There are often few surprises with Jerome Powell. At his handful of public appearances each month, the US Federal Reserve chair always sports the same softly stern expression. His voice, typically dispassionate and near-monotone, never wavers.As one of the most powerful officials in the world, commanding a platform that has the ability to move global markets with a few words, Powell is often reserved in a way that fails to yield soundbites in this social media era: boring, even.That changed on Sunday night. ...

Don’t martyr Jay Powell. He was a terrible Fed chairman, but he’s not a criminal. Over his tenure, he consistently missed the Fed’s inflation targets with the worst price hikes in 40 years. He was the most political Fed chairman in memory.  Raising rates to stop President Trump’s tax cut boom back in the first term, lowering rates to reelect Vice President Harris and the Democrats in the last election — totally political. A whole bunch of his Fed cronies face accusations of insider trading, or breaches of e ...

A simmering feud between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve reached a boiling point this weekend as the administration opened a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell. What began as a disagreement over interest rate policy has evolved into an unprecedented confrontation, posing the greatest challenge of Powell’s eight-year leadership of the Federal Reserve.The dispute has now reached Capitol Hill, where congressional Republicans — including some close allies of the Trump administratio ...

A coterie of former Federal Reserve chairs, Treasury secretaries, and prominent economists spoke out Monday in support of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and expressed alarm over the Justice Department's threat of a criminal prosecution at the central bank. “The reported criminal inquiry into Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is an unprecedented attempt to use prosecutorial attacks to undermine [the Fed's] independence,” said the statement signed by former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan, ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Sunday the Department of Justice has served the central bank with subpoenas and threatened it with a criminal indictment over his testimony this summer about the Fed's building renovations.The move represents an unprecedented escalation in President Donald Trump's battle with the Fed, an independent agency he has repeatedly attacked for not cutting its key interest rate as sharply as he prefers. The renewed fight will likely rattle financial markets Monday and could ...

By Scott Murdoch, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Rae Wee SINGAPORE/LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - A U.S. Justice Department investigation at the Federal Reserve and a combative response by chair Jerome Powell have sharply raised the stakes in a long-running dispute that has put the independence of the world's most powerful central bank openly on the line, investors said. In a strongly worded statement ​on Sunday, Powell disclosed a probe that threatened him with criminal indictment over a building renovation project ...

For the central bank to lower interest rates again, officials will likely need to see more notable signs that unemployment is rising. ...

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said the central bank should move more aggressively on interest rates this year, arguing that rate reductions totaling more than 100 basis points are justified as underlying inflation pressures continue to fade. In an interview with Maria Bartiromo on FOX Business’ "Mornings with Maria," Miran said inflation is already running close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target once temporary measurement distortions are stripped out. He said current policy remains clearly restric ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is entering 2026 facing significant political and policy challenges, including a new chair and a mixed economic environment that will complicate decision-making for policymakers [1][2] Economic Outlook - Following three consecutive interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a cautious approach in 2026, with additional cuts likely being limited due to expectations of solid economic growth and persistent inflation pressures [2] - The year 2026 is anticipated to continue the extraordinary upheaval experienced in the previous year regarding the Federal Reserve [2] Political Context - President Donald Trump has previously threatened to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not implementing interest rate cuts quickly enough, and there have been controversies surrounding the Fed, including cost overruns on a renovation project [4][5] - The potential removal of Governor Lisa Cook has also been a point of contention, with unproven allegations of mortgage fraud complicating the political landscape [5] Upcoming Events - A Supreme Court hearing is scheduled for January 21, 2026, to determine Trump's authority to remove Cook, followed by an interest rate vote by the Federal Open Market Committee [6] - Trump is expected to announce his choice for Fed chair in January, while Powell must decide whether to continue serving on the Board of Governors until January 2028 [6] Internal Dynamics - Recent rate votes have seen multiple dissents, and new regional presidents joining the Federal Open Market Committee are expected to have a hawkish stance, likely resisting further rate cuts [7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet experienced significant year-end liquidity shifts, with the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) spiking to $75 billion before falling back, and Overnight Reverse Repos (ON RRPs) reaching $106 billion before also declining [1][14][15] Group 1: Standing Repo Facility (SRF) - The SRF saw a one-day uptake of $75 billion on December 31, which increased the Fed's total assets temporarily [6][7] - By January 2, the SRF balance fell back to $23 billion, with expectations that it will approach zero in the following week [6][7] - The SRF allows approved counterparties, primarily large broker-dealers and banks, to borrow overnight at a rate of 3.75%, enabling them to profit from lending in the repo market [11][12] Group 2: Overnight Reverse Repos (ON RRPs) - ON RRP balances spiked to $106 billion on December 31, reflecting a significant influx of funds from money markets depositing at the Fed [14] - By January 2, ON RRP balances dropped to just $6 billion, indicating a rapid unwinding of year-end liquidity [14] Group 3: Treasury Bills and Balance Sheet Management - The Fed added $38 billion in short-term Treasury bills in December, with $15 billion replacing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that came off the balance sheet [2][19] - The Fed's strategy aims to shift its balance sheet composition towards shorter-term securities, with T-bills expected to grow while MBS are phased out [18][23] - The Fed's total assets rose by $104 billion to $6.64 trillion, largely due to the SRF spike and Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) [27] Group 4: Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) - MBS holdings fell by $15 billion in December to $2.04 trillion, with the Fed's plan to continue reducing MBS until they are eliminated [23][24] - The decline in MBS is primarily due to reduced pass-through principal payments as mortgage refinancing and sales have decreased significantly [24][25]