Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the disruption of global energy supply chains due to military actions by the US and Israel against Iran, leading to significant fluctuations in oil and gas prices [1] - Brent crude oil has increased by 6.34% to $109.446 per barrel, marking a 50% rise this month, while European natural gas futures have surged nearly 30%, with a cumulative increase of 106% this month [3] - The article notes a "see-saw" effect in asset performance, where rising oil prices correlate with declines in other asset classes, including global stock markets and precious metals [1] Group 2 - In the global stock market, major Asian indices have seen declines, with the Nikkei 225 down 3.38%, KOSPI down 2.73%, and the Hang Seng Index down 2.02% [4] - European indices are also experiencing downturns, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.78% and the FTSE 100 down 1.70% [4] - The S&P 500 futures are down 0.22%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.33%, reflecting a broader trend of approximately 1.5% decline in US stock indices [4] Group 3 - Precious metals have seen significant drops, with spot silver falling over 7% at one point, and current prices for gold at $4695.82 per ounce (down 2.55%) and silver at $71.17 per ounce (down 5.56%) [6] - The article reports that COMEX silver futures have dropped 7.81%, with a peak decline exceeding 10% [6] - Other metals are also affected, with LME aluminum down 2.61% and LME copper down 2.40%, alongside declines in domestic futures for gold, silver, and other metals [8] Group 4 - Bitcoin has seen a significant drop, falling below $70,000, with a 5.4% decrease in the last 24 hours, currently priced at $70,109.9 [8] - Ethereum has also declined, dropping to $2,166.42, reflecting a 6.94% decrease in the same timeframe [8]

Market Overview - In January 2026, global funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, with China experiencing a notable decline in fund allocation[3] - The Brent crude oil price increased by 14.6%, while industrial and precious metals saw substantial gains, with LME nickel, copper, and aluminum rising over 10%[3] - The U.S. equity market attracted $44.9 billion, while non-U.S. equity markets only saw an inflow of $2.3 billion during the same period[12] Fund Flows - China’s equity market experienced an outflow of $96.2 billion in January, while the fixed income market saw a $17 billion outflow[25] - Active funds contributed $2.1 billion to the Chinese equity market, whereas passive funds saw a significant outflow of $98.2 billion[22] - The relative outflow ratios for Chinese fixed income and equity funds reached 11.0% and 7.2%, respectively, indicating a higher outflow compared to other major markets[22] Global Asset Allocation - As of December 2025, the global allocation to U.S. equities slightly decreased to 61.2%, while the allocation to Chinese equities was at a historical low of 31.5%[3] - Emerging markets reduced their allocation to Chinese equities, with the current allocation ratio at 37.7%, reflecting a downward trend[3] Risk Factors - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not accurately represent long-term trends, and potential economic downturns in Europe and the U.S. could impact market stability[3]

Market Overview - On February 2, the South Korean stock market experienced a significant drop, with the KOSPI index falling over 5%, triggering a trading halt for 5 minutes [2][4] - Global markets faced a "Black Monday" due to expectations of a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, technical adjustment pressures, and concerns over high valuations in technology stocks [2][4] Precious Metals Market - International precious metals prices saw drastic fluctuations, with gold futures dropping to $4423.2 per ounce, a decline of over 6%, and silver futures falling to $71.2 per ounce, down over 9% [2][3] - The London spot gold price hit a low of $4402.06 per ounce, marking a decline of over 10%, while silver prices fell to $71.312 per ounce, down over 16% [2] - Compared to the historical highs on January 29, silver prices dropped by 40% and gold prices by approximately 20% on February 2 [2] Oil Market - The oil market also faced significant declines, with light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange falling to $61.43 per barrel and Brent crude futures dropping to $65.45 per barrel, both down over 5% from the previous day's close [3] Stock Market Reactions - Following a strong performance in January driven by AI hype, stock markets reversed course, with investors questioning the returns on substantial investments in the tech sector [4] - The Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia also saw a significant drop, exceeding 5% in early trading on February 2 [4] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan closed down by 1.25%, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 0.85% [4] Investor Sentiment - Analysts noted that the volatility in the precious metals market has caused unease among traders, with increased margin requirements leading to forced liquidations and a domino effect across other assets [3] - The market is currently reassessing valuations amid uncertainty regarding potential monetary policy changes under Kevin Walsh, who has been nominated as the next Fed Chair [5]

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 12th to January 16th, the US December CPI year - on - year growth rate met expectations and remained the same as the previous value. Global geopolitical risks continued to impact the market. The US dollar index rose weekly. Stocks and commodities performed strongly, while the bond market declined. In terms of the US dollar, commodities > stocks > bonds. In the domestic market, the stock market was divided, and the bond market and commodities rose weekly. Commodities > bonds > stocks. Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes [5][8][19]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Major Asset Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, market sentiment was relatively cautious. Trump called for setting a 10% credit card interest rate cap starting from January 20, 2026, pressuring US stocks. Most global stock markets rose, with the Asia - Pacific region leading in gains. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose weekly. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.75% weekly and 5.62% year - to - date, while the MSCI US fell 0.38% weekly but rose 1.39% year - to - date [10][13][14]. - **Global Bond Market**: Recently, most Fed officials' statements were hawkish, cooling market expectations of interest rate cuts. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields generally rose, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 6BP to 4.24% weekly. The bond market was weak, and globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, data such as the US November retail sales month - on - month growth rate were good, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was volatile and strong. The US dollar index rose 0.23% weekly [16][17]. - **Global Commodity Market**: Geopolitical factors supported the weekly rise of international oil prices. Precious metal prices rose, while most non - ferrous metal and agricultural product prices fell. International silver prices rose significantly [17]. Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: Market risk appetite declined. Most major broad - based A - share indices rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks was weak. Computer and electronics sectors led in gains, while the military and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% weekly [20][22]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, the central bank's net open - market operations injected 111.28 billion yuan. The capital market fluctuated, and the bond market was strong weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led in gains. For example, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 9.41% weekly [24][25]. Major Asset Price Outlook - Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes. It is necessary to pay attention to their subsequent changes [4][26].

Group 1: Hot News - Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported to the US by Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland starting from February 1st, 2026, and the tariff will increase to 25% by June 1st, 2026, until an agreement on "fully and completely purchasing Greenland" is reached [3] - White House economic advisor Hasset downplayed the federal criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell, saying he expects "no problem" [3] - Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to listen to the progress of the special action to boost consumption and study measures to promote consumption [3] - US envoy Witkoff revealed that the US has sent a direct message to Iran, stating that Iran's economic situation is severe and suggesting diplomatic solutions to relevant issues [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are crude oil, tin, nickel, styrene, and rapeseed oil [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Night session performance of commodity futures: Non-metallic building materials rose 1.98%, precious metals 35.75%, oilseeds and fats 7.51%, soft commodities 2.88%, non-ferrous metals 26.49%, coal, coke, and steel ore 9.47%, energy 2.23%, chemicals 9.61%, grains 1.09%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.98% [4] Group 4: Plate Position - Changes in commodity futures plate positions in the past five days are presented in the data [5] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Performance of major asset classes: Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.33%, a monthly increase of 3.35%, and a year-to-date increase of 3.35%; other indices and assets also had corresponding changes [6] Group 6: Trends of Major Commodities - Trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc. are shown in the data [7]

Report Overview - Report Title: Macro and Commodity Weekly Report - Analyst: Wang Jing - Release Date: January 12, 2026 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the first week of 2026, the global capital market showed a positive trend. A-shares in China had a strong start, while overseas, geopolitical tensions increased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut decreased. The US dollar first rose and then fell, and the RMB remained stable and strong. Commodities performed well, with precious metals leading the way, followed by non-ferrous and black metals, energy, and agricultural products [5][10]. - The domestic bond market declined, with short-term bonds performing better than long-term bonds. The stock market had a broad-based rally, with the growth style outperforming the value style, and the CSI 500 leading the gains. All domestic commodity sectors closed higher, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 4.01% week-on-week [5]. - In the futures market, funds flowed into the commodity market, especially into non-ferrous metals, non-metallic building materials, coal, coking, and steel, oilseeds, and energy sectors. The soft commodity sector saw a significant outflow of funds. The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index continued to decline, while the volatility of the domestic Wind and Nanhua Commodity Indexes increased [6]. 3) Section Summaries Market Overview - Global capital markets were positive in the first week of 2026. A-shares in China had a strong start, while overseas, geopolitical tensions increased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut decreased. The US dollar first rose and then fell, and the RMB remained stable and strong. Commodities performed well, with precious metals leading the way, followed by non-ferrous and black metals, energy, and agricultural products [5][10]. - The domestic bond market declined, with short-term bonds performing better than long-term bonds. The stock market had a broad-based rally, with the growth style outperforming the value style, and the CSI 500 leading the gains. All domestic commodity sectors closed higher, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 4.01% week-on-week [5]. Futures Market Capital Flow - The commodity futures market saw a significant inflow of funds. The non-ferrous metals, non-metallic building materials, coal, coking, and steel, oilseeds, and energy sectors had obvious inflows, while the soft commodity sector had a significant outflow [6][19]. Futures Market Volatility - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index continued to decline, while the volatility of the domestic Wind and Nanhua Commodity Indexes increased. Most commodity futures sectors saw an increase in volatility, with the oilseeds and grain sectors seeing a significant decline, and the non-ferrous and soft commodity sectors seeing a notable increase [6][28]. Fed Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January decreased. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% was 95.4%, significantly higher than last week's 81.4%. The probability of a 25bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% dropped to 4.6%. The market still expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [6]. US Stock Market - The US stock market started strongly in 2026 but will face challenges in the coming week, including the start of the Q4 earnings season, the release of December inflation data, and increasing geopolitical uncertainties. The VIX index remained close to its 2025 low [7]. Sector Performance - In the futures market, most domestic commodity futures closed higher. The top gainers were lithium carbonate, platinum, and silver futures, while the top losers were polysilicon, container shipping index, and industrial silicon futures [24]. - In terms of market sentiment, there were few commodity futures with significant increases in both price and open interest, such as apples, aluminum, and coking coal. There were many commodity futures with significant decreases in both price and open interest, such as polysilicon, container shipping index, and peanuts [26]. Macro Logic - The domestic stock market rose across the board, with the growth style outperforming the value style. The valuation of the stock market increased, and the equity risk premium (ERP) decreased [34][35]. - The commodity price index fluctuated strongly, and the inflation expectation continued to rebound [38]. - The "fund seesaw" effect between the stock market and commodities was not significant, and the spread between domestic and international commodity futures widened [41][44]. - The US bond yield showed a differentiated trend, with the term spread slightly decreasing. The real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price reached a new high [53]. - The US high-frequency "recession indicator" declined, the Citi Economic Surprise Index turned down, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread widened significantly and then fluctuated within a narrow range [62]. Data Tracking - International commodities mostly rose, with the BDI index falling sharply, the CRB index remaining flat, soybeans and corn rising slightly, copper and oil prices increasing, and precious metals regaining their upward momentum [30]. - The asphalt开工率 decreased seasonally, real estate sales remained weak, freight rates rebounded and diverged, and short-term capital interest rates fluctuated upward [45]. - US bond yields fluctuated, the Sino-US interest rate spread remained stable, inflation expectations increased, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB remained stable and strong [60]. Economic Data - The US December non-farm payroll data was mixed. The number of non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% [72]. - China's December inflation data showed that both CPI and PPI continued to rebound. The CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing [77][78]. This Week's Focus - Monday (January 12): Swiss December consumer confidence index, Eurozone January Sentix investor confidence index, Japanese stock market closed for one day. - Tuesday (January 13): US 10-year Treasury auction, Japan's November trade balance, US December NFIB small business confidence index, US December unadjusted CPI annual rate, US December seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, US December seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, US October new home sales annualized, speeches by New York Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem. - Wednesday (January 14): US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9, US November retail sales monthly rate, US November PPI annual rate, US Q3 current account, US December existing home sales annualized, US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9, China's December trade balance, speech by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker on the economic outlook, speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman in Athens, OPEC monthly oil market report. - Thursday (January 15): UK November three-month GDP monthly rate, UK November seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, Germany's 2025 full-year GDP growth rate, Eurozone November seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, US EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending January 9, South Korea's central bank interest rate decision, Fed Beige Book, speech by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, opening speech by New York Fed President Williams at an event. - Friday (January 16): Germany's December CPI monthly rate final value, US December industrial production monthly rate, US January NAHB housing market index.

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is experiencing "jobless growth," with employment data showing a significant slowdown despite relatively high economic growth rates. In 2025, the U.S. added only 584,000 jobs, the lowest since 2003, indicating a cautious approach from companies towards hiring and layoffs [2][3] - The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan indicates a further deterioration in consumer expectations, primarily due to rising living costs, which is impacting spending in the service sector [2][3] - The concept of ALICE (Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed) highlights a growing segment of the population that, despite being employed, struggles to keep up with inflation, with 29% of households falling below this threshold [3] Group 2 - The economic landscape in 2025 is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, where stronger economies continue to thrive while weaker ones lag behind. This trend is expected to persist into 2026, with potential political ramifications in the U.S. midterm elections [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is anticipated to become more aggressive, potentially moving away from the 2% inflation target, which could lead to a reintroduction of quantitative easing if economic conditions deteriorate [5] - The stock market is likely to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by excess liquidity, but there are growing concerns about the sustainability of investments in AI infrastructure, which may face challenges if the AI bubble bursts [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas geopolitical tensions have led to increased investor risk aversion, with risk assets showing mixed performance. Global stocks and commodities mostly declined, while A - shares were volatile and differentiated. The BDI index slightly declined, the US dollar rebounded, and the RMB remained strong. Commodities were under pressure and differentiated, with internal style changes. Precious metals fell sharply, while non - ferrous metals were strong, and oil prices continued to be weak. Black - series commodities continued to rebound [6][11]. - The domestic bond market declined across the board, with near - term bonds stronger than long - term ones. The stock index was under pressure and mostly declined, with the growth - style stocks more resilient than value - style stocks, and the CSI 500 rose against the trend. Most domestic commodity sectors declined, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of - 6.87%, with 4 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 6 falling [6][16]. - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with a probability of 81.4%. The market expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][79]. - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, with improved domestic and external demand, price differentiation, and enterprises replenishing inventories [85][88]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - Overseas geopolitical tensions increased risk aversion. Risk assets were mixed, with global stocks and commodities mostly falling. A - shares were volatile and differentiated, and the BDI index slightly declined. The US dollar rebounded, the RMB remained strong, and commodities were under pressure and differentiated [6][11]. - The domestic bond market declined, the stock index was under pressure and mostly fell, and most domestic commodity sectors were weak. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of - 6.87%, with 4 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 6 falling [6][16]. - The funds in the commodity futures market flowed out significantly. The energy and soft - commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - metallic building materials, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural and sideline products sectors had significant capital outflows [7][20]. - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index slightly decreased, the domestic Wind Commodity Index had a significant increase in volatility, and the volatility of the Nanhua Commodity Index changed little. The volatility of commodity futures sectors varied, with coal, coking, steel, and ore, agricultural and sideline products, and non - metallic building materials sectors having obvious volatility decreases, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors having notable volatility increases [7][30]. - The Fed's probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 81.4%, and the market expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][79]. Large - scale Assets - Overseas geopolitical tensions led to increased risk aversion, with risk assets mixed. Global stocks and commodities mostly declined, A - shares were volatile and differentiated, the BDI index slightly declined, the US dollar rebounded, the RMB remained strong, and commodities were under pressure and differentiated [11]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market declined, the stock index was under pressure and mostly fell, and most domestic commodity sectors were weak. The growth - style stocks were more resilient than value - style stocks, and the CSI 500 rose against the trend [16]. - Most domestic commodity sectors declined, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of - 6.87%. Precious metals declined sharply, black - series commodities rebounded, non - metallic building materials rose 1.74% leading the commodities, soft commodities and grains were almost flat, and other sectors declined, with energy and chemical sectors continuing to be weak, oilseeds and oils significantly falling, non - ferrous metals continuously declining, and agricultural and sideline products sectors having the largest decline [16]. Capital Flow - Last week, the funds in the commodity futures market flowed out significantly. The energy and soft - commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - metallic building materials, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural and sideline products sectors had significant capital outflows [20]. Variety Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures declined. The top - rising commodity futures were nickel, glass, and soybeans, while the top - falling ones were platinum, palladium, and silver [25]. Fluctuation Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index slightly decreased, the domestic Wind Commodity Index had a significant increase in volatility, and the volatility of the Nanhua Commodity Index changed little. The volatility of commodity futures sectors varied, with coal, coking, steel, and ore, agricultural and sideline products, and non - metallic building materials sectors having obvious volatility decreases, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors having notable volatility increases [30]. Data Tracking - Internationally, major commodities showed mixed performance. The BDI slightly rose, the CRB was flat, soybeans, corn, and gold fell sharply, copper, silver, and oil rose, precious metals rose and then fell, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded from the bottom [33]. - The asphalt开工率 declined, real - estate sales seasonally increased, freight rates rebounded together, and short - term capital interest rates rose and then fell [54]. - US bond interest rates rebounded, the Sino - US interest rate spread declined, inflation expectations were weakly stable, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB continued to be strong [67]. Macro Logic - The stock index was under pressure and mostly declined, and the valuation and risk premium ERP changed little [36][43]. - The commodity price index fell from a high level, and inflation expectations rebounded from a low level [45]. - The US bond yield curve was steeper, with short - term yields weaker and long - term yields stronger. The term spread fluctuated narrowly, and the real interest rate and gold price fluctuated slightly [62]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" was stable, the Citi Economic Surprise Index declined, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread widened significantly and then fluctuated narrowly [69]. Relationship between Stocks and Commodities - Last week, the stock market mostly declined, commodities were volatile and differentiated, and the commodity - stock return difference changed little. Domestically - priced commodities became stronger, and internationally - priced commodities became weaker, and the internal - external commodity futures return difference fluctuated upwards [53]. Fed Interest - Rate Expectations - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with a probability of 81.4%. The probability of a 25bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remains below 20%. The market expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][79]. China's PMI Data - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.25%, up 0.7 percentage points, also returning to the expansion range. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, up 1.0 percentage point, indicating an overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and operation activities [88]. This Week's Focus - Monday (January 5): South Korean President Yoon Suk - yeol is on a state visit to China from January 4 to 7. - Tuesday (January 6): Eurozone December PMI data, US December S&P Global PMI final value, French/German December CPI, and the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas (until the 9th). - Wednesday (January 7): Eurozone December CPI, US December ADP employment figures, and US November JOLTs job openings. - Thursday (January 8): US October wholesale sales data and US October trade balance. - Friday (January 9): China's December CPI, US December non - farm payroll report, and the opening of the Silicon Valley Auto Show. [91]

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices surged by 1.63%, surpassing the $1,400 mark, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.73% [1] - Spot silver rose nearly 4%, breaking the $75 threshold [1] Group 2: Oil Market - International oil prices experienced significant volatility, shifting from decline to increase [3] - Venezuela, a key oil-producing country and OPEC member, faces production cuts due to U.S. sanctions, which may lead to a further decline in its oil output [6] - Analysts suggest that escalating geopolitical tensions could raise risk premiums and drive oil prices upward, with WTI and Brent crude potentially reaching $60 and $63 per barrel, respectively [6] Group 3: Asian Stock Markets - Asian stock markets opened higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising over 2.6% and South Korea's Composite Index increasing by more than 2% [4] - The A-share market also saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component up by 0.80%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.84% [4] - Notable sectors included commercial aerospace, military stocks, brain-computer interface concepts, and oil and gas stocks showing strong performance [4]

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing a complex scenario as it approaches the last trading week of 2025, with gold and silver prices significantly retreating from record highs while global stock markets enter a calm "holiday mode" after reaching historical peaks [1][3] - Gold prices peaked at $4,550 per ounce, and silver surged approximately 150% to a high of $84 during the year, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks [1][3] - Recent pullbacks in gold to around $4,360 and silver to approximately $74.50 are interpreted as healthy profit-taking, suggesting a correction that removes excessive speculation and sets a healthier outlook for future market trends [3][5] Group 2 - Global stock markets have shown relative calm despite significant gains in 2025, with the Seoul Composite Index rising over 75% and the Nikkei 225 increasing by over 26%, while Asian markets exhibit mixed performance on the last trading day [5][6] - The key drivers for the stock market's performance, particularly in technology stocks, include the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in the latter half of the year and substantial investments in artificial intelligence, although concerns about a "tech bubble" persist [5][6] - The oil market is influenced by geopolitical dynamics, with international oil prices rising over 2% due to renewed hopes for peace talks in Ukraine, while the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is adjusting after reaching a high of $126,000, now hovering below $90,000, indicating a shift towards rational investor sentiment [6][7] Group 3 - The overall sentiment in the global market during the end of 2025 is characterized by a phase of "weighing" and "waiting," with technical corrections in precious metals, a calm stock market, and expectations in the oil market, all contributing to the trading mindset [7] - Investors are looking forward to the upcoming Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes for clues on potential rate cuts in January 2026, which could serve as a significant indicator for the market's direction in the new year [7]