By most measures the stock should be soaring. Revenue grew 35% year over year to $265 million during its final quarter of fiscal 2025, and the company swung to a profit of $18.6 million. Nevertheless, as of 12:35 p.m. ET Wednesday, shares of credit-scoring platform Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST) are down 13.5%. What gives? Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks » The earnings miss com ...

PayPal - PayPal is projected to achieve record-breaking revenue of $33.3 billion in the current fiscal year and is on track to match its previous profit peak by fiscal 2025 [1] - Despite market concerns regarding competition and cryptocurrency, PayPal maintains a strong share of the global online payment market, holding just under 50% [7] - Analysts forecast continued growth for PayPal, predicting revenue of $41 billion and net income of $5.8 billion by 2028 [8] - The current stock valuation is less than 10 times the projected per-share profit of $5.79, indicating significant upside potential as it is 24% below analysts' average price target of $73.94 [9] SoFi Technologies - SoFi Technologies has seen substantial growth, increasing its customer base from 704,000 in early 2019 to over 12.6 million currently [3] - The company is positioned well within the digital banking sector, appealing to a digitally native audience of 260 million adults in the U.S. [2] - Despite its growth, SoFi's existing customers typically engage with less than two types of accounts or products, suggesting room for expansion [2] Upstart - Upstart utilizes an AI algorithm for credit scoring, resulting in 43% more loan approvals without additional defaults, and over 90% of its approvals are fully automated [11] - The company has processed more than double the number of loans in the first three quarters of last year, with loan conversion rates improving from 15.3% to 21.2% [13] - Upstart's stock has experienced volatility since its 2020 public offering, reflecting its adaptive algorithm responding to economic conditions [12]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes a fundamentals-based approach to value investing, challenging the notion that low multiple stocks are inherently cheap [1] - The focus is on identifying companies with long-term durability, steady growth, and strong balance sheets, rather than just low valuations [1] - It acknowledges the risks of overpaying for successful companies but suggests that in certain cases, the potential for growth can outweigh immediate price concerns [1] Company Analysis - Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) was previously upgraded to a buy rating due to its platform strategy and pricing power in Scores [1] - The analysis indicates a belief in the company's long-term growth potential and resilience against market cyclicality [1] Investment Strategy - The article advocates for a strategy that prioritizes companies with robust fundamentals over those merely appearing cheap based on multiples [1] - It highlights the importance of valuation in investment decisions, particularly in the context of companies with significant growth opportunities [1]

Core Insights - FICO stock is currently trading within a historical support zone, which has previously led to significant rebounds, averaging a peak gain of 22.8% after testing this level [2][4] Company Overview - Fair Isaac is recognized for creating the FICO credit score, a standard in assessing consumer credit risk, and develops analytics and fraud-detection software for various industries [3] Market Conditions - The global credit scoring market is experiencing growth due to AI integration and digital lending, although FICO faces challenges from high valuations and increased competition [4] Financial Performance - FICO reported impressive Q4 FY25 earnings and solid FY26 guidance, driven by its Scores segment and the adoption of FICO Score 10T [4] - Revenue growth for FICO is at 15.9% for the last twelve months (LTM) and an average of 13.1% over the last three years [10] - The company has a free cash flow margin of nearly 37.1% and an operating margin of 47.0% LTM [10] Valuation Metrics - FICO stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 54.9, indicating high valuation pressure despite growth potential [10]

Core Insights - Fair Isaac, commonly known as FICO, is recognized as the most predictive and inclusive credit-scoring model in the market according to their latest earnings call [1] Company Overview - FICO has established itself as a leader in the credit-scoring industry, emphasizing the predictive capabilities of its model [1] Market Position - The company’s credit-scoring model is noted for its inclusivity, which may provide a competitive advantage in the financial services sector [1]

Investopedia / Photo Illustration by Alice Morgan / Getty Images Consumers are having a harder time keeping up with debt payments. KEY TAKEAWAYS Delinquency rates grew in September, hitting levels not seen since before the COVID-19 pandemic. Many consumers were able to manage their debt during the pandemic, as spending slowed and stimulus checks provided some aid. However, with tariffs pushing up costs and stimulus money gone, many consumers are having trouble making on-time payments. With the era ...

Core Thesis - Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is viewed positively due to its entrenched position in the U.S. financial system, driven by decades of innovation and strategic partnerships, particularly with major credit bureaus [2][3] Company Overview - FICO, founded in 1956, revolutionized credit scoring by introducing data-driven models, which replaced subjective lending judgments [2] - The company solidified its dominance in the mid-1990s when FICO scores became mandatory for mortgage purchases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, creating a durable moat in the market [3] Financial Performance - In fiscal 2024, FICO reported revenues of $1.72 billion, with the Scores segment generating $920 million and the Software segment contributing $798 million [4] - The Scores business benefits from significant pricing power, with fees projected to increase from $0.50–$0.60 in 2022 to $4.95 in 2025 [4] - The Software segment, particularly the cloud-based FICO Platform, saw a 31% growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), indicating strong adoption of its analytics and decision-making tools [4] Market Position and Challenges - Despite strong fundamentals, FICO shares have declined by 37% from their all-time high due to increased competition from VantageScore, fee increases, and high valuation pressures [5] - The current market sentiment raises questions about valuation and near-term investment risks, positioning FICO as a high-quality business facing temporary headwinds [6] Investment Perspective - The bullish thesis on FICO remains intact, emphasizing its dominant market position and strong pricing power, despite a 22.41% depreciation in stock price since previous coverage [7]

Core Viewpoint - Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) experienced significant stock volatility, initially rising over 15% before a nearly 10% sell-off, primarily due to competitive pressures in the mortgage credit scoring market [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Reaction - The launch of Fair Isaac's Mortgage Direct License Program allows lenders to access credit scores directly from FICO, bypassing traditional credit bureaus [2][4]. - The subsequent drop in FICO's stock was influenced by Equifax's introduction of a similar product targeting mortgage lenders, leading to investor confusion [2][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Fair Isaac's Mortgage Direct License reduces reliance on intermediaries, lowering costs and enhancing lender control over borrower risk assessment [4]. - Despite Equifax's competitive move, FICO maintains a strong market position, with 85% to 90% market share in mortgage credit scoring, reinforcing its pricing power and institutional trust [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - FICO boasts an over 80% gross profit margin, significantly higher than Equifax's 56%, indicating stronger earnings power and customer relationships [8][9]. - The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 66.3x, reflecting market confidence in FICO's sustainable advantages compared to Equifax's 46.9x [11]. Group 4: Analyst Sentiment and Institutional Support - Analysts maintain a consensus price target of $2,130 for FICO, suggesting a 25.7% upside potential from current levels, with some analysts projecting targets as high as $2,400 [10][12]. - There were $2.5 billion in institutional inflows into Fair Isaac stock last quarter, indicating strong investor interest and confidence [13]. Group 5: Long-Term Outlook - The recent stock dip is viewed as a short-term reaction to competition rather than a fundamental issue, positioning FICO for potential recovery and growth [14]. - The current market conditions present a buying opportunity for investors looking to acquire a company with a strong competitive moat at a discounted price [14].

Market Overview - U.S. equities are experiencing another record-setting day, driven primarily by strong performance in tech stocks [2][7] - The S&P 500 is in record territory, with a gain of approximately 39 points, while the Nasdaq composite has seen a significant increase of over 300 points [7][8] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed nearly unchanged, while the Russell 2000 gained about 1% [8] Federal Reserve Insights - There is ongoing uncertainty regarding inflation risks, with the Federal Reserve discussing potential upside to inflation and its implications for interest rates [4][5] - The market appears to be largely unconcerned about inflation pressures for the time being, focusing instead on tech stocks [5] Sector Performance - The tech sector is outperforming, with a notable increase of 1.5%, while industrials also had a strong day [9][10] - Financials were the biggest decliners, with expectations for upcoming big bank earnings [10] Notable Stock Movements - AST Space Mobile shares rose by 8% after signing an agreement with Verizon for direct cellular connectivity [12] - AMD shares increased by 11% following news of a significant investment from Nvidia into OpenAI for data center development [13] - Beauty brand Road, associated with Hailey Bieber, saw a 3% increase in shares due to a price target lift from Morgan Stanley [14] Decliners - FICO shares fell due to competitive pressure from Equifax's new credit scoring service [16] - Warner Brothers shares declined amid reports of acquisition discussions involving Paramount Skydance and Legendary Entertainment [18] Other Noteworthy News - Poly Market's CEO Shane Kaplan became the youngest self-made billionaire following a $2 billion investment from ICE, raising the company's valuation to $8 billion [26][27]

Equifax and FICO Pricing War - Equifax is responding to FICO's recent move to sell mortgage credit scores directly to lenders, which has put pressure on the big three credit bureaus [2][4] - FICO's new pricing model is set at $4.95 per completed loan or $10 per score, which has led to a decline in FICO's stock by over 3% [3][4] - In contrast, Equifax plans to reduce the price of its Vantage Score to $4.50 through 2027, which is less than half of FICO's new price [3][4] - Equifax is also offering Vantage Score for free to customers who purchase FICO scores in 2025 and 2026, positioning this as a response to FICO's "monopoly-like pricing" [4][6] - The situation is shaping up to be a high-stakes pricing war, with potential implications for FICO's dominance in the credit scoring industry [6] Dell's Stock Performance - Dell's stock has seen a week-to-date increase of 11%, reaching a 52-week high after Citigroup raised its price target from $160 to $175 [7][8] - Analysts are optimistic about Dell's outlook, market share, and earnings growth following its investor day, where it raised long-term EPS and revenue guidance [8] Space Mobile and Verizon Partnership - Verizon has signed a commercial agreement with Space Mobile, leading to a 17% increase in Space Mobile's shares [11][12] - The partnership aims to deliver cellular service directly from space, allowing standard smartphones to connect via satellite when out of range of traditional networks [12][13] - This service is expected to fill coverage gaps in remote and rural areas, enhancing connectivity for Verizon customers [13]