Chinese fertilizer industry groups are urging major producers to suspend exports of phosphate-based farm nutrients https://t.co/PU9PaalG4W ...

3Q2025 RESULTS PRESENTATION November 2025 Customary note regarding forward- looking statements This presentation release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as: "anticipate," "plan," "believe," "estimate," "expect," "strategy," "should," "will" and similar references to future periods. Examples of forward-looking statements include, among ...

Financial Performance - Total sales reached $1.9 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, with specialties-driven sales up by 3%[5] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 4% year-over-year to $398 million[5] - Specialties-driven sales amounted to $1.5 billion, with an EBITDA of $251 million[5] Segment Performance - **Industrial Products:** Sales were $295 million, and EBITDA was $67 million, with a 23% EBITDA margin[8] - **Potash:** Sales increased to $453 million, and EBITDA reached $169 million, with a 37% EBITDA margin; average potash CIF price was $353 per ton[13, 16] - **Phosphate Solutions:** Sales were $605 million, and EBITDA was $134 million, with a 22% EBITDA margin; Phosphate Specialties sales were $348 million with $51 million EBITDA, while Phosphate Commodities sales were $257 million with $83 million EBITDA[19, 21] - **Growing Solutions:** Sales were $561 million, and EBITDA was $50 million, with a 9% EBITDA margin[23] Financial Position - Available cash resources totaled $1.5 billion[40] - Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 1.4x[40] - Quarterly dividend was $62 million, resulting in an annual yield of 2.8%[40] Guidance - The company maintains its full-year 2025 guidance for specialties-driven EBITDA between $0.95 billion and $1.15 billion[45] - Potash sales volumes are expected to be between 4.3 million metric tons and 4.5 million metric tons[45]

Financial Performance - Net sales increased to $155 million in Q3'25 from $109 million in Q3'24[16] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $40 million in Q3'25, compared to $17 million in Q3'24[16] - Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 26% in Q3'25 from 16% in Q3'24[16] - Diluted EPS was $010 in Q3'25, a significant improvement from $(035) in Q3'24[16] Sales and Production - The company saw increased sales volumes of AN (Ammonium Nitrate) and Nitric Acid in Q3'25 compared to Q3'24[8] - UAN (Urea Ammonium Nitrate) sales volumes also increased in Q3'25 compared to Q3'24[8] Market Conditions and Outlook - The company anticipates a strong market outlook for both fertilizer and industrial end markets into 2026[9] - Demand for industrial products is robust, supported by strong gold and copper prices[10, 11] - Strong fertilizer pricing is expected to continue, driven by ammonia supply disruptions and strong demand[13, 15] Balance Sheet and Liquidity - The company's cash and short-term investments totaled $152 million as of September 30, 2025[22] - Total debt was $448 million as of September 30, 2025[22] - Net debt to TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) Adjusted EBITDA was 20X[22]

Cost Analysis - Fertilizer costs represent a significant portion, ranging from 20% to 30%, of the total expenses for producing crops like corn and soybeans [1] - Farmers are increasingly using the bushel-to-ton ratio to assess fertilizer costs relative to potential revenue, rather than solely focusing on the dollar price per ton [3] - For example, with corn at approximately $4.60 per bushel and URA at $400 per ton, a farmer would need to sell about 84 bushels of corn to purchase one ton of URA [4] - Similarly, with soybeans at roughly $10.70 per bushel, it would take about 36 bushels of soybeans to purchase one ton of URA [5] Risk Management & Market Dynamics - Fertilizer needs and prices are influenced year-round by factors such as weather, crop quality, market dynamics, and river levels [2] - Late-season weather events or forecasts for lower-quality harvests can prompt farmers to consider additional fertilizer applications [3] Hedging Opportunities - CME Group's introduction of a smaller 10-ton URA US Gulf futures contract provides farmers with a new opportunity to hedge fertilizer costs [6]

Shares of fertilizer company Mosaic dropped as operational issues at phosphate plants hit production, adding pressure to a segment already suffering from US tariffs https://t.co/Y7jMJwQcMm ...

Group 1 - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching more than 1000 companies across various sectors including commodities and technology [1] - The focus has shifted from writing a blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, covering hundreds of companies [1] - The analyst expresses a particular interest in metals and mining stocks, while also being comfortable with consumer discretionary, REITs, and utilities [1]

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest person, concluded a multibillion-dollar deal with Ethiopia to build a fertilizer plant that will help transform the nation’s farm-dependent economy https://t.co/RRQHmCbPaH ...

Core Insights - Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) reported profits of $1,229 million or $2.50 per share for Q2 2025, a significant increase from $392 million or 78 cents in the same quarter last year, with adjusted earnings per share at $2.65, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.40 [1] - Sales rose approximately 2.8% year over year to $10,438 million, although this figure fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10,610.1 million [1] Segment Highlights - The Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) segment saw a 1% decline in sales year over year, totaling $7,959 million, missing the estimate of $8,591.6 million [2] - The Potash division experienced a 31% year-over-year sales increase, reaching $991 million, exceeding the estimate of $677.8 million, with record sales volumes driven by strong demand in North America and major offshore markets [3] - The Nitrogen segment reported sales of $1,260 million, up approximately 23% year over year, surpassing the estimate of $996.5 million, supported by strong demand and higher production [4] - The Phosphate segment generated sales of $396 million, a 1% increase year over year, exceeding the estimate of $362.9 million, despite lower production volumes earlier in the year [5] Financial Overview - At the end of the quarter, NTR had cash and cash equivalents of $1,387 million, a 38% increase year over year, while long-term debt rose nearly 10.7% to $10,405 million [6] - Cash provided by operating activities was reported at $2,538 million for the quarter [6] Guidance and Outlook - The company projects retail adjusted EBITDA for 2025 to be between $1.65 billion and $1.85 billion, anticipating stronger sales in North America and improved conditions in Australia and Brazil [7] - Potash sales volume guidance has been raised to 13.9–14.5 million tons, while nitrogen sales volumes are forecasted at 10.7–11.2 million tons, considering planned turnarounds [8] - Phosphate sales volumes are expected to be between 2.35–2.55 million tons, supported by improved operating rates [9] - Capital expenditures are projected at $2–$2.1 billion, which is below last year's level [9] Price Performance - Nutrien's shares have increased by 22.2% over the past year, outperforming the industry average rise of 15.6% [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q3 2025 was $215 million, an increase of approximately 6% year over year [12] - Operating income improved to $15.9 million from $5.9 million in the prior year [12] - Consolidated net loss decreased to $17 million compared to a net loss of $43.6 million in the prior year [12] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 25% to $41 million, up from $32.8 million a year ago [12][17] - Total net debt as of June 30, 2025, was $746 million, down $116 million or 13% year over year [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Salt business, revenue for Q3 was $166 million, compared to $160.6 million a year ago, with pricing down 1% to approximately $108 per ton and volumes up 4% [13] - Net revenue per ton decreased 1% to $75, while operating earnings per ton increased 4% year over year to $18.2 [13] - In the Plant Nutrition business, revenue for Q3 was $45 million, up 15% year over year from $39 million, with sales volume increasing 1% and pricing down 5% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American highway deicing inventory value and volumes increased sequentially by 27% [14] - As of June, North American highway deicing inventory levels were approximately 50% lower than last year [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a "back to basics" strategy aimed at improving cash flow generation by optimizing business practices and lowering capital intensity [9][10] - The strategy emphasizes value over volume in sales, particularly in the context of the upcoming deicing season [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the progress made in improving the cost structure and productivity at the Ogden plant [7] - The company expects contracted selling prices for the upcoming deicing season to be up 2% to 4% year over year, with committed bid volumes up 3% to 5% [8] - Management noted that the financial position was strengthened by the refinancing and the sale of fortress assets, enhancing liquidity and financial flexibility [9][16] Other Important Information - The company has increased its adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year to $193 million, up from $188 million [17] - Capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged at a range of $75 million to $85 million [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help us understand the pricing and netbacks for the upcoming winter? - Management indicated that the focus is on value over volume and that guidance will be provided after the budgeting process is completed [21] Question: How did the bid season play out compared to expectations? - Management noted that while volumes were up, pricing was in line with historical averages, and the market dynamics were influenced by the previous winter's weather [22][25] Question: What were the unique factors affecting costs in Q3 and Q4? - Management explained that the recovery plan for Plant Nutrition is ongoing, with improvements in production and costs expected to continue [27][30] Question: What are the company's targets for leverage on a normalized EBITDA basis? - Management aims to achieve an investment-grade rating, targeting a debt to EBITDA ratio of around 2.5 [40]