Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the corporate credit cycle, suggesting a shift in momentum with increased M&A and LBO activity, although it starts from a benign point [5][9]. Core Insights - US consumer spending growth is slowing but remains solid, supported by elevated net worth and asset growth outpacing liabilities [43]. - The credit cycle is gaining momentum with busy issuance in both investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) markets, with September IG issuance reaching $227 billion, significantly above seasonal averages [6][43]. - Delinquencies are rising in subprime credit while stabilizing in prime credit, indicating a bifurcation in credit quality [43][23]. Summary by Sections Corporate Credit - The credit cycle is moving up a gear with significant M&A and LBO announcements, although current activity levels are below historical trends [5][9]. - High-yield issuance in September exceeded $55 billion, marking it as the third-largest month on record [7][8]. - Defaults remain elevated despite tighter spreads, with a trailing 12-month default rate for high-yield loans at 4.2% [12][11]. Securitized Credit - There is a notable divergence in delinquency rates between prime and subprime segments, with prime delinquencies stabilizing while subprime delinquencies are on the rise [43][23]. - Transition rates do not indicate further deterioration in credit quality, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [28]. Economic Overview - Real personal consumption expenditure growth is slowing, but remains robust, particularly among high-income cohorts whose net worth is significantly higher [34][43]. - Labor income growth has decelerated, which may impact real spending in the future [38][43].

Dave Ramsey is often unapologetic when it comes to the credit industry. In last year’s talk about his signature “7 Baby Steps,” the personal finance expert made one thing unmistakable: you don’t need a credit card, a car lease, or a high credit score to build wealth. Why Your Credit Score Doesn’t Mean You’re Winning To Ramsey, the FICO score is not a badge of financial health, but a reflection of how much someone has interacted with debt. “The FICO score mathematically is an ‘I love debt’ score,” he said. ...

Group 1 - The public markets are near all-time targets, with spreads compressed and more aggressive terms observed in private credit investments, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [1][2] - Macro data suggests an easing cycle, indicating that while the economy is weak, it is not excessively so, providing a foundation for continued investment [2][3] - The U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience, with growth also observed in Europe, the Middle East, and Japan, supporting the case for investment [3] Group 2 - Despite tight credit conditions, macro fundamentals suggest that credit investments remain attractive, particularly in the context of energy transition and AI [4] - Investment opportunities in energy infrastructure are compelling due to the high demand for power from data centers, which are contracted with investment-grade counterparties [4][5] - The structures of these investments are highly resilient, making them a safer option for credit investors [5]

Hey Scott. Yeah, it's the private credit side of the business that has seen a real sentiment shift. Apollo, Aries, Blue Owl, and KKR seeing significant declines week to date.While those more exposed to private equity think TPG and Carile, they've held up okay. Two high-profile bankruptcies in the auto finance space leading to a broad-based selloff in the publicly traded alternatives firms. and First Brands bankruptcies, each within the last few weeks, have shed a new light on the risks of overlever and subp ...

Oil Prices have tumbled of late, helping to keep inflation at bay. (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images)Getty ImagesKey TakeawaysMarkets Rally Despite Shutdown Fears As Fed Rate Cuts AnticipatedFICO Surges On Direct Access Plan, Hurting Credit RivalsAI Partnerships Boost Chip Stocks As Traders Brace For VolatilityNormally, this would be a date we would all prepare are positions and gather round so we could react to the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the previous month employment situation a ...

Golub sold a collateralized loan obligation with longer lock-in periods as insurers seek longer-term private credit assets https://t.co/AjnMV71wJh ...

Group 1 - The article highlights growing concerns that a buoyant market may be hiding signs of excess, leading to potential instability [1] - Sudden bankruptcies are causing unease among investors, indicating underlying vulnerabilities in the market [1] Group 2 - The current market conditions are characterized by high valuations and speculative behavior, raising alarms about sustainability [1] - Investors are increasingly cautious as they observe these bankruptcies, which may signal broader economic issues [1]

Lotfi Karoui, chief credit strategist at Goldman Sachs, and Sonali Pier, portfolio manager of multi-sector credit at PIMCO, talk about potential hotspots in the credit market after financial distress was revealed for such companies as Tricolor Holdings and First Brands. They talk to Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu on "Bloomberg Real Yield". ...

Australia’s private credit sector must improve standards around valuations, governance and liquidity to align with global practices, an industry watchdog said. https://t.co/DRoYkjAzlj ...

VONNIE: BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD STARTS RIGHT NOW. THE FEDERAL RESERVE CUTS RATES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR TRIGGERING A JUMP IN BOND YIELDS ACROSS THE CURVE AS SOME INVESTORS EXPECTED A MORE DOVISH OUTLOOK. CREDIT SPREADS TIGHTEN EVEN FURTHER, NOW SITTING AT THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1998.WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE, THE FED MAKES ITS MOVE. >> THIS IS A FED THAT LOCKED ARMS. >> 25 BASIS POINTS WILL NOT SOLVE WHAT AILS THE ECONOMY.>> IT DOES NOT FORESHADOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN GOING FORWARD. >> THE FED HAS A SPLIT ...