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澳大利亚保险集团(IAG):澳大利亚保险集团向西进发
Ubs Securities· 2025-05-16 05:45
Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating for Insurance Australia Group (IAG) from Buy to Neutral, reflecting moderate value upside from the recent acquisition of RAC Insurance [2][6]. Core Views - IAG's acquisition of RAC Insurance is strategically and financially attractive, adding approximately 8% to IAG's Gross Written Premium (GWP) and increasing its market share in Western Australia (WA) from 8% to about 55% in Home and Motor insurance, pending ACCC approval [2][4][13]. - The total upfront consideration for the acquisition is A$1,350 million, which is internally funded and implies an annualized price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.7x for 1H25, increasing to 10.8x post distribution costs [2][15]. - The deal is expected to be 6-10% accretive to earnings per share (EPS) post-synergies, with targeted synergies of A$100 million anticipated [3][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Metrics - IAG's FY25E EPS is revised up by 1.6%, FY26E remains flat, and FY27E is increased by 5.2%, reflecting better-than-expected catastrophe (CAT) outcomes and the incorporation of RAC Insurance from FY27E [5][28]. - The report estimates IAG's FY27E PE at 18x, which is considered fair value, with a price target raised to A$9.30 per share from A$8.30 [5][6]. Market Position - The acquisition will significantly enhance IAG's market position in WA, with RACI being the largest Home/Motor insurer in the region, holding approximately 47% market share [4][18]. - Post-acquisition, IAG's combined market share in WA is projected to reach around 55%, with 66% in Motor and 42% in Home insurance [20][21]. Profitability and Valuation - RACI's profitability metrics indicate a reported combined operating ratio (COR) of 84% and an insurance trading result (ITR) margin of 17.8% in 1H25, suggesting strong underlying performance [19][17]. - The report highlights that the targeted synergies from the acquisition are expected to outweigh the amortization charges associated with the distribution agreement [19][15].