Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for the second half of 2025 was approximately CNY 159 million, a decrease from CNY 183.8 million in the same period of 2024 [18][19] - Merchandise sales revenue was CNY 128 million, reflecting a 0.16% increase compared to the second half of 2024 [3][19] - Net loss narrowed significantly from CNY 115 million in the same period of 2024 to CNY 33 million, representing a 70% reduction [4][22] - Basic and diluted net loss per share attributable to ordinary shareholders decreased to 0.02 from 0.06 in the same period of 2024 [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales of SUYE's polypeptide series increased by 20% year-over-year, while the rice cleansing mousse sales rose by 32% year-over-year [10] - Sales of the Pro-Xylane firming series increased by 26%, from CNY 20.7 million in 2024 to CNY 26.2 million in 2025 [10] - Five organic food and health products each generated sales of over CNY 10 million, including Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs and probiotic bolus [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company entered nine new cities through a local delivery model and added over 4,000 new community leaders in 2025 [14][15] - The repurchase rate among users remained high at 69.7%, indicating strong customer loyalty [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become a global leader in organic healthy living, focusing on premium product strategies and customer loyalty [3] - A shift from a product sales platform to a product plus experience platform is underway, enhancing user engagement and loyalty [11][12] - The company is actively exploring diversified customer acquisition channels while balancing growth with efficiency [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management acknowledged the challenging market environment but emphasized the resilience of the business and the effectiveness of disciplined product selection and operational execution [24] - Looking ahead to the first half of 2026, the company will focus on maintaining its strategic positioning and enhancing product and experience offerings [16] Other Important Information - Total cost of revenues increased by 3% to CNY 92.7 million, while total operating expenses decreased significantly to CNY 112.4 million from CNY 200.1 million in the prior year [20][22] - The company had CNY 216.1 million in cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2025, down from CNY 242.8 million a year earlier [23] Q&A Session Summary - No specific questions or answers were documented in the provided content, thus this section is not applicable.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's net income grew by 18% excluding external factors, while consolidated net profit grew around 10% including those factors [3][38] - For Q4 2025, net income growth reached 13%, indicating solid performance despite headwinds [3][38] - Revenue growth for the full year was 19%, with a 15% growth in Q4 [38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Payments in Kazakhstan saw a TPV growth of 14% year-over-year in Q4 and 19% for the full year [20] - Marketplace GMV growth was 12% in Q4 and 19% for the full year, with e-commerce being the fastest-growing segment [22][24] - Fintech growth was 4% in Q4 and 13% for the full year, driven by merchant and micro business financing [31][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The smartphone category negatively impacted GMV, with a decline of around 24% in Q4, but it returned to growth in January 2026 [22] - E-commerce purchases grew by 70% in Q4 and 83% for the full year, indicating strong demand [24] - The number of engaged consumers in Turkey increased by 29%, reflecting a focus on consumer engagement [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue investing in long-term growth while resuming dividends, proposing a dividend of KZT 850 per ADS [2] - E-commerce is a key focus area, with plans to enhance delivery and advertising services to drive growth [10][11] - The strategy in Turkey mirrors that of Kazakhstan, focusing on engaged consumers rather than just total user count [14][80] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges from high interest rates, tax changes, and smartphone supply issues but remains optimistic about future growth [3][38] - The company is focused on creating a valuable business through high-quality products and services, rather than merely expanding size [70][71] - There is an expectation for interest rates to potentially decrease in the medium term, which would benefit the business [42] Other Important Information - The company reported a strong brand presence, with significant consumer engagement metrics, including 77 monthly transactions per active consumer [4][5] - The launch of the "pay by palm" service has seen rapid adoption, with nearly half a million customers registered in Almaty [7][8] - The company plans to manage Hepsiburada towards EBITDA breakeven while continuing to invest in consumer engagement [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you clarify the investment related to Rabobank and the $300 million investment? - The investment will enhance consumer engagement and improve delivery offerings, with specific product launches to be announced as regulatory approvals are obtained [47][52] Question: How do you perceive the competitive environment in Turkey? - The company focuses on high-quality products and services rather than on competition, prioritizing consumer and merchant satisfaction [63][70] Question: What is the expected bottom line development considering regulatory changes? - The company anticipates higher taxes and reserve requirements to impact the bottom line, but expects to return to growth in the second half of the year [68][69]

Core Insights - Kaspi.kz aims to build a user base of 100 million, with strategic decisions focused on product launches, investments in Türkiye, and dividend policies [3][4]. Financial Performance - For FY 2025, revenue and net income increased by 19% and 10% YoY, respectively, with underlying revenue and net income rising by 21% and 18% [20]. - In 4Q 2025, revenue grew by 15% YoY, while net income saw a modest increase of 1% YoY; underlying revenue and net income increased by 18% and 13% [20]. - Engagement metrics remained strong, with 77 monthly transactions per active consumer [20]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to pay a quarterly dividend of KZT 850 per ADS, which is expected to be sustainable for the remainder of 2026, subject to shareholder approval [5][20]. E-commerce Growth in Türkiye - Hepsiburada's consumer engagement metrics improved significantly, with monthly active consumers increasing by 15% YoY and engaged consumers growing by 29% YoY in 4Q 2025 [7][20]. - The company is focusing on enhancing order growth through better personalization, faster delivery, and improved marketing efficiency [6][7]. Investment Strategy - Kaspi.kz plans to invest approximately $300 million upon closing the acquisition of Rabobank A. Ş., which is expected to enhance e-commerce and fintech synergies [9]. - The company anticipates that e-commerce will be the main driver of future growth in both Kazakhstan and Türkiye, supported by fintech products and higher-margin services [17]. Market Dynamics - In Kazakhstan, e-commerce purchases per consumer reached 24.8 in 2025, while Hepsiburada's figure was around 6.7, indicating significant growth potential [12]. - The company expects to narrow the engagement gap in Türkiye over time, leveraging its experience and defined strategies [13]. Regulatory Environment - The corporate tax rate for banks in Kazakhstan increased to 25% from 20%, which is expected to raise the consolidated tax rate for Kaspi.kz by around 200 basis points YoY in 2026 [14]. - The National Bank of Kazakhstan raised minimum reserve requirements, which may impact interest revenue generation [15]. Future Outlook - The company expects consolidated Adjusted EBITDA growth of around 5% YoY for 2026, with guidance now including Türkiye for the first time [21].

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets experienced significant selling pressure on February 23rd, 2026, due to escalating global trade tensions and a Supreme Court ruling that limited the executive branch's authority to impose tariffs [1] - The major indexes opened lower and maintained a downward trend throughout the session, reflecting a "risk-off" sentiment across nearly all sectors [1] Major Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by 814.40 points, or 1.7%, closing at 48,804, primarily impacted by losses in financial and industrial sectors [2] - The S&P 500 (SPX) decreased by 1.0%, ending at 6,837, while the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) dropped 1.1% to close at 22,627 [2] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remained elevated, indicating heightened market fear amid geopolitical instability [2] Corporate News and Market Movers - International Business Machines (IBM) saw a significant decline of 13.1% due to concerns over AI disruption and trade-related challenges [3] - American Express (AXP) dropped 7.2%, while Visa (V), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Goldman Sachs (GS) all experienced declines exceeding 3% [3] - In the healthcare sector, Novo Nordisk (NVO) faced a 15.85% drop in its ADRs, attributed to increased competition in the metabolic drug market [4] - E-commerce giants Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) also suffered losses due to tariff-related concerns, while Nvidia (NVDA) gained 0.9% ahead of its earnings report [4] Retail Sector Highlights - Domino's Pizza (DPZ) reported fourth-quarter earnings of $5.35 per share, slightly missing estimates, but achieved a revenue of $1.535 billion and same-store sales growth of 3.7%, resulting in a 6% stock increase [5] Post-Market Earnings and Upcoming Events - Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) reported an adjusted loss of $0.16 per share, better than the expected loss of $0.23, with revenue at $273.43 million and a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026 [6] - Other companies reporting included ONEOK (OKE), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Keysight Technologies (KEYS), with investors monitoring the impact of new tariffs on capital expenditure and supply chain costs [6] Upcoming Market Events - The Conference Board is set to release the February Consumer Confidence Index, expected to rise to 87.5 [7] - President Trump will deliver the State of the Union address, likely providing further insights into trade policy [7] - Nvidia's earnings report is anticipated, with analysts expecting a 70% year-over-year revenue growth, which could influence market direction [7] - The January Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, a key metric for the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts [7]

Core Viewpoint - Shopify has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 index over the past three years, and the recent decline of nearly 40% from its peak may present a buying opportunity [2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Shopify reported a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $123.84 billion, a year-over-year increase of 31.1%, exceeding market expectations of $119.96 billion by $3.88 billion [7]. - Revenue for the quarter reached $3.67 billion, up 30.6% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations of $3.59 billion by $0.82 billion [8]. - Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) was $205 million, reflecting a 15.2% year-over-year growth, also exceeding expectations of $199.05 million by $0.0595 million [8]. - Operating income was $631 million, a 35.7% increase year-over-year [9]. - Free cash flow amounted to $715 million, up 17.0% year-over-year, although the profit margin declined [10]. Yearly Financial Overview - For the year ended December 31, 2025, key financial metrics included: - GMV: $378.44 billion, up from $292.28 billion in 2024 [11]. - Revenue: $11.56 billion, compared to $8.88 billion in 2024 [11]. - Gross profit: $5.56 billion, up from $4.47 billion in 2024 [11]. - Operating income: $1.47 billion, compared to $1.08 billion in 2024 [11]. - Free cash flow: $2.01 billion, up from $1.60 billion in 2024 [11]. - The year-over-year revenue growth rate was 30% for 2025, compared to 26% for 2024 [11]. Margin Trends - The gross margin decreased from 48% to 46%, and the free cash flow margin fell from 22% to 19% [12]. - The decline in gross margin has been a structural trend since 2016, with a compound annual growth rate decline of -1.2% [12]. - The company attributes this trend to the growth of merchant solutions, which typically have lower margins than subscription solutions [13]. Operating Expenses - Over the past two years, the proportion of sales and marketing, research and development, and general and administrative expenses relative to revenue has decreased, indicating strong operating leverage [14]. - Transaction and loan loss provisions have increased, primarily due to financing-related merchant solutions, but are expected to normalize without significant value erosion [14]. 2026 Performance Guidance - Shopify expects revenue growth in Q1 2026 to remain above 30%, similar to Q4 2025 levels [18]. - Gross profit growth is anticipated to be in the high 20% range [19]. - Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue are projected to be between 37% and 38% [20]. - Free cash flow margin is expected to be in the range of 10% to 15%, slightly lower than Q1 2025 [21]. Valuation - Shopify's current valuation appears to be below the historical median, which is high at 31 times gross profit [22]. - Using a five-year discounted cash flow model, assuming a 25% annual growth rate for free cash flow, the implied value is approximately $77 billion, indicating the current stock price may be overvalued by nearly 100% [22]. - In a highly optimistic scenario with a 25% growth rate over ten years, the reasonable equity value could be around $155.6 billion, suggesting a slight undervaluation at the current market cap of $149 billion [22]. Conclusion - Analysts view Shopify as a high-quality company with a strong market position and recurring revenue model, justifying a valuation premium [27]. - Despite a 40% decline, market growth expectations remain high, and pressures on profit margins and economic downturn risks have not been fully priced into the stock, potentially creating a buying opportunity [27].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) increased by 29%, reaching $378 billion, while revenue grew by 30% to $11.5 billion, accelerating from 2024's growth of 26% [9][38] - Q4 marked the first quarter with revenue exceeding $3 billion, surpassing total revenue for the entire year of 2020 [10] - Free cash flow for 2025 exceeded $2 billion, achieving a free cash flow margin of 17% [45][46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from Merchant Solutions grew by 35%, driven by strong GMV and increased penetration of Shopify Payments, with $84 billion of GMV processed on Shopify Payments in Q4 [39] - Subscription Solutions revenue increased by 17%, with Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) growing by 15% year-over-year [40] - Offline channel revenue grew by 27% to $748 million, while B2B GMV surged by 84% in Q4 and 96% for the year [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America saw a revenue increase of 28%, now powering over 14% of the U.S. e-commerce market [10] - International revenue grew by 36% year-over-year, with nearly half of the merchant base located outside North America [11] - European merchants experienced a 45% increase in Q4 GMV, indicating strong growth in that region [37] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage AI to enhance commerce experiences, focusing on creating a new normal in the AI shopping era [5][6] - The Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) was co-developed with Google to standardize AI shopping experiences, allowing merchants to sell on major AI platforms [7][19] - The strategy includes expanding global reach, with Shopify Payments now available in 60 new countries and the introduction of cryptocurrency options [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the challenges faced by merchants in 2025, including tariffs and geopolitical changes, and emphasized the company's role in helping them adapt [32] - The outlook for Q1 2026 anticipates revenue growth in the low 30s year-over-year, driven by robust growth in payments and continued international expansion [47] - Management expressed confidence in the long-term value of the business, supported by a strong balance sheet and a share repurchase program of up to $2 billion [46] Other Important Information - The company reported a gross profit growth of 25% in Q4, with operating expenses improving to 29% of revenue [41][42] - The company has achieved 10 consecutive quarters of double-digit free cash flow margin, reflecting strong operational efficiency [46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in Shopify's ability to monetize transactions through AI surfaces - Management clarified that transactions through AI surfaces will still utilize Shopify's checkout, ensuring consistent monetization for merchants [51][52] Question: Key milestones for agentic commerce adoption - Management noted that orders from AI searches have increased by 15x since January 2025, indicating early adoption and the potential for significant growth [59][60] Question: Economics and competitive dynamics of agentic commerce - Management reiterated that the economics for merchants remain the same regardless of the sales surface, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a reliable backend for transactions [64][66]

Core Viewpoint - Shopify expects revenue growth in Q1 2026, continuing the momentum from Q4 across merchants, regions, and sales channels [1][10] Revenue Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from $2.36 billion in Q1 2025 to approximately $2.95 billion in Q1 2026, reflecting a growth rate of over 30% [1][10] - For the year 2025, Shopify's revenue is expected to increase to $11.56 billion, with analysts forecasting a further rise to $14.26 billion, representing a growth of about 23.4% [2][11] Profitability and Financial Metrics - The company anticipates gross profit growth at nearly 30%, with operating expenses expected to account for 37% to 38% of revenue [3][12] - Free cash flow margin is projected to be between 10% and 15% [3][12] - In Q4, Shopify reported a net profit of $743 million, or $0.57 per share, down from $1.29 billion or $0.99 per share in the same period last year [4][13] - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.48, slightly below the analyst expectation of $0.50 [4][13] Revenue and GMV Growth - Revenue increased from $2.81 billion to $3.67 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $3.59 billion [5][14] - Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) rose from $94.46 billion to $123.84 billion year-over-year [6][15] - Monthly recurring revenue increased from $178 million to $205 million [7][15] Cash Flow and Stock Performance - Free cash flow was reported at $715 million, up from $611 million year-over-year, although the free cash flow margin decreased from 22% to 19% [8][15] - The stock has significantly declined from a high of approximately CAD 253 to CAD 172.54 recently, reflecting broader trends in software stocks as investors await clarity on the impact of artificial intelligence and overall demand [8][9][15]

Defining the next era of commerce Q4 2025 Advisories This presentation contains forward-looking statements and forward looking information (collectively, "forward-looking statements") that are based on our management's current estimates, beliefs and assumptions and management's perception of historic trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors management believes are appropriate in the circumstances. These statements may be identified by words such as "expect," "ena ...

Core Insights - Analysts project Shopify (SHOP) will report quarterly earnings of $0.50 per share, reflecting a 13.6% year-over-year increase, with revenues expected to reach $3.58 billion, a 27.3% increase from the same quarter last year [1] Revenue Estimates - 'Revenues- Merchant solutions' are estimated to be $2.80 billion, indicating a 30.5% increase from the prior-year quarter [4] - 'Revenues- Subscription solutions' are projected to reach $777.54 million, reflecting a 16.8% increase from the same quarter last year [4] Gross Merchandise Volume and Recurring Revenue - Analysts estimate 'Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV)' will be $119.96 billion, compared to $94.46 billion a year ago [5] - The estimated 'Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)' is $199.05 million, up from $178.00 million in the same quarter last year [5] Gross Profit Estimates - 'Gross Profit- Merchant solutions' is forecasted at $1.03 billion, compared to $820.00 million from the previous year [6] - 'Gross Profit- Subscription solutions' is expected to reach $633.57 million, up from $532.00 million in the same quarter last year [6] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Shopify shares have decreased by 33.9%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has only decreased by 1.5% [6] - Currently, Shopify holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [6]

Group 1 - Shopify Inc. plans to announce its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, before markets open on February 11, 2026 [1] - A conference call will be hosted by Shopify's management team to discuss the fourth-quarter and full-year results at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 11, 2026 [2] - The conference call will be available via webcast on Shopify's investor relations website, with an archived replay accessible after the call [2] Group 2 - Shopify provides essential internet infrastructure for commerce, facilitating the start, operation, and growth of businesses [3] - The platform supports sales across various channels, including online and in-store, and is utilized by millions of businesses in over 175 countries [3] - Notable brands using Shopify include Aldo, BarkBox, Carrier, Meta, Vuori, SKIMS, and Supreme [3]