This week's market focus will be on US economic news. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to fall -11,000 to 225,000. Also, Nov CPI is expected to be +3.1% y/y, and Nov core CPI is expected to be +3.0% y/y. On Friday, Nov existing home sales are expected to be up +1.2% m/m to 4.15 million. Also, the University of Michigan Dec consumer sentiment index is expected to be revised upward by +0.2 to 53.5 from the previously reported 53.3.US MBA weekly mortgage applications fell -3.8% in t ...

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Retail Sector - Black Friday retail sales reached a record $11.8 billion in online spending, an increase of 11.8% year-over-year, with expectations for Cyber Monday to surpass this figure at $14.2 billion [2][4] - Macy's is expected to report a quarterly loss of 14 cents per share, a significant decline of 450% compared to the previous year [4] - Analysts are optimistic about retail performance, noting a potential shift in consumer spending dynamics and the impact of credit card debt on future sales [16][19] Technology Sector - Salesforce is set to announce its Q3 results, with expectations of solid growth and steady demand, although profitability may see only minor changes [6] - The acquisition of Informatica is projected to boost Salesforce's revenue by approximately $1.7 billion over the next year, but increased spending on AI products may affect profit margins [7] - Crowdstrike's Q3 results are anticipated to benefit from heightened demand for cybersecurity products due to rising global threat incidents [5] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, trading below $87,000, with a drop of over 5% recently, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment among investors [9][10] - The slowdown in inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and a downgrade of the USDT stablecoin's stability rating have contributed to the negative sentiment in the crypto market [10][11] - The People's Bank of China's warning about the risks associated with virtual currencies has further exacerbated the selloff in cryptocurrencies [11] Economic Indicators - The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), is expected to remain steady at 0.3% for total PCE and 2% for core PCE on a month-over-month basis [8] - Auto sales data for November is anticipated to show a slight increase to 15.4 million, indicating stable consumer demand for new vehicles [8] Market Outlook - Predictions for the S&P 500 in 2026 range from 7,500 to 8,000 points, with expectations of robust earnings and growing valuations, although concerns about inflation and the job market persist [53][55] - The healthcare sector is seeing increased inflows as investors shift away from large-cap tech, with strong performance noted in drug and medical device companies [40][41]

Supply Chain - Nvidia Blackwell 晶圆在美国生产后仍需运往台湾进行 CoWoS 封装才能完成 [1] - 美国若能在两年后开始先进封装，则进度已超预期 [1]

Market Performance - The Dow gained 587 points (+1.29%), the S&P 500 added 102 points (+1.56%), the Nasdaq rose 490 points (+2.21%), and the Russell 2000 increased by 66 points (+2.79%) following a significant sell-off on Friday [1] AI and Quantum Computing Stocks - Investors looking for entry points into AI and Big Tech drove quantum computing stocks higher, with Rigetti (RGTI) up 25% and D-Wave (QBTS) up 23% [2] - Shares of U.S. Antimony (UAMY) and Critical Metals (CRML) surged by 36.8% and 55.4%, respectively, due to ongoing discussions about rare earth minerals [2] Broadcom and OpenAI Partnership - Broadcom (AVGO) entered a deal with OpenAI to produce approximately 10 gigawatts of custom chips valued at around $10 billion, resulting in a 9.9% increase in Broadcom's shares [3] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Major banks are set to report Q3 earnings, with JPMorgan expected to see a 10.5% growth in earnings and 5.2% in revenues, Citigroup anticipated to post 21.2% earnings growth and 3.7% revenue growth, and Wells Fargo projecting 2% earnings growth and 4% revenue growth [4] - Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (BLK) will also release their quarterly earnings reports, along with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Domino's Pizza (DPZ) [5]

Market Overview - The ongoing US government shutdown is impacting market sentiment and delaying key economic reports, with estimates suggesting that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed, potentially raising the unemployment rate to 4.7% [2] - Stock indexes are experiencing gains, driven by strength in semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks, with optimism surrounding growth in the AI sector contributing to bullish sentiment [4][5] - Rising corporate earnings expectations are noted, with over 22% of S&P 500 companies providing guidance for Q3 earnings that are expected to exceed analysts' expectations, although Q3 profits are projected to rise by only 7.2%, the smallest increase in two years [7] Gold and Precious Metals - Gold prices have surged above $4,000 an ounce, reaching a new record high, which has positively influenced gold mining stocks, with companies like Anglogold Ashanti Plc and Coeur Mining seeing gains of over 2% [1][13] Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - The market is anticipating a 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting scheduled for October 28-29, influenced by the ongoing government shutdown and its potential economic repercussions [8][9] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to 6.43%, down from 6.46% the previous week, indicating a slight easing in mortgage costs [3] Corporate Developments - Notable stock movements include Dell Technologies and Advanced Micro Devices, which have seen increases of over 4% and 3% respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment towards tech stocks [12] - Confluent is reportedly exploring a sale after receiving acquisition interest, leading to an increase of over 11% in its stock price [14]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market aims to support the financing of technology innovation through various measures, encouraging long-term investments in hard technology and fostering a comprehensive financial ecosystem for innovation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market in China has surpassed 180 trillion yuan, making it the second-largest globally, with the introduction of technology innovation bonds seen as a significant market innovation [3]. - The first batch of technology innovation bonds has a registered issuance scale of 210 billion yuan, with 36 enterprises announcing their issuance [3][4]. Group 2: Issuance Details - Among the 36 enterprises, 22 are technology companies, including 9 private enterprises and 13 public companies, with an expected issuance scale of 150 billion yuan [4]. - 14 private equity investment institutions are also involved, with an expected issuance scale of 60 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Funding Utilization - The funds raised through technology innovation bonds can be flexibly used for R&D, project construction, and mergers and acquisitions, thereby stimulating innovation [9][10]. - Specific sectors benefiting from these funds include artificial intelligence, chip manufacturing, high-end equipment manufacturing, and biomedicine [10]. Group 4: Risk Mitigation Measures - Various risk-sharing mechanisms are being implemented to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds, including collaboration with local governments and market-based credit enhancement institutions [8][9]. - More than ten issuers have already adopted diversified credit enhancement measures to mitigate risks associated with bond issuance [9].