U.S. equity markets faced a wave of intense selling pressure on Monday, February 23rd, 2026, as investors grappled with a sudden escalation in global trade tensions and a landmark Supreme Court ruling. The major indexes opened in the red and remained under pressure throughout the session, driven by a "risk-off" sentiment that permeated nearly every sector. The volatility was sparked by a 6-3 Supreme Court decision that curtailed the executive branch's authority to impose certain reciprocal tariffs under the ...

Core Viewpoint - Shopify has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 index over the past three years, and the recent decline of nearly 40% from its peak may present a buying opportunity [2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Shopify reported a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $123.84 billion, a year-over-year increase of 31.1%, exceeding market expectations of $119.96 billion by $3.88 billion [7]. - Revenue for the quarter reached $3.67 billion, up 30.6% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations of $3.59 billion by $0.82 billion [8]. - Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) was $205 million, reflecting a 15.2% year-over-year growth, also exceeding expectations of $199.05 million by $0.0595 million [8]. - Operating income was $631 million, a 35.7% increase year-over-year [9]. - Free cash flow amounted to $715 million, up 17.0% year-over-year, although the profit margin declined [10]. Yearly Financial Overview - For the year ended December 31, 2025, key financial metrics included: - GMV: $378.44 billion, up from $292.28 billion in 2024 [11]. - Revenue: $11.56 billion, compared to $8.88 billion in 2024 [11]. - Gross profit: $5.56 billion, up from $4.47 billion in 2024 [11]. - Operating income: $1.47 billion, compared to $1.08 billion in 2024 [11]. - Free cash flow: $2.01 billion, up from $1.60 billion in 2024 [11]. - The year-over-year revenue growth rate was 30% for 2025, compared to 26% for 2024 [11]. Margin Trends - The gross margin decreased from 48% to 46%, and the free cash flow margin fell from 22% to 19% [12]. - The decline in gross margin has been a structural trend since 2016, with a compound annual growth rate decline of -1.2% [12]. - The company attributes this trend to the growth of merchant solutions, which typically have lower margins than subscription solutions [13]. Operating Expenses - Over the past two years, the proportion of sales and marketing, research and development, and general and administrative expenses relative to revenue has decreased, indicating strong operating leverage [14]. - Transaction and loan loss provisions have increased, primarily due to financing-related merchant solutions, but are expected to normalize without significant value erosion [14]. 2026 Performance Guidance - Shopify expects revenue growth in Q1 2026 to remain above 30%, similar to Q4 2025 levels [18]. - Gross profit growth is anticipated to be in the high 20% range [19]. - Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue are projected to be between 37% and 38% [20]. - Free cash flow margin is expected to be in the range of 10% to 15%, slightly lower than Q1 2025 [21]. Valuation - Shopify's current valuation appears to be below the historical median, which is high at 31 times gross profit [22]. - Using a five-year discounted cash flow model, assuming a 25% annual growth rate for free cash flow, the implied value is approximately $77 billion, indicating the current stock price may be overvalued by nearly 100% [22]. - In a highly optimistic scenario with a 25% growth rate over ten years, the reasonable equity value could be around $155.6 billion, suggesting a slight undervaluation at the current market cap of $149 billion [22]. Conclusion - Analysts view Shopify as a high-quality company with a strong market position and recurring revenue model, justifying a valuation premium [27]. - Despite a 40% decline, market growth expectations remain high, and pressures on profit margins and economic downturn risks have not been fully priced into the stock, potentially creating a buying opportunity [27].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) increased by 29%, reaching $378 billion, while revenue grew by 30% to $11.5 billion, accelerating from 2024's growth of 26% [9][38] - Q4 marked the first quarter with revenue exceeding $3 billion, surpassing total revenue for the entire year of 2020 [10] - Free cash flow for 2025 exceeded $2 billion, achieving a free cash flow margin of 17% [45][46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from Merchant Solutions grew by 35%, driven by strong GMV and increased penetration of Shopify Payments, with $84 billion of GMV processed on Shopify Payments in Q4 [39] - Subscription Solutions revenue increased by 17%, with Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) growing by 15% year-over-year [40] - Offline channel revenue grew by 27% to $748 million, while B2B GMV surged by 84% in Q4 and 96% for the year [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America saw a revenue increase of 28%, now powering over 14% of the U.S. e-commerce market [10] - International revenue grew by 36% year-over-year, with nearly half of the merchant base located outside North America [11] - European merchants experienced a 45% increase in Q4 GMV, indicating strong growth in that region [37] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage AI to enhance commerce experiences, focusing on creating a new normal in the AI shopping era [5][6] - The Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) was co-developed with Google to standardize AI shopping experiences, allowing merchants to sell on major AI platforms [7][19] - The strategy includes expanding global reach, with Shopify Payments now available in 60 new countries and the introduction of cryptocurrency options [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the challenges faced by merchants in 2025, including tariffs and geopolitical changes, and emphasized the company's role in helping them adapt [32] - The outlook for Q1 2026 anticipates revenue growth in the low 30s year-over-year, driven by robust growth in payments and continued international expansion [47] - Management expressed confidence in the long-term value of the business, supported by a strong balance sheet and a share repurchase program of up to $2 billion [46] Other Important Information - The company reported a gross profit growth of 25% in Q4, with operating expenses improving to 29% of revenue [41][42] - The company has achieved 10 consecutive quarters of double-digit free cash flow margin, reflecting strong operational efficiency [46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in Shopify's ability to monetize transactions through AI surfaces - Management clarified that transactions through AI surfaces will still utilize Shopify's checkout, ensuring consistent monetization for merchants [51][52] Question: Key milestones for agentic commerce adoption - Management noted that orders from AI searches have increased by 15x since January 2025, indicating early adoption and the potential for significant growth [59][60] Question: Economics and competitive dynamics of agentic commerce - Management reiterated that the economics for merchants remain the same regardless of the sales surface, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a reliable backend for transactions [64][66]

第四季度，Shopify净利润为7.43亿美元，合每股0.57美元，低于去年同期的12.9亿美元、每股0.99美 元。 调整后每股收益为0.48美元。FactSet数据显示，分析师此前预期为每股0.50美元。 Shopify公司预计2026年第一季度收入将实现增长，延续第四季度在商家、地区和销售渠道全线的增长 势头。 这家为线上店铺和零售企业提供支持的商务平台公司周三表示，预计2026年第一季度收入将以30%出头 的增速增长，延续第四季度的增长势头。根据财经数据提供商FactSet的数据，分析师预计收入将从2025 年第一季度的23.6亿美元增至29.5亿美元，增幅约为25%。 2025年，Shopify收入增至115.6亿美元；分析师预计将增至142.6亿美元，增幅约为23.4%。 公司预计毛利润将以接近30%的增速增长，运营费用占收入比例将维持在37%至38%左右。 自由现金流利润率预计将在10%至15%区间。 2025年，Shopify收入增至115.6亿美元；分析师预计将增至142.6亿美元，增幅约为23.4%。 收入从28.1亿美元增至36.7亿美元，高于分析师预期的35.9亿美元。 平台商品交易总 ...

Defining the next era of commerce Q4 2025 Advisories This presentation contains forward-looking statements and forward looking information (collectively, "forward-looking statements") that are based on our management's current estimates, beliefs and assumptions and management's perception of historic trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors management believes are appropriate in the circumstances. These statements may be identified by words such as "expect," "ena ...

Core Insights - Analysts project Shopify (SHOP) will report quarterly earnings of $0.50 per share, reflecting a 13.6% year-over-year increase, with revenues expected to reach $3.58 billion, a 27.3% increase from the same quarter last year [1] Revenue Estimates - 'Revenues- Merchant solutions' are estimated to be $2.80 billion, indicating a 30.5% increase from the prior-year quarter [4] - 'Revenues- Subscription solutions' are projected to reach $777.54 million, reflecting a 16.8% increase from the same quarter last year [4] Gross Merchandise Volume and Recurring Revenue - Analysts estimate 'Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV)' will be $119.96 billion, compared to $94.46 billion a year ago [5] - The estimated 'Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)' is $199.05 million, up from $178.00 million in the same quarter last year [5] Gross Profit Estimates - 'Gross Profit- Merchant solutions' is forecasted at $1.03 billion, compared to $820.00 million from the previous year [6] - 'Gross Profit- Subscription solutions' is expected to reach $633.57 million, up from $532.00 million in the same quarter last year [6] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Shopify shares have decreased by 33.9%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has only decreased by 1.5% [6] - Currently, Shopify holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [6]

Group 1 - Shopify Inc. plans to announce its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, before markets open on February 11, 2026 [1] - A conference call will be hosted by Shopify's management team to discuss the fourth-quarter and full-year results at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 11, 2026 [2] - The conference call will be available via webcast on Shopify's investor relations website, with an archived replay accessible after the call [2] Group 2 - Shopify provides essential internet infrastructure for commerce, facilitating the start, operation, and growth of businesses [3] - The platform supports sales across various channels, including online and in-store, and is utilized by millions of businesses in over 175 countries [3] - Notable brands using Shopify include Aldo, BarkBox, Carrier, Meta, Vuori, SKIMS, and Supreme [3]

Core Insights - DoorDash (DASH) and Shopify (SHOP) are significant players in the e-commerce sector, with DASH leading in food delivery and expanding grocery services, while SHOP enhances its e-commerce presence through user-friendly tools and a vast app marketplace [1][2] Group 1: DoorDash (DASH) - DoorDash is experiencing growth due to increasing consumer demand for e-commerce and local delivery services, resulting in a notable rise in its e-commerce growth [3] - The company is investing in expanding its partner base for express grocery delivery, which strengthens its position in the on-demand delivery market [4] - In Q3 2025, total orders rose 21% year over year to 776 million, and Marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV) increased 25% year over year to $25 billion, indicating strong demand [5] - DoorDash's expansion into new verticals such as grocery, convenience, alcohol, and retail is a major contributor to its e-commerce growth [6] - For Q4 2025, DoorDash anticipates Marketplace GOV to be between $28.9 billion and $29.5 billion, highlighting its growth trajectory [7] Group 2: Shopify (SHOP) - Shopify is benefiting from a robust increase in its merchant base, with merchant solutions revenues in Q3 reaching $2.15 billion, accounting for 75.4% of total revenues [8] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance commerce, with its AI tool Sidekick adopted by over 750,000 shops, facilitating nearly 100 million conversations with merchants [9] - Shopify is attracting large enterprise brands like Estee Lauder and Michael Kors, which strengthens its position in the e-commerce market [10] - Over the past six months, Shopify's shares have risen 54.2%, outperforming DASH's 1.7% increase, driven by strong growth in its merchant and enterprise customer base [12][11] Group 3: Market Outlook - The e-commerce market size is projected to grow from $31.22 trillion in 2025 to $73.47 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.67%, benefiting both DoorDash and Shopify [2] - Shopify is expected to have a stronger upside due to its diversified merchant ecosystem and increasing enterprise adoption, with Q4 2025 revenues anticipated to grow at a mid-to-high twenties percentage rate year over year [21] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DASH's 2025 earnings is $2.22 per share, reflecting a 665.52% year-over-year increase, while SHOP's estimate is $1.45 per share, indicating an 11.54% increase year over year [18]

Core Insights - VTEX is a cloud-based e-commerce platform designed to simplify global expansion for retailers, addressing operational, technological, and cultural challenges [2][3] - The company's recent expansion into Dubai is a strategic move aimed at accelerating growth across the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and beyond, leveraging Dubai's position as a commerce hub [4][6] - VTEX supports over 3,000 clients in 37 countries, showcasing its capability to manage complex commerce operations and partnerships with high-profile brands [6][12] Company Overview - VTEX provides an all-in-one solution for online sales, enabling brands to manage product listings, pricing, promotions, checkout, payments, and omnichannel operations [3] - The platform supports multi-brand operations and scalable commerce models, allowing retailers to save time and reduce complexity while scaling profitably [5][12] - VTEX aims to create a global network that fosters commerce innovation and growth, not just through technology but by sharing knowledge and best practices [7][11] Technological Integration - The integration of AI capabilities enhances retailer competitiveness, improving conversion rates and operational efficiency [8][9] - AI-driven product recommendations can increase conversion rates by up to 35%, while agentic AI automates post-purchase processes, reducing reliance on call centers [9][10] - VTEX's vision includes evolving beyond traditional automation to fundamentally transform commerce operations through intelligent decision-making [10] Strategic Vision - Looking towards 2030, VTEX envisions its platform as a global center of commerce excellence, with Dubai serving as a key operational hub [13][14] - The company aims to empower businesses by training talent and creating scalable commerce models, ensuring profitability and sustainability [13][14] - VTEX positions itself as a critical partner for retailers navigating the complexities of global commerce, emphasizing the importance of the right technology and strategic hubs [15]

Core Viewpoint - Shopify has historically provided significant returns for long-term investors, with a $1,000 investment at its IPO in May 2015 now worth approximately $60,000, although recent five-year performance has been less favorable compared to the S&P 500 [1][2]. Shopify's Five-Year Performance - Over the past five years, Shopify's stock has increased by 58%, which is underwhelming compared to the S&P 500's more than 100% increase during the same period [2]. - Shareholders who held the stock for five years experienced significant volatility, including a peak increase of 60% in the first year after buying in November 2020, followed by a decline of up to 87% due to a bear market and strategic missteps [4][5]. Recent Developments - By early 2023, the bear market was concluding, and Shopify sold its fulfillment network to Flexport in June 2023, which helped the company return to profitability and led to an increase in share price [5][6]. - Shopify's decision to exit the fulfillment business allowed it to refocus on its core software competencies, maintaining a competitive advantage in the e-commerce platform ecosystem [6][7]. Historical Context - The 2022 bear market was the only significant downturn in Shopify's over 10-year history, with previous sell-offs being relatively shallow and typically recovering quickly [7][8]. - Current trends indicate that with rising revenue and profits, another sustained sell-off like that of 2022 is becoming increasingly unlikely [8]. Investment Outlook - Despite underperforming the market over the last five years, Shopify stock is still considered a good investment, with the potential for continued outperformance due to ongoing revenue and profit growth [9][10]. - Historical instances of significant losses are rare, and Shopify has generally outperformed the market over most time periods, suggesting resilience even if purchased at a short-term peak [10].