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China's economic growth likely slowed in third quarter
CNBC· 2025-10-19 23:57
China Shipping containers are seen at the port of Oakland as trade tensions continue over U.S. tariffs with China, in Oakland, California, on May 12, 2025.BEIJING — China's economy likely slowed in the third quarter, with official data due Monday expected to confirm weaker growth, according to analysts polled by Reuters.The analysts forecast gross domestic product growth rose 4.8% in the July-to-September period from a year ago, easing from 5.2% in the previous quarter.Fixed-asset investment, which includes ...
中国工业与中小市值企业:2025 年上半年业绩后,下半年的哑铃型投资组合-China Industrials and SMID_ Barbell Baskets for 2H25E Post 1H25 Results
2025-09-15 01:49
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Outlook**: The industrial sector in China is facing a challenging trajectory in 2H25, with persistent macro headwinds and a cautious outlook due to muted demand and external risks, particularly from US tariffs [10][11][24][25]. Core Insights 1. **Earnings Performance**: In 1H25, 39% of companies reported earnings beats, a notable increase from 20% in 2H24, indicating improved performance against lower expectations [1]. 2. **Manufacturing Activity**: The Manufacturing PMI fell below 50 during Apr-Aug 2025, reflecting weak domestic consumption and cooling export orders [11][12]. 3. **Corporate Profits**: Industrial profits declined by 1.7% year-on-year to RMB 4 trillion (approximately USD 559 billion) in 7M25, with a slight recovery noted in July due to government measures [14]. 4. **Capex Intentions**: There is a significant contraction in Japan's machine tool orders to China, indicating a risk-off sentiment among manufacturers [16][20]. 5. **Destocking Cycle**: The destocking phase is nearing an end, but restocking is not yet in sight, as businesses await improved demand and profit margins [21]. Investment Strategies Barbell Strategy - **High-Risk Basket**: Focus on sectors like AI infrastructure, factory automation, and humanoid robots. Key picks include: - **AI Infra**: Kingboard Laminates (KBL), Shengyi Technology (SYTECH), Han's CNC [26][27]. - **Factory Automation**: Wuxi Lead, UBTECH, Hengli Hydraulic [43][46]. - **Low-Risk Basket**: Emphasize infrastructure and export sectors, with a preference for: - **China Infrastructure**: CRRC, Lesso, China State Construction International (CSCI) [5][61]. - **Export**: Techtronic, Shenzhou, Stella, focusing on high dividend yields [5]. Key Company Insights 1. **Kingboard Laminates (KBL)**: Reported 1H25 earnings growth of 28% to HKD 933 million, with expectations of improved gross margins in 2H25 due to price increases [28][29]. 2. **Shengyi Technology (SYTECH)**: Anticipates a 10-15% increase in shipments of AI-related materials, with ongoing expansion plans [33][34]. 3. **Wuxi Lead**: Expected to benefit from an EV battery capex cycle turnaround, with new orders projected to exceed previous guidance [47][48]. 4. **UBTECH**: Revised delivery guidance for humanoid robots upwards, indicating strong demand in the auto and electronics sectors [52][53]. 5. **CRRC**: Upgraded to Buy due to strong earnings and increased high-speed rail tenders, with a target price raised to HKD 7.30 [62][64]. Additional Considerations - **Policy Response**: The effectiveness of government policies in stimulating demand remains uncertain, with a need for decisive action to restore private sector confidence [24]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the industrial sector is cautious, with a preference for companies with strong balance sheets and exposure to structural growth themes [25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the China industrial sector, investment strategies, and specific company insights.
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-08-27 10:34
Indian exporters hit by President Donald Trump’s 50% tariff say they can’t survive without government support https://t.co/mIWSHYRekW ...
野村:中国_准备迎接需求冲击
野村· 2025-07-14 00:36
Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Chinese economy, suggesting a potential demand cliff in H2 2025, leading to a GDP growth forecast drop to 4.0% year-on-year from approximately 5.1% in H1 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recurring pattern in China's economic performance, where optimism in the first half of the year is often followed by disappointing outcomes in the second half, particularly in 2023 and 2024 [2]. - Austerity measures initiated in mid-May are expected to significantly impact consumption, particularly in the services sector, leading to a notable slowdown in retail sales growth to 3.1% year-on-year in H2 from an expected 5.1% in H1 [8][11]. - The property market continues to face severe challenges, with new home sales volume and value declining significantly, indicating a prolonged correction phase [32][35]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a demand cliff in H2 2025 due to multiple factors, including austerity measures, a payback effect from durable goods sales, and ongoing issues in the property sector [3][4]. - GDP growth is projected to decrease to 4.0% year-on-year in H2 from around 5.1% in H1 2025 [3]. Austerity Measures - The new anti-extravagance campaign has led to a significant drop in demand for services, particularly in the catering and alcohol sectors, with retail sales growth expected to slow to 3.1% year-on-year in H2 [6][11]. - The average funding for the consumer trade-in program is projected to decrease, further impacting retail sales growth [7][13]. Property Market - The property market is entering its fifth year of correction, with new home sales and prices continuing to decline, particularly in large cities [32][33]. - Existing home prices in tier-1 cities fell by 0.9% in April-May 2025, indicating ongoing weakness in the housing market [34]. Export Sector - China's export growth is expected to slow sharply in H2 2025 due to payback effects from front-loading and high tariffs, with a full-year export growth forecast of 0.0% [44][45]. - High-frequency data indicates strong headwinds for exports, with manufacturing sector PMIs reflecting contraction [45][46]. Investment Trends - Investment growth in key sectors has decelerated, with significant declines noted in the solar and lithium-ion battery sectors, highlighting the need for regulatory intervention [26][27]. - The report emphasizes that the ongoing issues of overinvestment and capacity underutilization are likely to create short-term economic headwinds [24][25].
拉丁美洲商业和商业研究
OECD· 2025-05-30 04:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed. Core Insights - The OECD study on trade and gender in Latin America highlights the underrepresentation of women in trade-related positions compared to men, with women being up to 40% less likely to be hired for export-related roles. This gender gap has remained relatively static over time [19][36][64]. - Women face significant barriers in accessing trade opportunities, with only 10% of women-led businesses participating in international trade compared to 14% of men-led businesses. This indicates a need for targeted policies to enhance women's participation in trade [37][38]. - The report emphasizes the importance of public policies aimed at reducing gender disparities in trade, which could lead to economic growth and improved outcomes for women in the labor market [48][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report outlines the significant gender gap in economic empowerment and participation in trade across seven Latin American countries, emphasizing the need for public policies to address these disparities [48][49]. 2. Women Workers - Women are less likely to work in export-related jobs, with a notable occupational segregation that limits their access to better-paying and more productive roles. The report indicates that women with high qualifications often work in sectors less related to trade [36][64]. - The analysis shows that women in the studied countries are 40% less likely to hold export-dependent jobs compared to men, with variations across countries [71][72]. 3. Women Business Leaders in Trade - Women-led businesses are generally smaller and face more challenges in accessing financing and international markets. The report highlights that these businesses are more likely to operate in the informal economy [38][39][42]. - The participation of women in leadership roles within businesses is crucial for enhancing their engagement in international trade [37][38]. 4. Women Consumers - The impact of trade on consumers, particularly women, is discussed, noting that lower tariffs benefit lower-income households disproportionately. The report also highlights differences in spending patterns based on gender [43][44]. 5. Trade in Services - The report notes that women predominantly work in the services sector, where trade barriers can increase costs and affect competitiveness. It emphasizes the need for policies that facilitate trade in services to support women-led businesses [41][42]. 6. Trade Facilitation - Improvements in trade facilitation have been noted in the seven countries studied, with significant progress in customs efficiency since the implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement [42]. 7. Trade Agreements and Women - Latin American countries have been proactive in incorporating gender provisions in trade agreements, with 40 out of 87 agreements including explicit references to gender [44]. 8. Policy Recommendations - The report proposes several policy reforms aimed at promoting gender equality in trade, including enhancing gender sensitivity in trade agreements, improving market access, and supporting gender-focused policy formulation [45][46].