Key Takeaways UPS topped Q4 earnings and revenue estimates, but both metrics declined YoY amid weaker shipment demand.UPS' international unit saw profit and margin declines amid trade policy shifts and lower volumes.UPS plans to cut Amazon volumes, eliminate up to 30,000 jobs and close facilities to boost profitability.Late last month, Atlanta-based United Parcel Service (UPS) released impressive fourth-quarter 2025 results, wherein both earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The ques ...

Core Viewpoint - FedEx shares experienced a significant rally of 5.4%, closing at $353.43, attributed to higher trading volume and a 12.7% gain over the past four weeks [1][2]. Company Performance - FedEx is expected to report quarterly earnings of $4.06 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 10%, while revenues are projected to be $23.46 billion, marking a 5.9% increase from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate for FedEx has been revised 0.9% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive trend that may lead to price appreciation [4]. Analyst Upgrades - An analyst from Robert W. Baird & Co. upgraded FedEx to Outperform with a target price of $427, citing attractive valuation and strong growth prospects ahead of the planned spinoff of FedEx Freight [2]. Industry Context - FedEx operates within the Zacks Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry, where GXO Logistics, another player, closed 0.5% higher at $57.22 and has returned 4.1% over the past month [5]. - GXO Logistics' consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 3.2% over the past month to $0.83, representing a year-over-year decline of 17% [6].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Transportation-Air Freight and Cargo industry is facing ongoing supply-chain disruptions and a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by high inflation and interest rates, leading to a decline in package volumes [1][6] - Companies in this industry provide air delivery and freight services, with many offering specialized transportation and logistics solutions, directly correlating their performance with the overall health of the economy [3] Key Trends - Despite challenges, there are growth opportunities for companies focusing on operational efficiency and cost-cutting measures, with firms like UPS, FedEx, and GXO Logistics capitalizing on these trends [2] - The industry is prioritizing shareholder returns, with companies increasing dividends and buybacks to enhance shareholder value; FedEx announced a 5.1% increase in its quarterly dividend for 2025 [4] - Cost-cutting initiatives are crucial as the industry faces elevated inflation levels, particularly in labor, freight, and fuel costs; FedEx reported better-than-expected results in Q2 of fiscal 2026 due to these efforts [5] Demand and E-commerce - A slowdown in shipping demand, especially in Asia and Europe, is a significant concern, with geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation negatively impacting consumer sentiment [6] - E-commerce continues to be a strong growth driver, supported by the convenience of online shopping and the ongoing digital transformation, despite a slowdown from pandemic peak levels [7] Industry Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Air Freight and Cargo industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 97, placing it in the top 40% of 244 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [8] - The industry's earnings estimate for 2026 has increased by 1.5% since November 2025, reflecting growing analyst confidence in earnings growth potential [9] - Over the past year, the industry has underperformed the S&P 500, declining by 6.3% compared to the S&P 500's growth of 14.9% [11] - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 9.8X, lower than the S&P 500's 18.8X and the sector's 10.79X [14] Company Highlights - UPS is recognized for its shareholder-friendly activities, including dividends and buybacks, and has shown strong free cash flow generation, supporting its bottom line and e-commerce demand [17][18] - FedEx is noted for its solid liquidity position and cost-cutting measures, with earnings surpassing consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters [21] - GXO Logistics has consistently exceeded earnings estimates, benefiting from increased e-commerce and logistics capabilities, with shares rising by 26% over the past year [23][26]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to report a decline in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenues for the fourth quarter of 2025, with projected EPS of $2.23 and revenues of $24.01 billion, reflecting year-over-year decreases of 18.9% and 5.1% respectively [1][2][8] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPS' revenues in 2025 is $88.05 billion, indicating a 3.3% year-over-year decline, while the EPS estimate for 2025 is $6.98, representing a decline of approximately 9.6% [2][4] - In the trailing four quarters, UPS has beaten earnings estimates three times, with an average surprise of 11.2% [4] Earnings Predictions - UPS has an Earnings ESP of +0.58% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a potential earnings beat for the fourth quarter [5] - The company is expected to see total operating revenues decline by 5.4% year-over-year in the December quarter, with consolidated volumes projected to drop by 10.6% [6] Operational Factors - UPS is implementing a $1 billion cost-saving plan and focusing on small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) to offset weak shipment trends and reduced volumes from Amazon [8][9][10] - The expiration of the De Minimis exemption is anticipated to negatively impact international segment volumes, particularly affecting the China-U.S. trade lane [7] Market Position - UPS shares have decreased by over 19% in the past year, underperforming both its industry and rival FedEx, which has shown better price performance [12] - UPS is trading at a discount based on the forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S) ratio compared to the industry average, with FedEx being cheaper [14] Strategic Focus - The company is shifting its focus towards higher-margin areas such as SMBs and healthcare logistics, which contributed 32.8% to total U.S. volume in the September quarter, reflecting a 340-basis point year-over-year improvement [11] - UPS is also enhancing automation in sorting and operations and leveraging AI for logistics planning to improve efficiency [9] Long-term Outlook - Despite current challenges, UPS has the brand and network to generate steady cash flows in the long run, making it a compelling long-term player in the transportation sector [20]

Valuation and Performance - United Parcel Service (UPS) shares are trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.03X, which is a discount compared to the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry [1][3] - UPS has experienced a stock price decline of over 17% in the past year, while the industry has seen a decline of 5.6% [4] - The company has a Value Score of B, while rival FedEx has a Value Score of A [1] Revenue and Volume Challenges - UPS is facing significant challenges due to low shipment volumes, which have been attributed to a reduction in Amazon shipments and weak e-commerce traffic [6][8] - U.S. average daily volumes have declined year over year, with a forecasted drop of 10.6% in consolidated volumes for the fourth quarter of 2025 [10][9] - The expiration of the De Minimis exemption on August 29, 2025, is expected to negatively impact international markets and divert volumes away from the China-U.S. trade lane [13] International Segment Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, UPS's operating profit in the International segment fell by 12.8% to $691 million, with margins narrowing to 14.8% from 18% in the prior year [11] - Trade headwinds have particularly affected shipment volumes in Asia, with a 27.1% decline in trade volumes on the China-U.S. route [11][12] Strategic Acquisitions and Dividends - UPS completed the acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group for $1.6 billion, enhancing its capabilities in healthcare logistics [14][15] - The company maintains a strong dividend yield of 6.1%, above the industry average of 4.1%, reflecting management's confidence in cash flow generation [16] - UPS has raised its dividend five times over the past five years, indicating a strong record of annual dividend growth [17] Share Repurchase and Financial Strength - UPS has authorized a $5 billion buyback program, with $500 million worth of shares repurchased in 2024 and a target of $1 billion for 2025 already fulfilled [18] - The company generated $6.3 billion in free cash flow in 2024, demonstrating financial strength and the ability to return value to investors [19] Investment Outlook - UPS presents a mixed risk-reward scenario, with valuation discounts making it an appealing long-term opportunity, but near-term challenges such as revenue softness and rising labor costs may pressure investor sentiment [20] - Current shareholders may benefit from holding the stock, while prospective investors might wait for clearer signs of operational improvement before investing [21]

Valuation and Market Position - United Parcel Service (UPS) is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.97X, which is below the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry and the S&P 500, indicating an attractive valuation [1][10] - UPS has a Value Score of B, while its competitor FedEx has a Value Score of A, suggesting that UPS is undervalued compared to its peers [1] Acquisition and Growth Potential - UPS finalized its acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group for $1.6 billion (C$2.2 billion), enhancing its capabilities in the healthcare logistics sector [4][5] - The acquisition is expected to improve UPS Healthcare's service offerings, including reduced transit times and better visibility, which could attract more customers [5] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - UPS has a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders, with a current dividend yield of 6.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of 4.4% [6][10] - The company has increased its dividend five times over the past five years, indicating a solid history of dividend growth and confidence in cash flow generation [7] - UPS plans to distribute $5.5 billion in dividends in the current year, reflecting its robust financial health [7] Share Buyback Program - UPS has approved a share repurchase authorization of $5 billion for 2023, with $1 billion already completed, demonstrating its commitment to enhancing shareholder value [8][10] - The company reported $6.3 billion in free cash flow for 2024, supporting its buyback and dividend initiatives [8] Earnings Performance - UPS has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the past four quarters, with an average earnings beat of 11.2% [11] Challenges and Market Conditions - UPS is facing challenges from weak shipment volumes, particularly due to a planned reduction in Amazon shipments and a pullback from lower-margin e-commerce traffic [12][13] - The company's international segment reported a 12.8% decline in operating profit, with margins narrowing due to global trade pressures, particularly in Asia [14][15] - The expiration of the De Minimis exemption is expected to negatively impact international markets, further straining UPS's performance [16] Stock Performance - UPS shares have declined over 21% in the past year, underperforming its industry, which saw a 12.5% decline [10][17]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx Corporation (FDX) is expected to report its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on December 18, with earnings per share estimated at $4.05 and revenues at $22.9 billion, reflecting a year-over-year revenue increase of 4.1% [1][2][8] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 1.5% over the past 60 days, with the current estimate matching the year-ago actual [2] - The earnings per share estimate has shown a consistent upward trend, increasing from $3.99 to $4.05 over the last 60 days [3] Performance Drivers - FDX's results are anticipated to benefit from high package volumes due to increased demand during the holiday shipping season, with management expecting a moderately strong peak season [5] - Cost-reduction initiatives from the DRIVE program, including reduced flight frequencies and staff cuts, are expected to support margins in the fiscal second quarter [6] Strategic Developments - An update on FDX's multi-year deal with Amazon, which involves delivering select large packages, is expected, especially following UPS's decision to lower its volumes with Amazon [7] - FDX's stock has outperformed UPS and the broader transportation industry in Q2, trading at a discount on a forward Price/Sales basis [11][14] Investment Appeal - FDX's strong earnings history and cost control measures are seen as positive indicators for investment, with management targeting $1 billion in transformation-related savings [19][20] - The company has raised its quarterly dividend by 5.1% to $1.45 per share, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [18]

Core Insights - FedEx is positioned to potentially continue its earnings-beat streak in the upcoming report, particularly within the Zacks Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry [1] - The company has a history of beating earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 3.65% over the last two quarters [1] Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, FedEx achieved earnings of $3.83 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.65 per share, resulting in a surprise of 4.93% [2] - In the previous quarter, FedEx was expected to post earnings of $5.93 per share but delivered $6.07 per share, yielding a surprise of 2.36% [2] Earnings Estimates - Recent estimates for FedEx have been trending upward, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [4] - The current Earnings ESP for FedEx is +1.19%, reflecting increased analyst optimism regarding its near-term earnings potential [7] Zacks Rank and Predictive Power - FedEx holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), which, when combined with the positive Earnings ESP, suggests a high probability of another earnings beat [7] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have historically produced a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [5] Upcoming Earnings Report - FedEx's next earnings report is anticipated to be released on December 18, 2025 [7]

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) are dominant players in the air freight and cargo industry, with market capitalizations of $81.4 billion and $63.1 billion respectively [1][2] UPS Overview - UPS has been facing prolonged revenue weakness due to geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation affecting consumer sentiment [3] - U.S. average daily volumes have declined year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to a planned reduction of Amazon shipments and a strategic decrease in lower-margin e-commerce volumes [4][5] - In Q3 2025, UPS' International segment operating profit fell 12.8% to $691 million, with margins contracting from 18% to 14.8% [6] - The expiration of the De Minimis exemption on August 29 has negatively impacted international trade volumes, particularly in the China-U.S. trade lane, which saw a 27.1% decline [6][7] - UPS announced a 0.6% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.64 per share, raising concerns about the sustainability of this dividend given its high payout ratio of 87% [8][10] - Free cash flow has been declining, with only $2.7 billion generated in the first nine months of 2025, while over $4 billion was paid in dividends [10] FedEx Overview - FedEx is also experiencing demand weakness but is implementing cost-cutting measures under the DRIVE initiative, which is expected to yield annual savings of $2.2 billion for fiscal 2025 [12][13] - FedEx raised its quarterly dividend by 5.1% to $1.45 per share and repurchased $3 billion in shares in fiscal 2025, returning a total of $4.3 billion to shareholders [14] - For fiscal 2026, FedEx anticipates revenue growth of 4-6% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share expected between $17.20 and $19 [15] - FedEx exited Q1 fiscal 2026 with cash and cash equivalents of $5.1 billion against a debt of $16.5 billion, resulting in a favorable debt-to-capital ratio of 43.2% [17] - FedEx issued bullish guidance for Q2 fiscal 2026, projecting adjusted EPS to exceed the previous year's value of $4.05 [18] Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, UPS shares have declined over 29%, while FedEx shares have performed better, declining in single digits [19] - UPS is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.91X, while FedEx's forward sales multiple is at 0.67X, indicating that UPS shares are more expensive [23] - FedEx is expected to grow earnings at a rate of 10.1% over the next five years, compared to UPS's projected growth rate of 6.6% [25] - FedEx's lower financial leverage and favorable debt-to-capital ratio suggest a stronger financial position compared to UPS [26]

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) has completed the acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group for $1.6 billion (C$2.2 billion), providing shareholders with C$55.00 per share in cash [1] - The acquisition enhances UPS' position in healthcare logistics, allowing for improved transit times and quality assurance for UPS Healthcare customers [2] - UPS reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 earnings, with earnings per share of $1.74 and revenues of $21.4 billion, although both figures declined year over year [3][4] Financial Performance - UPS' earnings per share of $1.74 exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.31 but showed a 1.1% decline year over year [4] - Revenues of $21.4 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.8 billion but decreased by 3.7% year over year [4] - Management projects fourth-quarter revenues of approximately $24 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 11-11.5% [5] Capital Allocation - Estimated capital expenditures are around $3.5 billion, with dividend payments expected to be approximately $5.5 billion and completed share repurchases of around $1 billion [6] Volume Challenges - Despite strong earnings, UPS faces low shipment volumes, particularly in the U.S., where average daily volumes declined year over year due to reduced Amazon shipments and lower-margin e-commerce volumes [8][9] - The international segment's operating profit declined by 12.8% to $691 million, with margins contracting to 14.8% from 18% a year ago, impacted by global trade challenges [10][11] Stock Performance - UPS shares have declined over 25% year to date, underperforming compared to the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry's 17.9% decline [13] - UPS is currently considered relatively undervalued, trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.9X, lower than the industry average [16] Investment Outlook - While UPS' valuation appears attractive and the Andlauer Healthcare acquisition is a positive move, near-term risks such as tariff-related uncertainties and volume challenges may outweigh the positives [17] - Holding onto UPS stock is seen as prudent, with potential investors advised to wait for a more favorable entry point [19]