来源：华尔街情报圈 市场试图预测不可预测之事：特朗普的下一句话。 周二是令投资者神经错乱的一天： 周二的行情是"防守过度后的回踩"。 第一，这并非是风险偏好回升，如果是，那么黄金会横盘或小涨，比特币会跟涨。从关联性看，黄金不 再与美股同涨，比特币也未能追随美股的涨势，美股这样的涨势令人不安，更像是去拥挤后的技术修 复。所有人都在防守，当仓位已经防守，市场反而更容易因为"没有更坏"而上涨（本质是"仓位驱动"的 反弹，而不是"预期驱动"的上涨）。 第二，黄金的两波下跌值得留意。一波发生在北京时间08:00-09:00（没有等风险情绪确认就先跌），另 一波发生在20:00-21:00，这是消息面清淡的两个时段，金价靠"自然惯性"是推不动的。黄金现在不是趋 势加速阶段，而是情绪消退阶段。过去几周，黄金与美股是"同涨"状态，这代表流动性主导，美元弱化 预期。但周二"美股涨，黄金跌"，意味着其可能重新回到"避险资产"属性，而不是"流动性资产"。需要 再观察几个交易日黄金和美股的关联性。 第三，今天的关注焦点是特朗普发表的国情咨文（北京时间10:00开始，预计长达2-3小时），交易员们 关注他在处理伊朗问题和关税问题上，用 ...

盛宝银行分析师在一份报告中称，出于对人工智能（AI）造成干扰和关税不确定性的担忧，加密货币 与其他风险资产一道继续走软。他们表示，周一美国比特币和以太币现货交易所交易基金（ETF）分别 录得约2.038亿美元和4，950万美元的净流出，这反映了这种谨慎情绪。只要关税不确定性和股票市场 波动持续存在，数字资产"就可能会与整体风险偏好同步波动，而不是受独立的加密货币题材驱动。"伦 敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）的数据显示，比特币下跌2.1%，至63，214美元，此前一度触及两周半低 点62，734美元。以太币下跌2.3%，至1，821美元，隔夜曾触及两周半低点1，813美元。Solana和XRP 的跌幅也超过2%。 责任编辑：何云 责任编辑：何云 盛宝银行分析师在一份报告中称，出于对人工智能（AI）造成干扰和关税不确定性的担忧，加密货币 与其他风险资产一道继续走软。他们表示，周一美国比特币和以太币现货交易所交易基金（ETF）分别 录得约2.038亿美元和4，950万美元的净流出，这反映了这种谨慎情绪。只要关税不确定性和股票市场 波动持续存在，数字资产"就可能会与整体风险偏好同步波动，而不是受独立的加密货币题材驱动。 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 发布时间：2026-02-24 近期研究报告 《跨越化债边界，长久期城投债怎么 看？20260211》 - 2026.02.12 固收周报 节后债券交易逻辑有变化吗？ 研究所 ⚫ 交易逻辑变化不大，沿节前预设节奏进行 第一，节中消费、交运等景气数据的改善不乏亮点，但难以形成 对债市预期的显著冲击。 第二，节后风险偏好可能继续上行，但对债市的冲击也不会强于 节前。 第三，节后流动性无虞，降息进入"两会"前的观察窗口，预计 兑现概率不高，故债市交易情绪可能有所降温。 第四，大行年初负债相对宽松，是节前配置盘活跃度提升的主要 驱动，这条主线是阶段性的，在 3 月可能有所松动，二季度可能有变。 第五，超长期政府债的发行依然是主要关注因素，供需处于紧平 衡，3 月地方债发行计划明细增多，可能构成压力。 总之，节后债券的交易逻辑变化不大，依然沿着节前预设节奏进 行。对债市投资者而言，持仓过节之后，已经在 2 月获取了收益率小 幅下行的资本利得，继续博弈的胜率和赔率虽然不高 ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 节后债市应对指南 （一）2 月利率破位下行，三股推力 2 月以来，债市延续强势行情，10 年国债收益率成功突破 1.80%阻力位，由 1.81%下行至 1.78%。期间交易 型品种表现更为突出，5 年、30 年国债收益率均下行 4bp 至 1.54%、2.25%，5 年、7 年、10 年国开债收益率分 别下行 5bp、6bp、4bp 至 1.74%、1.86%、1.95%，3 年、5 年二级资本债收益率降幅更是达到 5bp、8bp。 长端利率超预期突破箱体的背后，主要有三股推力。首先是配置盘供需错位叙事或仍在延续。尽管 2 月政府 债发行速度较 1 月边际提升，单月净供给规模由 1.18 万亿元提升至 1.38 万亿元，但银行负债或始终处于相对充裕 的状态。2025 年 12 月与 2026 年 1 月，大型银行境内存款增幅分别为 1.59、4.17 万亿元，远超过去五年同期季 节性均值 0.03、2.75 万亿元；中小型银行增幅分别为 1.21、2.44 万亿元，同样位于历史同期高位水平。叠加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp sell-off in the cryptocurrency market has diminished, but liquidity is thin due to the U.S. holiday, indicating that a recovery is not yet assured [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The relative calm in the cryptocurrency market marks a significant change compared to the frantic sell-offs of recent months [1] - Precious metals continue to rise, exerting pressure on cryptocurrencies amid cautious risk appetite [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Bitcoin has increased by 0.9% to $69,498 after earlier declines, while Ethereum has risen by 1.7% to $1,989 [1] - On February 6, Bitcoin hit a 16-month low of $60,008, and Ethereum reached a nine-month low of $1,751 [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - A sustained recovery in the cryptocurrency market requires a revival in prices and market interest, especially in light of the anticipated "crypto winter" in 2025/26 [1]

对于近期行情涨涨跌跌，反反复复，多空转换频繁，很多投资朋友们都措手不及，或不知从何下手，一买进就跌，出场就涨，来来回回连续损单，其实这是 很多新手朋友们都会出现的情况，在这里告诉大家，做交易首先不要频繁去操作，其次要对行情需要有一个精准的把控，坚持自己的交易系统，当然这些对 一些新手朋友来说都是空谈，毕竟才入市并没有严格的交易计划，大多数都是追涨杀跌从而导致严重亏损，如果此时此刻看到文章的你也是这样的情况，那 么可以咨询本人沟通交流一下，可以帮你指出做单中所有的问题，这样可以让你在交易的过程中少走弯路。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：上周五亚洲时段，现货黄金（XAU/USD）延续昨日回落，价格一度跌至4910美元附近，随后反弹。本轮下行并非孤立事件，而是在宏观 数据强化利率高位预期与市场流动性收紧背景下形成的集中抛售。人工智能相关资产波动引发市场风险偏好下降，多类资产出现联动回撤。与此同时，部分 杠杆资金面临追加保证金压力，被动平仓行为进一步加剧金价跌势。此次金价急跌本质上是"流动性+利率预期"双重驱动的结果。就业数据只是触发点，保 证金压力与量化放大了市场反应。 短期来看，黄金走势将完全受制于通胀 ...

欧洲市场早盘，金价走软，纽约黄金期货价格维持在每盎司5,100美元下方，因强于预期的美国就业人 数数据和失业率下降，降低了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。盛宝银行的分析师表示："市场对未来经 济数据的重新关注表明，在近期波动性飙升后市场出现一定程度的正常化，而中国即将到来的春节假期 可能会进一步抑制风险偏好和流动性。"黄金期货下跌0.3%，至每盎司5,082.50美元；白银下跌0.9%， 至每盎司83.16美元。美元指数持平于96.88。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Asset Allocation Insights - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - The risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - Bond performance in February is expected to follow risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Market Sentiment and Risk Assessment - Regulatory measures in January have led to a more balanced risk preference, with high-risk investors showing decreased appetite while low-risk investors gain confidence[9] - Trading sentiment across large, mid, and small-cap stocks has cooled, but medium-term uncertainty remains relatively stable[9] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Current price increases in cyclical goods are key indicators for asset allocation, with a positive outlook on sectors like chemicals, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals[30] - The report highlights two main drivers for price increases: industrialization in emerging economies and geopolitical tensions affecting import prices[30] Model and Strategy Suggestions - The recommendation includes increasing positions in mid-term bonds and focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and military technology for February[5] - The multi-asset allocation strategy suggests a combination of passive and active enhancements, with a focus on risk parity models for stock and bond allocations[48] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9]

Market Outlook - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - Risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - The bond market is expected to continue following risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Investment Strategy - The report recommends increasing allocations to mid-cap blue chips and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, military, communication, and electronics[5] - A dual strategy of passive and active enhancement is suggested for stock-bond allocation, with a focus on increasing positions in mid-term bonds[48] Industry Insights - Price increases in cyclical goods are highlighted as key investment clues, particularly in the chemical, agricultural, and non-ferrous sectors[30] - Geopolitical tensions are raising global economic risk assessments, which is a fundamental driver for commodity price increases[30] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9] Risk Considerations - Extreme risk events could disrupt market expectations, and there is a risk of quantitative models failing to predict future trends[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold price oscillated and rebounded due to a political "black swan" event in the UK and active trading in the Japanese morning session. The premium of Shanghai Gold converged, and short - term volatility was high. It has not returned to the upward trend, so cautious operation is recommended. [4] - Silver price rose significantly again due to increased risk appetite. The premium of Shanghai Silver converged, and the price remained highly volatile without returning to the upward channel, also suggesting cautious operation. [5] - With the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and loose policies, high risk appetite, which supports gold and silver prices. However, the downward risks also increase. [10][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The UK political "black swan" event occurred. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields mostly fell, the US dollar index dropped, and COMEX gold futures rose 2.10% to $5084.20 per ounce. The basis was - 4.08, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 104,052 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased. [4] - **Silver**: Risk appetite increased, and the silver price rose significantly again. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields mostly fell, the US dollar index dropped, and COMEX silver futures rose 8.00% to $83.05 per ounce. The basis was - 1123, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 62,559 kilograms to 349,900 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased. [5][6] 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: Today, pay attention to the US December retail sales and import price index, as well as the speeches of Fed officials. The political "black swan" in the UK and active trading in the Japanese morning session led to a stronger Asian stock market and a rebound in the gold price. The premium of Shanghai Gold converged to about - 1.8 yuan/gram, and the sentiment converged. CME and SHFE raised margins again, with high short - term volatility and the price not yet back in the upward trend, so cautious operation is needed. [4] - **Silver**: The political "black swan" in the UK and active trading in the Japanese morning session led to a stronger Asian stock market and a significant rebound in the silver price, which declined in the morning. The premium of Shanghai Silver converged, and the domestic sentiment cooled rapidly. The silver price remained highly volatile without returning to the upward channel, so cautious operation is recommended. [5] 3.3 Today's Focus - Time TBD: The International Energy Week opens in London, UK (February 10 - 12) [17] - 21:30: US December retail sales and import price index [4][17] - 23:00: The New York Fed releases the Q4 2025 household debt and credit report [17] - Next day 01:00: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack talks about the banking industry and economic outlook [17] - Next day 02:00: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at an asset management forum [17] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and loose policies, high risk appetite, which makes it difficult for the gold price to fall. However, as all metals are strengthening, the downward risk of the gold price also increases. [10] - **Silver**: With the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and loose policies, high risk appetite, and there is still macro - level support. The sentiment of bullishness and investment is high. Although the sentiment has cooled slightly under regulatory pressure, the price has not declined. [14] 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold increased by 3.32% to 149,691 on February 9 compared with February 8, the short position decreased by 13.49% to 32,638, and the net position increased by 9.24% to 117,053. [33] - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Silver increased by 1.25% to 301,257 on February 9 compared with February 6, the short position increased by 2.04% to 203,025, and the net position decreased by 0.35% to 98,232. [35]