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金属期权策略早报-20250708
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 10:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall metal market shows different trends, with non - ferrous metals fluctuating and falling, black metals consolidating in a range, and precious metals such as gold consolidating at a high level and then weakly falling. Corresponding option strategies are proposed for different metal sectors [2]. - For non - ferrous metals, options strategies such as constructing bull spreads, selling volatility, and spot hedging are recommended according to the market conditions of each metal [8][9][10][11]. - For precious metals, strategies like constructing short - volatility option seller portfolios and spot hedging are suggested [12]. - For black metals, strategies such as selling option combinations and spot hedging or covering are put forward based on different metal products [13][14][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts. For example, the price of copper futures (CU2508) is 79,390, down 120 (-0.15%); the price of aluminum futures (AL2508) is 20,490, down 10 (-0.05%) [3]. 3.2. Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: It is used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.75, and the open interest PCR is 0.68 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The pressure and support levels of each metal option underlying are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of copper is 92,000, and the support level is 78,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of each metal option is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 11.05%, and the weighted implied volatility is 16.41%, down 0.87 [6]. 3.3. Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Directional strategy: construct a bull spread of call options; volatility strategy: construct a short - volatility option seller portfolio; spot long - hedging strategy: hold spot long + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Directional strategy: use a bull spread of call options; volatility strategy: construct a short - call + put option portfolio; spot long - hedging strategy: construct a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc/Lead**: Directional strategy: none; volatility strategy: construct a short - neutral call + put option portfolio; spot long - hedging strategy: construct a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Directional strategy: none; volatility strategy: construct a short - bearish call + put option portfolio; spot long - hedging strategy: hold spot long + buy put options [10]. - **Tin**: Directional strategy: none; volatility strategy: construct a short - volatility strategy; spot long - hedging strategy: construct a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Directional strategy: none; volatility strategy: construct a short - neutral call + put option portfolio; spot long - covering strategy: hold spot long + sell call options [11]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold/Silver**: Directional strategy: none; volatility strategy: construct a short - bullish short - volatility option seller portfolio; spot hedging strategy: hold spot long + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [12]. - **Black Metals** - **Rebar**: Directional strategy: none; volatility strategy: construct a short - neutral call + put option portfolio; spot long - covering strategy: hold spot long + sell call options [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Directional strategy: none; volatility strategy: construct a short - bullish call + put option portfolio; spot long - hedging strategy: construct a long collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: Directional strategy: none; volatility strategy: construct a short - volatility strategy; spot hedging strategy: none for manganese silicon [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Directional strategy: none; volatility strategy: construct a short - neutral call + put option portfolio; spot covering strategy: hold spot long + sell call options [14]. - **Glass**: Directional strategy: none; volatility strategy: construct a short - volatility call + put option portfolio; spot long - hedging strategy: construct a long collar strategy [15].
金属期权策略早报-20250624
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 05:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. For each sector, specific options strategies are recommended based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factors, etc. [2][7] - Non - ferrous metals are in a mostly long - biased consolidation phase, and short - volatility strategies are recommended; black metals are in a range - bound consolidation, suitable for bear - spread combinations and seller option combinations; precious metals, with gold in high - level consolidation and silver breaking through upwards, suggest bull - spread combinations and spot hedging strategies. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts are presented, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2508) is 78,280, with a price increase of 150 and a trading volume of 4.15 million lots. [3] 3.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various metal options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, the open interest PCR of copper options is 0.96, with a change of - 0.00. [4] 3.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various metal options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of copper options is 92,000, and the support level is 70,000. [5] 3.4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various metal options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 10.80%. [6] 3.5. Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: The copper market shows a high - level range - bound shock. Directional strategies suggest building a bull - spread combination of call options; volatility strategies recommend a short - volatility seller option combination; and a spot long - hedging strategy is also proposed. [8] - **Aluminum/Alumina Options**: The aluminum market is in a long - biased upward trend. Directional strategies involve a bull - spread combination of call options; volatility strategies recommend selling a combination of long - biased call and put options; and a spot collar strategy is recommended. [9] - **Zinc/Lead Options**: The zinc market is in a wide - range shock. Volatility strategies suggest selling a neutral combination of call and put options; a spot collar strategy is also provided. [9] - **Nickel Options**: The nickel market is in a weak trend. Directional strategies recommend building a bear - spread combination of put options; volatility strategies suggest selling a short - biased combination of call and put options; and a spot long - hedging strategy is proposed. [10] - **Tin Options**: The tin market is in a range - bound shock after a rebound. Volatility strategies recommend a short - volatility strategy; a spot collar strategy is also recommended. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: The lithium carbonate market is in a weak trend. Directional strategies suggest building a bear - spread combination of put options; volatility strategies recommend selling a short - biased combination of call and put options; and a spot covered - call strategy is proposed. [12] 3.5.2. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver Options**: The gold market is in a high - level consolidation. Volatility strategies recommend building a long - biased short - volatility option seller combination; a spot hedging strategy is also provided. [13] 3.5.3. Black Metals - **Rebar Options**: The rebar market is in a weak trend. Volatility strategies suggest selling a short - biased combination of call and put options; a spot covered - call strategy is proposed. [14] - **Iron Ore Options**: The iron ore market is in a range - bound shock with a rebound. Volatility strategies recommend selling a neutral combination of call and put options; a spot collar strategy is recommended. [14] - **Ferroalloy Options**: The manganese silicon market is in a weak trend with a rebound. Directional strategies recommend building a bear - spread combination of put options; volatility strategies recommend a short - volatility strategy. [15] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Options**: The industrial silicon market is in a weak trend. Volatility strategies suggest selling a short - biased combination of call and put options; a spot covered - call strategy is proposed. [15] - **Glass Options**: The glass market is in a weak trend. Directional strategies recommend building a bear - spread combination of put options; volatility strategies recommend a short - volatility strategy; and a spot collar strategy is recommended. [16]