ICL Group (NYSE: ICL) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: ICL Group - **Date of Call**: January 28, 2026 - **Focus**: Agreement with the State of Israel regarding asset valuation and transition process Key Points of the Agreement 1. **Asset Valuation**: The company has agreed on an asset valuation of **$2.54 billion**, with additional investments in the permanent Salt Harvesting Project amounting to **hundreds of millions** [3][4] 2. **Payment Schedule**: - **95%** of the total consideration will be paid on **April 1, 2030** - The remaining **5%** will be paid on **September 1, 2030** [6][7] 3. **No Setoff Rights**: The state will have no right of setoff against the total consideration, which is a critical clause for the company [7][9] 4. **Operational Continuity**: The agreement secures the continued supply of required raw materials for downstream operations until **2035**, ensuring no disruption in bromine compounds and periclase production [7][8] 5. **Profitability Expectations**: The company does not expect a material change in profitability for downstream or concession operations until at least **2035** [8][9] 6. **Future Concession**: The company remains confident in being the leading candidate for the new concession, even without the right of first offer [6][10] Strategic Implications - **Long-term Certainty**: The agreement provides long-term certainty for the company, allowing for effective planning and evaluation of new concession options against other strategic alternatives [4][10] - **Proactive Management**: The company aims to manage the transition process proactively to avoid prolonged arbitration or legal disputes [5][10] Timeline for Future Bidding Process - The government plans to conclude new legislation within **one year**, followed by a pre-qualification phase for bidders [15][29] - The Request for Proposal (RFP) is expected to be released in **2027**, with the goal of selecting the next concession holder by the end of **2027** and allocating the concession by early **2028** [30] Additional Considerations - **National Security Arrangements**: Future limitations may be placed on foreign competitors regarding ownership of concessions, reflecting national security interests [18][20] - **Downstream Supply Alternatives**: The company is preparing for scenarios where it may not be the new concession holder, including developing alternative sourcing options beyond bromine [26][27] Conclusion - The call emphasized the importance of the agreement with the State of Israel, providing clarity and stability for ICL Group as it navigates the transition and prepares for future opportunities in the concession landscape [10][33]

Core Insights - Intrepid Potash, in collaboration with Aquatech International and Adionics SAS, has successfully completed test work to produce battery-grade lithium carbonate from byproduct brine at its Wendover, Utah facility [1][2] Group 1: Lithium Production - The testing achieved a lithium extraction rate of 92.9%, with lithium chloride purity exceeding 99.5% [3] - Aquatech successfully converted the lithium-rich brine to a product with ≥99.5% lithium carbonate purity, meeting specifications for battery manufacturing [4] Group 2: Strategic Developments - The company is progressing towards developing a lithium processing facility in Wendover, leveraging advancements in direct lithium extraction technologies [5] - Intrepid Potash aims to limit capital exposure while focusing on core fertilizer operations, viewing lithium monetization as a means to improve margins at Wendover [6] Group 3: Market Response - Following the announcement, Intrepid Potash's stock increased by 2.85%, with a market capitalization of $382 million [6]

Chinese fertilizer industry groups are urging major producers to suspend exports of phosphate-based farm nutrients https://t.co/PU9PaalG4W ...

Financial Performance - 3Q2025 - Revenues reached US$1,173 million, showing a Q-on-Q increase of 12.5% and a Y-on-Y increase of 9%[7] - Gross Profit was US$346 million, with a Q-on-Q increase of 36% and a Y-on-Y increase of 23%[7] - Earnings per Share reached US$0.62, with a Q-on-Q increase of 50% and a Y-on-Y increase of 36%[7] Lithium Market - Lithium sales volumes increased by 43% year-on-year, despite a 15% decrease in average sales prices[10] - The global lithium market is expected to grow over 20% in 2025[16] - Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) represent more than 20% of the global lithium demand[16] - SQM Lithium's Last Twelve Months (LTM) revenues were US$2,084 million, with a gross profit of US$480 million, holding approximately 17% market share as of December 31, 2024[12,15] Iodine Market - Iodine average sales prices increased by 5%, while sales volumes decreased slightly by 1%[10] - The global iodine market is expected to grow approximately 3% in 2026 compared to 2025[26] - SQM Iodine & Derivatives' LTM revenues were US$996 million, with a gross profit of US$528 million, holding approximately 37% market share as of December 31, 2024[20,25] Potassium Market - Potassium sales volumes decreased significantly by 62%, while average sales prices increased by 30%[10] - SQM Potassium's LTM revenues were US$183 million, with a gross profit of US$17 million, holding less than 1% market share as of December 31, 2024[39,40] Specialty Plant Nutrition (SPN) Market - SQM SPN's LTM revenues were US$957 million, with a gross profit of US$141 million[31] - The global KNO3 market is expected to grow at a normal rate of around 4% in 2025 compared to 2024[34] - SQM holds approximately 41% market share in Specialty Plant Nutrition as of December 31, 2024[36]

Financial Performance - Total sales reached $1.9 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, with specialties-driven sales up by 3%[5] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 4% year-over-year to $398 million[5] - Specialties-driven sales amounted to $1.5 billion, with an EBITDA of $251 million[5] Segment Performance - **Industrial Products:** Sales were $295 million, and EBITDA was $67 million, with a 23% EBITDA margin[8] - **Potash:** Sales increased to $453 million, and EBITDA reached $169 million, with a 37% EBITDA margin; average potash CIF price was $353 per ton[13, 16] - **Phosphate Solutions:** Sales were $605 million, and EBITDA was $134 million, with a 22% EBITDA margin; Phosphate Specialties sales were $348 million with $51 million EBITDA, while Phosphate Commodities sales were $257 million with $83 million EBITDA[19, 21] - **Growing Solutions:** Sales were $561 million, and EBITDA was $50 million, with a 9% EBITDA margin[23] Financial Position - Available cash resources totaled $1.5 billion[40] - Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 1.4x[40] - Quarterly dividend was $62 million, resulting in an annual yield of 2.8%[40] Guidance - The company maintains its full-year 2025 guidance for specialties-driven EBITDA between $0.95 billion and $1.15 billion[45] - Potash sales volumes are expected to be between 4.3 million metric tons and 4.5 million metric tons[45]

Financial Performance - Net sales increased to $155 million in Q3'25 from $109 million in Q3'24[16] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $40 million in Q3'25, compared to $17 million in Q3'24[16] - Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 26% in Q3'25 from 16% in Q3'24[16] - Diluted EPS was $010 in Q3'25, a significant improvement from $(035) in Q3'24[16] Sales and Production - The company saw increased sales volumes of AN (Ammonium Nitrate) and Nitric Acid in Q3'25 compared to Q3'24[8] - UAN (Urea Ammonium Nitrate) sales volumes also increased in Q3'25 compared to Q3'24[8] Market Conditions and Outlook - The company anticipates a strong market outlook for both fertilizer and industrial end markets into 2026[9] - Demand for industrial products is robust, supported by strong gold and copper prices[10, 11] - Strong fertilizer pricing is expected to continue, driven by ammonia supply disruptions and strong demand[13, 15] Balance Sheet and Liquidity - The company's cash and short-term investments totaled $152 million as of September 30, 2025[22] - Total debt was $448 million as of September 30, 2025[22] - Net debt to TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) Adjusted EBITDA was 20X[22]

Cost Analysis - Fertilizer costs represent a significant portion, ranging from 20% to 30%, of the total expenses for producing crops like corn and soybeans [1] - Farmers are increasingly using the bushel-to-ton ratio to assess fertilizer costs relative to potential revenue, rather than solely focusing on the dollar price per ton [3] - For example, with corn at approximately $4.60 per bushel and URA at $400 per ton, a farmer would need to sell about 84 bushels of corn to purchase one ton of URA [4] - Similarly, with soybeans at roughly $10.70 per bushel, it would take about 36 bushels of soybeans to purchase one ton of URA [5] Risk Management & Market Dynamics - Fertilizer needs and prices are influenced year-round by factors such as weather, crop quality, market dynamics, and river levels [2] - Late-season weather events or forecasts for lower-quality harvests can prompt farmers to consider additional fertilizer applications [3] Hedging Opportunities - CME Group's introduction of a smaller 10-ton URA US Gulf futures contract provides farmers with a new opportunity to hedge fertilizer costs [6]

Shares of fertilizer company Mosaic dropped as operational issues at phosphate plants hit production, adding pressure to a segment already suffering from US tariffs https://t.co/Y7jMJwQcMm ...

Group 1 - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching more than 1000 companies across various sectors including commodities and technology [1] - The focus has shifted from writing a blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, covering hundreds of companies [1] - The analyst expresses a particular interest in metals and mining stocks, while also being comfortable with consumer discretionary, REITs, and utilities [1]

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest person, concluded a multibillion-dollar deal with Ethiopia to build a fertilizer plant that will help transform the nation’s farm-dependent economy https://t.co/RRQHmCbPaH ...