Interest Rate Outlook - Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed caution regarding lower interest rates, following a rate-cutting stance from two fellow Fed governors earlier in the week [2][3] - The federal funds rate has been relatively high, ranging from 3.13% to 5.38% between September 2022 and September 2024, as the Fed attempts to control inflation [4] Market Reaction - Stock prices fell, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both declining by 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreating by 0.4% [3] - Stock futures for major indices are slightly down ahead of the market open [5] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims for the week of September 20 are expected to rise to 235,000 from 231,000 in the prior week [6] - Existing home sales are projected to decrease to 3.96 million in August from 4.01 million in July [6] - Corporate earnings reports are anticipated, with Costco expected to report EPS of $5.81 for the August quarter, up from $5.29 in the prior year [6] and Accenture's consensus EPS estimate at $2.98, up from $2.66 [6] Company Earnings Expectations - CarMax is expected to report EPS of $1.03 for the August quarter, an increase from $0.85 in the same period last year [7]

Core Insights - Costco operates a unique business model that requires customers to pay a membership fee for access, which significantly impacts its revenue structure and customer loyalty [1][3] - The membership renewal rate is a critical metric for Costco, typically around 90%, providing a stable annuity-like income stream [4][8] - Despite generating approximately $63.2 billion in total revenue in the fiscal third quarter of 2025, only about $1.2 billion, or less than 2%, came from membership fees [5] Revenue and Cost Structure - Membership fees contribute significantly to Costco's gross profit, accounting for around half of it, despite being a small portion of total revenue [8] - The cost of goods sold in the same quarter was nearly $55 billion, with additional operational costs of approximately $5.7 billion, leading to a gross profit of about $2.5 billion [7] - Membership fees have minimal associated costs, allowing them to flow directly into gross profit, enhancing the overall profitability of the company [6][8] Business Strategy and Customer Focus - Costco's membership model allows for lower margins on product sales, which helps maintain customer satisfaction and loyalty [9] - The company emphasizes strong employee relations to ensure high levels of customer service, reinforcing its focus on customer happiness as a means to drive membership renewals [10]

Core Viewpoint - Costco's stock is currently overvalued despite its strong business performance, making Coca-Cola and PepsiCo more attractive investment options for income and value-focused investors [4][14]. Group 1: Costco - Costco operates on a membership model, providing a reliable revenue stream with a high member renewal rate of approximately 90% [2]. - The company is experiencing growth through new store openings and increased customer spending, but its stock valuation is high with P/S, P/E, and P/B ratios above five-year averages [4]. - The dividend yield for Costco is low at around 0.6%, which is disappointing for income-focused investors [5][4]. Group 2: Coca-Cola - Coca-Cola has shown strong performance with a 5% growth in organic revenues in the second quarter, appealing to consumers despite inflation concerns [6][7]. - The stock is reasonably priced with P/S, P/E, and P/B ratios at or slightly below five-year averages, and a dividend yield of 3% [8]. - Coca-Cola is considered a better value than Costco due to its strong business performance and reasonable stock valuation [8][14]. Group 3: PepsiCo - PepsiCo's stock is undervalued with P/S, P/E, and P/B ratios significantly below five-year averages, and a dividend yield of approximately 4% [10]. - The company reported a lower organic sales growth of 2.1% in the second quarter compared to Coca-Cola, indicating underperformance [11]. - PepsiCo is a diversified business with a history of dividend growth, and recent acquisitions may help it regain momentum [12][13].

Business Model - Costco operates as a club store, requiring customers to pay a membership fee to shop, which significantly alters the retail dynamic [1] - Membership fees generated nearly $1.2 billion in revenue, contributing over half of Costco's operating income of approximately $2.2 billion in the fiscal first quarter of 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - In the fiscal first quarter, Costco's top line grew by 7.5%, with same-store sales increasing by 5.2% [5] - Earnings per share rose to $4.04, up from $3.58 in the same quarter of the previous year, indicating strong performance [5] - Store traffic increased by 5.1%, suggesting that membership fee-paying customers are returning to make more purchases [5] Membership Retention - Costco maintains a high member retention rate of over 90%, indicating effective customer satisfaction strategies [3] - The company leverages its membership fees to offer competitive pricing, enhancing customer loyalty [3] Valuation Concerns - Costco's stock is currently within 5% of its all-time highs, leading to a lower dividend yield and suggesting an expensive valuation [7] - Traditional valuation metrics, such as price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios, are above their five-year averages, indicating a steep price [8] - Historical analysis shows that Costco's valuation ratios are near the highest levels in the company's history, suggesting the stock is historically expensive [9] Investment Outlook - Despite Costco's strong business fundamentals, the current stock price may not present a good investment opportunity [9] - The stock has experienced significant drawdowns in the past, indicating potential future price declines that could create a buying opportunity [10]