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油脂油料早报-20260108
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to increase in different ranges in the weeks ending January 1, 2026 [1]. - The average institutional expectation for US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2026, is 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase from the same period last year, reaching the highest level since 2019 [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to reach a record - high of 112 million tons, with a forecast of 24 million tons of soybean meal exports. However, exports to China may decrease by 10 million tons compared to 2025 [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreased by 4.64% month - on - month. The 2025/26 annual production is expected to increase, with end - of - period inventory decreasing [1]. - Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 51.2 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales in the week ending January 1, 2026, are expected to net increase by 7.5 - 16 million tons, with 7.5 - 13 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 3 million tons for the 2026 - 27 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 1 - 3.5 million tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0 - 0.3 million tons [1]. - The average institutional expectation for US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2026, is 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase from the same period last year, the highest since 2019. The USDA will release the quarterly grain inventory report on January 13, 2026 (Beijing time) [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to reach a record - high of 112 million tons, with exports to China expected to be 77 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from 2025. Brazil is also expected to export 24 million tons of soybean meal in 2026 [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons. The 2025/26 annual production is expected to be 19.7 million tons, with total supply of 22.56 million tons, exports of about 16.2 million tons, and end - of - period inventory decreasing from 2.36 million tons to 2.16 million tons [1]. - A commodity survey shows that Malaysia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 19.6 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous forecast. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 51.2 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented in a table, showing price fluctuations during this period [5].
油脂油料早报-20260106
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 01:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean export inspection and sales data show a mixed performance, with export inspection volume in line with expectations and sales showing different growth trends compared to previous periods [1] - The Brazilian soybean production forecast has been raised, and the 2025 export volume reached a record high, while the Malaysian palm - oil inventory is expected to reach a near - seven - year high due to strong production [1] 3. Summary by Related Content US Soybean Export Data - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 980,518 tons, in line with the market forecast of 750,000 - 1,150,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 397,069 tons, accounting for 40.5% of the total. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year is 16,401,241 tons, compared with 29,967,442 tons in the same period of the previous year [1] - For the week ending December 25, 2025, the net increase in US current - market - year soybean export sales was 117.77 million tons, a 19% increase from the previous week and a 20% decrease from the four - week average. The net increase in next - year's export sales was 6.64 million tons. The export shipment was 122 million tons, a 43% increase from the previous week and a 47% increase from the four - week average [1] US Soybean Meal Export Data - For the week ending December 25, 2025, the net increase in US current - market - year soybean meal export sales was 11.06 million tons, a 63% decrease from the previous week and a 73% decrease from the four - week average. The net increase in next - year's export sales was 4.18 million tons. The export shipment was 26.08 million tons, a 34% decrease from the previous week and a 25% decrease from the four - week average [1] Brazilian Soybean Data - Brazilian consulting firm StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to 177.6 million tons, a 0.2% increase from its December forecast and a 5.2% increase from the previous year, due to higher yields in Mato Grosso and favorable December weather [1] - BiondAgro also predicted a record - high Brazilian crop yield of 176.85 million tons [1] - Cargonave data showed that Brazil's 2025 soybean export volume reached a record high of 108.68 million tons, an 11.7% increase from 2024, and the soybean meal export volume also reached a record high, exceeding 23.07 million tons [1] Malaysian Palm - oil Data - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm - oil product export volume in December 2025 was 1,000,703 tons, a 28.40% increase from the previous month [1] - A survey showed that Malaysia's December 2025 palm - oil inventory is expected to reach a near - seven - year high of 2.97 million tons, a 4.7% increase from November, due to strong monthly production. The crude palm - oil production is expected to be 1.76 million tons, the highest since December 2018, although it decreased by 9% from the previous month. Palm - oil product exports are expected to increase by 2.8% to 1.25 million tons [1] Indonesian Palm - oil Data - Indonesia's statistics showed that from January to November 2025, the country exported 20.85 million tons of crude and refined palm - oil, a 4.32% increase from the previous year, with a total export value of 21.63 billion US dollars. In November, the export volume was 1.36 million tons, a nearly 29% decrease from the previous year [1] Spot Price Data - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm - oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are provided, showing certain price fluctuations [1]
油脂油料早报-20251215
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 01:13
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The U.S. soybean crush volume in November 2025 is expected to decline by 3.2% from October's record high but increase by 14.0% from November 2024 [1]. - The estimated soybean oil inventory of NOPA members as of November 30, 2025, is expected to reach a seven - month high, up 7.9% from the end of October and 29.9% from the previous year [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, the U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, with 0 tons for 2026 - 27 [1]. - The 2025/26 global soybean export volume is expected to increase mainly driven by Brazil, while the exports of the U.S. and Argentina may decline [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 46.98% compared to the same period last month [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Overnight Market Information - U.S. November 2025 soybean crush volume is estimated to be 220.285 million bushels, with an estimated range of 213 million to 224.332 million bushels and a median of 220.85 million bushels [1]. - As of November 30, 2025, NOPA's soybean oil inventory is expected to be 1.408 billion pounds, with an estimated range of 1.32 billion to 1.508 billion pounds and a median of 1.4 billion pounds [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean meal export sales by 10 - 45 million tons, and 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean oil export sales by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1]. - In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 110 million tons, up 6.7% from 2024/25, and production is expected to reach 178.3 million tons, up 4.1% from the previous year [1]. - In 2025/26, the U.S. soybean exports are expected to be 43 million tons, down 14% from 2024/25, and Argentina's soybean exports are likely to decline due to reduced production and increased crush volume [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the same period last month [1]. Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].