Is inflation on the rise once more? It's hard to know the true inflation landscape with both a change in Federal data reporting and the government shutdown. Still, last month produced a concerning combination of soft jobs data and stubborn inflation. This past week, the New York Federal Reserve pointed out rising short- term inflation as well as an increase in one-year horizon inflation. All of these factors may speak to the case for inflation-sensitive natural resources that historically benefit from risin ...

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Core Insights - Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) reported profits of $1,229 million or $2.50 per share for Q2 2025, a significant increase from $392 million or 78 cents in the same quarter last year, with adjusted earnings per share at $2.65, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.40 [1] - Sales rose approximately 2.8% year over year to $10,438 million, although this figure fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10,610.1 million [1] Segment Highlights - The Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) segment saw a 1% decline in sales year over year, totaling $7,959 million, missing the estimate of $8,591.6 million [2] - The Potash division experienced a 31% year-over-year sales increase, reaching $991 million, exceeding the estimate of $677.8 million, with record sales volumes driven by strong demand in North America and major offshore markets [3] - The Nitrogen segment reported sales of $1,260 million, up approximately 23% year over year, surpassing the estimate of $996.5 million, supported by strong demand and higher production [4] - The Phosphate segment generated sales of $396 million, a 1% increase year over year, exceeding the estimate of $362.9 million, despite lower production volumes earlier in the year [5] Financial Overview - At the end of the quarter, NTR had cash and cash equivalents of $1,387 million, a 38% increase year over year, while long-term debt rose nearly 10.7% to $10,405 million [6] - Cash provided by operating activities was reported at $2,538 million for the quarter [6] Guidance and Outlook - The company projects retail adjusted EBITDA for 2025 to be between $1.65 billion and $1.85 billion, anticipating stronger sales in North America and improved conditions in Australia and Brazil [7] - Potash sales volume guidance has been raised to 13.9–14.5 million tons, while nitrogen sales volumes are forecasted at 10.7–11.2 million tons, considering planned turnarounds [8] - Phosphate sales volumes are expected to be between 2.35–2.55 million tons, supported by improved operating rates [9] - Capital expenditures are projected at $2–$2.1 billion, which is below last year's level [9] Price Performance - Nutrien's shares have increased by 22.2% over the past year, outperforming the industry average rise of 15.6% [11]

Financial Performance Highlights - Nutrien's upstream NPK sales volumes reached 139 million tonnes in the first half of 2025[14] - Retail expenses decreased by 6%[14] - Capital expenditures decreased by 18% from $879 million to $724 million[12] - Share buybacks increased by 49% from $253 million to $527 million[12] Retail Segment - Q2 2025 Retail Adjusted EBITDA increased from $1128 million to $1149 million[17] - Q2 2025 YTD Retail Adjusted EBITDA decreased from $1205 million to $1195 million[23] Potash Segment - Q2 2025 Potash sales volumes increased by 12% from 36 million tonnes to 40 million tonnes[29] - Q2 2025 YTD Potash sales volumes increased by 6% from 70 million tonnes to 74 million tonnes[36] - Q2 2025 average net selling price increased by 17% from $212/mt to $248/mt[29] - Q2 2025 YTD average net selling price increased by 4% from $225/mt to $235/mt[36] Nitrogen Segment - Q2 2025 Nitrogen sales volumes increased by 7% from 282 million tonnes to 302 million tonnes[42] - Q2 2025 YTD Nitrogen sales volumes increased by 3% from 533 million tonnes to 549 million tonnes[48] - Q2 2025 average net selling price increased by 13% from $343/mt to $387/mt[42] - Q2 2025 YTD average net selling price increased by 9% from $335/mt to $365/mt[48] Guidance - The company increased its 2025 full-year Potash sales volume guidance range from 136-144 million tonnes to 139-145 million tonnes[53]

Core Insights - Nutrien reported revenue of $10.44 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, a year-over-year increase of 2.8% and an EPS of $2.65 compared to $2.34 a year ago, indicating positive growth in earnings [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.61 billion, resulting in a surprise of -1.62%, while the EPS exceeded expectations by +10.42% against a consensus estimate of $2.40 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Potash sales volumes reached 3,989 KTon, surpassing the average estimate of 3,613.10 KTon [4] - Nitrogen sales volumes totaled 3,017 KTon, exceeding the average estimate of 2,947.19 KTon [4] - The average selling price per tonne for phosphate (industrial and feed) was $821.00, higher than the estimated $754.85 [4] - Retail sales (Nutrient Ag Solutions) amounted to $7.96 billion, below the estimated $8.4 billion, reflecting a -1.4% change year-over-year [4] - Nitrogen sales were reported at $1.41 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $1.25 billion, representing a +19% year-over-year change [4] - Phosphate sales were $449 million, slightly above the average estimate of $436.29 million, with a year-over-year change of -0.4% [4] - Potash sales reached $1.09 billion, surpassing the average estimate of $892.38 million, indicating a +29.8% year-over-year change [4] - Net sales for potash were $991 million, exceeding the average estimate of $794.77 million, reflecting a +31.1% year-over-year change [4] - Net sales for nitrogen were $1.26 billion, above the average estimate of $1.08 billion, representing a +22.6% change year-over-year [4] - Net sales for phosphate were $396 million, slightly below the average estimate of $418.63 million, with a +0.5% year-over-year change [4] Stock Performance - Nutrien's shares have returned -3.7% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.5% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nutrien (NTR) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.40 per share, a 2.6% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $10.61 billion, reflecting a 4.5% year-over-year growth [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 14.2%, indicating analysts' reassessment of their initial forecasts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions to the stock, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts project 'Sales- Retail (Nutrient Ag Solutions)- Total' to reach $8.40 billion, a year-over-year increase of 4.1% [5]. - The consensus estimate for 'Sales- Nitrogen' is $1.25 billion, indicating a 4.9% increase from the previous year [5]. - 'Sales- Potash' is estimated at $892.38 million, reflecting a 6.7% year-over-year change [5]. - 'Sales- Phosphate' is expected to be $436.29 million, showing a decline of 3.3% from the prior year [6]. Sales Volumes - 'Potash - Sales volumes - Total' is projected at 3,613 thousand tons, up from 3,563 thousand tons year-over-year [6]. - 'Nitrogen - Sales volumes - Total' is expected to reach 2,947 thousand tons, compared to 2,818 thousand tons in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Phosphate - Sales volumes - Total' is forecasted at 575 thousand tons, down from 584 thousand tons year-over-year [8]. - 'Potash - Sales volumes - North America' is estimated at 1,004 thousand tons, compared to 914 thousand tons in the same quarter last year [9]. - 'Nitrogen - Sales volumes - Ammonia' is projected to be 738 thousand tons, up from 698 thousand tons year-over-year [10]. Price Projections - The average selling price per tonne for 'Phosphate - Industrial and feed' is expected to be $755, down from $830 year-over-year [7]. - The average selling price per tonne for 'Phosphate - Total' is projected at $651, compared to $667 in the previous year [8]. Stock Performance - Nutrien shares have decreased by 1.4% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 2.3% [11].

Group 1 - Linde plc has entered a long-term agreement to supply industrial gases to Blue Point Number One, a joint venture for a low-carbon ammonia plant in Louisiana, which will produce 1.4 million metric tons of low-carbon ammonia annually [1][5] - Linde will invest over $400 million to build and operate a new air separation unit (ASU) for the Blue Point project, expected to be the largest along the Mississippi River corridor, with operations starting in 2029 [2][8] - The new ASU will be Linde's third advanced unit supporting an autothermal reforming ammonia plant, enhancing its industrial gas network in a region with increasing demand for decarbonization and clean energy [3] Group 2 - Stakeholders, including CF Industries' COO, emphasize Linde's critical role in establishing a reliable low-carbon ammonia supply chain, highlighting its expertise [4] - The Blue Point ammonia facility is positioned to significantly contribute to the global demand for clean ammonia, which is essential for decarbonizing energy and industrial sectors [5]

Company Overview - Nutrien Ltd. is the world's largest fertilizer producer and has a significant farm center business, with a strong influence in potash and nitrogen markets [1]. Market Outlook - The company has a positive outlook for 2025, indicating robust demand for crop inputs during the North American spring season, with approximately 95 million acres of corn expected to be planted in the U.S. [6]. - Strong field activity and planting progress reports from the U.S. suggest a healthy demand environment for Nutrien's products [6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Nutrien is experiencing favorable supply-demand dynamics across all three key nutrients: potash, nitrogen, and phosphate, leading to firming prices in these markets [7].

Core Insights - Nutrien Ltd. reported a profit of $19 million or 2 cents per share for Q1 2025, a significant decline from $165 million or 32 cents in the same quarter last year [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were 11 cents, down from 46 cents a year ago, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 33 cents [1] - Sales fell approximately 5.4% year over year to $5,100 million, also below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,322.3 million [1] Segment Performance - Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) segment sales decreased by 7% year over year to $3,090 million, missing the estimate of $4,076.6 million [2] - Potash division sales declined by 8% year over year to $744 million, exceeding the estimate of $501.4 million [3] - Nitrogen segment sales were $954 million, up around 5% year over year, beating the estimate of $671.9 million [4] - Phosphate segment sales fell by approximately 18% year over year to $360 million, surpassing the estimate of $253.6 million [5] Financial Overview - At the end of the quarter, Nutrien had cash and cash equivalents of $895 million, an increase of about 80.4% year over year [6] - Long-term debt rose to $10,908 million, up nearly 22.4% year over year [6] Guidance - The company reiterated its 2025 guidance, expecting retail adjusted EBITDA to range from $1.65 billion to $1.85 billion [7] - Sales volumes are projected to be between 13.6-14.4 million tons of potash, 10.7-11.2 million tons of nitrogen, and 2.35-2.55 million tons of phosphate [7] - Depreciation and amortization are expected to total between $2.35 billion and $2.45 billion, with finance costs projected to range from $0.65 billion to $0.75 billion [7] Stock Performance - Nutrien's shares have decreased by 1.4% over the past year, contrasting with a 7.5% increase in the industry [8]

Core Insights - Nutrien reported a revenue of $5.1 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a 5.4% decline year-over-year and a surprise of -4.18% compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.32 billion [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) was $0.11, significantly lower than the $0.46 reported in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of -66.67% against the consensus estimate of $0.33 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Nutrien's stock has returned +20.5% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +10.6% change, and currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [3] - Potash sales volumes totaled 3,402 KTon, exceeding the five-analyst average estimate of 3,255.3 KTon [4] - Nitrogen sales volumes were reported at 2,469 KTon, slightly below the five-analyst average estimate of 2,473.23 KTon [4] - The average selling price per tonne for phosphate (industrial and feed) was $817, surpassing the five-analyst average estimate of $777.8 [4] - Total sales for Retail (Nutrient Ag Solutions) were $3.09 billion, lower than the $3.49 billion estimated by six analysts, marking a -6.6% change year-over-year [4] - Potash sales amounted to $861 million, exceeding the six-analyst average estimate of $783.90 million, but reflecting a -7.1% year-over-year change [4] - Phosphate sales were reported at $405 million, below the $435.19 million estimated by six analysts, representing an -18.8% change year-over-year [4] - Nitrogen sales reached $1.07 billion, surpassing the six-analyst average estimate of $972.08 million, with a year-over-year increase of +4.5% [4] - Net sales for Potash were $744 million, exceeding the five-analyst average estimate of $665.54 million, but showing an -8.5% year-over-year change [4] - Net sales for Nitrogen were reported at $954 million, above the $848.02 million estimated by five analysts, reflecting a +4.7% year-over-year change [4] - Retail sales for crop nutrients were $1.19 billion, significantly lower than the $1.61 billion estimated by four analysts, indicating an -8.8% year-over-year change [4]