (- 132%), coal (- 37%), etc. The industries with positive growth in 2025Q2 and an improvement compared with 2025Q1 were banks, insurance, etc. Combining the historical percentile of valuation, the industries with high performance growth and still some room for valuation are power equipment, new energy, gaming, and consumer electronics [29][30] 03 Convertible Bonds Follow Equities to Explore Locally Booming Sectors - The long - term cycle of convertible bonds is synchronized with equities. The short - term periodic recovery of convertible bond valuations provides signals for left - hand side position - adding and profit - taking. Short - term fluctuations may be leading and amplifying signals of equities. Recently, although convertible bond valuations have been actively adjusted, they are still at a relatively high level. After the holiday, attention should be paid to locally booming industries and performance - realizing targets. Convertible bond targets with good performance in 2025Q2 are concentrated in power equipment, electronics, etc. [45] - The All - A Index can basically explain most of the long - term fluctuations of convertible bonds. The regression results show that the performance of convertible bonds mainly follows the equity market, and the equity market trend can explain 91.4% of the price fluctuations of the convertible bond market. The convertible bond market follows equities in this round, and is less affected by the bond market [48][59] - The short - term fluctuations of convertible bond valuations provide signals for left - hand side position - adding and profit - taking. From June 23 to August 25, the active increase in convertible bond valuations was greater than that of the underlying stocks. Therefore, the convertible bond market entered the downward - oscillation cycle earlier than the equity market on August 27 and had a larger decline due to the return of valuations [61] - ETF share fluctuations have a relatively small impact on the price fluctuations of underlying convertible bond targets. Since September, the growth rate of convertible bond ETF shares has decreased significantly, which may mainly reflect sentiment and valuation [64] - Convertible bonds with good profitability have larger increases and are more resistant to declines. From June 23 to August 25, convertible bonds followed the underlying stocks in a sharp rise, with the growth sector leading. Some convertible bonds in individual sectors outperformed the underlying stocks, mainly concentrated in industries and targets with excellent performance. From August 25 to September 23, convertible bonds led the All - A Index in decline, and their subsequent performance was weaker than that of equities, mainly due to the periodicity of convertible bond valuation fluctuations [70][77] - The new energy sector under the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 may be one of the most certain trading directions in the next five years. The new energy vehicle penetration rate continues to increase, and the energy storage market has an important turning point. The report focuses on Keli Convertible Bonds and Hongfa Convertible Bonds in the new energy field [83] - Keli Convertible Bonds: Kodal Precision is the global leader in precision structural parts. The company's performance has been growing steadily. The convertible bond has a relatively large issuance scale, and the current price is around 140 yuan, with a conversion premium rate of 18.6%. It is an offensive convertible bond with high - quality underlying stocks and has no risk of forced redemption for the time being [87][89][92] - Hongfa Convertible Bonds: Hongfa Co., Ltd. is the world's largest relay manufacturer. The company's performance has been growing steadily. The convertible bond has a large issuance scale, and the current price is around 134 yuan, with a conversion premium rate of 18.2%. The downward - adjustment clause is relatively loose [95][98][101]

在美国金融条件已然宽松的背景下，美联储依然选择降息，向市场发出积极信号。 鲍威尔的重心转移：就业优先，容忍更高通胀 Shah分析认为，鲍威尔的最新表态确认了美联储对通胀一定程度的容忍，即"3%是新的2%"，这正日益 成为全球央行官员的新常态。 Citadel Securities宏观策略师Nohshad Shah近日发文称，美联储的鸽派转向已经为风险资产在今年剩余时 间内的表现"亮起绿灯"，在投资者看来，"提高风险偏好"是当前唯一的结论。 上周，美联储启动了其所谓的"预防式降息"，将利率下调了25个基点，并确认了今年余下时间将维持鸽 派政策倾向。根据最新的经济预测摘要（SEP），政策制定者对2025年利率预测的中位数为三次降息， 高于6月预测的两次，这意味着市场应将10月和12月再次降息25个基点视为基本情景。 鲍威尔在会后声明和新闻发布会上证实，"就业面临的下行风险已经上升"。对此，Nohshad Shah指出， 鲍威尔的关注重心已明确转向劳动力市场的疲软，这带动了委员会核心成员的立场转变。 文章指出，这一系列行动和表态的直接影响是，4月关税冲击后持续放宽的金融条件将变得"更加宽 松"，在宏观经济基本面稳健 ...