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中国四地光伏利用率跌破90%,局地弃电抬头如何解
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-02-06 13:36
Core Viewpoint - The decline in renewable energy utilization rates below 95% for the first time during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is attributed to a combination of market clearing, system safety constraints, and rapid industry development, rather than a failure of renewable energy policies [4] Group 1: Renewable Energy Utilization Rates - In 2025, the overall utilization rates for wind and solar power in China remained high at over 94%, but for the first time, the annual utilization rate fell below 95%, with wind utilization at 94.3% and solar utilization at 94.8% [1] - Specific provinces such as Qinghai, Tibet, Xinjiang, and Gansu saw solar utilization rates drop below 90%, with Tibet having the lowest at 64.9%, while wind utilization in Tibet was also the lowest at 68.6% [1] Group 2: Installed Capacity Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the annual new installed capacity for wind and solar power in China is expected to remain at a high level, exceeding 430 million kilowatts in 2025, with cumulative installed capacity surpassing 1.8 billion kilowatts, a 2.4-fold increase from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The proportion of renewable energy in total installed capacity increased from 25.7% at the end of 2020 to 48.5% by the end of 2025 [2] Group 3: Challenges in Energy Consumption - The increasing randomness, volatility, and intermittency of renewable energy generation are leading to heightened pressure on the power system for consumption [2] - The phenomenon of "curtailment" is showing clear seasonal and time-based concentration, with over 70% of curtailment occurring during peak solar hours from 10 AM to 5 PM, and two-thirds of curtailment happening in spring and autumn [2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association forecasts a year-on-year decline of 23.8%-42.9% in new solar installations for 2026, with consumption difficulties being a core constraint [3] - Industry experts suggest that addressing consumption challenges through system-side optimization and developing new business models is essential, although the potential for increasing consumption capacity through traditional methods is limited and may raise system costs significantly [3] - New scenarios for renewable energy utilization, such as green electricity direct connection and zero-carbon parks, are seen as promising avenues for improving overall project profitability [3]