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Regulatory Delays and Weakening Margins Weigh on Morgan Stanley’s ADM Outlook
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-02 23:13
Core Viewpoint - Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE:ADM) faces challenges due to regulatory delays and weakening margins, leading to a downgrade by Morgan Stanley from Equal Weight to Underweight with a reduced price target of $50 from $57 [2]. Financial Performance - ADM shares have increased over 15% since early 2025, but this rally lacks support from earnings momentum [3]. - The company's profit in the agricultural services and oilseed segment dropped 21% in Q3 to $379 million, primarily due to a 93% decline in crushing profits [4]. - ADM has lowered its 2025 profit outlook for the third consecutive quarter, now expecting adjusted earnings of $3.25 to $3.50 per share, down from an earlier forecast of about $4.00 and below analysts' estimate of $3.79 [5]. Market Conditions - Ongoing uncertainty regarding US biofuel policy and global trade disruptions have negatively impacted oilseed crush margins, affecting ADM and other agribusiness firms [3]. - The company is experiencing steady pressure from ample global crop supplies and volatile commodity markets, which continue to squeeze profitability [3].