Core Viewpoint - China's factory activity showed unexpected growth in December, ending an eight-month decline, driven by pre-holiday orders as officials aim to stimulate the manufacturing sector without exacerbating deflation [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) increased to 50.1 in December from 49.2 in November, surpassing the 50-point threshold that indicates growth and exceeding the forecast of 49.2 [2]. - The production sub-index rose to 51.7 from 50.0 in November, while new orders increased to 50.8 from 49.2, marking the strongest performance since March [4]. - Supplier delivery times improved, leading to a rise in the production and activity expectations component to 55.5, the highest since March 2024 [4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - New export orders remained weak, increasing slightly to 49.0 from 47.6 in November, highlighting the necessity for officials to enhance domestic demand and reduce reliance on U.S. demand [5]. - Confidence in the manufacturing sector appears to be improving due to pre-holiday stockpiling, particularly in the agricultural, food processing, and food and beverage sectors [6]. Group 3: Challenges and Outlook - Despite the positive PMI data, experts suggest that the improvement may be short-lived, driven by month-to-month fiscal spending fluctuations rather than a sustained recovery, with structural challenges from the property downturn and industrial overcapacity expected to persist into 2026 [3]. - Domestic demand remains depressed, as indicated by a 13.1% year-on-year decline in profits for Chinese industrial firms in November, the steepest drop in over a year, suggesting that households are not compensating for the shortfall amid a slowing global economy [7].

Core Insights - Inflationary pressures are moderating, leading to a return of price stability in markets, which is beneficial for many companies as they face lower input costs and improving profit margins heading into 2026 [1][2] Sector Analysis Consumer Staples - The consumer staples sector is poised for growth as key commodity input costs related to agricultural products, such as dairy, sugar, vegetable oils, and grains, decline [3] - Food processors and packaged-goods manufacturers are regaining margins that were previously compressed due to high input inflation [4] Capital Goods and Manufacturing - Capital goods and manufacturing companies are expected to benefit from easing inflation, particularly those that consume energy and commodities, such as chemical and heavy machinery producers [5] - Lower prices for petroleum-based inputs and industrial metals are reducing project costs and improving returns on new capital investments [5] Airlines and Logistics - Airlines and logistics companies are classic beneficiaries of easing price pressures, as fuel costs, a major operating expense, are declining [6] - Companies like Delta Air Lines and FedEx are well-positioned for margin expansion as economic activity normalizes, with fuel savings directly impacting their bottom lines [7] Company Highlights United Natural Foods (UNFI) - UNFI is regaining margins as inflation cools, with a projected revenue increase of 1% and a significant EPS increase of 187.3% for fiscal 2026 compared to the previous year [10] - The company has improved its gross margin by approximately 20 basis points year over year due to better procurement conditions [9] FedEx Corp. (FDX) - FedEx is undergoing a cost realignment initiative that resulted in $2.2 billion in annual cost savings, positioning it for margin recovery as inflation pressures fade [11] - The company is expected to see a revenue increase of 4.6% for fiscal 2026, with operating margin expansion driven by lower fuel expenses and structural cost reductions [12] LATAM Airlines Group (LTM) - LATAM Airlines is benefiting from a lean cost structure and improved air travel demand, with a projected revenue increase of 10.1% and EPS increase of 17.8% for 2026 [16] - The company achieved an adjusted operating margin of 18.1% in Q3 2025, supported by a decline in jet fuel expenses [15] Conclusion - The analysis indicates that companies in consumer staples, logistics, and transportation sectors are well-positioned to leverage declining input costs to restore margins and enhance financial performance as inflation eases [19]

Core Viewpoint - Agrial and Terrena are proposing a merger to create a combined entity with pro-forma sales exceeding €12 billion ($14.15 billion) [1] Group 1: Merger Details - The merger aims to address challenges faced by farmers, including production development, competitiveness, generational renewal, and sustainable transition [2][3] - Agrial generated a turnover of €7.1 billion last year, while Terrena reported a turnover of €5.6 billion in 2024 [3][4] - The proposed deal will be voted on by the members of both cooperatives at general meetings [4] Group 2: Strategic Rationale - The merger is intended to strengthen the cooperative model around resilient animal and plant sectors and enhance competitiveness across market segments [5] - By pooling expertise and innovation, the merger aims to tackle climate change, energy transition, and promote healthy and sustainable food [6]