锂矿概念股爆发，个股掀起涨停潮，此前津巴布韦矿业及矿产发展部发布紧急声明，宣布即刻起暂停所有原矿和锂精矿的出口。 2月26日，A股震荡下跌，三大股指早盘集体走低，创业板跌近1%，盐湖提锂、锂矿概念股爆发，半导体、光伏等板块调整。港股震荡回落，恒 科指跌近1%，科网股多数下跌。 债市方面，国债期货集体下跌。商品方面，国内商品期货多数上涨，碳酸锂继续大涨，现涨超5%。汇市方面，离岸人民币升破6.84关口，最高触 及6.8384。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 4137.80 | -9.43 | -0.23% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 14424.91 | -50.96 | -0.35% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 3316.56 | -38.26 | -1.14% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 4718.69 | -17.20 | -0.36% | | 000016 | FJE20 | | 3036 ...

Market Overview - In January 2026, global funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, with China experiencing a notable decline in fund allocation[3] - The Brent crude oil price increased by 14.6%, while industrial and precious metals saw substantial gains, with LME nickel, copper, and aluminum rising over 10%[3] - The U.S. equity market attracted $44.9 billion, while non-U.S. equity markets only saw an inflow of $2.3 billion during the same period[12] Fund Flows - China’s equity market experienced an outflow of $96.2 billion in January, while the fixed income market saw a $17 billion outflow[25] - Active funds contributed $2.1 billion to the Chinese equity market, whereas passive funds saw a significant outflow of $98.2 billion[22] - The relative outflow ratios for Chinese fixed income and equity funds reached 11.0% and 7.2%, respectively, indicating a higher outflow compared to other major markets[22] Global Asset Allocation - As of December 2025, the global allocation to U.S. equities slightly decreased to 61.2%, while the allocation to Chinese equities was at a historical low of 31.5%[3] - Emerging markets reduced their allocation to Chinese equities, with the current allocation ratio at 37.7%, reflecting a downward trend[3] Risk Factors - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not accurately represent long-term trends, and potential economic downturns in Europe and the U.S. could impact market stability[3]

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 12th to January 16th, the US December CPI year - on - year growth rate met expectations and remained the same as the previous value. Global geopolitical risks continued to impact the market. The US dollar index rose weekly. Stocks and commodities performed strongly, while the bond market declined. In terms of the US dollar, commodities > stocks > bonds. In the domestic market, the stock market was divided, and the bond market and commodities rose weekly. Commodities > bonds > stocks. Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes [5][8][19]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Major Asset Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, market sentiment was relatively cautious. Trump called for setting a 10% credit card interest rate cap starting from January 20, 2026, pressuring US stocks. Most global stock markets rose, with the Asia - Pacific region leading in gains. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose weekly. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.75% weekly and 5.62% year - to - date, while the MSCI US fell 0.38% weekly but rose 1.39% year - to - date [10][13][14]. - **Global Bond Market**: Recently, most Fed officials' statements were hawkish, cooling market expectations of interest rate cuts. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields generally rose, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 6BP to 4.24% weekly. The bond market was weak, and globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, data such as the US November retail sales month - on - month growth rate were good, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was volatile and strong. The US dollar index rose 0.23% weekly [16][17]. - **Global Commodity Market**: Geopolitical factors supported the weekly rise of international oil prices. Precious metal prices rose, while most non - ferrous metal and agricultural product prices fell. International silver prices rose significantly [17]. Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: Market risk appetite declined. Most major broad - based A - share indices rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks was weak. Computer and electronics sectors led in gains, while the military and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% weekly [20][22]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, the central bank's net open - market operations injected 111.28 billion yuan. The capital market fluctuated, and the bond market was strong weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led in gains. For example, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 9.41% weekly [24][25]. Major Asset Price Outlook - Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes. It is necessary to pay attention to their subsequent changes [4][26].

Report Overview - Report Title: Macro and Commodity Weekly Report - Analyst: Wang Jing - Release Date: January 12, 2026 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the first week of 2026, the global capital market showed a positive trend. A-shares in China had a strong start, while overseas, geopolitical tensions increased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut decreased. The US dollar first rose and then fell, and the RMB remained stable and strong. Commodities performed well, with precious metals leading the way, followed by non-ferrous and black metals, energy, and agricultural products [5][10]. - The domestic bond market declined, with short-term bonds performing better than long-term bonds. The stock market had a broad-based rally, with the growth style outperforming the value style, and the CSI 500 leading the gains. All domestic commodity sectors closed higher, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 4.01% week-on-week [5]. - In the futures market, funds flowed into the commodity market, especially into non-ferrous metals, non-metallic building materials, coal, coking, and steel, oilseeds, and energy sectors. The soft commodity sector saw a significant outflow of funds. The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index continued to decline, while the volatility of the domestic Wind and Nanhua Commodity Indexes increased [6]. 3) Section Summaries Market Overview - Global capital markets were positive in the first week of 2026. A-shares in China had a strong start, while overseas, geopolitical tensions increased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut decreased. The US dollar first rose and then fell, and the RMB remained stable and strong. Commodities performed well, with precious metals leading the way, followed by non-ferrous and black metals, energy, and agricultural products [5][10]. - The domestic bond market declined, with short-term bonds performing better than long-term bonds. The stock market had a broad-based rally, with the growth style outperforming the value style, and the CSI 500 leading the gains. All domestic commodity sectors closed higher, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 4.01% week-on-week [5]. Futures Market Capital Flow - The commodity futures market saw a significant inflow of funds. The non-ferrous metals, non-metallic building materials, coal, coking, and steel, oilseeds, and energy sectors had obvious inflows, while the soft commodity sector had a significant outflow [6][19]. Futures Market Volatility - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index continued to decline, while the volatility of the domestic Wind and Nanhua Commodity Indexes increased. Most commodity futures sectors saw an increase in volatility, with the oilseeds and grain sectors seeing a significant decline, and the non-ferrous and soft commodity sectors seeing a notable increase [6][28]. Fed Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January decreased. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% was 95.4%, significantly higher than last week's 81.4%. The probability of a 25bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% dropped to 4.6%. The market still expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [6]. US Stock Market - The US stock market started strongly in 2026 but will face challenges in the coming week, including the start of the Q4 earnings season, the release of December inflation data, and increasing geopolitical uncertainties. The VIX index remained close to its 2025 low [7]. Sector Performance - In the futures market, most domestic commodity futures closed higher. The top gainers were lithium carbonate, platinum, and silver futures, while the top losers were polysilicon, container shipping index, and industrial silicon futures [24]. - In terms of market sentiment, there were few commodity futures with significant increases in both price and open interest, such as apples, aluminum, and coking coal. There were many commodity futures with significant decreases in both price and open interest, such as polysilicon, container shipping index, and peanuts [26]. Macro Logic - The domestic stock market rose across the board, with the growth style outperforming the value style. The valuation of the stock market increased, and the equity risk premium (ERP) decreased [34][35]. - The commodity price index fluctuated strongly, and the inflation expectation continued to rebound [38]. - The "fund seesaw" effect between the stock market and commodities was not significant, and the spread between domestic and international commodity futures widened [41][44]. - The US bond yield showed a differentiated trend, with the term spread slightly decreasing. The real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price reached a new high [53]. - The US high-frequency "recession indicator" declined, the Citi Economic Surprise Index turned down, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread widened significantly and then fluctuated within a narrow range [62]. Data Tracking - International commodities mostly rose, with the BDI index falling sharply, the CRB index remaining flat, soybeans and corn rising slightly, copper and oil prices increasing, and precious metals regaining their upward momentum [30]. - The asphalt开工率 decreased seasonally, real estate sales remained weak, freight rates rebounded and diverged, and short-term capital interest rates fluctuated upward [45]. - US bond yields fluctuated, the Sino-US interest rate spread remained stable, inflation expectations increased, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB remained stable and strong [60]. Economic Data - The US December non-farm payroll data was mixed. The number of non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% [72]. - China's December inflation data showed that both CPI and PPI continued to rebound. The CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing [77][78]. This Week's Focus - Monday (January 12): Swiss December consumer confidence index, Eurozone January Sentix investor confidence index, Japanese stock market closed for one day. - Tuesday (January 13): US 10-year Treasury auction, Japan's November trade balance, US December NFIB small business confidence index, US December unadjusted CPI annual rate, US December seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, US December seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, US October new home sales annualized, speeches by New York Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem. - Wednesday (January 14): US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9, US November retail sales monthly rate, US November PPI annual rate, US Q3 current account, US December existing home sales annualized, US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9, China's December trade balance, speech by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker on the economic outlook, speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman in Athens, OPEC monthly oil market report. - Thursday (January 15): UK November three-month GDP monthly rate, UK November seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, Germany's 2025 full-year GDP growth rate, Eurozone November seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, US EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending January 9, South Korea's central bank interest rate decision, Fed Beige Book, speech by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, opening speech by New York Fed President Williams at an event. - Friday (January 16): Germany's December CPI monthly rate final value, US December industrial production monthly rate, US January NAHB housing market index.

来源：第一财经 美欧日经济在2025年明显呈K形发展，强者愈强，弱者落伍。这种经济业态会在2026年继续。特朗普推 出的关税战，看来没有对美国经济，甚至贸易对手经济构成沉重打击，初始物价效应过后，也许没有人 再提了。美国支持以色列袭击加沙、伊朗，乃至亲自下场绑架委内瑞拉总统，这些是对联合国宪章的漠 视，并推翻了二战后的国际秩序，但在资本市场也没有卷起大的风浪。 然而，平推之中酝酿着变局。经济K形发展必然招致选民反弹，2026年最大变数就是美国中期选举。以 目前的民意，共和党可能会失去众议院多数席位，一旦成真将会冲击特朗普政府的执政能力。日本首相 高市早苗可能不久后会宣布提前大选，她的个人魅力将和选民对物价的不满直接碰撞。英国工党领袖之 争、德国地方选举，乃至法国2027年初的总统大选，均可能成为选民说NO的契机。 许多变化对经济的真实冲击需要更长时间酝酿才能看到。英国政客曾把脱欧吹得很厉害，但十年后选民 才发现，本国经济比脱欧前少了6%~8%，而且海外投资裹足不前，高收入人群逃离，财政状况每况愈 下。美国调高关税，打劫了世界，看上去对本国物价冲击有限，但其实主要涨价压力暂时被批发商、零 售商吞下，需要时间才能 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Macro and Commodity Weekly Report - Report Author: Wang Jing - Release Date: December 22, 2025 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Market Summary - Overseas, Japan's interest rate hike was uneventful, and the competition for the Fed Chair heated up. The market showed a dull performance approaching the year - end. Investors were cautious, the VIX index declined slightly, and risk - assets were mixed. Global stocks and commodities mostly fell, A - shares oscillated and pulled back, and the BDI index continued to decline. Commodities were under pressure with internal style transformation. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals weakened, oil prices remained weak, and the black series rebounded strongly [5][8]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rebounded with short - term weakness and long - term strength. Stock indices oscillated and were mostly down, with the growth - style stocks underperforming value - style stocks, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rising against the trend. The domestic commodity sectors showed mixed performance. The weekly change of the Wind Commodity Index was 1.5%, with 5 out of 10 commodity sub - indices rising and 5 falling. The black series was strong, with the coal, coke, steel, and ore and non - metallic building materials sectors rising over 4%. The chemical sector followed, while precious metals barely rose, and soft commodities were nearly flat. Other sectors fell, especially the oilseeds, grains, and agricultural products sectors. Non - ferrous metals turned down, and the energy sector continued to slump [5][14]. - In the futures market capital aspect, the overall capital of the commodity futures market slightly flowed out. The agricultural products and soft commodities sectors saw obvious capital inflows, while many sectors had capital outflows, with significant outflows in the non - metallic building materials, energy, and grain sectors [16]. 2. Volatility and Interest Rate Expectations - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index slightly increased, the domestic Wind Commodity Index had a small upward volatility, and the volatility of the Nanhua Commodity Index declined. By sector, the volatility of commodity futures sectors was mixed, with obvious volatility declines in the energy and oilseeds sectors and notable increases in the non - ferrous and soft commodities sectors [6][22]. - According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% in January was 75.2%, little changed from last week's 72.7%. The probability of a 25 - bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remained below 30%. The market expected 1 - 3 rate cuts in 2026 [6]. 3. Upcoming Events - Due to the approaching Christmas and New Year holidays, macro - economic data is scarce this week. The focus will be on a small amount of US economic data, especially GDP data. The initial estimate of US Q3 GDP will be released on December 23. Investors will assess the US economic performance and look for clues about the Fed's next rate - cut time. In addition, investors will seek guidance on the Bank of Japan's policy path from Governor Ueda Kazuo's speech on December 25 and the release of the meeting's opinion summary on December 29. The US stock market will close three hours early on December 24 and be closed on December 25 [7]. 4. Fed Chair Candidates - Kevin Hassett, the "insider" most likely to be nominated, is an economic policy "spokesperson" and political ally of Trump. He publicly supports rate cuts and has criticized the Fed's past policies [70]. - Kevin Warsh, the "returner" favored by Wall Street, has Fed experience and is strongly supported by the financial community. He has publicly advocated rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction [71]. - Christopher Waller, the "dark horse" with solid policy experience, is a current Fed governor. He has rational and consistent policy discussions on rate cuts and has promoted conservative reforms within the Fed [72]. 5. Other Key Information - US inflation data for November was lower than expected, with the CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year and the core CPI rising 2.6%. Many economists were puzzled by this, and the data was affected by the government shutdown [77]. - On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%. However, Governor Ueda Kazuo's cautious remarks on policy prospects pressured the yen, and the lack of a clear future rate - hike schedule confused investors. The market expects the Bank of Japan's future tightening to be gradual [84]. - This week's key economic data and events include UK Q3 GDP final value, US Q3 GDP initial estimate, and speeches from central bank governors [90].

冠通期货研究报告-- 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年12月08日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 市场综述 最近，市场宏观逻辑的要点在与下一任美联储主席的人选。鲍威尔即将卸任，特朗普积极插足，即将公布其已经确定的人选。白 宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特成为热门人选，市场交易更加宽松的预期，美债利率与美元双双承压。投资者风险偏好回暖，波 动率VIX指数大幅下降，风险资产悉数反弹。全球股市与大宗商品多数收涨，A股主要股指全线反弹，BDI指数逆势上扬，美元指数明显 收跌，非美货币多数走升。大宗商品涨跌互现，贵金属与有色双双上扬，油价迎来反弹。 国内债市涨跌互现近强远弱、股指全线反弹，商品大类板块涨跌互现多数收跌；股市全线反弹，成长型风格表现不如价值型，沪 深300反弹幅度最为明显；国内商品大类板块涨跌互现多数收跌，Wind商品指 ...

Group 1: Computer Industry Insights - In 2026, AI is expected to deeply drive the growth of the computer industry, resonating with high-growth sectors such as domestic production, quantum technology, financial IT, and intelligent driving [2] - The rapid iteration of models and high demand for computing power may accelerate commercialization [2] - Industrial software is moving into a "deep water zone," which will support the strategy of becoming a manufacturing powerhouse [2] - These dynamics could jointly promote the industry's dual recovery in performance and valuation [2] Group 2: Debt Market Opportunities - Current divergences in the stock market may create a rare allocation window for the bond market [5] - The yield of ten-year government bonds is suggested to have significant value [5] - The bond market may return to a fundamental pricing logic under the "low interest rate + high volatility" scenario in 2026 [5] Group 3: Deep Sea Technology Outlook - Deep sea technology is projected to release trillion-level opportunities by 2026 [7] - The acceleration of deep-sea mining by the U.S. and its inclusion in China's government work report may reshape the global competitive landscape [7] - There is potential for deep-sea mining to achieve cost parity by 2033, sparking a new wave of equipment investment [7] - Investors are advised to consider short-term FPSO supply chain opportunities and long-term underwater robotics [7] Group 4: Meituan Q3 Performance Review - Meituan's Q3 takeaway business reported a nearly 20 billion loss, raising questions about whether this is the peak [9] - Management's guidance on profitability recovery for Q4 following intense price competition is under scrutiny [9] - The in-store travel business is facing challenges with slowing growth and declining profit margins [9] - The expansion pace and investment efficiency of the new overseas engine, Keeta, in markets like Brazil are being evaluated [9]

Global Market Performance - Major global stock indices mostly declined due to multiple factors including the cooling of Fed rate cut expectations and the U.S. government shutdown, with Japan and South Korea leading the drop at 4.07% and 3.74% respectively[1] - The Nasdaq fell 3.04%, marking its worst weekly performance since April, driven by concerns over AI tech stock bubbles and liquidity pressures from the government shutdown[1] - Global bond yields mostly rose, with U.S. Treasury yields experiencing fluctuations amid liquidity tightening and policy expectation dynamics[1] Domestic Market Insights - The A-share market saw a slight increase despite reduced trading volume, with daily transactions falling below 2 trillion yuan, while the Hang Seng Index led major indices with a gain[2] - China's CPI rose year-on-year in October, alleviating deflation concerns, while PPI's decline narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in prices[2] - The People's Bank of China maintained liquidity easing, contributing to a stable bond market environment[2] Economic Developments - The U.S. government shutdown is entering its sixth week, with potential progress as Democrats soften their stance on funding resolutions[3] - China's exports showed a decline of 0.8% year-on-year in October, influenced by tariff disruptions and high base effects from the previous year[3] - China successfully issued $4 billion in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, with a subscription rate of 30 times, indicating strong international investor interest[3] Inflation and Price Trends - October's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, driven by holiday consumption and rising food prices, while core CPI rose to 1.2%[3] - The forecast for 2026 suggests a CPI central tendency of 0.6%, with expectations of price recovery driven by stable food prices and improved consumer demand[3] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected changes in macroeconomic conditions and industrial policies pose risks to market stability[5]

Group 1 - Trump's comments indicate that the U.S. is already in a trade war, with a suggestion that tariffs are necessary to avoid vulnerability [2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's statement implies that negotiations will only occur if beneficial to the U.S. economy, not due to stock market fluctuations [2] - The S&P 500 has been fluctuating within the same range for three consecutive days, indicating market caution and a wait-and-see approach [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have surpassed $4200, reaching a historical high, signaling a shift towards global defensive strategies amid a "no-trust trading period" [3] - Increased volatility in the stock market contrasts with decreased volatility in the bond market, suggesting a build-up of fear without an expansion of risk [4] - Negative news is being quickly priced into the market, leading to short-lived rebounds and diminishing market patience [4]