Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) are dominant players in the air freight and cargo industry, with market capitalizations of $81.4 billion and $63.1 billion respectively [1][2] UPS Overview - UPS has been facing prolonged revenue weakness due to geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation affecting consumer sentiment [3] - U.S. average daily volumes have declined year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to a planned reduction of Amazon shipments and a strategic decrease in lower-margin e-commerce volumes [4][5] - In Q3 2025, UPS' International segment operating profit fell 12.8% to $691 million, with margins contracting from 18% to 14.8% [6] - The expiration of the De Minimis exemption on August 29 has negatively impacted international trade volumes, particularly in the China-U.S. trade lane, which saw a 27.1% decline [6][7] - UPS announced a 0.6% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.64 per share, raising concerns about the sustainability of this dividend given its high payout ratio of 87% [8][10] - Free cash flow has been declining, with only $2.7 billion generated in the first nine months of 2025, while over $4 billion was paid in dividends [10] FedEx Overview - FedEx is also experiencing demand weakness but is implementing cost-cutting measures under the DRIVE initiative, which is expected to yield annual savings of $2.2 billion for fiscal 2025 [12][13] - FedEx raised its quarterly dividend by 5.1% to $1.45 per share and repurchased $3 billion in shares in fiscal 2025, returning a total of $4.3 billion to shareholders [14] - For fiscal 2026, FedEx anticipates revenue growth of 4-6% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share expected between $17.20 and $19 [15] - FedEx exited Q1 fiscal 2026 with cash and cash equivalents of $5.1 billion against a debt of $16.5 billion, resulting in a favorable debt-to-capital ratio of 43.2% [17] - FedEx issued bullish guidance for Q2 fiscal 2026, projecting adjusted EPS to exceed the previous year's value of $4.05 [18] Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, UPS shares have declined over 29%, while FedEx shares have performed better, declining in single digits [19] - UPS is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.91X, while FedEx's forward sales multiple is at 0.67X, indicating that UPS shares are more expensive [23] - FedEx is expected to grow earnings at a rate of 10.1% over the next five years, compared to UPS's projected growth rate of 6.6% [25] - FedEx's lower financial leverage and favorable debt-to-capital ratio suggest a stronger financial position compared to UPS [26]

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) has completed the acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group for $1.6 billion (C$2.2 billion), providing shareholders with C$55.00 per share in cash [1] - The acquisition enhances UPS' position in healthcare logistics, allowing for improved transit times and quality assurance for UPS Healthcare customers [2] - UPS reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 earnings, with earnings per share of $1.74 and revenues of $21.4 billion, although both figures declined year over year [3][4] Financial Performance - UPS' earnings per share of $1.74 exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.31 but showed a 1.1% decline year over year [4] - Revenues of $21.4 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.8 billion but decreased by 3.7% year over year [4] - Management projects fourth-quarter revenues of approximately $24 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 11-11.5% [5] Capital Allocation - Estimated capital expenditures are around $3.5 billion, with dividend payments expected to be approximately $5.5 billion and completed share repurchases of around $1 billion [6] Volume Challenges - Despite strong earnings, UPS faces low shipment volumes, particularly in the U.S., where average daily volumes declined year over year due to reduced Amazon shipments and lower-margin e-commerce volumes [8][9] - The international segment's operating profit declined by 12.8% to $691 million, with margins contracting to 14.8% from 18% a year ago, impacted by global trade challenges [10][11] Stock Performance - UPS shares have declined over 25% year to date, underperforming compared to the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry's 17.9% decline [13] - UPS is currently considered relatively undervalued, trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.9X, lower than the industry average [16] Investment Outlook - While UPS' valuation appears attractive and the Andlauer Healthcare acquisition is a positive move, near-term risks such as tariff-related uncertainties and volume challenges may outweigh the positives [17] - Holding onto UPS stock is seen as prudent, with potential investors advised to wait for a more favorable entry point [19]

分组1 - UPS reported quarterly earnings of $1.74 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.31 per share, but down from $1.76 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +32.82% [1] - The company posted revenues of $21.42 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.78%, but down from $22.25 billion year-over-year [2] - UPS has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters and has topped consensus revenue estimates three times as well [2] 分组2 - UPS shares have declined approximately 29.3% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 16.9% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.04 on revenues of $23.74 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.46 on revenues of $87.44 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo is currently in the bottom 10% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential underperformance compared to higher-ranked industries [8]

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to report a significant decline in earnings for Q3 2025, with an estimated earnings per share (EPS) of $1.31, reflecting a 25.6% decrease year-over-year [1][7] - Revenue estimates for the same quarter are projected at $20.84 billion, indicating a 6.3% decline from the previous year [2] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has been revised downward by 5 cents over the past 60 days, with a current estimate of $1.31 [1] - The trend of estimate revisions shows a decrease of 3.68% for Q1, 1.45% for Q2, 1.22% for EJ, and 1.62% for F2 over the last 60 days [2] Operational Challenges - UPS is facing challenges due to geopolitical uncertainties, high inflation, and tariff issues, which are expected to negatively impact shipping volumes [4][7] - Labor costs are anticipated to be high, prompting UPS to implement cost-cutting measures, including offering buyouts to delivery drivers for the first time in its history [5] Customer Relations and Business Strategy - UPS has agreed to reduce business with its largest customer, Amazon, by over 50% by June 2026, as Amazon was not deemed a profitable customer [6] - The expiration of the De Minimis exemption has led to customs bottlenecks, causing UPS to discard some shipments [8][9] Market Position and Stock Performance - UPS shares have declined over 30% year-to-date, underperforming compared to the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry's 22.4% decline [13] - The company's current Zacks Rank is 4 (Sell), indicating a challenging outlook for the near term [11] Valuation and Future Outlook - UPS shares are trading at a discount based on the forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S) ratio compared to the industry average, although rival FedEx is cheaper [17][18] - The decline in shipping demand and the recent failure of the Estafeta deal represent setbacks for UPS, impacting its expansion efforts [21][22] - Despite the challenges, UPS has the brand and network to generate steady cash flows in the long run, making it a compelling long-term investment [24]

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) shares have shown a consistent downward trend, currently trading near a 52-week low of $82, with a closing price of $83.18 as of October 13 [1] - Year-to-date, UPS shares have declined by 34%, underperforming the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry's decline of 27.5%, and lagging behind competitors FedEx and GXO Logistics [2][9] Factors Hurting UPS Stock - The expiration of the De Minimis exemption on August 29 has led to shipment backlogs and customer complaints, as UPS has reportedly discarded some international shipments due to customs bottlenecks [6] - Concerns about dividend sustainability have arisen due to UPS's high dividend payout ratio of 87%, which raises questions about its ability to maintain dividends in the long term [7][10] - A significant decline in shipping demand has negatively impacted UPS, with average daily volumes down 3.8% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, and revenues decreasing by 2.7% year-over-year in the June quarter [11] Earnings Estimate Revisions - In the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPS's earnings for the third and fourth quarters of 2025, as well as for the full years 2025 and 2026, has been revised downward [12] Valuation Insights - UPS is currently considered relatively undervalued, trading at a forward 12-month price to sales (P/S) ratio of 0.8X, which is lower than the industry average but slightly higher than FedEx and GXO Logistics [13] Current Outlook - Despite UPS's attractive valuation, ongoing revenue challenges and doubts regarding dividend sustainability present significant headwinds [16] - The current situation of package backlogs is detrimental to customer satisfaction, leading to a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for UPS, indicating it may be a stock to avoid [17]

Core Insights - FedEx Corporation (FDX) is currently viewed as an attractive investment opportunity due to its low valuation, with a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.61X, which is below the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry average, the S&P 500, and its competitor United Parcel Service (UPS) [1] Financial Performance - FedEx reported better-than-expected earnings per share and revenues for Q1 of fiscal 2026, driven by cost-cutting measures and strong domestic delivery performance [5] - The company faced a $150 million headwind from the global trade environment and a $130 million headwind from the expiration of a contract with the U.S. Postal Service, yet domestic average daily volumes increased by 5% [7] - Total freight revenues declined by 8% year-over-year, with U.S. freight revenues dropping significantly by 47% [8] - FedEx anticipates revenue growth of 4-6% year-over-year for fiscal 2026, with adjusted earnings per share projected between $17.2 and $19 [8] Stock Performance - Despite the earnings beat, FedEx shares have declined in double digits year-to-date, underperforming compared to GXO Logistics, which has gained over 25% this year [12] - Over the past year, FedEx shares have decreased by 10%, while UPS and GXO Logistics have seen declines of 35.1% and 6.2%, respectively [15] Shareholder Initiatives - FedEx has raised its quarterly dividend by 5.1% to $1.45 per share and repurchased $3 billion worth of shares in fiscal 2025, returning a total of $4.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [16] Challenges Ahead - The company is facing challenges such as weak international package volumes and economic uncertainty due to tariffs, with expectations of a $1 billion headwind in fiscal 2026 [17]

Group 1: Acquisition and Strategic Impact - United Parcel Service (UPS) has announced the withdrawal from the acquisition of Mexican firm Estafeta due to the inability to meet closing conditions, which was initially aimed at enhancing trade opportunities in Mexico and beyond [1][2] - The deal was part of UPS' "Better and Bolder" strategy to become a leading international small package and logistics provider, with expectations to close by the end of 2024 [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - UPS is experiencing revenue weakness attributed to geopolitical uncertainty, higher inflation, and a decline in package volumes, leading to a 3.8% year-over-year decrease in average daily volumes in the first half of 2025 [4][5] - The company reported a 2.7% year-over-year revenue decline in the June quarter of 2025 and has refrained from providing revenue or operating profit guidance for 2025 [5][10] Group 3: Cost-Cutting Measures - In response to high labor costs and declining volumes, UPS is implementing cost-cutting measures, including offering buyouts to delivery drivers for the first time in its history and aiming to reduce its workforce by 20,000, approximately 4% of its global workforce [6][7] - UPS has also agreed to reduce business with its largest customer, Amazon, by more than 50% by June 2026, as Amazon was not considered a profitable customer [8] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - UPS shares have declined over 30% year-to-date, underperforming compared to the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry's 26.1% decline [9][10] - The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPS' 2025 adjusted earnings is $6.50 per share, reflecting a 15.8% year-over-year decline, with revenue estimates suggesting a 3.9% decline from 2024 [12] Group 5: Dividend Concerns - Despite an attractive valuation with a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.81X, concerns arise regarding UPS' ability to sustain its dividend due to an elevated payout ratio of 87% and insufficient free cash flow to cover dividend payments in the first half of 2025 [13][17] - The company generated $742 million in free cash flow while paying out $2.7 billion in dividends during the same period [17]

Core Insights - FedEx Corporation reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $3.83, exceeding estimates and showcasing a +4.93% earnings surprise [2][6] - The company's revenue for the quarter ending August 2025 was $22.2 billion, surpassing estimates and reflecting a nearly 3% year-over-year increase [3][6] - FedEx reinstated its full-year outlook, anticipating revenue growth of 4% to 6% for the fiscal year [4][6] Financial Performance - EPS of $3.83 surpassed the estimated $3.61 and improved from $3.60 reported in the same quarter last year [2][6] - Revenue of $22.2 billion exceeded the estimated $21.65 billion and was a 2.15% increase over the Zacks Consensus Estimate [3][6] - The company has consistently exceeded consensus revenue estimates in three of the last four quarters [3] Strategic Initiatives - FedEx is on track to cut costs by $1 billion by fiscal 2026 and plans to spin off its freight business by next June [5][6] - The company has a P/E ratio of approximately 13.17 and a price-to-sales ratio of about 0.61, indicating strong market valuation [5] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, FedEx shares surged over 5% in after-hours trading [4]

Core Insights - FedEx Corporation (FDX) is scheduled to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on September 18, 2025, after market close [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $3.68 per share, reflecting a 2.2% increase from the previous year, while revenues are expected to be $21.8 billion, indicating a 0.8% increase [2] Earnings Performance - FDX has a mixed earnings surprise history, with an average surprise of -5.53% across recent quarters [3][4] - The company is expected to face challenges in average daily shipments due to weak demand and tariff-related tensions [5] Segment Analysis - The Express unit, FDX's largest segment, is anticipated to experience volume weakness, although revenues may increase slightly compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2025 [6] - Cost-reduction initiatives from the DRIVE program are expected to aid bottom-line performance, despite a marginal increase in adjusted operating expenses [7] Strategic Developments - An update on FDX's multi-year deal with Amazon is anticipated, which involves delivering select large packages for the e-commerce giant [7][8] - The FDX-Amazon deal comes after rival UPS decided to lower its volumes with Amazon, indicating a strategic shift in partnerships [9] Market Position - FDX shares have outperformed the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry, increasing by 5.9% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, compared to a 3.2% decline in the industry [12] - FDX is trading at a discount based on forward Price/Sales (P/S) ratios compared to the industry average and UPS, with a Value Score of A [14] Long-term Outlook - Despite current challenges, FDX has a long-term earnings growth rate of 10.4%, higher than the industry average of 9.5% [19] - The company has raised its quarterly dividend by 5.1% to $1.45 per share, indicating a commitment to rewarding shareholders [18] Investment Considerations - Current market conditions and uncertainties suggest that it may not be the best time to purchase additional shares of FDX [19][20] - Investors are advised to wait for management's commentary on tariffs and updated guidance before making investment decisions [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry is facing significant challenges due to ongoing supply-chain disruptions, high inflation, and weaker demand, leading to reduced package volumes [1][4]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises companies providing air delivery and freight services, with many offering specialized transportation and logistics solutions. The health of these companies is closely tied to the overall economy, with major players like FedEx transporting millions of packages daily [3]. Key Trends - **Economic Uncertainty & Tariff Concerns**: The industry is affected by market volatility and tariff uncertainties, particularly with China, which may lead to higher costs and dampen consumer spending [4]. - **Demand Slowdown**: A decline in shipping demand, especially in Asia and Europe, is negatively impacting key players like UPS and FedEx, leading to withheld earnings and revenue forecasts [5]. - **Strong Financial Returns for Shareholders**: Companies are increasing dividends and buybacks to reward shareholders, indicating financial strength. UPS raised its quarterly dividend to $1.64 per share, while FedEx increased its dividend by 5.1% to $1.45 [6]. Industry Performance - The Zacks Air Freight and Cargo industry ranks 202, placing it in the bottom 18% of 245 Zacks industries, indicating poor near-term prospects [7][8]. - The industry has underperformed the S&P 500, decreasing by 26.5% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's increase of 17.7% [9]. Current Valuation - The industry is currently trading at an enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 7.97X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 17.45X and the sector's 9.37X [12]. Stocks to Watch - **FedEx (FDX)**: The company is focused on rewarding shareholders through dividends and buybacks, with a solid liquidity position and cost-cutting efforts driving its bottom line. FDX has surpassed earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters [16][17]. - **GXO Logistics (GXO)**: The company is enhancing its logistics capabilities, benefiting from increased e-commerce and automation. GXO has consistently surpassed earnings estimates, with shares rising 9.7% over the past year [19].