GOAL KICKSTART Back to Bullish – Risk Appetite Indicator at highest levels since 2021 Our Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) remained elevated despite more policy and geopolitical uncertainty last week and reached new highs of 1.09 on Thursday (Exhibit 1). This is the highest level since 2021, the 98th percentile since 1991. The risk-on repricing YTD has been broad, with 17 out of the 27 inputs of the RAI above 0.8 in z-score terms (Exhibit 2). The most bullish components have been the Small vs. Large cap, EM vs ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the US equity markets and macroeconomic conditions leading up to the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting - The current environment is characterized by a resilient risk appetite despite headwinds from interest rates Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Performance**: US equity markets closed higher last week, supported by dovish expectations from the Fed. The Risk Appetite Indicator reached 0.66, marking the largest two-week increase since May [1][7] 2. **Mixed Macro Data**: - ISM manufacturing index fell for the ninth consecutive month - ADP reported the largest one-month drop in employment since March 2023 - ISM services index showed improvement - Core PCE inflation rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.83% year-over-year - Initial jobless claims decreased to 191k, below expectations [1] 3. **Upcoming Economic Reports**: Key data releases include the JOLTS report and the employment cost index, with expectations of 7,100k and a 0.8% increase respectively [1] 4. **Volatility in Q4**: Following a 'Goldilocks' backdrop of growth optimism and dovish Fed expectations, markets have experienced increased volatility in Q4, particularly in tech-heavy indices like Nasdaq [2] 5. **Bond Yields**: There has been upward pressure on bond yields, especially in Japan and Germany, with the 30-year JGB yield reaching 3.4%, a rise of approximately 110 basis points year-to-date [2][9] 6. **Central Bank Divergence**: The dispersion in G10 central bank pricing has widened, with more banks now anticipating rate hikes in 2026 [2][13] 7. **Investment Strategy**: The company maintains a modestly pro-risk stance into 2026, favoring equities over bonds, commodities, and cash, while underweighting credit [3][6] 8. **Market Expectations for Rate Cuts**: The market is pricing in a 55% probability of more than two rate cuts in the next 12 months [6][17] Additional Important Insights - **Sector Performance**: Growth-sensitive segments, particularly cyclicals and the Russell 2000, have shown strong performance recently [2][15] - **Global Economic Sentiment**: The sentiment indicators suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook among investors, with a notable focus on diversification and hedging strategies [3][27] - **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: The report includes specific asset allocation recommendations, indicating overweight positions in equities and underweight in corporate bonds [20] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the US equity markets, macroeconomic indicators, and strategic investment insights.

Market Overview - Global financial markets experienced subdued trading activity with minimal changes across major indices, currencies, and commodities, indicating a lack of significant market-moving news [2] - U.S. equity indices showed a slight downward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closing at 47920, down 0.04%, and the NASDAQ (IXIC) declining 0.17% to 25651, marking the largest percentage drop among reported indices [3] - European markets displayed mixed results, with the German DAX (DAX) down 0.01% to 24039, while the French CAC 40 (CAC) gained 0.02% to 8117, and the UK's FTSE 100 (FTSE) remained unchanged at 9660 [3] Asian Markets - Asian markets showed a slightly positive trend, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) increasing by 0.03% to 26076 and Australia's ASX 200 (ASX) climbing 0.02% to 8607 [4] Commodity Markets - In the commodity markets, crude oil prices saw a notable increase, with USOIL appreciating by 0.21% to 6010, suggesting a slight rise in demand or tighter supply expectations [5][8] - Gold prices also experienced a modest gain of 0.04%, reaching 4200, indicating a slight uptick in safe-haven appeal amidst a generally quiet market [5][8] Currency Markets - The foreign exchange market saw the EURUSD pair dip by 0.06% to 11636, reflecting a minor weakening of the euro against the U.S. dollar [5][8]