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Software stock bulls are still making a lethal assumption
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-17 13:57
Core Viewpoint - The software industry, particularly companies like Workday and Salesforce, is facing significant challenges due to advancements in AI, which are impacting stock prices and future earnings estimates [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Earnings Estimates - Software stocks, as represented by the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), have declined by 24% over the past three months, yet two-year forward earnings estimates for these stocks have increased by 5% [3]. - Despite the decline in stock prices, Wall Street analysts have been slow to adjust their earnings estimates for software companies, which raises concerns about the accuracy of these projections [2][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analyst Perspectives - Analysts on Wall Street are typically optimistic, but the current situation with software stocks is seen as bordering on nonsensical, given the stark contrast between falling stock prices and rising earnings estimates [3]. - Tim Urbanowicz from Innovator Capital Management highlighted that software companies have seen a significant sell-off, with price-to-earnings (PE) multiples dropping from around 35 to below 20, indicating a major market shift due to AI disruption [5]. Group 3: Future Implications - The ongoing decline in software stock prices suggests a potential negative outlook for the industry as AI continues to evolve and disrupt traditional business models [4]. - Urbanowicz warned that the market may not recover as optimistically as some investors hope, indicating a need for caution and preparedness for further disruptions across various industries [6].