Core Viewpoint - Hershey faces significant challenges due to rising cocoa prices and supply shortages, leading to a stock decline of over 40% in the past two years, but there are reasons for optimism regarding its future performance [1][4][12] Group 1: Challenges Faced by Hershey - Cocoa prices have surged from below $2,000 per metric ton in fall 2022 to around $10,000 per metric ton currently, significantly impacting margins [4][5] - The majority of cocoa is produced in countries like Ivory Coast, where crop yields have been affected by disease and adverse weather, contributing to the price increase [5] - Hershey's candy sales in North America accounted for 82% of its revenue in Q1 2025, but net sales fell 14% to $2.8 billion during the same period [5][6] Group 2: Reasons for Optimism - Hershey projects a net sales gain of at least 2% for 2025, indicating customer loyalty despite high cocoa prices [8] - The top three cocoa producers reported a 20% increase in supply this season, providing some relief to Hershey [8] - Hershey has maintained a dividend of $5.48 per share, with a 3.4% yield, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 1.3%, and has increased its dividend for 15 consecutive years [9][10] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Despite challenges, Hershey generated over $1.9 billion in free cash flow in 2024, allowing it to sustain its dividend payments [10] - The stock trades at 20 times earnings, below its five-year average P/E ratio of 25, suggesting potential for recovery as cocoa shortages ease [11]

Core Insights - The Hershey Company is experiencing increased investor interest ahead of its Q1 2025 earnings release, despite a 14% decline in stock price over the past year [1][2][3] - Investors are potentially shifting focus from cost pressures to Hershey's strong brand portfolio and strategic evolution, which may provide defensive positioning and growth potential [2][3] Financial Performance - Hershey's management has guided for a significant drop in Adjusted EPS for fiscal year 2025, projected to decline in the mid-30% range due to rising cocoa prices [5] - Cocoa futures have recently retreated by as much as 30% from record highs, indicating a potential easing of cost pressures [6][7] Business Strategy - Hershey is diversifying its product offerings beyond confectionery, with successful salty snack brands and a pending acquisition of LesserEvil, which aligns with consumer trends towards healthier snacks [9][10] - The company is expected to achieve at least 2% net sales growth in fiscal 2025, reflecting strong brand loyalty and effective pricing strategies [8] Operational Efficiency - Hershey's "Advancing Agility & Automation Initiative" is projected to deliver approximately $125 million in savings during 2025, aiding in cost management and funding for innovation [12] - The company maintains a strong dividend yield of 3.28%, supported by a 15-year track record of annual dividend increases [11][13] Market Positioning - The stock price decline from its 2023 peak may present an entry point for investors seeking quality in a defensive sector [16] - The upcoming Q1 2025 earnings report is crucial, with investors looking for updates on volume performance, margin management, and cocoa cost outlook [15][16] Investment Consideration - Hershey offers a combination of defensive stability and growth potential, making it a compelling option for investors amid easing cost pressures and ongoing strategic initiatives [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The Hershey Company is currently facing significant challenges, but these challenges may present a unique investment opportunity for long-term investors due to its historical performance and dividend reliability [1][5][11]. Company Overview - The Hershey Company (HSY) is a leading confectioner and snack maker, known for its chocolate products, including the Hershey brand and Reese's [2]. - The company has a history of growth through both organic means and acquisitions, recently expanding into salty snacks by acquiring companies like Dot's Pretzels [2]. Dividend Performance - Hershey has increased its dividend for 15 consecutive years, with an average annual increase of 10% over the past decade [3]. - The current dividend yield is approximately 3.2%, which is at the high end of its historical range, making it attractive for long-term dividend investors [4]. Current Challenges - Hershey's stock has lost over one-third of its value since its peak in 2023, primarily due to skyrocketing cocoa prices and projected declines in adjusted earnings of 30% to 40% by 2025 [5]. - The rise of new weight loss drugs may also reduce demand for sweets and snacks, adding to the company's challenges [6]. Positive Outlook - The Hershey Trust controls 79% of the voting rights and has a vested interest in maintaining a reliable and growing dividend, which may support conservative management practices [7]. - The company is expected to manage high cocoa prices by implementing price hikes and cutting costs, with the potential for market adjustments over time [8]. - Despite a 2% volume decline in 2024, there was a 6% increase in the final quarter, indicating resilience against the impact of weight loss drugs [9]. Investment Perspective - Investing in Hershey stock is seen as a contrarian play, requiring recognition of the company's challenges and belief in its ability to survive them [11]. - Successfully navigating cocoa price disruptions could lead to improved business fortunes and a higher valuation on Wall Street [12].

Core Insights - The Hershey Company has appointed Tiffany Menyhart as Chief Customer Officer, effective March 17, 2025, to lead the U.S. Confection sales team [1][2] - Menyhart brings 30 years of sales and consumer packaged goods experience, with 15 years specifically in the confectionery sector, and has a strong track record in driving profitable growth and transforming retail partnerships [2][3] - The company aims to enhance its position as a leading snacking powerhouse under Menyhart's leadership, focusing on meeting the evolving needs of retail partners and consumers [2][3] Company Overview - The Hershey Company is recognized as an industry leader in snacks, generating over $11.2 billion in annual revenues from more than 90 brand names across approximately 80 countries [3] - The company employs over 20,000 individuals globally, committed to delivering high-quality products and maintaining ethical and sustainable operations [3][4] - Hershey has a long-standing commitment to social responsibility, including educational initiatives through the Milton Hershey School, established in 1909 [4]